Friday 7 April 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 3, Day 3.

At last count there were in excess of 7,000 armed groups operating within Syria. We are very nearly at the point where we talk about specific, named individuals rather than the group they claim to represent.

However for simplicity's sake and to avoid treading on the toes of intelligence agencies it is better to talk in terms of the four main blocs these individuals and groups operate in;

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD): Formed by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) this is a ethnically diverse coalition of Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians and Turkmen. It is also religiously diverse with its membership including Sunni-Muslims, Shia-Muslims, Christians and Yezidis. It almost goes without saying that it is a moderate, secular and democratic group.

The Southern Front: This exclusively Sunni-Arab group is something of a wildcard. It was initially established with the objective of wiping out Syria's Shia-Muslim, Christian, Yezidi and Druze populations. However under the close supervision of Britain and Jordan it has begun to moderate its behaviour and leave behind its worst genocidal excesses.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): Probably the most famous of all the armed groups ISIL is made up almost exclusively of people who are not native to either Syria nor Iraq. They claim to be Sunni-Muslim in ideology. However their version of Sunni-Islam requires them to cleanse the Levant region of all those who do not share their ideology. This needs to be done in order to bring about the end of the World. As such ISIL's true ideology is one of Nihilism.

ISIL are closely allied with;

The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF): This exclusively Sunni-Arab coalition is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). As with ISIL their objective is to force all those living within the Levant region to adhere to a strict - and some would say perverse - form of Salafi Islam. However unlike ISIL they do not believe that this must be done in order to end the World.

Alongside Al Qaeda the main groups within the Army of Conquest are;

The Islamic Movement of Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). It almost goes without saying that that Islamic Movement of the Levant (Ahrar al-Sham) is almost identical in ideology to the Islamic State of the Levant (ISL).

The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI): This thankfully small group represents the main point of friction between ISIL and the Army of Conquest. The Army of Islam share ISIL's ideology but consider ISIL to be too moderate. They have on several occasions brutally murdered members of ISIL for not being extreme enough in their pursuit of genocide.

The United Turkmen Army (UTA): This is an irregular branch of the Turkish military. Specifically it is part of the Grey Wolves who are the paramilitary wing of Turkey's fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Due to internal Turkish political matters the MHP have been all but absorbed by the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) of Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Not only is Turkey an active member of the Army of Conquest it is also one of the main backers of ISIL. Erdogan's objective in doing this is simple. He wishes to use the Army of Conquest and ISIL to overthrow first the Syrian and then the Egyptian governments in order to establish a new Ottoman Empire with himself as Emperor.

The good news is that both ISIL and the Army of Conquest are in extremely bad shape both in Iraq and Syria. We are not yet talking about them being on the brink of total defeat but we are certainly starting to think in those terms.

In August 2016 Erdogan sent regular Turkish military forces to illegally invade and occupy a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of Turkey's border with Syria. With the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."

Erdogan's objective in this invasion was to preserve supply lines from Turkey to Army of Conquest positions in east Aleppo City and to ISIL positions in Raqqa. At the time those supply lines were coming under intense pressure from the SDF.

In December 2016 east Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest. Since then the Army of Conquest have been forced to surrender areas around the Syrian capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama.

In practical terms this now limits the Army of Conquest to a small area along Syria's border with Turkey centred around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland" in reference to the similarity between Erdogan's attempts to annex and conquer Syria and Nazi Germany's attempts to annex and conquer Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Amid this steady stream of defeat after defeat there has though been a beacon of hope shining out for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL. This is the United Nations sponsored Geneva Process on Syria.

The objective of the Geneva Process has never been to bring peace to Syria not to defeat groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest. Instead it is designed to empower those groups to overthrow the Syrian government presumably in order to establish the new Ottoman Empire or to bring about the end of the World.

The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process began on March 23rd (23/3/17). The Army of Conquests prime objective from this round was to get itself included in what is known as; "The Astana Ceasefire." Without inclusion within this ceasefire the Army of Conquest are almost assured of defeat.

Battling for their very survival the Army of Conquest set about this objective by unleashing the most intense campaign of violence they could muster. The thinking being this would intimidate the Syrians into including them in the Astana Ceasefire alongside groups such as the Southern Front who are not allied with either Al Qaeda or ISIL.

The main part of the Army of Conquest's campaign was a conventional military offensive against Hama City. Launched from the Hama countryside around the towns of Kernaz and Khan Sheikhoun the objective was to advance along around 45km (30 miles) to reach Hama City re-capturing the territory the Army of Conquest had recently lost.

Just prior to the start of the latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - I think March 21st (21/3/17) or March 23rd (23/3/17) - the Syrians wrote the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Since 2013 the OPCW have been conducting a UN mandated chemical weapons monitoring mission within Syria.

The contents of the Syrians letter to the OPCW has not been made public. However it is widely believed to have been a warning to the OPCW that the Army of Conquest were in the process of obtaining chemical weapons from Turkey and planned to use them as part of their Hama offensive.

It has become a matter of routine for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL to use the irritant Chlorine and the blister agent Sulphur Mustard as chemical weapons within the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Just off the top of my head I can think of around a dozen occasions in which the Army of Conquest - specifically the Army of Islam - have used Sulphur Mustard gas against the SDF in the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood of Aleppo City.

Unfortunately the objective of the OPCW's mission to Syria is not to investigate the use of chemical weapons with a view to punishing those responsible. Instead as with the Geneva Process the OPCW's mission is designed to empower groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government.

As a result the OPCW routinely ignores the use of chemical weapons by both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. For the last month or so the UK has actually been working at the UN Security Council to force the OPCW to investigate a possible use of Chlorine by ISIL during the current battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul.

So for the Syrians to instigate the sharing of battlefield intelligence with the OPCW they would have to be concerned about something much more serious then the day-to-day use of Chlorine or Sulphur Mustard. This would suggest a nerve agent such as Sarin or VX. However these are both Organophosphate compounds so you could be talking about something such as an industrial pesticide. VX was actually invented in India as an industrial pesticide.

There are no reports of the OPCW responding to the Syrians letter let alone of them acting on the information.

The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process ended last Friday (31/3/17). They ended without the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire and amid legitimate questions over whether the UN would renew the mandate for the Geneva Process.

The week of this latest round of the Geneva Process also saw the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive collapse into defeat. By March 31st (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they'd gained placing the Syrians within around 5km (3 miles) of Kernaz and 10km (6 miles) Khan Sheikhoun.

With the Army of Conquest very much being the wounded animal everyone's number one priority then became stopping them obtaining nerve agents from Turkey and failing that preventing them from using those nerve agents.

On Sunday (2/4/16) Russia conducted intense airstrikes against the villages of  al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly across the border from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This is a well known weapons smuggling route from Turkey into the Sudetenland.

In order to carry out these strikes Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace without permission. Given the November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) shooting down by Turkey of a Russian jet in the same area this was certainly a dramatic move.

On Monday (3/4/17) Russian continued intense airstrikes against known Army of Conquest weapons stores in and around Idlib City. These were obviously reported in the Turkish press as Syrian strikes against hospitals. On Tuesday (4/4/17) Russia expanded its targeting of known Army of Conquest weapons stores to the area close to where the Hama offensive is taking place.

While Russia was taking material action to destroy the nerve agent shipment the issue prompted a lot of coded discussion amongst other nations with a stake in the Syria conflict.

For example on March 30th (30/3/17) the US Navy discovered a problem with its fleet of T-45 Goshawk training aircraft. Apparently the oxygen supply system on the aircraft keeps getting contaminated with an organophosphate compound causing the pilots to suffer from hypoxia and neurological impairment. A very mild form of the effect that Sarin or VX has on the human body.

Following Russia's Reyhanli strikes this problem suddenly jumped to the US Navy's fleet of F-18 combat aircraft. Operated by many NATO nations the F-18 aircraft plays a key role in the Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) anti-ISIL coalition.

There are numerous other examples of this type of coded conversation. However I won't embarrass those who participated by listing them all here.

However British readers will have noticed that the UK chose Tuesday (4/4/17) to launch its clean air plan for its capital London. The main driving concern behind this policy is to protect schoolchildren from being exposed to toxic organic compounds in the air while they are being trained and equipped for their future role in life.

On the morning of April 4th (4/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Erdogan addressed a campaign rally for Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum. In it he declared that Turkey would be undertaking more military action against Syria and promised his supporters that there would soon be; "Good Surprises."

As I think we all know about an hour later the first reports of an apparent Sarin gas attack around the town of  Khan Sheikhoun began to emerge. Erdogan wasted no time in dispatching Turkish medical staff deep into Syria and declaring they had discovered conclusive evidence that the Syrians were responsible. We are now just waiting for Erdogan to dispatch regular Turkish troops deep into Syria to 'protect' the medical staff.

It is apparent that at least two chemical weapons agents were at work near Khan Sheikhoun. There is an irritant such as Chlorine which has produced all the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and the 'heroic' White Helmets rescuing people. There is also a nerve agent similar to Sarin which has produced the deaths.

What is striking about events near Khan Sheikhoun is the current deathtoll of around 80 is almost comically low for this type of attack.

On March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Iraq forces of Saddam Hussein used primarily a mixture of Sulphur Mustard gas and Sarin gas against the Kurdish city of Halabja. This killed 5,000 people and wounded 10,000 more.

The international response to the Halabja attack was to do exactly nothing. Rather proving that former US Barack Obama's claim that the World has not tolerated the use of chemical weapons since the First World War as a political deceit intended to target the Syrian government.

On the night of December 2nd (2/12/84) through December 3rd (3/12/84) there was a leak at the Union Carbide chemical factory in the Indian town of Bhopal. This killed close to 4,000 people and wounded 40,000 more.

In 2010 Union Carbide finally confirmed that the main gas that leaked was Methyl Isocynate. An industrial pesticide designed as a less dangerous alternative to compounds such as Sarin and VX.

On July 3rd 2016 (3/7/16) ISIL detonated a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) in the Karrada district of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. The explosion and ensuing fire killed 341 people and wounded more than 225.

Just on March 17th (17/3/17) another ISIL VBIED was detonated in the al-Jadida neighbourhood in the Iraqi city of Mosul. This occurred in an area that is still very much an active combat zone so this is not an exact deathtoll but we are talking around 200 dead.

On November 13th  2015 (13/11/15) ISIL conducted a sophisticated marauding attack on the French capital Paris. This killed 137 people and wounded 370.

On July 14th 2016 (14/7/16) ISIL used a truck to conduct a run-over attack in the French city of Nice. This killed 87 people and wounded 434.

So the frightening fact is that not only are events in Khan Sheikhoun out of all proportion of what you would expect from a nerve agent attack the deathtoll is very much at the low end of the type of violence we've come to accept as normal in these last six years of war.

At around 12:10 on 7/4/17 (UK date) I'm barely warmed up.

Edited at around 18:55 on 7/3/17 (UK date) to add; I've finally been allowed back on the server.

Erdogan's "Good Surprise" in Khan Sheikhoun was of course proceeded by twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian of Saint Petersburg on April 3rd (3/4/17). Those attacks were carried out by Saudi Arabia.

As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the result of the ultimatum issued by the former head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar to Russian President Vladimir Putin in August 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL or Saudi Arabia will use Sunni Muslims in Chechnya to conduct terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympic Games held in Sochi, Russia.

Following the Volgograd attacks the Russia security services were quickly able to shut down the Saudi backed cell responsible. So by way of compensation former US President Barack Obama created ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the borders of the former nation state of Ukraine.

Sweden have long been an extremely vocal supporter of the creation of Shamali Province. The source for many of the entirely false stories you hear of Russian soldiers being killed in Shamali Province is the Swedish intelligence services who distribute them through their Human Rights House front organisation.

It seems that today the Swedish city of Stockholm is reaping the rewards of that support for Shamali Province.

The perpetrator of the St Petersburg attacks has been identified as Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan. This is a reference to the January 1st (1/1/17) attack on the Reina attack in Istanbul, Turkey. Amongst other things Erdogan took great pleasure in speculating whether this attack had been carried out by a Krgyz in an apparent threat to permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) China.

However it was referenced in the St Petersburg attack to pose a very specific question; "Having prior knowledge of Erdogan's plans to conduct a Sarin attack in Khan Sheikhoun is Saudi Arabia continuing to stand with him as an ally or recoiling in horror at his actions?"

This was the extremely unsettling question that hung over head of British Prime Minister Theresa May as throughout her visit to Saudi Arabia on April 4th (4/4/17) and April 5th (5/4/17).

So when France - as a permanent member of the UNSC - decided to reprise the role of Global Village Idiot that it performed during the liberation of Aleppo City Britain had no option then to support it. In public at least.

The text of the draft resolution France introduced almost explicitly blames the Syrian government for the Khan Sheikhoun attack. It goes on to demand that Syrian effectively grounds its entire air force and ceases with any attempt to repel the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.

It makes no mention of changing the OPCW's mandate to allow it to investigate the possibility that a party other than the Syrian government uses chemical weapons. It doesn't even require that the OPCW travel to the area where this attack is alleged to have taken place.

So despite forcing the UK to support its draft France was only able to secure support from Senegal and Shamali Province. This gang of four is far short of what is require to force a vote at the UNSC let alone forcing a veto. After all everyone knows that as a former French colony Senegal is being paid for its support and no-one except Sweden think Shamali Province has any right to be there.

It almost goes without saying then that the open UNSC meeting on Wednesday (5/4/17) on the French submission ended without a vote.

On Thursday (6/4/17) evening though Russia called a second closed meeting to discuss France's submission. This was really an opportunity for Russia to give the UK a kicking. Let's just say that the UK's public statements on events at Khan Sheikhoun are offensively different from their private statements.

For example yesterday (6/4/17) afternoon the UK Ambassador to the UN Matthew Rycroft said publicly; "All evidence points to regime responsibility for Syria Gas Attack. A humiliation for the ally who has protected Assad: Russia."

Meanwhile in mothers' home town of Salisbury an interesting Coroners Inquest was opening. In 2015 British Airways pilot Richard Westgate died of what is known as; "Aerotoxic Syndrome." Specifically an organophosphate had entered the aircraft's oxygen system causing his death.

However in opening the Inquest the Coroner declared that there would be no investigation of how the organophosphate entered the oxygen supply. The implication being that such an investigation would produce embarrassing results.

Britain being forced to come clean certainly did not help France's case leaving them with just three votes in support of their draft effectively praising Erdogan's use of Sarin.

Unfortunately from the experience of the liberation of Aleppo City the French are utterly incapable of reading the mood in the room. So despite the lack of support they will keep hammering away demanding the UNSC endorse their praise of the use of Sarin.

This puts a lot of pressure on nations such as the UK and the US to explain why they're claiming to support the French position in public but refusing to vote in support of them.

So on the sidelines of last night's closed UNSC meeting the US, the UK, Russia and Syria agreed a plan. Syria would evacuate the Shayrat airbase to allow the US to fire some Cruise missiles at it. In return the US would make sure to largely miss the airbase. The intention being to make it look like something was being done in order to defuse the mounting pressure.

In the trade this is known as; "A Clinton Blow Job." Or more officially; "Operation: Inherent Reach."

In 1998 former US President Bill Clinton was being impeached over lying about his sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky. So he fired some Cruise missiles at Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan to distract the press and release the pressure on him. Then as now all the talk was about the threat of organophosphate nerve agents.

This course of behaviour puts me in an extremely difficult position. Obviously I can't avoid commenting on the US attacking a Syrian airbase. Integrity demands that my comments are at least vaguely accurate.

What really dooms the plan to failure though is that US journalists - particularly those working for CNN - are either thick as pig sh*t or active members of Al Qaeda. I'm sure you realise that those two groups are far from mutually exclusive

So within in minutes of the attacks being made public CNN were reporting that Russia had given its prior consent for the strikes. As the day progressed they've escalated into calls for more strikes.

They have been given plenty of ammunition by the US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Hayley's decision to hold an open UNSC session today in which she and the UK were forced to publicly repeat claims that not even they believe.

Now the US has entered into this spiral of calls for more strikes against Syria we known that Erdogan will be emboldened. We know that he will carry out more Sarin attacks.

We're currently all scrambling around to discover when and where and if we can stop it.

20:05 on 7/4/17 (UK date).

 

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