Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 5, Day 2.

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent the regular Turkish military to illegally invade and occupy Syria.

Specifically a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Designated; "Garvaghy Road" this has the towns of Azaz/Kilis at its western edge and the Euphrates River on its eastern edge.

Erdogan's purpose for sending his troops to conduct this invasion was to preserve the supply lines running between Turkey and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) to the south-east and the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition to the south-west.

At the time ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in particular were coming under extreme pressure from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria the SDF control the entire area east of the Euphrates between the river and Syria's border with Iraq. This has been designated; "Shangri-La." The SDF also control an area west of Azaz/Kilis. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

On August 14th 2016 (14/8/16) the SDF liberated the town of Manbij from ISIL. This sits on the western bank of the Euphrates just inside Garvaghy Road. In launching his invasion Erdogan was worried that the SDF would push on from Manbij to link Shangri-La with Afrin Canton sealing Garvaghy Road completely cutting off ISIL's supply line with Turkey.

Erdogan's invasion of Syria is not only wholly illegal but completely contrary to the objective of defeating ISIL. Therefore US President at the time Barack Obama should never have permitted it. However Obama did permit it on the condition that Erdogan would completely withdraw his forces from Syria by September 7th 2016 (7/9/16).

September 7th 2016 (7/9/16) came and went with Erdogan reneging on the agreement and refusing to withdraw his forces from Syria. Now nearly 8 months later Erdogan's forces continue to occupy Syria. Their main purpose there has been to launch attacks against the SDF.

The most serious incident occurred on March 1st 2017 (1/3/17).

Here Erdogan used the Turkish air force to conduct airstrikes against SDF positions against Tel Rifat on the western boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton. That afternoon Erdogan expanded his airstrikes to include SDF positions at Manbij. Included in those SDF positions at Manbij were US Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

Erdogan's airstrikes against US/SDF forces at Manbij were only halted when Russia negotiated the deployment of Syria troops to form a buffer-zone between the Manbij and Turkish positions at al-Bab. Those Syrian forces are considered less of a threat to the US then Erdogan's forces.

Despite the establishment of a Syrian buffer-zone between Manbij and al-Bab Erdogan's attacks against the SDF have continued.

On April 11th (11/4/17) Erdogan's shelling wounded several civilians in villages with Afrin Canton. Just on Monday (17/4/17) Erdogan's forces again shelled civilians in the Afrin Canton. Today (20/4/17) there are reports that Erdogan has continued to escalate once again conducting airstrikes against the SDF on the boundary between Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road.

On March 29th (29/3/17) Erdogan declared that his operations within Syria were at an end. However this was just a ruse ahead of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Turkey on March 30th (30/3/17). The intention being to head off US calls for Erdogan to cease his operation by making it appear that he was going to do so of his own accord.

On April 4th (4/4/17) Erdogan declared that his operations within Syria were most certainly not at an end and his forces would not be withdrawing. Instead he declared that his forces would expand their operations beyond Garvaghy Road and told his supporters to expect; "Good Surprises."

Later that same day we found out what Erdogan meant by Good Surprises. A Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack occurred at the village of Khan Shiekhoun killing 86 people. Khan Shiekhoun is within an area just south of the Afrin Canton under Army of Conquest control that has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Erdogan followed up the Sarin attack by immediately flooding the Sudetenland with Turkish government agencies under the pre-text of providing humanitarian aid. As with Jarablus - just north of Manbij - this humanitarian aid has taken the form of establishing a semi-permanent Turkish government presence within Syrian territory.

Erdogan also followed up the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack by demanding that he be allowed to dispatch more regular military forces to Syria in order to overthrow the Syrian government and establish the area as part of a greater Turkey. He was successful in pressuring the US to conduct limited missile strikes against Syrian government positions on April 7th (7/4/17).

Since the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack everyone's number one priority has been to get Erdogan to withdraw his forces from Syria to remove his incentive to carry out any future attacks.

Obviously the best way to do this is to get Erdogan to announce the withdrawal of his forces himself. The alternative is that an ultimatum is issued for the withdrawal of those forces. If Erdogan fails to comply that ultimatum is backed up by military force.

In order to encourage Erdogan to make this announcement himself everyone has been trying to build him up into a (false) position of power. The intention being to allow him to convince his supporters that he is making the announcement as a sign of his strength rather than out of weakness.

Leading this effort to stroke Erdogan's extremely fragile ego has been Britain.

For example on April 10th (10/4/17) US Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson announced that he was cancelling his meeting with his Russian opposite number and would instead be getting the G7 to impose sanctions on Russia for carrying out the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack. Britain did this knowing full well that the G7 would not agree to this because there is no evidence linking Syria let alone Russia to the attack.

So when the G7 failed to agree with Britain and  instead called for evidence Britain threw its weight behind a French United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for an investigation. They did this knowing the resolution was unlikely to receive enough votes to pass and if it did Russia would veto it. When Russia did veto it Britain led the condemnation.

Meanwhile Russia has introduced its own resolution calling for an investigation. This is almost identical to the French resolution except for one crucial difference. It requires investigators to actually travel to Khan Sheikhoun to conduct independent investigations of their own rather than simply relying on information provided by Erdogan.

It almost goes without saying that Britain has joined France in promising the veto this Russian resolution. This has forced Russia to take the matter directly to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) who are planning to vote on it today (20/4/17).

Unlike France Britain of course doesn't believe a word of what it is saying. This further helps stroke Erdogan's ego. It shows that he is so powerful that he is able to force Britain to lie for him.

These attempts to make Erdogan appear powerful have been backed up by just the subtlest suggestions of military force.

On April 13th (13/4/17) the US used its GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB) bomb in combat for the first time. Dubbed the; "Mother Of All Bombs" the use of this bomb which explodes with the equivalent of 11 tonnes of TNT prompted Russia to start talking about its Aviation Thermobaric Bomb of Increased Power (ATBIP). Yielding a blast of 44 tonnes of TNT this far exceeds the power of the MOAB and has been dubbed; "The Father Of All Bombs (FOAB)."

Both the MOAB and the FOAB of course seem ridiculously small when compared with the B61-12 which is the US' smallest nuclear weapon. This explodes with the equivalent power of 3,000 tonnes of TNT.

Back in July 2016 Erdogan laid siege to United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk in Turkey. In response to Erdogan's aggressive behaviour once the siege had been lifted the US removed around 30 B61-12's from Turkey and relocated them to Romania because Erdogan could not be trusted

On April 14th (14/4/17) the US confirmed that it had test dropped the non-nuclear elements of a B61-12.It was dropped by the standard F-16 strike aircraft that has played such a large role in the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

So it seems that even if Erdogan refuses to withdraw his forces from Syria they can still be quickly removed.

The problem is that Britain does not have a reputation as a reliable partner. Particularly when it comes to fighting Islamist terror groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) the UK suffered an Islamist terror attack at the Parliament building in London. This led to concerns that Britain's sudden support for Erdogan was being driven simply by fear.

So on April 11th (11/4/17) the team bus of the German football team Borussia Dortmund was struck by a bomb as it travelled to a match.

Even before the Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack Erdogan supporters on social media had broken out their; "Assad Chemical Genocide" protest signs. Defined by black lettering against a yellow background the Assad Chemical Genocide signs are almost identical to the "Rabaa" protest signs Erdogan has been using to destabilise Egypt.

Borussia Dortmund's logo is black lettering against a yellow background. I think the April 11th (11/4/17) bombing makes it quite clear what Germany thinks of Erdogan's Chemical Genocide campaign.

Borussia Dortmund were scheduled to play the French side Monaco that evening. Monaco's logo is defined by white writing against a red background. Rather like the national flag of Turkey.

In a show of solidarity when the game was played on April 12th (12/4/17) Monaco fans took to displaying Borussia Dortmund's and Monaco's logos united as one. Rather like the Turkish flag under Erdogan and the Assad Chemical Genocide and Rabaa campaigns are united as one.

Although there was absolutely no suggestion he was involved German authorities used the Borussia Dortmund bombing as justification to arrest Abdul Beset al-O. This 26 year old Iraqi had commanded an ISIL death-squad before travelling to Germany via Turkey by pretending to be a refugee. This sends rather a strong message on what position Germany will take should Erdogan respond to his forces expulsion from Syria by sending more terrorists to attack Europe.

The Borussia Dortmund bombing has been followed up by lots of conflicting claims of responsibility from both the political left and right. This reflects the way that in Germany as with many other western nations the refugee issue has been hijacked. Both the left and right - but particularly the left - use the refugee issue as sort of a card to prove how caring they are. The only thing they don't care about is the refugees. If Erdogan responds with more attacks this will have to stop.

There have also been a lot of references to the US TV Show; "NCIS." For example on the Saturday (15/4/17) it was claimed the bomb's detonators had were Germany military issue. The episode of NCIS broadcast in the UK that evening centred around the theft of detonators and other weapons from a US military base.

The bombs themselves were essentially homemade Claymore mines. These formed the base of a big NCIS storyline. Particularly one scene where one character declares; "It must be the suspect - who else knows how to make homemade Claymore mines." Prompting all the other characters to slowly put their hands up.

German intelligence services have something of a strange relationship with the TV show NCIS. Back on July 22nd 2016 (22/7/16) 10 people were killed in a shooting attack at the site of the infamous 1972 Munich Olympic games. The Germans denied it was a terror attack instead claiming the attacker was a troubled teen influenced by violent video games.

A recent NCIS storyline revolved around an Islamist terror group based in Iraq and Syria - no-one specifically said ISIL - using online video games to inspire troubled teens to carry out violent attacks. However with the attacks not being claimed by the terror group investigators would treat them as isolated incidents protecting the terror group. The storyline was inspired by real-life concerns over ISIL's use of online radicalisation.

So perhaps a nation that can't admit when it's come under Islamist terror attacks shouldn't be lecturing the UK on how to respond to them.

At around 17:10 on 20/4/17 (UK date) I have plenty more to add.

Edited at around 18:30 on 20/4/17 (UK date) to add;

If the UEFA Champions League game between Borussia Dortmund and Monaco was marred by the spectre of Islamist terrorism then Thursday's (13/4/17) UEFA Europa League match between French side Lyon and Turkish side Besiktas was marred by good old fashioned hooliganism.

In his much younger days Erdogan was a youth player of Besiktas' arch Istanbul rival Galatasaray. Many of Besiktas' hardcore fans hate for this reason alone. Erdogan seems to live in constant fear that Turkish football fans will unite to overthrow him just as Egyptian football fans united to overthrow their dictator. Twice.

To guard against this Besiktas have been on the receiving end of some special treatment on late.

On December 11th 2016 (11/12/16) Besiktas' stadium was bombed following a match. Then on January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) the Reina nightclub in the Besiktas district was also attacked. Erdogan has claimed that both of these attacks were carried out by ISIL.

Obviously some Besiktas fans will be foolish enough to believe this version of events and support Erdogan as he claims to defend against terrorism. Others will be wise enough to see the threats for what they were and understand that they at least need to pretend that they're supporting Erdogan.

The majority of the Besiktas fans involved in last Thursday's (13/4/17) violence were not from Turkey let alone Istanbul at all. Instead they are Turks living in Germany. Ahead of the April 16th (16/4/17) referendum Erdogan has been aggressively courting German Turks, whipping them up into a frenzy by accusing Germany and all of the Europe Union (EU) of being Nazis amongst other colourful insults.

To make matters worse Lyon has a very high ethnically Armenian population. They were forced to take refuge there after what was then Ottoman Turkey conducted the Armenian Genocide of 1915. When the German Parliament finally recognised the Armenian Genocide in 2015 Erdogan responded furiously including by banning German Parliamentarians from visiting Turkey.

So Lyon v Besiktas was always going to be a category AA match with an extremely high risk of crowd trouble.

The match organisers responded to this threat by seating the Besiktas fans on the upper tier directly above the Lyon fans. So we all got a clear visual representation of what the French normally do when confronted with Turkish aggression.

If Erdogan was going to voluntarily announce the withdrawal of his forces from Syria that announcement would be made quietly on Saturday (15/4/17) before the referendum or loudly on Monday (17/4/17) during one of Erdogan's victory speeches. No such announcement has been made.

So on Tuesday (18/4/17) UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that Britain would be holding a General Election. Well actually that morning Prime Minister May's press office informed the media that she would be making a big announcement later that day. But they gave no further details of what that announcement would be.

This generated a morning of frenzied excitement with everyone desperately waiting for the big announcement.

Yesterday (19/4/17) Borussia Dortmund were knocked out of the Champions League.

I have never thought that this strategy of fluffing up Erdogan to make a voluntary announcement would work. From experience we know that Erdogan is a dictator who cannot be reasoned with. He is one of those people that if you give him an inch he will try and take a mile. Literally.

On Sunday (16/4/17) at least 49% of Turkish voters completely rejected Erdogan.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who monitored the referendum reported that the vote was neither free or fair. They have gone on to effectively accuse Erdogan of stuffing the ballots with at least 2.5 million fraudulent votes changing the result. Turkey's two main opposition parties have filed challenges to the referendum result and those challenges have already been dismissed.

As a result it is going to be extremely difficult for any western democracy to formally recognise the referendum. After all it was only former US President Obama who recognised the result of Turkey's November 2015 General Election which led to the referendum being called.

As such Erdogan is never going to feel powerful again. And no amount of fluffing is going to change that.

19:05 on 20/4/17 (UK date).