Since April 17th (17/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been progressively escalating his attacks against forces fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) both in Syria and Iraq.
The most violent day came on Tuesday (25/4/17).
Here the Turkish Air Force under Erdogan's instruction conducted airstrikes close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq. These strikes killed five members of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and five members of the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who are one of the militia's that make up the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
Erdogan coordinated his attacks against Sinjar/Shingal with no fewer than 20 airstrikes against the General Command centre of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in al-Malikiyah/Derik in north-east Syria. Apart from damaging the SDF's communications system these strikes killed 28 members of the SDF.
Erdogan's attacks have continued at a lower intensity on Wednesday (26/4/17) and Thursday (27/4/17) both in Iraq and Syria. There are no official reports of any attacks today (28/4/17). However there are strong rumours that the regular Turkish military attacked the SDF's Afrin Canton in north-west Syria this morning. Only for the SDF to repel the attack destroying five Turkish tanks in the process.
During this period of heightened aggression US President Donald Trump has been notably absent.
Trump seems to have dedicated much of the last two weeks to undoing his early successes in responding to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North). Now he seems focused on signing executive orders to appear on TV as much as possible ahead of his 100th day in office (29/4/17).
This last pursuit is particularly troubling. A President's 100th day in office is of no value whatsoever. It is simply a trash anniversary made up to give the trash media something to cover.
For example regarding the DPRK only failure can be delivered immediately. Success will take years if not decades.
The spectacle of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson chairing an open United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the DPRK as part of Trump's 100 Day Spectacular is particularly unedifying.
From a mountain of experience we known what normally happens is response to Erdogan's aggression in Syria is that the US relies on Russia to swoop in and save them.
For example on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan sent the Turkish airforce to strike US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with the SDF at the Syrian town of Manbij. The US response was to call up Russia and beg Russia to use the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism to get Erdogan to stop the strikes.
The Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is currently a particularly sensitive issue between Erdogan and Russia. Therefore the US has not had the option of relying on Russia to solve the problem.
Instead it has fallen on other nations to exert pressure on Erdogan on the US' behalf. Chief amongst them has been the UK.
At precisely 13:22 (14:22 local) yesterday (27/4/17) there was a security incident in Whitehall - the street at the heart of the UK's government sector. The security services had an Islamist terrorist - Khalid Mohamed Omar Ali - under surveillance. However rather than quietly raiding his home the police kept him under surveillance until they could arrest him in one of the most high profile places possible.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a much more serious security incident in the area when Khalid Masood killed 5 people in a run-over and stabbing terror attack. This was done to intimidate the UK into obeying Erdogan and supporting ISIL.
As such yesterday (27/4/17) incident was intended to mock Trump's apparent cowardice in suddenly deciding he's going to obey Erdogan and support ISIL. Although from a legal perspective Ali posed a threat he was being so closely monitored by the security services you would say that he did not in any way represent a credible threat.
Also yesterday (27/4/17) the UK announced that so-called "Marine A" - Alexander Blackman - would suddenly be freed from prison today (28/4/17).
When Erdogan sent regular Turkish troops to invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of Syria in August 2016 they were led by Turkey's very special forces who wear a maroon beret as part of their uniform. The maroon beret is also worn by the UK's Parachute Regiment. Although not SOF's the Parachute Regiment are an elite force. However not as elite as their arch rivals and natural enemy the UK Navy's Marine Commandos who wear the green beret.
Announcing that the maroon beret's natural enemy is out today is the UK sending the message that Erdogan's forces need to be out of Syria today. Not in the middle of May nor at the start of June. Today.
There was also another security incident in the UK yesterday (27/4/17). The Scottish National Party (SNP) were sent several packages containing a white crystalline substance. Similar to Cocaine or more accurately Crack Cocaine.
Aside from Trump's silence Erdogan's aggression has received a strange response from President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani. Despite five Peshmerga being killed Barzani has all but praised Erdogan claiming that the presence of anti-ISIL forces left Erdogan no option other than to attack the Kurdish Region.
Barzani's reasons for this position are well known. He's got this idea into his head that if he can export oil through Turkey he can declare Iraqi's Kurdish Region to be a nation state independent of Iraq. What will happen is that Erdogan will immediately block those oil revenues and then invade Iraq's Kurdish Region as part of his new Ottoman Empire.
In support of Barzani's Crack Pipe Plan some Iraqi Kurds have looked at the SNP and their plans for a Scottish Independence referendum as inspiration. The problem is that the SNP are considered a joke of British politics. They exist merely as the plaything of the Conservative Party.
The UK's 2015 General Election was a strange one. Almost immediately afterwards the new government laid out an economic plan that was pretty word-for-word the election manifesto of the Labour Party. However it was delivered by a Conservative government.
So the Labour Party had pulled of that amazing trick of winning the political argument but still managing to lose the election.
This was almost entirely the result of then Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron's performance in the televised election debates. He claimed that a vote for the Labour Party would lead to a coalition between the Labour Party and the SNP. This massively boosted support for the SNP while trashing support for the Labour Party and boosting support for the Conservative Party.
So what we ended up with was a Conservative government and the SNP and the Labour disunited as a completely ineffective opposition.
The SNP's latest call for an independence referendum is also entirely the result of similar Conservative Party trickery.
In the days leading up to the SNP calling for a referendum the Conservatives put around the rumour that current Prime Minister Theresa May would trigger Britain leaving the European Union (EU) - the "Brexit" - on March 13th (13/3/17). This tricked SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon into announcing the referendum on that day in an effort to steal Prime Minister May's thunder.
Brexit was actually triggered on March 30th (30/3/17). The Scottish Independence Referendum is a crucial part of Prime Minister May's negotiation strategy.
At the referendum the SNP will present Scottish Independence as a way for Scots to ensure a better relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This forces the EU to give the UK a much better Brexit deal or face being forced to deal with the SNP. No-one wants to deal with the SNP.
So if Barzani is planning on modelling himself on the SNP he's clearly very badly out of his depth. Or smoking Crack Cocaine.
The Whitehall incident also served as a little warning to the UK media who seem to be using the upcoming General Election to hide away from real news. This presents a problem.
I mean can you imagine how confused the nation would be if it woke up one day to discover the UK military had conducted strikes against Erdogan's forces in Syria and nobody knew why because the media had failed to report on the weeks of mounting tension?
Trump's gross dereliction of duty has also forced Israel to step up to the mark.
The conflict within Syria obviously puts Israel in an extremely difficult position. Groups like ISIL are viciously anti-Semitic. Therefore there is nothing they would like more than to be able to tell their supporters they are fighting a religious war against the evil Zionist state. This has forced Israel to take a position of strict neutrality throughout the six year conflict.
However as former US President Barack Obama never seemed to grasp Israel is located right next to Syria. The two nations are technically still at war with each other.
Therefore Israel has to very closely monitor events in Syria as if they were a matter of its survival. Lately Israel has taken to discussing events in Syria in terms of their concerns over Iranian influence in both Syria and Iraq.
The problem is that even at the domestic level no-one in Israeli politics ever says exactly what they mean. The long running example is the issue of public transport on the Sabbath.
Jewish law forbids people from working - including riding in vehicles - on the Sabbath. Therefore public transport does not run in Israel on the Sabbath. This is obviously extremely annoying for Israelis who aren't particularly religious or even Jewish.
However demanding that public transport runs on the Sabbath would apparently be too simple. So instead people wanting public transport to run protest against government ministers using official vehicles on the Sabbath. This issue raised its head during Trump's inauguration when his daughter and Jewish convert Ivanka Trump was caught riding in a limousine on the Sabbath.
Unfortunately under Obama the US State Department became packed with people such as Hillary Clinton who are just too dim to comprehend this level of political sophistication. So for example when Israel started talking about Iran's nuclear program the Obama administration thought they were actually talking about Iran's nuclear program.
Sadly many of those people who were appointed to the State Department under Obama are still there. So where Israel's been talking about Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq those people have advised Trump that Israel actually means Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq.
Yesterday (27/4/17) Israel conducted airstrikes against Damascus airport in Syria destroying an Iranian weapons shipment. Apart from destroying weapons that one day may be used against them this allowed Israel to point out to the US that they've got the Iran issue covered. So the US had best stop trying to hide its failures behind them.
Later yesterday (27/4/17) Israel used its Patriot missile system to destroy a drone on its border with Syria.
The US-made Patriot missile is part of what is known as a High to Medium Air Defence (HIMAD) system. This is the type of weapons system the US should deploy and has already deployed to the Republic of Korea (RoK/South) and Japan to defend against DPRK missiles.
The Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) system the US is currently deploying to the RoK is utterly useless for the task. Trump seems to need to be reminded of that.
Obviously the fact that Israel has been forced to express an opinion on the conflict in Syria now risks strengthening groups like ISIL.
So I put absolutely no stock in a President's first 100 days. Instead I'm a firm believer in legendary West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt who said that politicians who have visions need to see a psychiatrist.
However if Trump is desperate for a public 100 day report card it is simply a big fat F. For Failure.
17:00 on 28/4/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 11:05 on 29/4/17 (UK date) to add;
Yesterday (28/4/17) I said that there were rumours of the SDF repelling yet another assault by Erdogan's forces on Afrin Canton. Those rumours have now been confirmed. However the attack did not take place on Afrin Canton. Instead it occurred around 370km (220 miles) east of Afrin Canton in the area of the town of Darbasiya.
This is much more serious.
Darbasiya sits around 270km (160 miles) east of the famous town of Kobane and around 190km (115 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq. It is deep within the roughly 15,000kmsq (9,000milesq) de facto safe-haven that the SDF have established which has been designated; "Shangri-La."
The attack comes despite US Marines stationed within Shangri-La conducting highly visible show of force patrols along the Syria/Turkey border within the Darbasiya area specifically to deter Erdogan's aggression.
Those US Marines were not involved in repelling Friday's (28/4/17). However Erdogan has pledged to take revenge on the SDF for destroying five Turkish tanks, a radar vehicle and two fighting positions in the process of repelling the attack.
So this is one of those situations where the Commander-in-Chief of the US military really needs a deliberate plan of action.
Erdogan's first step in this retaliation appears to be banning the website Wikipedia within Turkey over some unspecified; "Offensive Content." There are several possible explanations for Erdogan's conduct here.
Firstly it may be possible that Wikipedia are simply refusing to take down content Erdogan deems offensive. After all facts do tend to be Erdogan's worst enemy.
Secondly prior to July 2015 the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) were perfectly capable of conducting air operations against ISIL without the use of US Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk in Turkey. In the summer of 2015 Obama did a deal with Erdogan to allow the US to use its own airbase.
One of the conditions Erdogan imposed on this agreement was that CJTFOIR were no longer able to strike ISIL around their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa. At the time ISIL controlled a much larger area around Raqqa.
Another of the conditions was that I was blocked from following CJTFOIR on Twitter. The intention being to make it harder for me to report on the war against ISIL - particularly things like Erdogan banning CJTFOIR from conducting strikes against ISIL.
Therefore Erdogan could be shutting down Wikipedia to signal a further demand that I be forbidden from covering the fight against ISIL. Particularly Erdogan's attacks on forces fighting ISIL.
Thirdly it is possible that Erdogan is signalling that he is prepared to be compliant with the SDF and CJTFOIR. On the condition that what will be an embarrassing climbdown for him is not widely reported. Of course the first step in that path would be Erdogan himself declining to make statements about how he is going to take revenge against the SDF.
Also last night the DPRK conducted another missile test. Actual rocket scientists are currently trying to determine exactly how successful or otherwise that test was. However it was clearly conducted in response to the US provocative decision to hold a high profile UNSC meeting on the DPRK as part of Trump's 100 Day Spectacular.
So it seems pretty clear that Trump is being hyper-aggressive in an area where he needs to be extremely gentle and completely absent in an area where he needs to be hyper-aggressive.
11:40 on 29/4/17 (UK date).
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