COP18/CMP8: That Was F'king Grim.

After an extension of 24 hours the 18th Conference of Parties (COP18) and the 8th Conference of the Members of the Protocol (CMP8) has concluded in Doha, Qatar. I suppose we should start by looking at the positives. 37 developed  nations led by the 27 nation European Union (EU) have signed up to what is being called the "Doha Climate Gateway" which will see them voluntarily extend their legally binding commitments to cut greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions between the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol at the end of 2012 and the expected introduction of it's replacement in 2020. Although the hosts are making a big song and dance about this agreement it was actually reached prior to the start of the summit. Excluding big ghg emitters such as the USA, Russia and Canada this deal only represents 15% of global ghg emissions so will have little to no impact in keeping rises in global temperature below the 2C target identified to prevent runaway climate change. The deal though will keep the carbon credit market alive in the signatory nations and it is this market that provides much of the funding for programs such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that funds green development within developing nations allowing them to mitigate their carbon emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The Doha gateway also intends to raise USD100bn to aid with mitigation and adaptation but so far only USD6bn has actually been committed. The Doha summit has also been able to confirm that the COP19/CMP9 Summit will take place in Warsaw, Poland in 2013 although exact details still need to be confirmed.

The biggest challenges presented by the COP/CMP process is that the Kyoto Protocol will expire on December 31st 2012 (31/12/12). This will also bring an end to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) which assesses signatory nations adherence to the protocol and looks for improvements and the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long term Co-operative Action (AWG-LCA) which worked to bring about a replacement to Kyoto including efforts to have nations that were considered developing (annex ii) under Kyoto to be re-classified as developed (annex i) under it's replacement. Along with the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) the AWG-KP and the AWG-LCA have been the backbone of climate negotiations since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 so their closure does rather leave future negotiations without a compass. They are though to be replaced by the Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) which was agreed at the COP17/CMP7 in Durban, South Africa. This change in approach is actually something I've lobbied for over a number of years because the Kyoto Protocol and it's focus on legally binding emissions targets has tended to make governments too focused on hitting those targets at the expense of a more holistic and rounded approach to sustainable development. Britain's approach of simply carrying on much as before but switching from coal fired power stations to gas fired power stations being a case in point. However it is difficult to gauge how successful or unsuccessful the ADP is going to be because at this point all we really have is the name. Having held it's first meeting in May 2012 the ADP is still at the stage of accepting submissions on what it's workplan should be and has yet to decide what it's role should be let alone agree a timetable (which always over-runs) for it's work to be completed. With the ADP being the body tasked with having a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol ready for signing by the end of 2015 they had better hurry up.

So in summary while the COP18/CMP8 was not quite the funeral for transnational efforts to tackle global warming/climate change that the hosts and others had hoped for it does rather leave the whole process up in the air with very few visible signs of support.

17:35 on 9/12/12.