Today (30/6/12) Mohamed Morsi was formally sworn in as Egypt's first popularly elected President. I suppose I should start by apologise for crashing the ceremony this morning. I should also point out that I've not being ignoring the event - I'm just trying to be deliberately vague. That's because while I would have prefered a secular candidate to win I don't have any real problem with President Morsi.
However it is worth pointing out that with only 50.15% of voters taking part in the Presidential run-off Morsi's victory with 51.75% means that he only actually recieved 25.9% of the popular vote. That is significantly less then all secular candidates excluding Ahmed Shafik recieved in the first round. So it is fair to say that the Egyptian people most certainly have not given President Morsi a mandate to pursue an Islamist agenda. That is something he will be well served to remember.
Saturday, 30 June 2012
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 4, Day 3.
Today (30/6/12) the newly formed Syria Action Group (SAG) made up of; The United Nations (UN), The League of Arab States (Arab League/LAS), China, France, Russia, the UK, the US, Turkey Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the European Union (EU) held it's first meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. It produced a communique which is still trying to find it's way onto the Internet.
The purpose of the meeting was for the group to agree on a mechanism for political transition in Syria. This roadmap would then be presented to the Syrian government for consideration. This meeting doesn't seem to have achieved much instead waffling on for ages about women's rights which although important aren't really a priority with 180 people killed in fighting in Syria yesterday (29/6/12). As always the main sticking point was the LAS, France, the UK, the US, Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the EU's insistence on regime change. This is something that all international law forbids them from pursuing so it would really help things along if they stopped wasting everybody's time. Russia's claim to be taking a principled stand would also be significantly strengthend if they made it more clear that regime change is a red line.
On the day that Egypt's new President was sworn into office I think that it's worth noting that because it's re-written it's consitution and elected a new Parliament on a technical level Syria is actually further down the road to political reform the either Egypt or Libya. It's just the war that's slowing things down. So I guess the question is does the SAG and the Syrian opposition want to change the system or do they simply want to kill the President?
The purpose of the meeting was for the group to agree on a mechanism for political transition in Syria. This roadmap would then be presented to the Syrian government for consideration. This meeting doesn't seem to have achieved much instead waffling on for ages about women's rights which although important aren't really a priority with 180 people killed in fighting in Syria yesterday (29/6/12). As always the main sticking point was the LAS, France, the UK, the US, Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the EU's insistence on regime change. This is something that all international law forbids them from pursuing so it would really help things along if they stopped wasting everybody's time. Russia's claim to be taking a principled stand would also be significantly strengthend if they made it more clear that regime change is a red line.
On the day that Egypt's new President was sworn into office I think that it's worth noting that because it's re-written it's consitution and elected a new Parliament on a technical level Syria is actually further down the road to political reform the either Egypt or Libya. It's just the war that's slowing things down. So I guess the question is does the SAG and the Syrian opposition want to change the system or do they simply want to kill the President?
Ok That's News.
Last night (29/6/12) my sister had some sort of pyschotic incident at her home in Guilford that involved the police placing her under a 72 hour psychiatric hold. Today (30/6/12) at around 10:00 this led to my father and I getting a visit from two dectectives from Surrey police's vulnerable people (abuse victims) team fishing for information about my sister's condition and possible triggers.
This is unusual because my sister's long history of psychological problems means that she is under the care of a local psychiatric team who have an in-depth knowledge of her medical history. It is also unusal because it's well established in my sisters case history that my mother not my father is her emergency contact/next of kin as soon as possible.
As they always are the police were being vague as to what their purpose was. However my best guess is that someone has said something to trigger an abuse investigation into my father. If that is the case then it should be combined with my grandmother's case and handed to the Metropolitian police's war crimes or anti-corruption division.
As it happened I got my cellphone out to speak to my mother and the police made their excuses and left around 10:45. So anyway how is this contact group meeting on Syria going?
Edited at around 13:00 on 30/6/12 to add:
The police have decided that there's no need to speak to my sister's next of kin (my mother) and have instead gone back to Guilford. My father's spoken to my sister and apart from some minor, superficial injuries which are not as bad as the cuts bruises etc that you've probably got now there's nothing wrong her and she'll be released from hospital this evening. So the entire thing seems to have been contrived by the local network in Guildford to influence today's meeting on Syria.
So I hope the participants of the Syria meeting are enjoying themselves because like everything else Britain is involved in this is creating quite a serious death toll.
This is unusual because my sister's long history of psychological problems means that she is under the care of a local psychiatric team who have an in-depth knowledge of her medical history. It is also unusal because it's well established in my sisters case history that my mother not my father is her emergency contact/next of kin as soon as possible.
As they always are the police were being vague as to what their purpose was. However my best guess is that someone has said something to trigger an abuse investigation into my father. If that is the case then it should be combined with my grandmother's case and handed to the Metropolitian police's war crimes or anti-corruption division.
As it happened I got my cellphone out to speak to my mother and the police made their excuses and left around 10:45. So anyway how is this contact group meeting on Syria going?
Edited at around 13:00 on 30/6/12 to add:
The police have decided that there's no need to speak to my sister's next of kin (my mother) and have instead gone back to Guilford. My father's spoken to my sister and apart from some minor, superficial injuries which are not as bad as the cuts bruises etc that you've probably got now there's nothing wrong her and she'll be released from hospital this evening. So the entire thing seems to have been contrived by the local network in Guildford to influence today's meeting on Syria.
So I hope the participants of the Syria meeting are enjoying themselves because like everything else Britain is involved in this is creating quite a serious death toll.
Friday, 29 June 2012
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 4, Day 2.
I should really start by explaining one of the reasons why I refer to the Syrian insurgents as the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA). Using their given name the "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) they share an acronym with Britain's financial regulator the "Finacial Services Authority." On Wednesday (27/6/12) the FSA fined Britain's Barclays Bank for causing a number of the banking collapses (Northern Rock, RBS etc) during the 2008 credit crunch by rigging the benchmark London Inter-Bank Over-night Rate [of interest] (LIBOR). This shared aronym along with the complexity of the two issues seems to have played a significant role in the European Union's (EU) negotiations that led to today's (29/6/12) stinker of a decision to allow the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to bailout Eurozone banks directly. Britain of course intends to use this needless further EU intergration to fuel anti-EU feeling within the northern nations.
However pretending for a moment that events in Syria have anything to do with Syria;
On Tuesday (26/6/12) Turkey convened a NATO meeting under article 4 of the Washington Treaty. The overt aim of the meeting was to determine whether last Friday's (22/6/12) shooting down of a Turkish military jet over Syria by the Syrian government constituted a Syrian attack on Turkey of the sort that would trigger NATO's mutual defence agreement (article 5). As the incident was clearly Syria defending itself from Turkish aggression NATO quickly decided that the article 5 conditions had not been met. This outcome was so obvious that not even Turkey was expecting an article 5 response. Instead they were trying to re-open the old argument about what level of support NATO would give to it's new members if they got themselves involved in small, regional wars. This argument really reached it's peak of controversy in 2008 when NATO candidate country Georgia rather foolishly attacked Russia and then expected NATO to leap to it's aid when Russia counter-attacked. Needless to say Georgia's progress to full NATO membership has slowed considerably since then. No-one else in NATO seemed interested in re-opening this argument with Russia though so the Turks were put back in their box with the minimum of fuss in a little over two hours.
Enraged at this snub by NATO Turkey responded by adopting an aggressive military posture towards Syria flooding it's side of the border with troops, tanks and anti-aircraft missile batteries. This is something Turkey should have done 16 months ago and should help put an end to the conflict in Syria provided Turkey is prepared to use these military assests to stop the supply of weapons to the SIA and prevent SIA fighters using Turkish territory as a safe-haven to launch attacks against Syria. However the rumours I've heard is that the Turkish military is actively helping supply the SIA with weapons and the Turkish government is being quite open about it's role in supplying non-lethal aid to the SIA even issuing government permits to smugglers of medical supplies.
On Wednesday (27/6/12) the United Nations (UN) Office for the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) held a frankly surreal meeting on Syria. The purpose of the meeting was to allow a Commission of Inquiry (CoI) to present it's findings on the situation in Syria following the adoption of the Joint Special Envoy's six point peace plan and the deployment of the United Nations Supervision Mission In Syria (UNSMIS). The CoI concluded that the situation in Syria in terms of violence and human rights abuses has got dramatically worse since the introduction of the six point plan. However it failed to even entertain the idea that the six point plan might be the cause of the escalation of violence.
The CoI did examine the al-Houla massacre but determined that because it had been unable to visit the scene and collect evidence first hand it was unable to apportion blame for the massacre. It was though able to conduct telephone/Skype interviews with local residents. These interveiws completely corroborated the Syrian government's version of events - that is members of the SIA attacked a government checkpoint on the outskirts of the town before moving into the town to massacre women and children predominately from the Al-Sayed, AbdulRazak and Mashlab families. The CoI then apportioned blame for the massacre on the Syrian government asking people to believe that it was more likely that the Syrian government killed two families of Sunni to Alawite converts and the family of a sitting member of the Syrian Parliament.
The CoI also declared the Syrian government's recent attempts at political reform through a consitutional referendum and a Parliamentary election to be "unilateral." Refendums and elections of course involve seeking the opinions of the entire adult population so I am genuinely struggling to imagine how a political reform process could be made more multi-lateral.
To co-incide with the OHCHR meeting the SIA mounted two large attacks within Damascus the Syrian capital. On Wednesday (27/6/12) they attacked and destroyed the al-Ikhbariya TV station killing seven journalists. On Thursday (28/6/12) they attempted to detonate three Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) in the car park of the Palace of Justice/High Court. Only two of the IED's exploded injuring three and killing none. The purpose of the attacks was to convince the Syrian and world population that the SIA is in a much stronger military position then it really is. Although the war in Syria is asymmetric so there is no neat front-line dividing the two sides prior to March-2012 the SIA controlled large sections of the north-west of the country from the town of al-Qusayr on the border with Lebanon to the town of al-Qamishli on the border with Turkey including the population centres of Homs, Hama and Aleppo. Since then though they've been pushed back to the small, rural villages in the Kurdish mountains. If you're that interested in military history and want to annoy the USA you could compare the SIA's recent activity to the Viet Cong's 1968 Tet offensive during the Vietnam war. Either way the attacks on Damascus have pushed to average daily death-toll up to between 80 and 120 people killed per day.
Edited at around 18:35 on 29/6/12 to add:
I'm not even going to begin explaining the Barclays Bank thing in detail because it is big and it is complicated. So big and complicated in fact that it actually began life as a 2007(ish) CIA investigation into Barclays circumventing sanctions on Iran on behalf of the British government. I still need to look at how the deal with the FSA will affect their international liabilities but I'm inclined to think that because of the Syria connection they got off lightly because they have ripped off some very major players.
However pretending for a moment that events in Syria have anything to do with Syria;
On Tuesday (26/6/12) Turkey convened a NATO meeting under article 4 of the Washington Treaty. The overt aim of the meeting was to determine whether last Friday's (22/6/12) shooting down of a Turkish military jet over Syria by the Syrian government constituted a Syrian attack on Turkey of the sort that would trigger NATO's mutual defence agreement (article 5). As the incident was clearly Syria defending itself from Turkish aggression NATO quickly decided that the article 5 conditions had not been met. This outcome was so obvious that not even Turkey was expecting an article 5 response. Instead they were trying to re-open the old argument about what level of support NATO would give to it's new members if they got themselves involved in small, regional wars. This argument really reached it's peak of controversy in 2008 when NATO candidate country Georgia rather foolishly attacked Russia and then expected NATO to leap to it's aid when Russia counter-attacked. Needless to say Georgia's progress to full NATO membership has slowed considerably since then. No-one else in NATO seemed interested in re-opening this argument with Russia though so the Turks were put back in their box with the minimum of fuss in a little over two hours.
Enraged at this snub by NATO Turkey responded by adopting an aggressive military posture towards Syria flooding it's side of the border with troops, tanks and anti-aircraft missile batteries. This is something Turkey should have done 16 months ago and should help put an end to the conflict in Syria provided Turkey is prepared to use these military assests to stop the supply of weapons to the SIA and prevent SIA fighters using Turkish territory as a safe-haven to launch attacks against Syria. However the rumours I've heard is that the Turkish military is actively helping supply the SIA with weapons and the Turkish government is being quite open about it's role in supplying non-lethal aid to the SIA even issuing government permits to smugglers of medical supplies.
On Wednesday (27/6/12) the United Nations (UN) Office for the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) held a frankly surreal meeting on Syria. The purpose of the meeting was to allow a Commission of Inquiry (CoI) to present it's findings on the situation in Syria following the adoption of the Joint Special Envoy's six point peace plan and the deployment of the United Nations Supervision Mission In Syria (UNSMIS). The CoI concluded that the situation in Syria in terms of violence and human rights abuses has got dramatically worse since the introduction of the six point plan. However it failed to even entertain the idea that the six point plan might be the cause of the escalation of violence.
The CoI did examine the al-Houla massacre but determined that because it had been unable to visit the scene and collect evidence first hand it was unable to apportion blame for the massacre. It was though able to conduct telephone/Skype interviews with local residents. These interveiws completely corroborated the Syrian government's version of events - that is members of the SIA attacked a government checkpoint on the outskirts of the town before moving into the town to massacre women and children predominately from the Al-Sayed, AbdulRazak and Mashlab families. The CoI then apportioned blame for the massacre on the Syrian government asking people to believe that it was more likely that the Syrian government killed two families of Sunni to Alawite converts and the family of a sitting member of the Syrian Parliament.
The CoI also declared the Syrian government's recent attempts at political reform through a consitutional referendum and a Parliamentary election to be "unilateral." Refendums and elections of course involve seeking the opinions of the entire adult population so I am genuinely struggling to imagine how a political reform process could be made more multi-lateral.
To co-incide with the OHCHR meeting the SIA mounted two large attacks within Damascus the Syrian capital. On Wednesday (27/6/12) they attacked and destroyed the al-Ikhbariya TV station killing seven journalists. On Thursday (28/6/12) they attempted to detonate three Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) in the car park of the Palace of Justice/High Court. Only two of the IED's exploded injuring three and killing none. The purpose of the attacks was to convince the Syrian and world population that the SIA is in a much stronger military position then it really is. Although the war in Syria is asymmetric so there is no neat front-line dividing the two sides prior to March-2012 the SIA controlled large sections of the north-west of the country from the town of al-Qusayr on the border with Lebanon to the town of al-Qamishli on the border with Turkey including the population centres of Homs, Hama and Aleppo. Since then though they've been pushed back to the small, rural villages in the Kurdish mountains. If you're that interested in military history and want to annoy the USA you could compare the SIA's recent activity to the Viet Cong's 1968 Tet offensive during the Vietnam war. Either way the attacks on Damascus have pushed to average daily death-toll up to between 80 and 120 people killed per day.
Edited at around 18:35 on 29/6/12 to add:
I'm not even going to begin explaining the Barclays Bank thing in detail because it is big and it is complicated. So big and complicated in fact that it actually began life as a 2007(ish) CIA investigation into Barclays circumventing sanctions on Iran on behalf of the British government. I still need to look at how the deal with the FSA will affect their international liabilities but I'm inclined to think that because of the Syria connection they got off lightly because they have ripped off some very major players.
Oh Dear.
Overnight (28-29/6/12) European Union (EU) leaders meeting in Brussels thrashed out yet another deal to solve the Eurozone crisis. Although the meeting has not technically finished yet the main part of the agreement seems to be to allow the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to give money directly to troubled private banks within Eurozone countries without the involvement of national governments. This is obviously horrific news for democracy with the people of Europe no longer allowed to have a say in how the money they're forced to pay in taxes is then handed out to private institutions.
Most of the responsability for this error has to lie with Spain and Italy who apparently held up all other aspects of the meeting until this unfair and unessecery* deal was done. This is very bad news for Spain and Italy because they've shown the financial system that all it needs to do to get what it wants out of the EU is push Spain and Italy around. No wonder the markets are celebrating.
*the main argument being put forward in support of this deal is there needs to be a way of helping the banks without adding to a nations debt thus scaring off private investors. However the same result could have easily been achieved by simply changing the way money from the ESM is prioritised as a form of national debt.
Most of the responsability for this error has to lie with Spain and Italy who apparently held up all other aspects of the meeting until this unfair and unessecery* deal was done. This is very bad news for Spain and Italy because they've shown the financial system that all it needs to do to get what it wants out of the EU is push Spain and Italy around. No wonder the markets are celebrating.
*the main argument being put forward in support of this deal is there needs to be a way of helping the banks without adding to a nations debt thus scaring off private investors. However the same result could have easily been achieved by simply changing the way money from the ESM is prioritised as a form of national debt.
Thursday, 28 June 2012
That's a Turn Up!
This evening (28/6/12) Germany met Italy in the second semi-final of the Euro2012 finals. Having won all of their group games and demolished Greece 4-2 in the quarter-final Germany went into the game the clear favorites. In the opening stages of the match the lived up to that billing constantly testing a shaky looking Italian but just couldn't score. Then Mario Balotelli put away Italy's only two real chances of the half.
With a 2-0 lead going into half-time all Italy needed to do in the second half was sit back and defend their advantage. They did this with aplomb even threatening to make it 3 or 4 nil. Then in the 92nd minute Italy gave away a penalty that Germany converted. It wasn't enough though so Italy go on to meet Spain in the final on Sunday (1/7/12). This will be a re-run of the opening group B game. If that match is anything to go by it should be a cracking final especially as neither side has any reason to hold back.
Obviously the prospect of the Eurozone's two most worrisome economies sweating it out on Sunday while Germany sits back with it's feet up will start a million and one conspiracy theories. However I think it was just a case of Balotelli being on a mission.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
With a 2-0 lead going into half-time all Italy needed to do in the second half was sit back and defend their advantage. They did this with aplomb even threatening to make it 3 or 4 nil. Then in the 92nd minute Italy gave away a penalty that Germany converted. It wasn't enough though so Italy go on to meet Spain in the final on Sunday (1/7/12). This will be a re-run of the opening group B game. If that match is anything to go by it should be a cracking final especially as neither side has any reason to hold back.
Obviously the prospect of the Eurozone's two most worrisome economies sweating it out on Sunday while Germany sits back with it's feet up will start a million and one conspiracy theories. However I think it was just a case of Balotelli being on a mission.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
The Joy of Housework.
After skipping it for the last two weeks I really need to clean the bathroom today (28/6/12). That coupled with having to go food shooping, the second Euro2012 semi-final and my tiredness catching up with me means that I'm bumping my weekly update on Syria until tomorrow.
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Wow That Sucked.
This evening (27/6/12) the two teams with the most attractive styles of play - Spain and Portugal - met in the first semi-final of Euro2012. Unfortunately the referee only seemed to have a vague concept of the rules of football and Portugal were intent on shutting down the game from the start. As a result the game ended in a stale 0-0 draw which took a penalty shootout to break. In the end Spain won through to the final but by that point I'd long since switched over to watch something.
On the plus side at least it gave me time to catch up on all my reading that's been piling up over the last ten days. I've been at that for most of the day and still not finished.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
On the plus side at least it gave me time to catch up on all my reading that's been piling up over the last ten days. I've been at that for most of the day and still not finished.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
England's Euro2012: The Inquest.
At around 19:05 on 26/6/12 I'm back from the pub so this seems like as good a time as any.
On Sunday (24/6/12) England were knocked out of the Euro2012 finals by Italy following a penalty shootout. I've still not seen the game or any of the highlights. However I did watch all of England's warm up games and most of Italy's group games and decided that the two teams were so evenly matched that any game between the two would end in a draw. In a cup competition where one side has to lose this means a penalty shootout. England might have got the better of the Italians if the Italians had been having a bad day or if England's preparation had been better.
However it could have been much worse. In the original plan Harry Rednapp would have been convicted of tax evasion. So when Fabio Capello resigned there would have been a lengthy and divisive argument about whether Rednapp was the right person to manage the national side before Roy Hodgson was appointed at the last minute. As Hodgson was trying to make his mark on the team just weeks before the tournament Britain's obsession with racism in Ukraine would have re-opened the John Terry racism argument blowing the England camp apart. The ensuing infighting should have led to England being knocked out at the end of the the group stages (19/6/12).
Apart from saving the British government the embarrassment of travelling to Ukraine for the knock-out stages the idea was disgruntled English football fans would instead turn their attentions to approved sports like the Wimbledon tennis tournament that started yesterday (25/6/12) and the Olympics. Generally speaking Olympic events and tennis are both individual pursuits rather then team sports. Therefore the British state would prefer it if their population were obsessed with these rather then football. The idea being that watching these type of sports viewers are socially conditioned to believe that all they need to do is focus on themselves and work really hard and someday they will win. Of course real life doesn't work like that because as they say you never go toe to toe with the police force. However having the general public think it does makes them really easy to divide, conquer and control.
Therefore I think the ultimate sporting metaphor is cricket because you've got the almost gladiatorial battle between batsman and bowler but if the batsman proves to good the bowler can always surround him with his teammates and rely on them to catch the batsman out.
Edited at around 19:42 on 26/6/12 to add:
Blimey that took a while. Originally this post caused my home internet connection to throw a sulk forcing me to type the whole thing up on my phone. Fortunately about 1/3rd of the way through my home internet connection recovered so this was actually posted at around 19:40.
On Sunday (24/6/12) England were knocked out of the Euro2012 finals by Italy following a penalty shootout. I've still not seen the game or any of the highlights. However I did watch all of England's warm up games and most of Italy's group games and decided that the two teams were so evenly matched that any game between the two would end in a draw. In a cup competition where one side has to lose this means a penalty shootout. England might have got the better of the Italians if the Italians had been having a bad day or if England's preparation had been better.
However it could have been much worse. In the original plan Harry Rednapp would have been convicted of tax evasion. So when Fabio Capello resigned there would have been a lengthy and divisive argument about whether Rednapp was the right person to manage the national side before Roy Hodgson was appointed at the last minute. As Hodgson was trying to make his mark on the team just weeks before the tournament Britain's obsession with racism in Ukraine would have re-opened the John Terry racism argument blowing the England camp apart. The ensuing infighting should have led to England being knocked out at the end of the the group stages (19/6/12).
Apart from saving the British government the embarrassment of travelling to Ukraine for the knock-out stages the idea was disgruntled English football fans would instead turn their attentions to approved sports like the Wimbledon tennis tournament that started yesterday (25/6/12) and the Olympics. Generally speaking Olympic events and tennis are both individual pursuits rather then team sports. Therefore the British state would prefer it if their population were obsessed with these rather then football. The idea being that watching these type of sports viewers are socially conditioned to believe that all they need to do is focus on themselves and work really hard and someday they will win. Of course real life doesn't work like that because as they say you never go toe to toe with the police force. However having the general public think it does makes them really easy to divide, conquer and control.
Therefore I think the ultimate sporting metaphor is cricket because you've got the almost gladiatorial battle between batsman and bowler but if the batsman proves to good the bowler can always surround him with his teammates and rely on them to catch the batsman out.
Edited at around 19:42 on 26/6/12 to add:
Blimey that took a while. Originally this post caused my home internet connection to throw a sulk forcing me to type the whole thing up on my phone. Fortunately about 1/3rd of the way through my home internet connection recovered so this was actually posted at around 19:40.
The Oldham Explosion
Today (26/6/12) the Queen of England is visiting northern Ireland where she attended a Church service in Eniskillen - scene of a 1987 Irish Republican Army (IRA) bombing. Later she is expected to meet current deputy first minister and alleged former IRA commander Martin McGuiness.
At around 11:15 (local) - just as the Royal helicopter was preparing to land a large explosion tore through a residential street in Oldham, greater Manchester on the British mainland leading to scenes that looked similar to the aftermath of the Eniskillen bombing.
So far one person has been taken to hospital with severe burns, one person is still missing and one person has been confirmed killed. The authorities are blaming the explosion on a suspected natural gas leak.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
At around 11:15 (local) - just as the Royal helicopter was preparing to land a large explosion tore through a residential street in Oldham, greater Manchester on the British mainland leading to scenes that looked similar to the aftermath of the Eniskillen bombing.
So far one person has been taken to hospital with severe burns, one person is still missing and one person has been confirmed killed. The authorities are blaming the explosion on a suspected natural gas leak.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
NATO on Turkey/Syria.
Today (26/6/12) NATO have been meeting to discuss the shooting down of a Turkish military jet on Friday (22/6/12) by Syria. The meeting was held under article 4 of the Washington Treaty to determine if the incident was enough to trigger article 5 which is NATO's mutual defense pact.
I'll try and write up the meeting in more detail later but as the meeting lasted less then two hours I think it's fair to say the Turks were given short shrift.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
I'll try and write up the meeting in more detail later but as the meeting lasted less then two hours I think it's fair to say the Turks were given short shrift.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
South London Healthcare NHS Trust Goes Bust.
On my grandmother's 91st birthday (26/6/12) it's been announced that Britain's minister for health has written to the South London Healthcare NHS Trust warning it that it could be placed in administration/bankruptcy protection by the end of the week amid mounting debts.
Made up of The Princess Royal Hospital in Orpington, Queen Mary's Hospital in Sidcup and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Woolwich South London Healthcare is the next NHS Trust over from my local Croydon Health Service NHS Trust which runs Croydon University/Mayday Hospital. However I've heard lots of NHS Trusts across the country are facing similar financial problems.
This in simply the next phase in the ConDem coalition's NHS reforms - bankrupt the NHS Trusts to force the sale of their assets to private providers at a knock down price.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Made up of The Princess Royal Hospital in Orpington, Queen Mary's Hospital in Sidcup and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Woolwich South London Healthcare is the next NHS Trust over from my local Croydon Health Service NHS Trust which runs Croydon University/Mayday Hospital. However I've heard lots of NHS Trusts across the country are facing similar financial problems.
This in simply the next phase in the ConDem coalition's NHS reforms - bankrupt the NHS Trusts to force the sale of their assets to private providers at a knock down price.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Monday, 25 June 2012
Yeah I'm Taking the Day Off.
Today (25/6/12) I didn't wake up until 13:00(local) so my sleep pattern has completely disintegrated. I might write up a review of the England game because it was just football and therefore easy. However I think priority is just re-setting myself and starting again tomorrow.
Sunday, 24 June 2012
And Now I'm Going
To put my smartphone into bedside mode. Not that you'd notice at around 01:45 on 25/6/12.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
So is the West/'Z/Fenty Trial Finished?
Yes that's right this past weekend (23 - 24/6/12) BBC Radio1 have been hosting their 1 Big Weekend in the London Olympic borough of Hackney. You may remember that Hackney participated in Britain's August 2011 Riots. Unfortunately during those riots many of the participants were heard quoting lyrics from the Kanye West/Jay 'Z/Rhianna hit "Run This Town."
Personally I could take it or leave it but my friend is such a screen addict he actually phoned Radio1 for tickets, you know, when it was just him and the DJ awake. Sadly he didn't get them so instead tried to teach me about "Spotify." After only half a day's training and a three hour loop of "99 Problems" I decided to give Mr West half a point for "Diamonds" and discovered Nikki Minaj.
Blimey at around 22:45 on 24/6/12 that's a lot of typing for such a small keyboard and I've still got to tell the story about how we took the dogs for a walk during the "most boring F1 GP of the season." Afterall it's the local foxes tearing round like their skin's on fire.
But at around 22:50 I'm sure it'll be fine provided they don't start on the distillers.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Personally I could take it or leave it but my friend is such a screen addict he actually phoned Radio1 for tickets, you know, when it was just him and the DJ awake. Sadly he didn't get them so instead tried to teach me about "Spotify." After only half a day's training and a three hour loop of "99 Problems" I decided to give Mr West half a point for "Diamonds" and discovered Nikki Minaj.
Blimey at around 22:45 on 24/6/12 that's a lot of typing for such a small keyboard and I've still got to tell the story about how we took the dogs for a walk during the "most boring F1 GP of the season." Afterall it's the local foxes tearing round like their skin's on fire.
But at around 22:50 I'm sure it'll be fine provided they don't start on the distillers.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
It Was More Humane This Way.
At around 21:30 on 24/6/12 England have lost on penalties to Italy. As a result Italy will go on to meet Germany in the semi-final.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Gone to Penalties Has It
No at 22:15 I mean has it. Yes it hasl
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Yeah Big Bath of
Drugs. So at around 19:30 on 24/6/12 I'm watching TV but you know not watching or thinking about TV.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Dammit 15 Minutes Early.
At around 18:50 on 24/6/12 I'm home unarrested and unmolested just in time to watch the England V Italy Euro2012 match.
Don't worry though I'm now going to take a bath and burn my clothes. In that order.
Oh and at around 18:55 my home Internet's not working.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Don't worry though I'm now going to take a bath and burn my clothes. In that order.
Oh and at around 18:55 my home Internet's not working.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Damn This Blackberry...
...It's cutting into valuable drinking time.
Anyway at around 19:23 on 24/6/12 I'm at East Croydon and have decided to wait for the local train home so I should be crashing back around 19:05.
Dammit I'm thinking about it again.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Anyway at around 19:23 on 24/6/12 I'm at East Croydon and have decided to wait for the local train home so I should be crashing back around 19:05.
Dammit I'm thinking about it again.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
I'm On The Train!
And obviously at around 17:43 on 24/6/12 my Blackberry has been reactivated. However an extra stop at Gatwick Airport means that I should be crashing into East Croydon mid-way through the first half. Hopefully though I should be home just in time for the start of the second half.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Mohamed Mursi Wins Egyptian Presidency.
Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom & Justice Party has won the Egyptian Presidential run off with 51.7% of the vote. The electoral commission excluded some 37,000 votes and upheld some of the 420 complaints. However at around 15:15 on 24/6/12 no further details have been announced and I am still not aware of the voter turnout so it is hard to assess what sort of mandate the new President has been given by the Egyptian people.
I will try and find out more later but rather unhelpfully my Blackberry's been deactivated.
Britain's Banking Calamity
On Thursday (21/6/12) the computerized clearing system for Britain's Natwest bank which also serves the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Ulster bank failed. This left customers including employers who use the banks to pay their employees unable to move money in and out of their accounts. The fault seems to be continuing today (24/6/12) and the backlog has forced Natwest to open it's high street branches on a Sunday for probably the first time in history.
The computer fault came on a big day for the global banking system. On Thursday the credit ratings agency Moody's downgraded 15 banks including Goldman Sachs, Lloyds TSB and HSBC. This was due to a growing feeling within the industry that governments are no longer prepared to bailout failing banks leaving them more exposed to any bad debts they have on their books.
This creates a possibility that a large bank could fail. If that were to happen it would create a situation similar to the current situation with Natwest with customers suddenly being unable to access their money. So Britain faked the banking fault in order to intimidate governments across the world (especially within the Eurozone) into continuing to pour taxpayer's money into the banks.
Oh and I think there was also a hope that my Thursday post on Syria would be different from what it was.
Saturday, 23 June 2012
Fecking Football Liability.
After arriving at the King and Queen around two hours before the start of the Spain V France Euro2012 match my friend (I'm only allowed the one) decided that he had to nip out just before kick off. As the place was rammed with foreign the door staff wouldn't let him back in so he talked a female bouncer into letting him into another pub and insisted we come and join him.
So at halftime we went and joined him. Halfway through three lads tried kicking their way in. Although the staff handled it me and half the pub took the opportunity to get scary face on.
So although I gather Spain scored a penalty in the dying seconds to go through to the semi I've got little idea what happened. I f*cking enjoyed myself though.
21:40 23/6/12
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
So at halftime we went and joined him. Halfway through three lads tried kicking their way in. Although the staff handled it me and half the pub took the opportunity to get scary face on.
So although I gather Spain scored a penalty in the dying seconds to go through to the semi I've got little idea what happened. I f*cking enjoyed myself though.
21:40 23/6/12
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
I'm in the Pub
Sorry for being a pain but I've got a nasty feeling that today (23/6/12) is one of those days when I need to stay in touch. However I doubt I'll be in any condition to explain last Thursday's banking failure no matter how many times people use it as excuse to get a round in.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Turkey's Eurovision 2012 Entry
Turkey's entry to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest was "Love Me Back" by Can Bonomo. Although the bland love ballad was easily forgettable the stage show wasn't. It featured the star dressed as a sea captain surrounded by banner waving backing dancers. At the height of the performance the dancers surrounded the star and used their banners to form the shape of a sailing ship.
At first glance this looked like Turkey having a dig at Israel over the Mavi Marmara/flotilla incident. However at closer inspection the star looked quite a bit like Rudolf Martin - an actor who played Mossad/HAMAS double agent Ari Haswari David/Haswari in seasons 1&2 of US TV Show "NCIS." His costume was an almost perfect copy of the Turkish sea captain who was smuggling for Abu Sayyaf terrorists in the season 3 finale.
So the Turks were using actually using the contest to show the USA that they were making friends with the Israelis. This was largely a success with the judging panels including a notable single point from Israel.
So in summary; The Turkish PM is a man that really needs a war, Echelon might be picking this up and I really need to get a life. 14:29 on 23/6/12.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
At first glance this looked like Turkey having a dig at Israel over the Mavi Marmara/flotilla incident. However at closer inspection the star looked quite a bit like Rudolf Martin - an actor who played Mossad/HAMAS double agent Ari Haswari David/Haswari in seasons 1&2 of US TV Show "NCIS." His costume was an almost perfect copy of the Turkish sea captain who was smuggling for Abu Sayyaf terrorists in the season 3 finale.
So the Turks were using actually using the contest to show the USA that they were making friends with the Israelis. This was largely a success with the judging panels including a notable single point from Israel.
So in summary; The Turkish PM is a man that really needs a war, Echelon might be picking this up and I really need to get a life. 14:29 on 23/6/12.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 3, Day 3.
More information has emerged about yesterday's (22/6/12) loss of a Turkish military jet.
Turkey has now confirmed that the F4 Phantom was flown into Syrian airspace at speed and at a low altitude in order to evade Syrian air defences. This was done deliberately to test the integrity of the Syrian military command structure following Thursday's (21/6/12) defection by a Syrian pilot to Jordan. The Syrians responded by doing what any nation would do in the circumstance and shot down the Turkish aircraft. This highlights the fact that any international military intervention in Syria will make last year's little adventure in Libya look simple.
While the joint Turkish/Syrian sea search for the two missing airmen continues the Turkish Prime Minister has said that the incident can't be ignored and promised that whatever is necessary will be done. I would like to second that sentiment because surely it is now time for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to convene to condemn Turkey's act of unprovoked aggression against Syria.
Before that though I should probably get around to writing up Turkey's entry to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest but at this rate I'm going to have to do that on the train.
Turkey has now confirmed that the F4 Phantom was flown into Syrian airspace at speed and at a low altitude in order to evade Syrian air defences. This was done deliberately to test the integrity of the Syrian military command structure following Thursday's (21/6/12) defection by a Syrian pilot to Jordan. The Syrians responded by doing what any nation would do in the circumstance and shot down the Turkish aircraft. This highlights the fact that any international military intervention in Syria will make last year's little adventure in Libya look simple.
While the joint Turkish/Syrian sea search for the two missing airmen continues the Turkish Prime Minister has said that the incident can't be ignored and promised that whatever is necessary will be done. I would like to second that sentiment because surely it is now time for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to convene to condemn Turkey's act of unprovoked aggression against Syria.
Before that though I should probably get around to writing up Turkey's entry to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest but at this rate I'm going to have to do that on the train.
No This Can't Be Right.
Surely there isn't a 07:50 on a Saturday (23/6/13). However as it appears there is and I'm here I should take a moment to cover Jimmy Carr's tax affairs in more detail.
Jimmy Carr is probably Britain's most successful comedian at the moment with a stand up act that sells out arenas and frequent TV presenting jobs including on Channel4's infamous "10 O'clock Live." At some point during this past week one of Britain's newspapers revealed that Mr Carr had been using a perfectly legal scheme to minimise the amount of income tax he has to pay. This drew comment from the Prime Minister David Cameron no less who described the situation as immoral. What appears to have happened is that Mr Carr was using the standard footballers blag. That is to say that he was diverting a portion of his income into a fund that gave out development loans thus taking it out of the tax system. Mr Carr then took out tax-exempt loans from the fund for exactly the amount of money that he put in. Those loans were interest free and never repaid.
Although I haven't looked at the exact details of the scheme or done a forensic analysis of Mr Carr's accounts I'm guessing that he still ended up paying more income tax then most people earn in a year. Therefore I don't have any problem with it. Not least because the next time I'm going round with the begging bowl because there's been an earthquake in Haiti or a famine in east Africa the tax saved means Mr Carr can afford to be first in the queue. After all while I think everyone should pay their way in society I'm not sure that is the same thing as just giving the government lots of money.
However if you are Greek and reading this I'm sorry to put the boot in but you do occasionally need to pay the government some money especially if you want the government to pay for things like pensions or subsidised education.
Jimmy Carr is probably Britain's most successful comedian at the moment with a stand up act that sells out arenas and frequent TV presenting jobs including on Channel4's infamous "10 O'clock Live." At some point during this past week one of Britain's newspapers revealed that Mr Carr had been using a perfectly legal scheme to minimise the amount of income tax he has to pay. This drew comment from the Prime Minister David Cameron no less who described the situation as immoral. What appears to have happened is that Mr Carr was using the standard footballers blag. That is to say that he was diverting a portion of his income into a fund that gave out development loans thus taking it out of the tax system. Mr Carr then took out tax-exempt loans from the fund for exactly the amount of money that he put in. Those loans were interest free and never repaid.
Although I haven't looked at the exact details of the scheme or done a forensic analysis of Mr Carr's accounts I'm guessing that he still ended up paying more income tax then most people earn in a year. Therefore I don't have any problem with it. Not least because the next time I'm going round with the begging bowl because there's been an earthquake in Haiti or a famine in east Africa the tax saved means Mr Carr can afford to be first in the queue. After all while I think everyone should pay their way in society I'm not sure that is the same thing as just giving the government lots of money.
However if you are Greek and reading this I'm sorry to put the boot in but you do occasionally need to pay the government some money especially if you want the government to pay for things like pensions or subsidised education.
Friday, 22 June 2012
Seriously Just Five More Minutes.
At around 21:50 on 22/6/12 I've still not gone to bed. Mainly this is because I wanted to watch tonight's episode of Channel4 topical comedy panel show "8 Out of 10 Cats." That's because if you've been reading the papers you would know that one of the biggest news topics in Britain this week has been "8 Out of 10 Cats" host Jimmy Carr's tax affairs.
Apart from causing the obvious tension across the entire industry and providing a way for Britain to demonstrate that in light of UKUncut protests they treat all incidents of tax avoidance equally I think that along with the proceeding program"the Million Pound Drop Live" this was a deliberate attempt to put people off the football or at least start a million start a million and one arguments about the remote control.
As for the show itself it was hardly worth watching because rather then just going for Mr Carr the panels took bit on him and turned it into a not very well informed topical discussion show.
Anyway at around 22:00 I definately going to bed or at least turning off the PC.
Apart from causing the obvious tension across the entire industry and providing a way for Britain to demonstrate that in light of UKUncut protests they treat all incidents of tax avoidance equally I think that along with the proceeding program"the Million Pound Drop Live" this was a deliberate attempt to put people off the football or at least start a million start a million and one arguments about the remote control.
As for the show itself it was hardly worth watching because rather then just going for Mr Carr the panels took bit on him and turned it into a not very well informed topical discussion show.
Anyway at around 22:00 I definately going to bed or at least turning off the PC.
You Gave Them Respect...
...And they gave you a game.
Literally just as I was editing my previous post Germany went 1-0 up against Greece with a goal I've still not seen. It stayed like this until half-time. The Greeks came out knowing they were going to lose so sent on the big lads. This must of worked because while I was making coffee Greece's number seven (7) Samaras (no the other one) equalised with another goal I'm still not seen. Then Germany quickly banged in three more which left the score as 4-1 to Germany. This was both the number I had in my head at the start of the game and the scoreline in Russia's opening game. Unfortunately though both sides realised this and couldn't let it stand. So after the Greek youth let them down Germany gave away a penalty which Salpingidis put away leaving the final score as 4-2 to Germany. Germany go through to the semi-final where they will meet the winner of Sunday's 24/6/12) England V Italy game.
Incidentally are the Greeks sure that Gekis is a centre-forward because he looks more like a centre-half to me. Specifically Neil Ruddock who played for Crystal Palace once which is a shame because he had it written into his contract that if he stayed under 15 stone he'd start.
Anyway at around 20:50 on 22/6/12 I'm seriously considering going to bed now as I've got an early(ish) start tomorrow
Literally just as I was editing my previous post Germany went 1-0 up against Greece with a goal I've still not seen. It stayed like this until half-time. The Greeks came out knowing they were going to lose so sent on the big lads. This must of worked because while I was making coffee Greece's number seven (7) Samaras (no the other one) equalised with another goal I'm still not seen. Then Germany quickly banged in three more which left the score as 4-1 to Germany. This was both the number I had in my head at the start of the game and the scoreline in Russia's opening game. Unfortunately though both sides realised this and couldn't let it stand. So after the Greek youth let them down Germany gave away a penalty which Salpingidis put away leaving the final score as 4-2 to Germany. Germany go through to the semi-final where they will meet the winner of Sunday's 24/6/12) England V Italy game.
Incidentally are the Greeks sure that Gekis is a centre-forward because he looks more like a centre-half to me. Specifically Neil Ruddock who played for Crystal Palace once which is a shame because he had it written into his contract that if he stayed under 15 stone he'd start.
Anyway at around 20:50 on 22/6/12 I'm seriously considering going to bed now as I've got an early(ish) start tomorrow
Turkey's Lost
One of their planes and the French have called for Syrian defections. Both of these are responses to yesterday's defection. For the Syrian's part they've offered to help find the two missing Turkish pilots.
As for the football who is going to the first to break it to the Greeks in footballing terms? Actually "German misses" might be worth a look in play. 19:23.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at around 19:23 on 22/6/12to add: Not bad at all. I might need to keep this.
As for the football who is going to the first to break it to the Greeks in footballing terms? Actually "German misses" might be worth a look in play. 19:23.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at around 19:23 on 22/6/12to add: Not bad at all. I might need to keep this.
The Egyptian Election: A Quick Note
At around 18:35 on 22/6/12 I have not received a list of the Shafik campaigns list of complaints. Nor have I received an exhaustive list of the Morsi's.
However from the partial Morsi list I've sorted the complaints into four categories;
1. Technical breaches that would not have affected the result.
2. Breaches that could have affected the result but were mostly likely the result of genuine human error / unacceptable violence.
3. Deliberate attempts to rig the election which if isolated incidents would not affect the overall outcome.
4. Serious structural errors that could have had a significant effect on the outcome but could equally be caused by deliberate wrongdoing or genuine human error.
Obviously each of these individual complaints will have to be investigated so I won't be expecting a result until Sunday (24/6/12) at the absolute earliest. 18:51
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at 18:55 on 22/6/12 to add: Once again there within a minute. Time to watch the football.
However from the partial Morsi list I've sorted the complaints into four categories;
1. Technical breaches that would not have affected the result.
2. Breaches that could have affected the result but were mostly likely the result of genuine human error / unacceptable violence.
3. Deliberate attempts to rig the election which if isolated incidents would not affect the overall outcome.
4. Serious structural errors that could have had a significant effect on the outcome but could equally be caused by deliberate wrongdoing or genuine human error.
Obviously each of these individual complaints will have to be investigated so I won't be expecting a result until Sunday (24/6/12) at the absolute earliest. 18:51
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at 18:55 on 22/6/12 to add: Once again there within a minute. Time to watch the football.
Ah Yes The Interface Problem
As I've mentioned I recently brought a Blackberry smartphone to counter the problem of my home Internet connection getting blocked. It was around this point Google - my blog provider decided that their new interface would only work with Android smartphones. I think I've found a way around that problem by emailing post through.
At exactly 13:33 on 22/6/12 the purpose of this post is to test that theory.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at around 13:34 on 22/6/12:
And at exactly 13:34 it's all here present and correct with only a minute delay. I'll try and test it again but as always it will be subject to network gremlins.
At exactly 13:33 on 22/6/12 the purpose of this post is to test that theory.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone on O2
Edited at around 13:34 on 22/6/12:
And at exactly 13:34 it's all here present and correct with only a minute delay. I'll try and test it again but as always it will be subject to network gremlins.
Phew That's a Relief.
As previously mentioned in the great sea of words that was Tuesday (19/6/12) night I'm planning to go down to Brighton tomorrow (23/6/12) to watch the football before staying overnight to return on Sunday (24/6/12) evening. This is despite the fact that Britain is holding the Isle of Wight music festival, BBC Radio 1 is hosting it's one big weekend music festival in the riot epicentre/Olympic borough of Hackney over the weekend and the Egyptian election results could be released on Sunday at the earliest. The good news though is that I've checked and there are no planned engineering works on the rail network so the only thing likely to disrupt my journey is the weather. If that does happen I wouldn't worry too much because I heard they've got the Internet down in Brighton now and everything.
In preparation though I will need to spend most of the today (22/6/12) reading up on the details of the Egyptian election because Egypt's electoral commission are being asked to consider an awful lot of data. So even if I did cancel the trip and the results are released on Sunday I don't see myself being in a position to give an informed opinion until Monday (25/6/12) at the earliest.
In preparation though I will need to spend most of the today (22/6/12) reading up on the details of the Egyptian election because Egypt's electoral commission are being asked to consider an awful lot of data. So even if I did cancel the trip and the results are released on Sunday I don't see myself being in a position to give an informed opinion until Monday (25/6/12) at the earliest.
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 3, Day 1.
At around 15:00 today (21/6/12) I simply ground to a halt. I decided that I didn't have the energy to clean the bathroom and certainly didn't have the energy to write an update or Syria because quite frankly it's all too depressing. With the United Nations Supervision Mission In Syria (UNSMIS) observers remaining confined to their barracks fighting has raged throughout most of Syria's main population centres with the daily death toll averaging between 70 and 100 people killed.
One area I should cover though is that Britain has let it be known that during the G20 Summit Russia agreed to allow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad avoid prosecution for those alleged war crimes that Britain can't actually prove provided he steps down and allows for a gradual regime change modeled on what has become known as the "Yemen Process." Russia have denied this. However even if they were to agree to it it wouldn't work for two main reasons;
One area I should cover though is that Britain has let it be known that during the G20 Summit Russia agreed to allow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad avoid prosecution for those alleged war crimes that Britain can't actually prove provided he steps down and allows for a gradual regime change modeled on what has become known as the "Yemen Process." Russia have denied this. However even if they were to agree to it it wouldn't work for two main reasons;
- As the May 21st 2012 (21/5/12) suicide bombing at a military dress rehearsal demonstrates the Yemen process isn't even working in Yemen.
- Saudi Arabia's insistence on President Saleh stepping aside had absolutely nothing to do with Yemen. Instead it was all about the political situation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a nation of around 25 million people so it is far to late a night for me to explain the political situation there fully. However if you want to educate yourself the 2007 Peter Berg film "The Kingdom" is a good place to start. The reason that Britain wants Syria to follow the Yemen process is to allow the Saudi Royal Family to gain a detailed explanation of exactly what the USA's opinion of Yemen is on a day to day basis. Quite why the USA wants Syria to follow the Yemen process is a mystery to me but it smells a bit Protestant.
Wow This is Getting Serious.
At around 20:40 on 21/6/12 I've just finished watching a very tense and very ugly Euro2012 match between the Czech Republic and Portugal. So tense and ugly in fact that around an hour in I was convinced it was going to go to extra-time and penalties and went out into my garden in the number seven(7) district of Croydon (CR) for a ahem cigarette. Then moments after I came back in and sat down Portugal's number seven (7) Christiano Ronaldo scored the winner. Now this could have happened specifically to annoy me. Alternatively it could have been because he'd been looking for it all night. After all he's starting to look like a great player now.
Oh and then in the closing seconds Limbersky made his contribution to the goal-line technology debate but it still ended 1-0 to Portugal who will now progress to the semi-final.
Oh and then in the closing seconds Limbersky made his contribution to the goal-line technology debate but it still ended 1-0 to Portugal who will now progress to the semi-final.
The Egyptian Presidental Run-Off Results.
The results of Egypt's Presidential run-off vote that was held across Saturday June 16th (16/6/12) and Sunday June 17th (17/6/12) were supposed to be released today (21/6/12). However they have been delayed indefinitely.
The main reason for this delay is that between them the two candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik have made some 400 complaints of irregularities to the electoral commission. These range from the frankly stupid such as a woman who was arrested for attempting the smuggle a blank ballot paper out of a polling station to complaints that are significant but could have been caused by simple human error such as a books of ballot papers going missing and dead people showing up electoral registers. There are also much more serious complaints such a ballot papers arriving at polling stations with one candidate already selected and the use of violence and the threat of violence against both supporters of Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik. The accusation of violent intimidation of Shaifk supporters has been corroborated by election observers working for the Carter Foundation.
To give you an idea of how long it will take the electoral commission to investigate all these claims it took me the best part part of two hours today to simply read through the list of half of the complaints made by the Morsi campaign. However the rumour is that the electoral commission should be able to complete it's investigations and make the results available in the next few days.
The result itself will be quite hard to predict with the Morsi campaign claiming that their candidate won with 52% of the vote while the Shafik campaign claims that their candidate won with 51% of the vote. The figure I'm interested in though is the voter turnout because this will help explain whether the result reflects the will of the majority of the Egyptian people or simply the will of a small minority who were motivated to vote.
The main reason for this delay is that between them the two candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik have made some 400 complaints of irregularities to the electoral commission. These range from the frankly stupid such as a woman who was arrested for attempting the smuggle a blank ballot paper out of a polling station to complaints that are significant but could have been caused by simple human error such as a books of ballot papers going missing and dead people showing up electoral registers. There are also much more serious complaints such a ballot papers arriving at polling stations with one candidate already selected and the use of violence and the threat of violence against both supporters of Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik. The accusation of violent intimidation of Shaifk supporters has been corroborated by election observers working for the Carter Foundation.
To give you an idea of how long it will take the electoral commission to investigate all these claims it took me the best part part of two hours today to simply read through the list of half of the complaints made by the Morsi campaign. However the rumour is that the electoral commission should be able to complete it's investigations and make the results available in the next few days.
The result itself will be quite hard to predict with the Morsi campaign claiming that their candidate won with 52% of the vote while the Shafik campaign claims that their candidate won with 51% of the vote. The figure I'm interested in though is the voter turnout because this will help explain whether the result reflects the will of the majority of the Egyptian people or simply the will of a small minority who were motivated to vote.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Egypt's June 17th Constitutional Declaration
At around 20:15 on 20/6/12 I have now read, compared, contrasted and considered the Constitutional Declaration of June 17th 2011 (17/6/12) which can be read in Arabic here; http://www.ahram.org.eg/-/News/155958.aspx with the original Constitutional Declaration of March 30th 2011 (30/3/12) which can be read in Arabic here; http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/380474
However I used the English translations that can be read here; http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/45350/Egypt/Politics-/URGENT-English-text-of-SCAF-amended-Constitutional.aspx and here;
http://www.cabinet.gov.eg/AboutEgypt/ConstitutionalDeclaration_e.pdf
The first change is Article 30 which simply adds the phrase; "In situation that Parliament is dissolved the President will be sworn into office in front of the High Constitutional Court's General Assembly." This has simply been done to allow the newly-elected President to be sworn in despite the fact that the Peoples Assembly has been dissolved.
Article 38 has been completely re-written replacing the wording: "The law shall govern candidacy for the Peoples Assembly and the Shoura Council according to the determined electoral system including at a minimum the participation of women in both assemblies." with the wording; "The Parliamentary elections will be conducted in accordance with the law." This new wording has been designed to make it more difficult for the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) to overturn future election results by removing the provision that allows for candidate to be banned and use of quotas. It does though give the SCC the power to regulate future elections in accordance with a law that has yet to be written.
Articles 53, 53/1, 53/2 simply seek to clarify the vague wording in the original declaration which declare the Armed Forces to be "the property of the people." It clearly defines that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the Office of the President as a separate entities. Both of these bodies will have to agree for Egypt to declare war or for the military to intervene in internal unrest. It also prevents the President from putting pressure on the armed forces to agree on these issues by removing the President's right to appoint or dismiss military leaders. This is a perfectly normal safeguard for a democratic country to have in order to prevent it being turned into a dictatorship. For example in the USA the military swear an oath to uphold the constitution so if a President gives an unconstitutional order the military can simply refuse to carry it out. Also the new wording removes the ban on paramilitary groups which the Muslim Brotherhood originally objected to so violently and mandatory conscription into the military. However I think these two things are as a result of the amendment being written in a hurry rather then something more intentional.
Article 56B merely gives the SCAF the powers listed in Article 56 until the election of a new Peoples Assembly. This is simply to allow someone to run the country until a government is elected. It also isn't strictly speaking necessary because the March 30th declaration actually gives SCAF those powers whether a government is in place or not. So the addition of the amendment actually reduces the SCAF's power by insisting that it must make way for a properly elected government.
Article 60B simply adds a provision allowing the SCAF to appoint a committee to write the new constitution if the Peoples Assembly and the Shoura Council fail to do so within the six months mentioned in the original document. As the Peoples Assembly and Shoura Council have failed to appoint this committee within the six month time limit someone has to do it because Egypt can't carry on in this transition phase indefinitely. The article still gives the people the right to reject the constitution written by the SCAF appointed committee at referendum if they do not approve of it.
Article 60B1 adds the opportunity for the President, the Prime Minister, the SCAF, the Judiciary or 1/5th of the committee to object to any constitutional clause they believe to conflict with the values of the revolution or long held pre-Mubarak Egyptian values. This is important because at a referendum people will only be able to vote yes or no to the entire constitution which can lead to an otherwise perfectly good constitution being rejected due to just one or two bad clauses or one or two bad clauses being included because voters don't want to reject all the other clauses. The article includes a provision for any disputes to be ruled on by the Higher Constitutional Court which allows for the oversight needed to prevent the objection process being abused.
So in conclusion I do not see the June 17th constitutional declaration to be any sort of power grab by SCAF. Instead it's a necessary adjustment to allow the military to pick up the slack caused by the failure of Egypt's inexperienced politicians.
However I used the English translations that can be read here; http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/45350/Egypt/Politics-/URGENT-English-text-of-SCAF-amended-Constitutional.aspx and here;
http://www.cabinet.gov.eg/AboutEgypt/ConstitutionalDeclaration_e.pdf
The first change is Article 30 which simply adds the phrase; "In situation that Parliament is dissolved the President will be sworn into office in front of the High Constitutional Court's General Assembly." This has simply been done to allow the newly-elected President to be sworn in despite the fact that the Peoples Assembly has been dissolved.
Article 38 has been completely re-written replacing the wording: "The law shall govern candidacy for the Peoples Assembly and the Shoura Council according to the determined electoral system including at a minimum the participation of women in both assemblies." with the wording; "The Parliamentary elections will be conducted in accordance with the law." This new wording has been designed to make it more difficult for the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) to overturn future election results by removing the provision that allows for candidate to be banned and use of quotas. It does though give the SCC the power to regulate future elections in accordance with a law that has yet to be written.
Articles 53, 53/1, 53/2 simply seek to clarify the vague wording in the original declaration which declare the Armed Forces to be "the property of the people." It clearly defines that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the Office of the President as a separate entities. Both of these bodies will have to agree for Egypt to declare war or for the military to intervene in internal unrest. It also prevents the President from putting pressure on the armed forces to agree on these issues by removing the President's right to appoint or dismiss military leaders. This is a perfectly normal safeguard for a democratic country to have in order to prevent it being turned into a dictatorship. For example in the USA the military swear an oath to uphold the constitution so if a President gives an unconstitutional order the military can simply refuse to carry it out. Also the new wording removes the ban on paramilitary groups which the Muslim Brotherhood originally objected to so violently and mandatory conscription into the military. However I think these two things are as a result of the amendment being written in a hurry rather then something more intentional.
Article 56B merely gives the SCAF the powers listed in Article 56 until the election of a new Peoples Assembly. This is simply to allow someone to run the country until a government is elected. It also isn't strictly speaking necessary because the March 30th declaration actually gives SCAF those powers whether a government is in place or not. So the addition of the amendment actually reduces the SCAF's power by insisting that it must make way for a properly elected government.
Article 60B simply adds a provision allowing the SCAF to appoint a committee to write the new constitution if the Peoples Assembly and the Shoura Council fail to do so within the six months mentioned in the original document. As the Peoples Assembly and Shoura Council have failed to appoint this committee within the six month time limit someone has to do it because Egypt can't carry on in this transition phase indefinitely. The article still gives the people the right to reject the constitution written by the SCAF appointed committee at referendum if they do not approve of it.
Article 60B1 adds the opportunity for the President, the Prime Minister, the SCAF, the Judiciary or 1/5th of the committee to object to any constitutional clause they believe to conflict with the values of the revolution or long held pre-Mubarak Egyptian values. This is important because at a referendum people will only be able to vote yes or no to the entire constitution which can lead to an otherwise perfectly good constitution being rejected due to just one or two bad clauses or one or two bad clauses being included because voters don't want to reject all the other clauses. The article includes a provision for any disputes to be ruled on by the Higher Constitutional Court which allows for the oversight needed to prevent the objection process being abused.
So in conclusion I do not see the June 17th constitutional declaration to be any sort of power grab by SCAF. Instead it's a necessary adjustment to allow the military to pick up the slack caused by the failure of Egypt's inexperienced politicians.
Julian Assange in Ecuador.
At some point during last night's (19/6/12) Euro2012 games between England and Ukraine and France and Sweden (18:45 - 20:45) Wikileaks founder Julian Assange decided to break his bail conditions and seek political asylum (refugee status) at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, UK for which all legal intents and purposes in Ecuadorian sovereign territory.
You may remember that Wikileaks was made famous by publishing the video "Collateral Murder," the Iraq war logs and the US diplomatic cables. Those documents were provided to Wikileaks by Bradley Manning a US Army intelligence analyst based in Baghdad, Iraq. Despite persistent rumours that Manning was acting with official but undeclared permission when he leaked the files he is currently on trial in the US and if convicted faces either the death penalty or life imprisonment in a very harsh US military prison. For his part Julian Assange is wanted for questioning in Sweden over their rather unique rape laws. He is currently on Court bail with strict conditions in the UK while trying to fight his extradition to Sweden. He was always going to lose his extradition fight because both Britain and Sweden want to give the US to option to seek his extradition to the US in order to force them to clarify what level of official permission Bradley Manning had in leaking the files.
Like many South American countries Ecuador was one of the front lines in the Cold War proxy battles between the USA and the USSR. In 1972 the US backed dictator Guillermo Rodriguez seized power in a military coup. In 1976 Rodriguez himself was overthrown by the Soviet backed dictator Alfredo Poveda. In 1979 the USA overthrew Poveda with a democratic uprising that swept Jaime Roldos Aguilera to power. Aguilera himself died in a plane crash in 1981 which people still suspect was one of those assassinations that were all so common during the School of the Americas days. While he has been fighting extradition to Sweden Julian Assange has begun hosting a talk-show called "The World Tomorrow" on Russian English language broadcaster "Russia Today." This has become a significant issue between Russia and the USA as they clash over Syria (the helicopter gunships). Therefore Assange's decision to seek asylum in Ecuador during the Mexico hosted G20 Summit was meant to look like Russia inflaming most of South America in order to put pressure on the USA with the obvious blow-back on the Russians that would lead to.
Also Ecuador controls the Galapagos Islands. These are where Charles Darwin formulated his theory of evolution which is still not believed by certain sections of the US political right and formed the basis for the pseudo-science of Eugenics which was central to the Nazi holocaust of the second world war. So by seeking asylum in Ecuador Julian Assange was also trying to inflame all these issues. Finally the Galapagos Islands are one of the oldest and most famous conservation areas with very strict rules protecting it's flora and fauna. This type of conservation effort is going to be central to the Rio+20 environment conference that British Prime Minister David Cameron insisted should take place between today (20/6/12) and Friday (22/6/12) but has still refused to attend.
As for why Julian Assange has allowed himself to be used in this way I think that while what he's accused of wouldn't constitute a criminal offence in other country it is almost certain that he will be jailed for rape in Sweden even if he isn't extradited to the US. In fact although it's hard to call I would say that extradition to the US actually represents Assange's best chance of avoiding prison. Therefore what he was trying to do was skip the Sweden step entirely. Mainly though he has allowed himself to be unduly influenced by the British Establishment specifically the people at the Frontline Club.
You may remember that Wikileaks was made famous by publishing the video "Collateral Murder," the Iraq war logs and the US diplomatic cables. Those documents were provided to Wikileaks by Bradley Manning a US Army intelligence analyst based in Baghdad, Iraq. Despite persistent rumours that Manning was acting with official but undeclared permission when he leaked the files he is currently on trial in the US and if convicted faces either the death penalty or life imprisonment in a very harsh US military prison. For his part Julian Assange is wanted for questioning in Sweden over their rather unique rape laws. He is currently on Court bail with strict conditions in the UK while trying to fight his extradition to Sweden. He was always going to lose his extradition fight because both Britain and Sweden want to give the US to option to seek his extradition to the US in order to force them to clarify what level of official permission Bradley Manning had in leaking the files.
Like many South American countries Ecuador was one of the front lines in the Cold War proxy battles between the USA and the USSR. In 1972 the US backed dictator Guillermo Rodriguez seized power in a military coup. In 1976 Rodriguez himself was overthrown by the Soviet backed dictator Alfredo Poveda. In 1979 the USA overthrew Poveda with a democratic uprising that swept Jaime Roldos Aguilera to power. Aguilera himself died in a plane crash in 1981 which people still suspect was one of those assassinations that were all so common during the School of the Americas days. While he has been fighting extradition to Sweden Julian Assange has begun hosting a talk-show called "The World Tomorrow" on Russian English language broadcaster "Russia Today." This has become a significant issue between Russia and the USA as they clash over Syria (the helicopter gunships). Therefore Assange's decision to seek asylum in Ecuador during the Mexico hosted G20 Summit was meant to look like Russia inflaming most of South America in order to put pressure on the USA with the obvious blow-back on the Russians that would lead to.
Also Ecuador controls the Galapagos Islands. These are where Charles Darwin formulated his theory of evolution which is still not believed by certain sections of the US political right and formed the basis for the pseudo-science of Eugenics which was central to the Nazi holocaust of the second world war. So by seeking asylum in Ecuador Julian Assange was also trying to inflame all these issues. Finally the Galapagos Islands are one of the oldest and most famous conservation areas with very strict rules protecting it's flora and fauna. This type of conservation effort is going to be central to the Rio+20 environment conference that British Prime Minister David Cameron insisted should take place between today (20/6/12) and Friday (22/6/12) but has still refused to attend.
As for why Julian Assange has allowed himself to be used in this way I think that while what he's accused of wouldn't constitute a criminal offence in other country it is almost certain that he will be jailed for rape in Sweden even if he isn't extradited to the US. In fact although it's hard to call I would say that extradition to the US actually represents Assange's best chance of avoiding prison. Therefore what he was trying to do was skip the Sweden step entirely. Mainly though he has allowed himself to be unduly influenced by the British Establishment specifically the people at the Frontline Club.
Hosni Mubarak's Health.
Or lack thereof.
At around 21:00GMT last night (19/6/12) rumours started to circulate that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had suffered a heart attack and died. These were immediately followed by other rumours that he's actually suffered a stroke and died or that he'd suffered a stroke an survived. There were also rumours that Egypt's interim military rulers were making the whole thing up either to distract from the controversy surrounding the dissolution of Parliament and the issuing of Sunday's (17/6/12) constitutional decree or to put pressure on the G20 Summit. Today (20/6/12) Mubarak does seem to technically still be alive and had has been moved from prison to a military hospital in Cairo where he is said to be on life support. There has not been an official press conference on the technical aspects of his condition and I have not visited him in hospital nor spoken to his doctors so I am not 100% sure what to believe.
One thing I am certain of though is that Egypt is a very tense place at the moment what with the dissolution of Parliament, the constitutional decree and the Presidential run-off. This tension is present throughout the region - which is what I think did for the Saudi Arabian Interior Minister - and has been magnified by the G20 Summit which has been billed by the USA in particular as a show down with Russia over Syria. So what I think happened is that Hosni Mubarak suffered a stroke for whatever the natural reasons are that some people suffer strokes while others don't. The medical team at the prison then resuscitated him and got him on life support as they are trained to do.
This then caused a spilt within Egypt's interim military rulers with some people thinking that it's not really the government's place to decide who lives or dies provided a court hasn't sentenced them to death. There were also people who think that he could pull through and recover. There were also people who think that Egypt could use the confusion over Mubarak's health to it's advantage - Israel did something similar with Ariel Sharon. Also the right to life/right to die issue is a highly inflammatory issue within US politics with the religious right very opposed to doctors intervening to end pregnancies (abortion) because it goes against God's will but equally opposed to doctors withdrawing treatment to people who would otherwise die without life support. Therefore it is something Egypt could possibly use to exert influence over the US. Finally there were people who thought that the divisive nature of the issue could expose the different factions of Egyptian political society to the outside world - something that would put Egypt at a disadvantage.
Sadly I simply do not have enough information to tell you what is the right answer. Ideally I would have liked to have avoided commenting on the issue as far as possible instead leaving it all a bit vague. However coming in the closing stages of the G20 Summit I felt that wasn't really an option.
At around 21:00GMT last night (19/6/12) rumours started to circulate that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had suffered a heart attack and died. These were immediately followed by other rumours that he's actually suffered a stroke and died or that he'd suffered a stroke an survived. There were also rumours that Egypt's interim military rulers were making the whole thing up either to distract from the controversy surrounding the dissolution of Parliament and the issuing of Sunday's (17/6/12) constitutional decree or to put pressure on the G20 Summit. Today (20/6/12) Mubarak does seem to technically still be alive and had has been moved from prison to a military hospital in Cairo where he is said to be on life support. There has not been an official press conference on the technical aspects of his condition and I have not visited him in hospital nor spoken to his doctors so I am not 100% sure what to believe.
One thing I am certain of though is that Egypt is a very tense place at the moment what with the dissolution of Parliament, the constitutional decree and the Presidential run-off. This tension is present throughout the region - which is what I think did for the Saudi Arabian Interior Minister - and has been magnified by the G20 Summit which has been billed by the USA in particular as a show down with Russia over Syria. So what I think happened is that Hosni Mubarak suffered a stroke for whatever the natural reasons are that some people suffer strokes while others don't. The medical team at the prison then resuscitated him and got him on life support as they are trained to do.
This then caused a spilt within Egypt's interim military rulers with some people thinking that it's not really the government's place to decide who lives or dies provided a court hasn't sentenced them to death. There were also people who think that he could pull through and recover. There were also people who think that Egypt could use the confusion over Mubarak's health to it's advantage - Israel did something similar with Ariel Sharon. Also the right to life/right to die issue is a highly inflammatory issue within US politics with the religious right very opposed to doctors intervening to end pregnancies (abortion) because it goes against God's will but equally opposed to doctors withdrawing treatment to people who would otherwise die without life support. Therefore it is something Egypt could possibly use to exert influence over the US. Finally there were people who thought that the divisive nature of the issue could expose the different factions of Egyptian political society to the outside world - something that would put Egypt at a disadvantage.
Sadly I simply do not have enough information to tell you what is the right answer. Ideally I would have liked to have avoided commenting on the issue as far as possible instead leaving it all a bit vague. However coming in the closing stages of the G20 Summit I felt that wasn't really an option.
Ukraine's Goal.
In football/soccer for a goal to be scored the whole of the ball has to cross the whole of the goal-line while the ball is in active play. I know this sounds simple but top players can strike the ball at speeds close to 100 kmph. This speed coupled with ricochets off the goal-posts means that there are often occasions where it is simply not possible for the human eye to tell if a goal has been scored or not. As a result the history of the sport is littered with goals that were not given and non-goals that were given. The 1966 World Cup final between England and Germany is probably one of the most talked about of these incidents especially in England and Germany.
As more and more of the top football matches are televised along with improvements with camera and computer mapping technology there has been growing calls for goal-line technology such video replays or the Hawkeye system to used to definitely say whether a goal has been scored. This idea is very popular with fans and players but the sports governing bodies especially UEFA's Micheal Platani are still opposed to the idea. For Euro2012 UEFA has compromised by putting human line judges on the goal-line.
This compromise system was put to the test during yesterday's Ukraine V England game when Ukraine's Marco Devic appeared to score an equaliser and England's John Terry appeared to clear the ball off the line. On this occasion the humans ruled that it wasn't a goal but the TV replays clearly shows it was. However it would have made no difference to the outcome of the group because France were 1-0 down to Sweden. Therefore England would have still won the group with 5 points while France and Ukraine would have tied for second place on 4 points. That tie would have been decided by the result of the game between the two teams which France won 2-0.
However this head to head results rule is in itself new with the more traditional way of breaking a points tie being goal difference (total goals scored minus total goals conceded). With France losing by only 1 goal using this measure still wouldn't have made any difference until Sweden's Sebastian Larsson scored in the 90th and final minute of the match. If we'd been using the goal-difference system this goal would have meant that Ukraine would have gone through instead of France. So I think there was an element of gamesmanship by both Sweden and France trying to put pressure on the sports governing body over goal-line technology.
Personally I'm still not convinced though for two main reasons;
As more and more of the top football matches are televised along with improvements with camera and computer mapping technology there has been growing calls for goal-line technology such video replays or the Hawkeye system to used to definitely say whether a goal has been scored. This idea is very popular with fans and players but the sports governing bodies especially UEFA's Micheal Platani are still opposed to the idea. For Euro2012 UEFA has compromised by putting human line judges on the goal-line.
This compromise system was put to the test during yesterday's Ukraine V England game when Ukraine's Marco Devic appeared to score an equaliser and England's John Terry appeared to clear the ball off the line. On this occasion the humans ruled that it wasn't a goal but the TV replays clearly shows it was. However it would have made no difference to the outcome of the group because France were 1-0 down to Sweden. Therefore England would have still won the group with 5 points while France and Ukraine would have tied for second place on 4 points. That tie would have been decided by the result of the game between the two teams which France won 2-0.
However this head to head results rule is in itself new with the more traditional way of breaking a points tie being goal difference (total goals scored minus total goals conceded). With France losing by only 1 goal using this measure still wouldn't have made any difference until Sweden's Sebastian Larsson scored in the 90th and final minute of the match. If we'd been using the goal-difference system this goal would have meant that Ukraine would have gone through instead of France. So I think there was an element of gamesmanship by both Sweden and France trying to put pressure on the sports governing body over goal-line technology.
Personally I'm still not convinced though for two main reasons;
- The goal-line is same width as the goal-posts and cross-bar that surround it. Therefore there have been a number of incidents where the goal-posts have obscured the camera's view meaning that even video replays have been unable to tell if the whole of the ball has crossed the whole of the line.
- Football is not rugby nor is cricket or tennis. The way that a lot of the teams play a counter-attacking game means that they very often draw their opponents forward in the hope of scoring then get possession from a rebound/ricochet before charging up to the other end of the pitch to score themselves. Allowing a break in play for the referee to check a video replay will completely spoil the flow of the game. Also you only need to look at how players like Christiano Ronaldo fall over for no apparent reason to see how this will be abused.
Good Morning.
At around 10:30 on Wednesday June 20th 2012: (20/6/12) I'm up and awake at pretty much the normal time I'm up and awake on a Wednesday. As far as I can tell there has been no decisive change in the either cases of Hosni Mubarak or Wikileaks founder Julian Assange however the British police have stated that if Assange is refused asylum in Ecuador he will be arrested for breaching his bail conditions.
I will though try and do some research and write both of this incidents up properly. However I have to say with the issuing of Sunday (17/6/12) night's Constitutional declaration and the certified and verified results of the Presidential run-off vote expected tomorrow (21/6/12) I'm not sure how Mubarak's health is of any major significance to Egypt's future.
Before that though I really should write up the goal-line technology argument from last night's Euro2012 fixtures. Today's bank siege in Toulouse makes me think that's actually very important to a lot of people.
I will though try and do some research and write both of this incidents up properly. However I have to say with the issuing of Sunday (17/6/12) night's Constitutional declaration and the certified and verified results of the Presidential run-off vote expected tomorrow (21/6/12) I'm not sure how Mubarak's health is of any major significance to Egypt's future.
Before that though I really should write up the goal-line technology argument from last night's Euro2012 fixtures. Today's bank siege in Toulouse makes me think that's actually very important to a lot of people.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
That's It I've Had Enough.
With 7 cans drunk and 17 left (at around 00:30 on 20/6/12) I'm going to bed. However in honour of Hosni Mubarak I'll switch off the alarm clock meaning I'll get up when I get up.
No Egypt Those 24 Cans Aren't Looking Excessive At All
So at around 23:45 on 19/6/12 while we're all waiting for US President to take to the stage at the G20 Summit I suppose I should talk to you about death. Basically most doctors I've met define "death" as the heart's inability to pump sufficient oxygen giving blood around the brain to keep it function.
Really what you want to do is get the very good Egyptian orthopedic surgeon who did the hip replacement on my elderly grandmother at the UK Epsom & St Helier NHS Trust and his anesthetist to explain explain to you exactly the effect of repeated heart attacks blocking the flow of blood to the brain. Alternatively you could just take Hosni Mubarak off his heart and lung machine and leave him to the angels.
Really what you want to do is get the very good Egyptian orthopedic surgeon who did the hip replacement on my elderly grandmother at the UK Epsom & St Helier NHS Trust and his anesthetist to explain explain to you exactly the effect of repeated heart attacks blocking the flow of blood to the brain. Alternatively you could just take Hosni Mubarak off his heart and lung machine and leave him to the angels.
F*cking C*nt
Now (at around 23:30 on 19/6/12) that my father has gone to bed I've switched on the news and apparently Hosni Mubarak is not dead but he has suffered a major stroke and is now in a coma. I think means he is brain dead. While the Egyptians are debating whether or not to turn off his life support US President Obama is about to take to the stage at the G20.
I was hoping to take the opportunity to settle goal-line technology debate once and for all but it must be said original Swedish version of "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" is calling me loudly.
I was hoping to take the opportunity to settle goal-line technology debate once and for all but it must be said original Swedish version of "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" is calling me loudly.
So Do We Reckon the Police Helicopter...
... has managed to use it's thermal imaging camera to work out the local foxes "patterns of life?" I only ask because with maximum chutzpah the Israelis this past week launched an Unmanned Ariel Vehicle (drone) that can autonomously launch a Hellfire missile attack on a terrorist camp based only on it's CPU's calculation. Unfortunately though that only brings us back to Tony Nicklinson.
So at around 16:00 local on 19/6/12 at the G20 I basically have two choices; I can either stay up, watch a movie and wait for it to break up or I can go to bed and wake up a few hours after it's broken up. Either way I'm not seeing myself doing a huge amount of work tomorrow.
Oh and Julian Assange did make it to the Ecuador Embassy in London. I believe they are still considering his application.
So at around 16:00 local on 19/6/12 at the G20 I basically have two choices; I can either stay up, watch a movie and wait for it to break up or I can go to bed and wake up a few hours after it's broken up. Either way I'm not seeing myself doing a huge amount of work tomorrow.
Oh and Julian Assange did make it to the Ecuador Embassy in London. I believe they are still considering his application.
Mubarak's Won That One Then.
In the last hour or so Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces have announced that former President Hosni Mubarak has died of a heart attack. So after being sentenced to life imprisonment he's decided to sentence himself to death. I think that compared to being allowed to retire to holiday home where the entire population of Egypt could poke him sharpened sticks that's a victory.
Of course at around 21:55 on 19/6/12 I'm not sure exactly when SCAF made their announcement because I'm trying to watch something on BBC1. This third part of a five part serial "True Love" features Billie Piper (Secret Diary of a Call Girl) as a secondary school teacher who embarks on an affair with an underage predatory lesbian (Kayla something of seasons 3/4 of Skins) pupil while trying to justify it along with an affair with a married man to her mother. I've got a nasty feeling this TV show is going to have an negative effect on a lot of significant people in my life so I would have liked to have kept an eye on it while doing some work.
However due to the argument between my Blackberry my UK service provider and Google I'm here on a PC typing this while missing that. On the plus side at least the argument about Israeli airport security has begun.
Of course at around 21:55 on 19/6/12 I'm not sure exactly when SCAF made their announcement because I'm trying to watch something on BBC1. This third part of a five part serial "True Love" features Billie Piper (Secret Diary of a Call Girl) as a secondary school teacher who embarks on an affair with an underage predatory lesbian (Kayla something of seasons 3/4 of Skins) pupil while trying to justify it along with an affair with a married man to her mother. I've got a nasty feeling this TV show is going to have an negative effect on a lot of significant people in my life so I would have liked to have kept an eye on it while doing some work.
However due to the argument between my Blackberry my UK service provider and Google I'm here on a PC typing this while missing that. On the plus side at least the argument about Israeli airport security has begun.
F*cking P*ssy!
At around 21:30 on 19/6/12 that is both a reference to my Blackberry and Julian Assange founder or Wikileaks.
Although the news hasn't fully hit the Internet yet I've heard that Mr Assange has this evening sought refugee status in Ecuador in South America. However I've also heard that he messed that up by going to the London Embassy of one those G countries (probably Guyana) and now Ecuador are considering he application. Last I heard he was shilling for the Russians but I believe it's his desire to stay out of a Swedish prison that driving him these days.
Although the news hasn't fully hit the Internet yet I've heard that Mr Assange has this evening sought refugee status in Ecuador in South America. However I've also heard that he messed that up by going to the London Embassy of one those G countries (probably Guyana) and now Ecuador are considering he application. Last I heard he was shilling for the Russians but I believe it's his desire to stay out of a Swedish prison that driving him these days.
England Are Through.
And although I saw the last ten minutes I've got no idea how but I believe there was an argument about goal-line technology in there somewhere. Anyway England beat Ukraine 1-0 while Sweden beat France 2-0. As a result England go through as group winners with 7 points while France go through as group runners-up with 4 points. France will play Spain in the third quarter final on Saturday (23/6/12) while England will play Italy in the fourth quarter final on Sunday (24/6/12). If you want me to talk about it in pure footballing terms I'll be going to put a bet on now.
Before I do that though I should declare and interest in today's out come. If England came second I could have gone down to Brighton to watch the game on Saturday and stayed over until Sunday. However because they came first I'll be going down to Brighton to watch the game on Saturday and staying over until Sunday at which point we'll decide whether or not my friend has to go to work at around 02:00 local on Monday (25/6/12). As this driving job forces him to make deliveries to the Tower of London and Kensington Palace amongst others I'm sure it'll be fine for him to phone in dead.
Oh and of course it's around 21:50 on 19/6/12 and I'm writing this on a PC.
Before I do that though I should declare and interest in today's out come. If England came second I could have gone down to Brighton to watch the game on Saturday and stayed over until Sunday. However because they came first I'll be going down to Brighton to watch the game on Saturday and staying over until Sunday at which point we'll decide whether or not my friend has to go to work at around 02:00 local on Monday (25/6/12). As this driving job forces him to make deliveries to the Tower of London and Kensington Palace amongst others I'm sure it'll be fine for him to phone in dead.
Oh and of course it's around 21:50 on 19/6/12 and I'm writing this on a PC.
Does it Count if i'm Thinking About it?
Because I know it's nil nil in both games but so far I've failed to write the fox story.
However at around 19:45 on 19/6/12 my Blackberry's working.
However at around 19:45 on 19/6/12 my Blackberry's working.
Ding! Dong! Avon Calling.
There I was deciding what to do for the England game (at around 18:50 on 19/6/12) when all of a sudden and Indian woman in a headscarf appeared with two primary school (4-11 aged) children in my grandmother's front garden. Now this could have been;
So at around 19:10 on 19/6/12 do we think we've finished off the EDL yet because I'm pretty sure I could have come up with the foxy half-time talk and maybe I still will if my phone works and you know I don't just pass out on the floor.
- Just an Avon Lady or;
- Relatives of the Pakistani family that are currently in the process of purchasing #52 checking the bounds or;
- Relatives of the local corner shop whose son has recently started selling beer but they're really not sure or;
- A highly elaborate Indian intelligence operation to force me to grass up Pakistan by expanding on the old Obama drone program. In which case be patient.
So at around 19:10 on 19/6/12 do we think we've finished off the EDL yet because I'm pretty sure I could have come up with the foxy half-time talk and maybe I still will if my phone works and you know I don't just pass out on the floor.
Oooh I've Got a Lovely Joint On.
Brisket with all the trimmings.
So while I'm waiting for my potatoes to boil ( At around 17:15 on 19/6/12)I suppose I should at least mention the Tony Nicklinson case. If you're not familiar with the name consider yourself lucky it's just Britain trying to cause chaos and confusion at the G20. It's got very little to do with me or my grandmother. Instead it's about Britain's plans to further legislate against the Internet/twitter in the name of cracking down on defamation/trolls and Obama's controversial drone program. The latter is something I also object to but probably for very different reasons.
As for the football while I was at the supermarket I also brought some ball shaped dog toys for the foxes. So I'm either going to turn that into the greatest halftime talk in the history of halftime talks or decide it's all to much of a muchness and go sit in the garden. After all metaphysics and existentialism - that always helps(!)
So while I'm waiting for my potatoes to boil ( At around 17:15 on 19/6/12)I suppose I should at least mention the Tony Nicklinson case. If you're not familiar with the name consider yourself lucky it's just Britain trying to cause chaos and confusion at the G20. It's got very little to do with me or my grandmother. Instead it's about Britain's plans to further legislate against the Internet/twitter in the name of cracking down on defamation/trolls and Obama's controversial drone program. The latter is something I also object to but probably for very different reasons.
As for the football while I was at the supermarket I also brought some ball shaped dog toys for the foxes. So I'm either going to turn that into the greatest halftime talk in the history of halftime talks or decide it's all to much of a muchness and go sit in the garden. After all metaphysics and existentialism - that always helps(!)
I'm Back From the Supermarket/Food Shopping
I actually got back at around 14:25 on 19/6/12 but I didn't feel the need to mention it. However since then I've learned that on the edges of the G20 USA and Russia are discussing Syria and a Russian ship supposedly heading for Syria has returned to it's home port. I really can't be bothered to list everything I brought but on reflection the full 24 can case of Stella 4% might prove excessive.
Speaking of football preparations there are rumors that Russian ultras are teaming up with England hooligans to do battle with Ukrainian ultras. I think this is just rumour to promote discussion about whether or not Russia played politics by crashing out to Greece to set up the Germany V Greece game. I think the answer to that is yes and no. It was the Poland game that did for Russia and after that they just got caught up in the excitement of the Greek election and went for it.
Oh and I'm typing this on my Blackberry because I need the practice.
Speaking of football preparations there are rumors that Russian ultras are teaming up with England hooligans to do battle with Ukrainian ultras. I think this is just rumour to promote discussion about whether or not Russia played politics by crashing out to Greece to set up the Germany V Greece game. I think the answer to that is yes and no. It was the Poland game that did for Russia and after that they just got caught up in the excitement of the Greek election and went for it.
Oh and I'm typing this on my Blackberry because I need the practice.
I'm Still on G20 Time.
Basically this involves keeping quiet and offline while the G20 Summit is in session in Los Cabos, Mexico (GMT-7). This is quite annoying because I would like to be getting on with the constitutional declaration that was issued by Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces on Sunday (17/6/12).
Although I have now obtained a hard copy of the declaration it is one of those things that requires careful reading and even more careful consideration. However based on the first reading it is nowhere near as dramatic as the Muslim Brotherhood would have you believe;
In other news I'm going food shopping this afternoon and in a change of routine my father and I won't be going to the pub this Tuesday (19/6/12) evening. It would be nice to pretend that this was because of the G20 Summit but it's not. It's because of the Ukraine V England Euro2012 game which I may or may not watch. However it's just a little under 9 hours until kick-off and already I'm starting to err towards may not.
Although I have now obtained a hard copy of the declaration it is one of those things that requires careful reading and even more careful consideration. However based on the first reading it is nowhere near as dramatic as the Muslim Brotherhood would have you believe;
- Article 30 simply puts in place a procedure to allow a President to be sworn into office without a sitting Parliament.
- Article 53 simply puts in the separation between the military and the President that exists in most democratic countries to prevent the President using the military to attack anti-President demonstrations like Mubarak did.
- Article 56B gives the military the ability to run the country until a new constitution is written.
- Article 60B gives the military the power to intervene and appoint a panel to write that new constitution something that Parliament has repeatedly and collectively failed to do over the past six months.
In other news I'm going food shopping this afternoon and in a change of routine my father and I won't be going to the pub this Tuesday (19/6/12) evening. It would be nice to pretend that this was because of the G20 Summit but it's not. It's because of the Ukraine V England Euro2012 game which I may or may not watch. However it's just a little under 9 hours until kick-off and already I'm starting to err towards may not.
Spain's Borrowing Costs.
Yesterday (18/6/12) an auction of Spanish bonds saw the cost of the interest on the nations debt rise to 7.3% which is very close to the level at which Portugal, Ireland and Greece were all locked out of the debt markets and forced to seek bailouts from the European Union (EU)/International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This is obviously market retaliation for the EU's refusal to flinch over the prospect of Sunday's (17/6/12) election result forcing Greece out of the Eurozone rather then any legitimate concern about the Spanish economy. However the justification the markets are using for the move is that the USD125billion bailout of Spanish banks that was announced on June 9th (9/6/12) will take the form of an EU loan which adds to the nation's sovereign debt and this new loan will take priority over any privately held bonds in the repayment queue.
As the June 9th bailout was itself mainly bravado on the EU's part it may now be worth considering redefining it's terms so it is classified below private bonds in the repayment queue. It is also worth considering whether it is all entirely necessary. After all the decision made at the emergency G20 Summit in London in April 2009 was the root cause of the current Eurozone crisis by making national economies responsible for the debts of private banks pushing the levels of sovereign debt to unsustainable levels in many countries.
This is obviously market retaliation for the EU's refusal to flinch over the prospect of Sunday's (17/6/12) election result forcing Greece out of the Eurozone rather then any legitimate concern about the Spanish economy. However the justification the markets are using for the move is that the USD125billion bailout of Spanish banks that was announced on June 9th (9/6/12) will take the form of an EU loan which adds to the nation's sovereign debt and this new loan will take priority over any privately held bonds in the repayment queue.
As the June 9th bailout was itself mainly bravado on the EU's part it may now be worth considering redefining it's terms so it is classified below private bonds in the repayment queue. It is also worth considering whether it is all entirely necessary. After all the decision made at the emergency G20 Summit in London in April 2009 was the root cause of the current Eurozone crisis by making national economies responsible for the debts of private banks pushing the levels of sovereign debt to unsustainable levels in many countries.
Monday, 18 June 2012
See Worst of Both Worlds.
At around 09:30 on 18/6/12 I'm not up early enough to do anything productive but up just early enough to get myself into trouble. So emergencies permitting I'll be lying low for the duration of the two day G20 Summit
Sunday, 17 June 2012
That's It I'm Going to Bed.
Unless of course US President Obama appears on my TV in the next five minutes. However at around 22:30 on 17/6/12 that's not a promise that I will be up and doing the G20 Summit properly. After all in word association games the "getting up early" rarely follow the word "cannabis." Actually I'm seriously considering trying to sleep through the entire thing.
And We're Back Up.
At around 21:20 on 17/6/12 my home Internet connection is working. So anyway;
Today my little brother suddenly decided that he was coming up to dinner. Possibly this is because it's UK father's day. Possibly this is because it's the day of the Euro threatening (no really) result of the Greek Parliamentary election and last week he had a 150 word piece in "City AM" a London free-sheet aimed at the financial markets. Either way I got stoned and somehow magically turned Friday night's stew into Sunday night's dinner before we all played a game called "Ssshh! Football."
While we were watching the Portugal V Netherlands Euro2012 game Germany scored against Denmark in the other group B match. So I immediately switched channels just as they were showing a replay of the goal in the Portugal V Netherlands game. Then while we were watching the Germany V Denmark game there was a goal in the Portugal V Netherlands match and no-one showed a replay. It was at this point that we decided that with an iPhone, a Galaxy smart-phone, an Android tablet and a Wi-Fi home Internet connection surely we could watch one game on TV and the other on one of the devices. Sadly this seems to have made the home Internet connection cry. But it's working now and that's the main thing even though we seem to be in the midst of one of those forced crunch points.
In the Greek Parliamentary election the full results are not yet available but during half-time in the football anti-EU SYRIZA conceded defeat but to whom we are not sure. Pro-EU NEW DEMOCRACY seem to have come first but have fallen short of a governing majority so will have to try and negotiate a formal coalition with pro-EU PASOK.
The formal results of the Egyptian Presidential run-off are not scheduled until Thursday (21/6/12) but the rumour is that tomorrow (18/6/12) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will make a constitutional declaration. Although they've yet to email a copy to my Blackberry I suspect that this will be them defining the constitution that will be used during the upcoming round of Parliamentary elections in order to avoid the Muslim Brotherhood confusing the Supreme Constitutional Court for a second time.
As for the French Parliamentary elections I haven't got a clue so it looks like it's going to be a long night. That's a shame because the time difference between London and Mexico means that I could feasibly be up and had research done in time to make a decent post before the start of the G20.
Today my little brother suddenly decided that he was coming up to dinner. Possibly this is because it's UK father's day. Possibly this is because it's the day of the Euro threatening (no really) result of the Greek Parliamentary election and last week he had a 150 word piece in "City AM" a London free-sheet aimed at the financial markets. Either way I got stoned and somehow magically turned Friday night's stew into Sunday night's dinner before we all played a game called "Ssshh! Football."
While we were watching the Portugal V Netherlands Euro2012 game Germany scored against Denmark in the other group B match. So I immediately switched channels just as they were showing a replay of the goal in the Portugal V Netherlands game. Then while we were watching the Germany V Denmark game there was a goal in the Portugal V Netherlands match and no-one showed a replay. It was at this point that we decided that with an iPhone, a Galaxy smart-phone, an Android tablet and a Wi-Fi home Internet connection surely we could watch one game on TV and the other on one of the devices. Sadly this seems to have made the home Internet connection cry. But it's working now and that's the main thing even though we seem to be in the midst of one of those forced crunch points.
In the Greek Parliamentary election the full results are not yet available but during half-time in the football anti-EU SYRIZA conceded defeat but to whom we are not sure. Pro-EU NEW DEMOCRACY seem to have come first but have fallen short of a governing majority so will have to try and negotiate a formal coalition with pro-EU PASOK.
The formal results of the Egyptian Presidential run-off are not scheduled until Thursday (21/6/12) but the rumour is that tomorrow (18/6/12) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will make a constitutional declaration. Although they've yet to email a copy to my Blackberry I suspect that this will be them defining the constitution that will be used during the upcoming round of Parliamentary elections in order to avoid the Muslim Brotherhood confusing the Supreme Constitutional Court for a second time.
As for the French Parliamentary elections I haven't got a clue so it looks like it's going to be a long night. That's a shame because the time difference between London and Mexico means that I could feasibly be up and had research done in time to make a decent post before the start of the G20.
Still No Internet
Although my Blackberry has re-charged. However the lack of a decent keyboard means you are being prevented from hearing the story of how my brother came down today(17/6/12) as I talk about football;
Portugal beat the Dutch while Germany beat Denmark. Therefore the 2nd quarter final will be a poor game between Germany and Greece in Euro2012. Portugal forced the fixture and Germany said; "Bring it on!" Personally I think these things should be settled on goal difference.
Anyway at this rate I don't think I'm going to be allowed to cover the Greek Parliamentary.
Portugal beat the Dutch while Germany beat Denmark. Therefore the 2nd quarter final will be a poor game between Germany and Greece in Euro2012. Portugal forced the fixture and Germany said; "Bring it on!" Personally I think these things should be settled on goal difference.
Anyway at this rate I don't think I'm going to be allowed to cover the Greek Parliamentary.
This is Starting to Get Silly.
The full results of today's (17/6/12) Greek Parliamentary election won't be available until the very early morning tomorrow (18/6/12) which is Sunday evening Mexico/G20 time. However the first exit polls are out and at the top end of their estimates they show New Democracy winning with 30% of the vote, SYRIZA coming second with 27% of the vote and PASOK coming third with 12% of the vote.
Obviously we still need to see if these estimates are accurate and being Parliamentary election how they translate into seats won. However it looks as though New Democracy and PASOK will fall just short of being able to form a coalition government and will not work with SYRIZA. The hard left SYRIZA coalition will then have to try and form a governing coalition with all the other parties including the fascist Golden Dawn Party. So basically we're in exactly the same position we were six weeks ago and Greece is headed for yet another election during which time no work can be done to fix Greece's stricken economy
Seriously at this point wouldn't it just have been easier to stick with the government of national unity?
Obviously we still need to see if these estimates are accurate and being Parliamentary election how they translate into seats won. However it looks as though New Democracy and PASOK will fall just short of being able to form a coalition government and will not work with SYRIZA. The hard left SYRIZA coalition will then have to try and form a governing coalition with all the other parties including the fascist Golden Dawn Party. So basically we're in exactly the same position we were six weeks ago and Greece is headed for yet another election during which time no work can be done to fix Greece's stricken economy
Seriously at this point wouldn't it just have been easier to stick with the government of national unity?
Saturday, 16 June 2012
And It's Egypt For the Hat-trick.
Although no official announcement has been made the Secretary General of the lower house of Egypt's Parliament the Peoples Assembly has today (16/6/12) informed the media that he has received an official notice from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that the Peoples Assembly has been dissolved in accordance with Thursday's (14/6/12) ruling by the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC).
As no official announcement has been made obviously no date for a fresh round of Parliamentary elections has been set. Egypt is currently in the very middle of two days of voting in the Presidential run-off vote and there are very real concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood will react with street violence and public disorder if their candidate, Mohamed Morsy loses. Therefore I think it is fair to say that Egypt's interim military rulers are very busy at the moment so I am prepared to give them seven days until Sunday June 24th (24/6/12) to announce the date of the next election. However if they are able to set a new election date before the results of the Presidential run-off are announced on Thursday (21/6/12) it will significantly reduce the risk of violence.
In the meantime rather then protesting the dissolution of Parliament Egypt's secular revolutionary parties should start working together to form electoral pacts. That is to say they agree that only one of them should stand a candidate in each of the 27 constituencies. This will prevent the secular revolutionary vote being diluted as it was during both the first Parliamentary election and the first round of the Presidential vote increasing the number of secular members in the Peoples Assembly and hopefully breaking the deadlock over the writing of the new constitution.
As no official announcement has been made obviously no date for a fresh round of Parliamentary elections has been set. Egypt is currently in the very middle of two days of voting in the Presidential run-off vote and there are very real concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood will react with street violence and public disorder if their candidate, Mohamed Morsy loses. Therefore I think it is fair to say that Egypt's interim military rulers are very busy at the moment so I am prepared to give them seven days until Sunday June 24th (24/6/12) to announce the date of the next election. However if they are able to set a new election date before the results of the Presidential run-off are announced on Thursday (21/6/12) it will significantly reduce the risk of violence.
In the meantime rather then protesting the dissolution of Parliament Egypt's secular revolutionary parties should start working together to form electoral pacts. That is to say they agree that only one of them should stand a candidate in each of the 27 constituencies. This will prevent the secular revolutionary vote being diluted as it was during both the first Parliamentary election and the first round of the Presidential vote increasing the number of secular members in the Peoples Assembly and hopefully breaking the deadlock over the writing of the new constitution.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 17, Week 2, Day 1.
On Sunday June 3rd (3/6/12) the al-Awfea militia seized control of Tripoli International Airport demanding the release of one of their members who had been arrested by the National Transitional Council (NTC). They seemed to be trying to copy the example set by the Zintan Brigade militia who used control of the airport as a bargaining chip to force the NTC to try Saif al-Islam Qaddafi in Libya rather then hand him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC). On this occasion though the NTC were having none of it and quickly used force to successfully regain control of the airport. To my mind that was the correct course of action to take because Libya has no chance of becoming the stable and prosperous nation it should be if the soon to be elected government are constantly being forced to negotiate with armed but unelected militias and warlords.
This apparent change of approach by the NTC has got the Zintan Brigade worried that now they no longer control the airport the NTC might hand Saif al-Islam over to the ICC anyway. In response on June 7th (7/6/12) the Zintan Brigade arrested Melinda Taylor, a lawyer who'd been appointed by the ICC to represent Saif al-Islam, on a trumped up charge of passing him a letter from a friend. As Ms Taylor's detention has continued the Zintan Brigade have gone on to claim that the letter contained GPS co-ordinates for the location of Mohamed Ismail and they will release Ms Taylor as soon as she gives them Mr Ismail's location. I simply do not believe this because as a prisoner of the Zintan Brigade Saif al-Islam would have no need to know Mr Ismail's location and if, as the Zintan Brigade claim, the letter contains the co-ordinates of Mr Ismail's location they do not need Ms Taylor to tell them that location. Instead I think the Zintan Brigade are simply making the whole thing up and effectively holding Ms Taylor as a hostage in order to force the ICC to give up it's right to try Saif al-Islam.
Also the fact that the Zintan Brigade seem to think that the passing of a letter is a legitimate reason to arrest a lawyer is deeply worrying. In order to mount the defence needed for a fair trial the accused has the right to speak to their lawyer in private safe in the knowledge that the content of those conversations will not be passed onto their prosecutors/jailers. This is known as attorney-client privilege. Prisoners whether convicted or not also have the right to send and receive letters to people in the outside world. The fact that the Zintan Brigade are not aware of things like this only leaves me more convinced that Saif al-Islam will not receive anything even vaguely resembling a fair trial in Libya.
On June 4th (4/6/12) the Libyan born Al-Qaeda second in command Abu Yahya Al-Libi was apparently killed in a US drone strike in northern Pakistan. On June 6th (6/6/12) an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) exploded outside US diplomatic offices in Benghazi. A Jihadist group calling themselves the Imprisoned Omar Abdul Rahman Brigades immediately claimed responsibility for the attack as revenge for the killing of Al-Libi. The US immediately denied this claiming that there was no evidence linking the attack to the group and the Jihadists were only claiming responsibility in order too boost their profile. Now this could be the case or it could be the US trying to cover up the fact that by intervening in Libya they succeeded in turning the south-west of the country into a hot-bed for Al-Qaeda activity and given the group effective control over a country in the size of France in Azawad/northern-Mali. Since the US denial there has been a wave of similar attacks including an IED blast at offices of International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Misrata on 12/6/12 and a Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG) attack on a convoy carrying the British Ambassador Sir Dominic Asquith in Benghazi on 11/6/12. These attacks seem to be linked to the multitude of foreign intelligence agencies that still operate freely throughout Libya and are trying to put pressure on the US to clarify their position on the June 6th attack.
Against this chaotic background the NTC have postponed the election for the National Congress (Parliament) that had been scheduled for June 19th (19/6/12) due to what I think are legitimate logistical and security problems. The election will now be held on July 7th (7/7/12). My understanding is that voter registration for this election has now closed so any Libyan who has not yet registered will not be allowed to vote. However I wouldn't get too worried about this because I suspect there will be another election in about a year as Libyans gain experience in government and democracy.
A good example of the progress they are making was the Supreme Court's decision on June 14th (14/6/12) to strike down Law 137. The so-called "anti-glorification law" Law 137 made it illegal for anyone to praise Muammer Qaddafi, his sons, his ideas or his regime. Although I'm not particularly bothered whether anyone praises Qaddafi or not in terms freedom passing a law banning people from praising Qaddafi is no different from passing a law saying people must praise him. The fact that the Libyan courts are beginning to think in these terms shows that they are moving away from the attitudes of the war years and towards the values of democracy and freedom.
This apparent change of approach by the NTC has got the Zintan Brigade worried that now they no longer control the airport the NTC might hand Saif al-Islam over to the ICC anyway. In response on June 7th (7/6/12) the Zintan Brigade arrested Melinda Taylor, a lawyer who'd been appointed by the ICC to represent Saif al-Islam, on a trumped up charge of passing him a letter from a friend. As Ms Taylor's detention has continued the Zintan Brigade have gone on to claim that the letter contained GPS co-ordinates for the location of Mohamed Ismail and they will release Ms Taylor as soon as she gives them Mr Ismail's location. I simply do not believe this because as a prisoner of the Zintan Brigade Saif al-Islam would have no need to know Mr Ismail's location and if, as the Zintan Brigade claim, the letter contains the co-ordinates of Mr Ismail's location they do not need Ms Taylor to tell them that location. Instead I think the Zintan Brigade are simply making the whole thing up and effectively holding Ms Taylor as a hostage in order to force the ICC to give up it's right to try Saif al-Islam.
Also the fact that the Zintan Brigade seem to think that the passing of a letter is a legitimate reason to arrest a lawyer is deeply worrying. In order to mount the defence needed for a fair trial the accused has the right to speak to their lawyer in private safe in the knowledge that the content of those conversations will not be passed onto their prosecutors/jailers. This is known as attorney-client privilege. Prisoners whether convicted or not also have the right to send and receive letters to people in the outside world. The fact that the Zintan Brigade are not aware of things like this only leaves me more convinced that Saif al-Islam will not receive anything even vaguely resembling a fair trial in Libya.
On June 4th (4/6/12) the Libyan born Al-Qaeda second in command Abu Yahya Al-Libi was apparently killed in a US drone strike in northern Pakistan. On June 6th (6/6/12) an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) exploded outside US diplomatic offices in Benghazi. A Jihadist group calling themselves the Imprisoned Omar Abdul Rahman Brigades immediately claimed responsibility for the attack as revenge for the killing of Al-Libi. The US immediately denied this claiming that there was no evidence linking the attack to the group and the Jihadists were only claiming responsibility in order too boost their profile. Now this could be the case or it could be the US trying to cover up the fact that by intervening in Libya they succeeded in turning the south-west of the country into a hot-bed for Al-Qaeda activity and given the group effective control over a country in the size of France in Azawad/northern-Mali. Since the US denial there has been a wave of similar attacks including an IED blast at offices of International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Misrata on 12/6/12 and a Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG) attack on a convoy carrying the British Ambassador Sir Dominic Asquith in Benghazi on 11/6/12. These attacks seem to be linked to the multitude of foreign intelligence agencies that still operate freely throughout Libya and are trying to put pressure on the US to clarify their position on the June 6th attack.
Against this chaotic background the NTC have postponed the election for the National Congress (Parliament) that had been scheduled for June 19th (19/6/12) due to what I think are legitimate logistical and security problems. The election will now be held on July 7th (7/7/12). My understanding is that voter registration for this election has now closed so any Libyan who has not yet registered will not be allowed to vote. However I wouldn't get too worried about this because I suspect there will be another election in about a year as Libyans gain experience in government and democracy.
A good example of the progress they are making was the Supreme Court's decision on June 14th (14/6/12) to strike down Law 137. The so-called "anti-glorification law" Law 137 made it illegal for anyone to praise Muammer Qaddafi, his sons, his ideas or his regime. Although I'm not particularly bothered whether anyone praises Qaddafi or not in terms freedom passing a law banning people from praising Qaddafi is no different from passing a law saying people must praise him. The fact that the Libyan courts are beginning to think in these terms shows that they are moving away from the attitudes of the war years and towards the values of democracy and freedom.
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 2, Day 3.
Today (16/6/12) the United Nations Supervision Mission In Syria (UNSMIS) has suspended it's observer mission. Although UNSMIS personnel will remain in the country they will stay confined to their hotels/barracks. The suspension of operations will be reviewed on a day to day basis.
However now that the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) have withdrawn from the Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan's six point peace plan there is no ceasefire for the observers to monitor. In fact the only way I can envisage the mission continuing is by having it's mandate changed to allow it to support the Syrian government in ending the insurgency - something which due to the foreign support for the insurgency the UN's own charter requires it to do.
Something needs to be done soon though because I can quite easily see the death toll spiraling out of control to over one million dead. So if the US' Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice is serious about preventing another Bosnian or Rwandan genocide her moment is now.
However now that the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) have withdrawn from the Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan's six point peace plan there is no ceasefire for the observers to monitor. In fact the only way I can envisage the mission continuing is by having it's mandate changed to allow it to support the Syrian government in ending the insurgency - something which due to the foreign support for the insurgency the UN's own charter requires it to do.
Something needs to be done soon though because I can quite easily see the death toll spiraling out of control to over one million dead. So if the US' Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice is serious about preventing another Bosnian or Rwandan genocide her moment is now.
Friday, 15 June 2012
Cheeky Git.
Now that at around 00:30 on 16/6/12 I've had a beer and watched the Euro2012 highlights I'm going to bed because I simply can't take the original Swedish version of "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" on Film4. Not least because it finishes around 03:00 local and I've got it on DVD.
I Really Need to Go to Bed Now.
Because according to the Libyan small ads there's a dealer in Buckinghamshire who's got an armoured Toyota Land Cruiser available for around USD160,000. However as it comes in Olympic gold rather then the more traditional United Nations (UN) white they may have to knock it down by around USD120,000.
At this point I'm just glad they haven't got one click ordering because at around 23:30 on 15/6/12 I seriously need to have a beer and try and to go to bed. After all it looks like I'm going to working on a Saturday much to my displeasure.
At this point I'm just glad they haven't got one click ordering because at around 23:30 on 15/6/12 I seriously need to have a beer and try and to go to bed. After all it looks like I'm going to working on a Saturday much to my displeasure.
Balls.
It seems that despite my best efforts I seem to be slipping into Mexican time. So at around 22:46 on 15/6/12 I've got this sudden urge to attend to my archive because I am starting to worry about the frequency by which Libya is getting bumped. Alternatively though I might just drink beer and look at porn.
Blimey That Was Shocker!
I always knew that on paper they could do it but England always play Sweden and England always draw with Sweden. So I genuinely thought that about now (21:00 15/6/12) France would be on 4 points, Sweden would be on 1 point while Ukraine would be on 3 points and England would be on 2 points setting up a brutal game between Ukraine and England to see who's still welcome Europe on Tuesday (19/6/12) while I'm at the pub.
Turns out that's not what happened though so if things like this I might have to start considering making travel plans.
Turns out that's not what happened though so if things like this I might have to start considering making travel plans.
Sexual Politics: That Always Helps(!)
The Ukraine V France Euro2012 match re-started at around 17:00 on 15/6/12. With France 2-0 up with stoppage time left to play I think it's fair to say that France have won. The Sweden V England game has been put back to a 19:00 kick off.
In the meantime though I'm pretty sure I've already explained the Julian Assange, Wikileaks, Bradley Manning thing to you. However if you haven't heard either yesterday or today at the British Supreme Court/Law Lords Julian Assange lost his final appeal against extradition to the Sweden for questioning over an alleged rape/sexual assault. He will now be transferred to Sweden to act as bait for the USA's right wing.
What I might have failed to mention is that the case first broke during the COP16/CMP6 in Mexico. This was the Climate Change Summit where everyone finally gave the Saudi Arabi j"v Xy/J]ssage that even as a joke it wasn't OK to go around telling much more qualified female delegates to get back in the kitchen
Anyway at around 18:50 to it's time for me to be off to the garden. Like I said 0-2.
In the meantime though I'm pretty sure I've already explained the Julian Assange, Wikileaks, Bradley Manning thing to you. However if you haven't heard either yesterday or today at the British Supreme Court/Law Lords Julian Assange lost his final appeal against extradition to the Sweden for questioning over an alleged rape/sexual assault. He will now be transferred to Sweden to act as bait for the USA's right wing.
What I might have failed to mention is that the case first broke during the COP16/CMP6 in Mexico. This was the Climate Change Summit where everyone finally gave the Saudi Arabi j"v Xy/J]ssage that even as a joke it wasn't OK to go around telling much more qualified female delegates to get back in the kitchen
Anyway at around 18:50 to it's time for me to be off to the garden. Like I said 0-2.
Result!
The Ukraine V France Euro2012 match has been suspended due to what looks like very heavy rain. At around 16:10 on 15/6/12 this is exactly the moment I need to start cooking. So just try and imagine how painful this coming week's Rio+20 Conference on the environment is going to be.
As for me I should be fine, I'll get dinner on, the match will re-start and then I'll watch some football or possibly go sit in the garden. We'll see how the evening goes.
As for me I should be fine, I'll get dinner on, the match will re-start and then I'll watch some football or possibly go sit in the garden. We'll see how the evening goes.
The Ruling on Egypt's Parliament.
As previously mentioned yesterday (14/6/12) Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) ruled that parts of the election for Egypt's lower house of Parliament (Peoples Assembly) were inconsistent with Egypt's 1971 constitution and gave the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces the authority to dissolve the Parliament if they so wish.
I have to start by saying that I've had a lot of difficulty finding out exactly what the SCC's ruling was because they do not seem to have published a copy of their ruling in either Arabic or English. In a democratic country this is simply not acceptable. If a Court is going to over-rule the will of the people it must immediately publish a judgement explaining it's decision, the exact law under which it was being asked to make it's decision and the detailed reasoning behind it's decision.
However from what I have been able to piece together the part of the electoral process that the SCC had a problem with were rules that reserved one third of seats in the Peoples Assembly for independent rather party candidates. Although under Hosni Mubarak the Muslim Brotherhood gained a lot of experience in disguising party candidates as independents this rule seems to have been specifically designed to limit the number of seats that the Brotherhood's Freedom & Justice Party could contest and therefore win. As a result the SCC's decision to overturn this rule is likely to help the Muslim Brotherhood more then any other group. Also giving Egypt's interim military rulers the authority to dissolve Parliament does leave it open to accusations of mounting anti-democratic coup. Therefore I'm now convinced my earlier assessment was correct and the Muslim Brotherhood have managed to unduly influence the SCC's decision in order to increase their chances of winning this weekend's Presidential run-off vote.
The reason that the Brotherhood have resorted to these extreme and undemocratic tactics is that pressure has steadily been mounting on the Islamist dominated Peoples Assembly over the appointment of a panel to write Egypt's new constitution. This has really been the one and only job of Parliament since it's election in January 2012. However over the following six months the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour Party have more or less blocked appointments to this panel in order to ensure that it is dominated by Islamists and Egypt gets a Sharia rather then democratic constitution. The Military set a deadline of June 7th (7/6/12) for Parliament to start work on final preparations for that panel. That deadline was met but still little progress has been made leading many in Egypt to suggest that the military needs to dissolve Parliament and allow the people to elect a new one in order to break the deadlock. The Brotherhood seem to be trying to force this decision in order to make the military look undemocratic.
As for the issue of the military dissolving Parliament I don't think Egypt's quite at the point that has become necessary just yet. However I do not have a problem with it in theory provided that on the same day the military announce that Parliament is to be dissolved they also announce the date (normally within around 6 weeks) that an election will be held to elect a new Parliament.
After all the entire point of democracy is that if the politicians are not doing what the people want the people can quite easily get rid of them. The recent recall election of Governor Scott Walker in the US state of Wisconsin is a timely example of how this can happen without the involvement of a military council.
I have to start by saying that I've had a lot of difficulty finding out exactly what the SCC's ruling was because they do not seem to have published a copy of their ruling in either Arabic or English. In a democratic country this is simply not acceptable. If a Court is going to over-rule the will of the people it must immediately publish a judgement explaining it's decision, the exact law under which it was being asked to make it's decision and the detailed reasoning behind it's decision.
However from what I have been able to piece together the part of the electoral process that the SCC had a problem with were rules that reserved one third of seats in the Peoples Assembly for independent rather party candidates. Although under Hosni Mubarak the Muslim Brotherhood gained a lot of experience in disguising party candidates as independents this rule seems to have been specifically designed to limit the number of seats that the Brotherhood's Freedom & Justice Party could contest and therefore win. As a result the SCC's decision to overturn this rule is likely to help the Muslim Brotherhood more then any other group. Also giving Egypt's interim military rulers the authority to dissolve Parliament does leave it open to accusations of mounting anti-democratic coup. Therefore I'm now convinced my earlier assessment was correct and the Muslim Brotherhood have managed to unduly influence the SCC's decision in order to increase their chances of winning this weekend's Presidential run-off vote.
The reason that the Brotherhood have resorted to these extreme and undemocratic tactics is that pressure has steadily been mounting on the Islamist dominated Peoples Assembly over the appointment of a panel to write Egypt's new constitution. This has really been the one and only job of Parliament since it's election in January 2012. However over the following six months the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour Party have more or less blocked appointments to this panel in order to ensure that it is dominated by Islamists and Egypt gets a Sharia rather then democratic constitution. The Military set a deadline of June 7th (7/6/12) for Parliament to start work on final preparations for that panel. That deadline was met but still little progress has been made leading many in Egypt to suggest that the military needs to dissolve Parliament and allow the people to elect a new one in order to break the deadlock. The Brotherhood seem to be trying to force this decision in order to make the military look undemocratic.
As for the issue of the military dissolving Parliament I don't think Egypt's quite at the point that has become necessary just yet. However I do not have a problem with it in theory provided that on the same day the military announce that Parliament is to be dissolved they also announce the date (normally within around 6 weeks) that an election will be held to elect a new Parliament.
After all the entire point of democracy is that if the politicians are not doing what the people want the people can quite easily get rid of them. The recent recall election of Governor Scott Walker in the US state of Wisconsin is a timely example of how this can happen without the involvement of a military council.
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Egypt is Giving Me a Brain-ache.
Today (14/6/12) Egypt's Supreme Court ruled that the election of one third the lower house of Parliament had been unlawful and called for Parliament to be dissolved. Crucially though they have not actually dissolve Parliament instead leaving that decision to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces just two days before the Presidential run-off vote.
Obviously I haven't had a chance to examine the courts ruling in any sort of detail however what I think has happened is that either a Mubarak loyalist or a Muslim Brother* has infiltrated the Supreme Court and is using it in an attempt to make the military look bad so the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate wins the Presidential election.
I will try and look at the issue in more detail tomorrow although I was hoping to do a bit of work on Libya where there have also been exciting developments.
*It's hard to explain what exactly the Muslim Brotherhood are because they're just the Muslim Brotherhood. However rather then being an out and out political organisation they're more like the Freemasons or perhaps more accurately the Orange Order.
Obviously I haven't had a chance to examine the courts ruling in any sort of detail however what I think has happened is that either a Mubarak loyalist or a Muslim Brother* has infiltrated the Supreme Court and is using it in an attempt to make the military look bad so the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate wins the Presidential election.
I will try and look at the issue in more detail tomorrow although I was hoping to do a bit of work on Libya where there have also been exciting developments.
*It's hard to explain what exactly the Muslim Brotherhood are because they're just the Muslim Brotherhood. However rather then being an out and out political organisation they're more like the Freemasons or perhaps more accurately the Orange Order.
Operation Ostrava: Month 16, Week 2, Day 1-2.
Today (14/6/12) the British based pressure group Amnesty International (AI) released a highly partisan report on Syria entitled; "Deadly Reprisals: Deliberate Killings and Other Abuses by the Syrian Armed Forces." This report covered the period including the al-Houla massacre of May 25th (25/5/12). However it fails to comment on that incident as AI backs down from it's earlier public statements blaming the atrocity on the Syria government. That is because now independent, international investigators have been able to visit the scene a very different picture of the massacre has emerged.
It now looks as though apart from the twenty or so fighters the vast majority of those killed come from just three families; the Mashlab family, the Al-Sayed family and the Abdul Razak family. The head of the Mashlab family, Abdul-Moa'ti was a member of the Syrian Parliament who refused to defect or boycott the recent election. The Al-Sayed and Abdul Razak families had both recently converted from the Sunni sect of Islam to President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect much to the disgust of their Sunni neighbours including the Al-Hallak organised crime family/clan. So what appears to have happened is that members of the Al-Hallak clan went into al-Houla to ethnically cleanse the village by killing all the families loyal to the Syrian government.
Despite the facts not exactly fitting the narrative the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) still used the al-Houla massacre as a pretext to withdraw from the Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan's six point peace plan on Friday June 1st (1/6/12). Since then off the record United Nations (UN) sources have reported that the SIA have been forcibly conscripting child soldier (under 16 years) and using them to launch a large offensive against Syrian forces in Homs, al-Heffa, Deir al-Zour and Rastan. As of today (14/6/12) Syrian forces seem to have been able to break this offensive without any great trouble. However with both sides fighting it out with heavy weapons there has been a very high death toll with civilians being killed on both sides. The worst single incident occurred on Saturday June 9th (9/6/12) when the SIA killed 88 Syrian soldiers.
Meanwhile Burhan Ghalioun - head of the political wing of the SIA,the Syrian National Council (SNC) - was deposed on Sunday (10/6/12) following months of in-fighting. He has been replaced by Abdulbaset Sayda. What appears to have happened is that a deep sectarian division had emerged within the SNC between the Kurdish minority and the Sunni Muslim majority with the Kurds threatening to leave the group. So the Sunnis who make up the Saudi and Qatari Royal Families who are the SNC's main backers forced the Sunni Ghalioun to step aside in favour of the Kurdish Sayda in order to prevent the Kurds leaving and revealing the SNC for what it is - a Saudi front organisation. These deep divisions within the SNC also demonstrate the fact that if the Syrian government were to fall there is no organisation ready to step into its place creating a Iraq-style power vacuum.
The situation in Syria is now so bad that everyone except the US thinks that Syria is in the midst of a full blown civil war and Israel has been forced to break it's long held silence on the matter. On Sunday (10/6/12) the newly appointed vice-Prime Minister from the Kadima Party Shaul Mofaz explicitially called on the international community to take military action to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad accusing it of crimes against humanity including genocide. This call perfectly echoes the propaganda line - that the violence is all an Israeli plot - the al-Assad government has being using to keep the country united. So by making such an explicit call the Israelis actually seem to be trying to help to shore up the Syrian government meaning that all Israel wants from the situation is stability regardless of who is in charge of their neighbour. The timing of the Israeli call the day before the Israeli President Shimon Peres and the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton jointly address the Brookings Institute seems to have been an effort by Kadima to be seen to put pressure on the US to change it's current position because their regional strategy doesn't seem to have been updated to include recent developments like the Arab Spring. For her part Clinton seemed to be attempting to deflect the Israeli criticism by talking about attack helicopters which leads onto a discussion about Wikileaks, Julian Assange and the trial of Bradley Manning but that's probably a much longer story for another day.
As for Syria there seems to be a widespread agreement that something must be done soon to bring the current situation to an end. However I do not see how using western military power to set up safe havens/training camps for the guys even Al-Qaeda and Hamas think are crazy will achieve that objective.
It now looks as though apart from the twenty or so fighters the vast majority of those killed come from just three families; the Mashlab family, the Al-Sayed family and the Abdul Razak family. The head of the Mashlab family, Abdul-Moa'ti was a member of the Syrian Parliament who refused to defect or boycott the recent election. The Al-Sayed and Abdul Razak families had both recently converted from the Sunni sect of Islam to President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect much to the disgust of their Sunni neighbours including the Al-Hallak organised crime family/clan. So what appears to have happened is that members of the Al-Hallak clan went into al-Houla to ethnically cleanse the village by killing all the families loyal to the Syrian government.
Despite the facts not exactly fitting the narrative the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) still used the al-Houla massacre as a pretext to withdraw from the Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan's six point peace plan on Friday June 1st (1/6/12). Since then off the record United Nations (UN) sources have reported that the SIA have been forcibly conscripting child soldier (under 16 years) and using them to launch a large offensive against Syrian forces in Homs, al-Heffa, Deir al-Zour and Rastan. As of today (14/6/12) Syrian forces seem to have been able to break this offensive without any great trouble. However with both sides fighting it out with heavy weapons there has been a very high death toll with civilians being killed on both sides. The worst single incident occurred on Saturday June 9th (9/6/12) when the SIA killed 88 Syrian soldiers.
Meanwhile Burhan Ghalioun - head of the political wing of the SIA,the Syrian National Council (SNC) - was deposed on Sunday (10/6/12) following months of in-fighting. He has been replaced by Abdulbaset Sayda. What appears to have happened is that a deep sectarian division had emerged within the SNC between the Kurdish minority and the Sunni Muslim majority with the Kurds threatening to leave the group. So the Sunnis who make up the Saudi and Qatari Royal Families who are the SNC's main backers forced the Sunni Ghalioun to step aside in favour of the Kurdish Sayda in order to prevent the Kurds leaving and revealing the SNC for what it is - a Saudi front organisation. These deep divisions within the SNC also demonstrate the fact that if the Syrian government were to fall there is no organisation ready to step into its place creating a Iraq-style power vacuum.
The situation in Syria is now so bad that everyone except the US thinks that Syria is in the midst of a full blown civil war and Israel has been forced to break it's long held silence on the matter. On Sunday (10/6/12) the newly appointed vice-Prime Minister from the Kadima Party Shaul Mofaz explicitially called on the international community to take military action to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad accusing it of crimes against humanity including genocide. This call perfectly echoes the propaganda line - that the violence is all an Israeli plot - the al-Assad government has being using to keep the country united. So by making such an explicit call the Israelis actually seem to be trying to help to shore up the Syrian government meaning that all Israel wants from the situation is stability regardless of who is in charge of their neighbour. The timing of the Israeli call the day before the Israeli President Shimon Peres and the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton jointly address the Brookings Institute seems to have been an effort by Kadima to be seen to put pressure on the US to change it's current position because their regional strategy doesn't seem to have been updated to include recent developments like the Arab Spring. For her part Clinton seemed to be attempting to deflect the Israeli criticism by talking about attack helicopters which leads onto a discussion about Wikileaks, Julian Assange and the trial of Bradley Manning but that's probably a much longer story for another day.
As for Syria there seems to be a widespread agreement that something must be done soon to bring the current situation to an end. However I do not see how using western military power to set up safe havens/training camps for the guys even Al-Qaeda and Hamas think are crazy will achieve that objective.
I'm Back From My Mother's
Like most people working in Britain's National Health Service (NHS) my mother has had enough and is looking forward to retirement. So we spent lots of time talking about what sort of house, car, dog she's going to buy after retirement along with some chit-chat about fox cubs and smartphones. I then bored her by insisting on watching the Spain V Republic of Ireland match which the Irish part of me does not want to discuss further. So although I might have had a beer nothing of any interest happened.
The incident though does give you a little fore-taste of what the Olympics will be like. For example last month (May) British Olympic hopeful Hollie Avil spared selectors the bother of not picking her for Team GB by telling everyone who would listen how the pressure to stay thin for the sport forced her to develop an eating disorder. Then a British Parliamentary Select Committee made some big press statements about how Britain was facing a crisis in body image with the number of people suffering eating disorders rising. Finally there was a big furore after someone said British heptathlete Jessica Ennis was too fat. My sister has suffered with various eating disorders for most of her life and by setting the Bristol Abuse Case in motion Britain was hoping to squeeze out all my knowledge in time for them to be world leaders on the subject by 2012.
Now it's 2012 they actually seem to be appealing for any help the world can give them on the matter. You'll excuse me if I don't feel sympathetic.
The incident though does give you a little fore-taste of what the Olympics will be like. For example last month (May) British Olympic hopeful Hollie Avil spared selectors the bother of not picking her for Team GB by telling everyone who would listen how the pressure to stay thin for the sport forced her to develop an eating disorder. Then a British Parliamentary Select Committee made some big press statements about how Britain was facing a crisis in body image with the number of people suffering eating disorders rising. Finally there was a big furore after someone said British heptathlete Jessica Ennis was too fat. My sister has suffered with various eating disorders for most of her life and by setting the Bristol Abuse Case in motion Britain was hoping to squeeze out all my knowledge in time for them to be world leaders on the subject by 2012.
Now it's 2012 they actually seem to be appealing for any help the world can give them on the matter. You'll excuse me if I don't feel sympathetic.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)