The Most Unpredictable Election Ever.

Yesterday (23/4/17) France held the first round of its Presidential Election. This was dubbed by much of the media the most unpredictable election ever.

However with Marine Le Pen going on to face Emmanuel Macron in the second round run-off it seems to have been entirely predictable. In fact I would almost go so far as to say that it had been rigged.

France's election this year has been an unusual one. Despite being mid-way through his two terms and therefore entitled to run the incumbent President Francois Hollande opted not to do so. That is because both he and his Socialist Party are simply too unpopular.

You don't need to look far to see why Hollande and the Socialists are so unpopular.

On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) 130 people were murdered in coordinated Islamist terror attacks across the French capital Paris. Since then the entire country has been under a State of Emergency with many civil liberties suspended and soldiers on the streets.

However this has done little to protect France from terror. On July 14th 2016 (14/7/16) 86 people were murdered in another Islamist terror attack in the city of Nice.

Much smaller Islamist terror attacks have occurred on an almost monthly basis across France. Just last Thursday (20/4/17) one police officer was killed and several other people injured in an ambush-style attack on the Champs Elysees just metres from Paris' famous Arch de Triumph.

Under Hollande and the Socialist France's economy has been equally moribund. Since Hollande's election in 2012 unemployment has remained stubbornly above 10%. This puts France in a worse economic position than traditionally poorer European nations such as Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania.

When you consider that amongst Muslim men of North-African origin the unemployment rate is closer to 25% it doesn't really take a genius to work out why France is currently having so much trouble with Islamist terror.

With Hollande being so unpopular you would think that it would be equally impossible for his protege Emmanuel Macron to stand for the Socialist Party and be elected President.

A member of the Socialist Party since 2006 Macron spent two years between 2013 and 2014 working as the equivalent of President Hollande's Chief-of-Staff. Macron left that role to work as France's economy minister during a period in which France's unemployment was at its highest.

With a pedigree like that you would think it would take something extra special for Macron to become elected. The Socialists duly obliged unleashing an incredibly elaborate effort to deceive voters and ensure that they clung to power.

The first step was for Macron to deny that he is the Socialist's candidate. Officially Macron represents the En Marche! (Forward!/On the Move) Party. However this was only created in April 2016 specifically as a vehicle for Macron to stand in the Presidential Election. It has contested no other election and holds no seats at either the regional, national or European level.

The second step was for the Socialists to put forward what is known as a stalking horse candidate. Initially this was Benoit Hamon. He is from the hard left of the Socialist Party so his only purpose was to make Macron appear mainstream and electable by comparison.

However it turns out that Hamon isn't extreme enough to make Macron seem electable. So the Socialists were forced to put forward a second, even more extreme stalking horse candidate in the form of Jean-Luc Melenchon.

As with Macron Melenchon was officially running for the La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) Party which was formed in 2016 specifically for the 2017 Presidential Election. However Melenchon has been a member of the Socialist Party since 1977 and served as both their minister for education between 2000 and 2002 and as a Senator between 2004 and 2010. His platform includes colonising Mars and he likes to appear at campaign events in the form of a hologram.

With three of the five main candidates effectively running on a platform to support Macron the Socialists third step was to eliminate the only credible candidate in the field - Francois Fillon of the centre-right Republican Party.

So almost immediately after Fillon had been nominated Hollande's finance ministry passed the entire Fillon family tax returns to Magistrates. This triggered a long-running investigation over the fact that Fillon had employed his wife as part of his political campaign - a standard practice in French politics. Although no charges have been filed the rumour and speculation has significantly damaged Fillon's reputation with voters just in time for the election.

The Socialists fourth step in getting Macron elected was to make Marine Le Pen of the Front Nationale (National Front) Party seem just electable enough to get into the second round run-off. They did this by simply copying the US Democrats playbook and making false accusations linking Le Pen to Russia just as the Democrats had attempted to link Donald Trump to Russia.

Attempting to link Le Pen to Trump serves several purposes for Macron's Socialists.

Firstly by comparing Le Pen to Trump they are by extension comparing themselves to former US President Obama. Amongst people who are removed from frontline politics Obama is inexplicably seen as both successful and popular. His Black Lives Matter campaign in particular strikes a cord in France where there are longstanding divisions between the police and public.

Secondly by comparing Le Pen to Trump Macron's Socialists are comparing her to the person who won the US Presidency. Success always attracts support helping to building momentum for the idea that Le Pen could actually win meaning that a vote for her would not be a wasted vote.

Thirdly Trump is actually a political moderate. Therefore comparing Le Pen to Trump makes Le Pen's extreme views seem moderate by association.

Take for example Trump's travel ban. Despite what his opponents say this is not a Muslim ban. It is a temporary ban on people for six nations visiting the US in response to a credible terrorist threat. However all the people calling it a Muslim Ban make Le Pen's plan to forcibly expel Muslim citizens from France more palatable.

Obviously Macron and the Socialists want Macron to win. Therefore their intention was only to give Le Pen enough support so she would end up in the run-off against Macron.

This is far from the first time that a Le Pen let alone a Front Nationale candidate has made it into a French Presidential run-off.

In 2002 Marine Le Pen's father and convicted Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen sneaked into the run-off vote. French voters then united behind the other candidate - Jacques Chirac of what is now the Republican Party - just to stop Le Pen becoming President. Chirac went on to win with some 85% of the vote.

Macron is clearly hoping that the same thing will happen this year.

I think anyone would support Le Pen even against Macron. However the fact Macron's been prepared to deceive voters this much during the election makes me fearful of what he will do in office.

17:05 on 24/4/17 (UK date).