Where Have All The Strongmen Gone.

After a series of sensible and not so sensible delays yesterday the COP15 talks are back in session although they still seem to be resolutely deadlocked. Depressingly the current impasse is being caused by the developing nations especially the African ones.

A major problem is that while the developed nations of the so called "Global North" want to see temperature rises capped at 2C above pre-industrialised levels the developing nations of the so called "Global South" want to see levels capped at 1.5C. This is something of an impossible demand because the scientific consensus is that based on level of carbon already in the atmosphere it won't be possible to cap temperature rises at 1.5C without technology to remove existing carbon from the atmosphere. The problem is that this carbon scrubbing technology only exists in theory and even the best design prototypes are still a very long way away from being commercially available on an international scale. Therefore it would be a much better idea to agree to a non-binding 2C cap that can be reviewed as new technology becomes available.

The main sticking point though is still the issue of money. This argument is being made worse because many developing nations, mostly the African ones, are still clinging on to the notion of something called Climate Justice. This well established negotiating position follows that because most of the climate damage was done by the countries of the global north during the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century they should pay reparations to the countries of the global south who bear the brunt of climate change. Although it is probably morally right Climate Justice is merely the intellectual reserve of privileged, white northerners who know nothing of how the world works outside the walls of a university and often care about nothing more then their own egos.

Climate Justice is a particularly suicidal negotiating position for developing nations to stick to because if they do then the developed nations will simply walk away from Copenhagen without any deal being done. If that happens then all the fast start money that has already been pledged to help developing nations cope with climate change will simply disappear. Besides it is the developing nations that will be hit first and hit the hardest by climate change so while the developing world drowns the developed world will easily be able to ignore it by simply changing the channel on their TV's and sitting down to watch another series of X Factor. To be perfectly honest the lack of progress by developing nations at COP15 is especially disappointing because it highlights the vacuum of leadership in developing nations particularly the African ones. Although there are still some above average leaders the strong African leaders of the liberation struggles seem to have been watered down into a neutered bunch who are happy to sit idly by and wait for some neo-colonial master to come along and solve all their problems for them.

Apart from that there is still the problem that China, who have already voluntarily made significant emissions cuts, will not sign up to binding targets. Their regional economic competitors, led by Japan, are still stubbornly insisting that it must be binding targets or no targets at all. So the next couple of days should be simple then.