So Nearly a Fightback Against Rwanda.

Overnight the United States has closed it's Embassy and withdrawn all of it's diplomatic staff from Bangui the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR) ahead of an assault by the Seleka rebel coalition who are fighting the French backed government of Francios Bozize. However the French appear to have agreed that government will fall. As always with this type of conflict it is being driven by grubby little local warlords fighting for control of mineral resources such as diamonds, gold and uranium. However what seems to have triggered the latest round of fighting is the failure of a United Nations Peacebuilding Commission (UNPBC) program that should have seen the government pay rebel fighters to lay down their arms and demobilise. This is based almost entirely on how the Nigerian government brought an end to the conflict with the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). So by making this a toxic issue by sending Chris Brown to Nigeria the US have been blocking peace efforts in order to allow the Seleka rebels to continue their advance.

Although a coalition the majority of the Seleka rebels is made up of the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UDFR) who were allied with  Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) during the 2001 coup attempt and subsequent bush war. While I can't begin to unpick the various conflicts that have ravaged the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the MLC's stronghold is in the north west of the country and it's fighters have remained loyal to the government of Jospeh Kabila against the advance from the east of the M23 rebels who are backed Rwanda and by extension the UK. So by aiding the overthrow of the CAR government the US appears to be attempting to secure it's mineral smuggling routes out of the north of the DRC in order to counterbalance the mineral smuggling routes that the UK has been busy securing out of the east of the DRC through Rwanda. You've got to admit it's a bit of a smart move by the US but personally I would have preferred to hold on to Libya, Mali and Egypt instead.

Of course the prospect of another proxy-war opening up in the DRC doesn't bode well for the DRC but with an estimated 4 rapes a minute taking place it's hard to imagine how the situation can get worse.

12:55 on 28/12/12.

Edited at around 15:30 on 28/12/12 to add: I really should wake up properly and check the news before going off on one like that.

Anyway today is the day that Britain's National Archive releases government documents that had been kept as official state secrets under something known as the 30 year rule. This happens every year and is normally quite dull. However 30 years ago it was 1982 and Britain was fighting the Falklands war so obviously a lot of the documents have been about that. A lot of the focus has been on how Britain's intelligence services apparently had very little warning that the Argentineans were going to invade and how the conflict caused extreme diplomatic tensions between the UK and it's NATO ally France over the supply of French Exocet missiles to Argentina.

So it appears that Britain had such advance knowledge of what is going on in CAR that they've been able to prepare a special something to convince every one they're jolly angry about it. They're not though because one consequence of the Seleka victory could be a strengthened UDFR restarting their conflict with Kabila's government creating a distraction allowing the M23 to take control of greater swathes of the mineral rich east.