The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently in very bad shape.
In fact I really need to do an update detailing just how badly they're doing. Both in the Iraqi city of Mosul and at the Syrian town of Tabqa.
ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. They are in equally bad shape.
The only thing that will save the Army of Conquest now is inclusion in the Astana Ceasefire. That requires Russian consent.
So on Monday (3/4/17) twin bomb attacks struck the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of Saint Petersburg. As with the December 29th 2013 (29/12/13) and December 30th (30/12/13) bombings in Volgograd these were the work of Saudi Arabia.
They are the follow on from an ultimatum then head of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar issued to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2013. Either Russia ends its opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest or Saudi Arabia will conduct Islamist terror attacks against the 2014 Winter Olympics being held in the Russian city of Sochi.
Monday's (3/4/17) bombings targeted the city of St Petersburg in reflection of the role it played during Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. The centenary of which is currently taking place.
The intention was to add to the threat of more Islamist terror attacks against Russia the threat of Arab Spring style public protests triggering a sort of 2017 Russian Revolution. Unless Russia included the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire saving the group from defeat.
It almost goes without saying that Russia did not cower in fear. By Tuesday (4/4/17) morning - less then 12 hours after the attacks - they'd completely eliminated the Islamist terror cell responsible. Russia then proceeded to start mocking Saudi Arabia.
Later on Tuesday (4/4/17) a homeless man was injured by a small Improvised Explosive Device (IED) disguised as a torch in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Rostov sits right on Russia's border of what used to be the nation state of Ukraine.
In 2014 Saudi Arabia was unable to follow through on its threats to attack the Sochi Olympics. So by way of compensation then US President Barack Obama set about creating ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province within the geographic area where Ukraine used to exist. This has caused no end of problems for Russia.*
Even later on Tuesday (4/4/17) there was another explosion in St Petersburg. This explosion was caused by a construction accident which caused the wall of a apartment building to collapse. It teased those thinking that Saudi Arabia's threats would cause Russia's wall of opposition to ISIL and the Army of Conquest to collapse.
Amid these howls of Russian laughter a sudden reality dawned on the Saudis. Although they may like to threaten a 2017 Russian revolution they lack the capability to actually follow through on that threat.
I mean could you imagine sending someone as viciously homophobic as a Saudi intelligence officer to try an infiltrate a Russian gay club? His head would explode.
Sweden however has the capacity to, maybe not cause a full revolution, but certainly mount widespread anti-government protests in Russia.
Through their Human Rights House network Sweden has been building that capacity ever since the Cold War. Pretty much every time you hear about a gay-rights/human-rights/anti-corruption/soldiers mother's activist in Russia you're really hearing from Swedish intelligence.
So on Friday (7/4/17) Sweden suffered an Islamist terror attack. A sole attacker hijacked a truck and drove it through the main pedestrian shopping district of Stockholm.
The message quite simply being; Swedish intelligence will use its networks to follow through on the Saudis threats to Russia or it will suffer more Islamist terror attacks.
The type of truck used was a beer delivery truck. This initially caught my eye.
The amount of Sarin-like nerve agent that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used in the town of Khan Sheikhoun, Syria on Tuesday (4/4/17) is only about 500ml (1pt). This is the unit of measurement in which beer is usually sold. I suppose though at a stretch it could even be as small as a 330ml (11 floz) cola can.
This is common knowledge amongst the intelligence community. So while nations may accuse the Syrians of carrying out the attack when the people who are attacking the Syrians also attack them they don't hesitate to break out the gas masks.
The attack also occurred on Queen Street. A Saudi King conducting an attack on Queen Street in a European Monarchy has the potential to go a bit "Game of Thrones."
However the attack who was captured alive has been identified as someone who had previously being under surveillance for links to Islamist terror. Therefore it is unlikely he would have been prepared to put much planning into his attack in case the surveillance teams noticed and stopped him. Plus four days isn't really a lot of time to plan a terror attack.
So I think it's most likely that he simply hung around the main pedestrian shopping district - a "target rich environment" for terrorists - and then stole the first truck he could lay his hands on. Beer delivery trucks tend to stop frequently with the driver leaving the engine running.
The attack has also been identified as a citizen of Uzbekistan. Along with nations like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this is one of the group of nations known as; "The Stans." They are all overwhelmingly Muslim. Uzbekistan is 96% Muslim.
During the Cold War all to the Stans were part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). In 1979 the Soviets tried expanding the USSR south into Afghanistan. Apart from being geographically close Afghanistan is also culturally very close to the other Stans. Many Afghans will identify as Uzbek, Tajik or Turkic rather than Afghani.
Looking for revenge over its defeat in Vietnam four years earlier the US set about uniting all of Afghanistan's ethnic groups behind Islam to get them to fight the Soviets. In 2001 the US invaded Afghanistan so groups like Al Qaeda started uniting Afghanistan's different ethnic groups behind Islam to fight the Americans.
This near 40 years history of Islamist violence in the Stans is very much continuing. Al Qaeda are now not only fighting the US in Afghanistan they are also shipping large numbers of Muslims from the Stans to Syria to fight as part of the Army of Conquest and ISIL.
So the use of an Uzbek could be intended as a further threat to Russia while at the same time serving as a threat to the US. Just yesterday (8/4/17) a US Special Forces Operator (SOF) was killed fighting ISIL's branch in Afghanistan. Within Afghanistan ISIL have been particularly effective in recruiting Uzbeks.
By the same token though when you talk about a; "Syrian Rebel" statistically you're most likely talking about a Muslim from the Stans with Uzbekistan seeming to lead the way.
*In between watching people blow each other up I'm currently catching up on the third season of the US TV Show; "House of Cards."
This season dates back to the Sochi Olympics and the creation of Shamali Province. It even features the actual members of; "Pussy Riot" who have become sort of heroes for US-based ISIL supporters. However as the season progresses the US gay rights for gays activist who appears alongside Pussy Riot goes on to admit that his life is a lie and then kills himself.
The tension Pussy Riot causes between the US and Russia scuppers the fictional US President Frank Underwood's big legacy plan. He wants to deploy US troops to establish safe-zones within the Jordan Valley between Israel and Palestine. However the Russians veto the plan at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
So President Underwood appoints his wife as US Ambassador to the UN. She then moves to introduce a resolution to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) to overturn Russia's UNSC's veto.
US based ISIL supporters in particular have long pushed for the introduction of a UNGA resolution to overturn Russia's UNSC veto to allow for military action against Syria.
So not only are they basing their plan on a work of fiction.
They're basing it on one in which the main character is an amoral sociopath.
11:40 on 9/4/17 (UK date).
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