Japans Earthquake.

It's not that the COP18/CMP8 Summit is going badly it's just they haven't yet fully agreed that there will be a COP19/CMP9 Summit next year. Everybody is around 98% certain that it will take place in Poland in November 2013 but you only need to look at Chris Brown's tour schedule to see how deeply unpopular that idea is within certain circles. This opposition to Poland is largely driven by the fact that over the years Poland has carved out a reputation for itself as being a beacon of sanity amid the chaos of climate change negotiations. Having continued to meet throughout the night the COP18/CMP8 is now in an extra day in what can only now be viewed as an exercise in futility designed to inflict maximum stress on all participants.

The main problem with the COP18/CMP8 has been the decision to hold it in a nation whose very existence is wholly dependent on the world continuing to buy and burn fossil fuels in particular natural gas. Another significant problem though has been some major players such as the US, the UK, France and Egypt trying to make the Summit about the changes to the middle east in the wake of the so-called 'Arab Spring' in particular Syria. This has played perfectly into the agenda of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) hosts who have keen to cement the progress of their Islamist agenda in the region by exploring more elaborate ways to control their restive populations in order to stop these revolutions in their tracks. This has been done things like a protest march organised by the hosts through the streets of Doha last Saturday (1/12/12), Twitter accounts claiming to represent the Arab youth (al Shabaab) stirring up anger and Arab protesters being arrested and deported after unfurling a banner within the summit building.

Yesterday (7/12/12) Japan was struck by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake with result in a 1 metre tsunami wave. As Japan is a rich technologically advanced nation with a long experience in dealing with earthquakes this resulted in absolutely nothing happening apart from a few buildings shaking. Although it is quite difficult to argue that an earthquake is a climate hazard this did serve to highlight the inequality that exists between rich nations and poor nations when it comes to vulnerability to environmental hazards. This is particularly true when you compare Japan's earthquake with Typhoon Bopha which struck the Philippines early in the week killing at least 459 people. After all it doesn't really matter if the four feet of sea water being dumped on land is the result of a tsunami or a torm surge. An earthquake in Japan obviously also brings make memories of the truly catastrophic earthquake that struck Japan in March 2011 just as the world was debating whether or not to intervene in Libya so it could well serve as a hint to the US about the last time it chose to go down the wrong path.

While they are undoubtedly on a mission to make themselves the least popular nation on earth the US can't bear all of the responsibility for the failure of the COP18/CMP8. Another major sticking point has been the issue of compensation for loss and damage. This is a long running theme within climate negotiations which essentially argues that because a lot of the greenhouse gases that are currently causing climate hazards across the world were put there by a small group of developed nations up to a hundred years ago those developed nations should pay compensation to developing nations. Although they have a point at the COP18/CMP8 the developing nations have been too focused on getting the US alone to hand over compensation. The problem with this is that while they don't like to admit it the US is not the be all and end all of the developed world so any compensation package will have to include western European nations along with nations like Canada and the UK who are really opposed to it. Due to a series of very bad moves over the last few years the US is actually in a very weak position diplomatically so by putting all the pressure on them the developing nations are actually further reducing the US' ability to negotiate with their peers in the developed world.

The weakness of the US's position was revealed last night with the Hail Mary play that was opening of the autopsy report for the rapper Notorious B.I.G who was shot an killed in 1997 in Los Angles. The purpose of this was to create a defensive cloud of confusion by invoking the Arafat exhumation that the US had hoped would play a larger role at the summit. It also raises the question of why Britain has declined to carry out an autopsy on my grandmother that would conclusively prove their dementia diagnosis which obviously would have a bearing on whether I'm entitled to compensation. There was also hope that it would fuel speculation that there was some sort of internal East Coast/West Coast feud within the US that's keeping Chris Brown out of jail and possibly lead some people to believe that LA County prosecutors are now starting to dream of the old days when someone would have just shot him.

15:00 on 8/12/12.