Friday 1 March 2013

Is it Time to Give Up on Italy?

You may remember that about two years ago the Italians ruined their economy leading to the worst recession since the 1930's and creating very real fears of bankruptcy. As Italy is part of the Eurozone it was at this point that the European Union (EU) strongly suggested that Silvio Berlusconi step aside and allow someone vaguely competent run the country. After a year in which Mario Monti made significant progress the Italians threw a tantrum and demanded their right to democracy.

Over this past weekend (24-25/2/13) the Italians were given their democracy in the form of a general election. They proceeded to f*ck it spectacularly. 30% voted for Silvio 'sex pest' Berlusconi whose years of misrule caused the Italian financial crisis in the first place. A further 25% voted for Beppe Grillo a failed comedian who has no political experience and whose main policy is to simply refuse to pay Italy's debts because that worked so well for Argentina. Fortunately amid all this stupidity Pier Lugi Bersani's centre left coalition was able to gain a majority in the lower house (Chamber of Deputies). Unfortunately in the upper house (Senate) spoils were evenly spread with Five Star Movement having to learn to shut up and side with either the Bersani coalition of the Berlusconi coalition. In the meantime the country is ungoverned and Mont's economic program has been halted.

Personally my favourite bit was the death of that 13 year old British Sikh school girl on an Italian ski-lift last Friday (22/2/13). I think this was clear British support for Berlusconi by it being seen that someone has at least asked him the question of exactly how young does he think is too young?

If you ignore the fact that the EU is by far the US' largest export market (The Sterling Plunge) this would be great geo-political news for the US. However the US Republican Party have decided that now would be the perfect time to force the US economy into the sequester. Initially this is USD85bn of cuts to government spending although as time passes it gets worse growing to around USD1trillion in spending cuts. Although I will agree that the devil is in the detail this initial cut will shave around 0.6% off the US' economic growth in 2013 and has already had a negative impact on US employment rates as companies stop hiring and furlough notices go out.

Curiously it is against this back drop that the US' Dow Jones Industrial index has reached close to it's all time high. So I can't help but feeling somebodies going to be doing very well out of all this but sadly I doubt it will be the average American voter.

20:50 on 1/3/13.

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