Tuesday 25 April 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 5.

Operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remain focused on two main areas: The city of Mosul in Iraq and the town of Tabqa in Syria.

Tabqa sits around 40km (25 miles) west of ISIL de facto capital Raqqa on the southern banks of the Euphrates River. Its main strategic importance is the adjoining Tabqa Dam which stretches across the Euphrates to form Lake Assad.

On the night of March 21st (21/3/17) into March 22nd (22/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) supported by US Marines began an operation to liberate both Tabqa and Tabqa Dam.

The first stage of this operation saw the SDF airlifted across the Euphrates to a landing site around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With the SDF already holding positions at Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar) around 10km (6 miles) west of Tabqa on the northern banks of the Euphrates this started an SDF advance on Tabqa from both the north and the south.

On the northern front the SDF reached the Tabqa Dam complex on March 24th (24/3/17). This allowed them to send engineers to inspect the dam and confirm that it was structurally sound and open a spillway to reduce the water pressure on the dam from Lake Assad.

To the south the SDF's objective was to secure the area between their landing site and Tabqa Air Field before moving to besiege Tabqa on three sides. This was achieved on March 30th (30/3/17).

On April 15th (15/4/17) the SDF launched the liberation of Tabqa itself. On the first day they were able to liberate the Alexandria neighbourhood on the south-eastern side of the town. Also on the first day the SDF were able to liberate the Ayd as-Saghir neighbourhood on the south-western side of the town. By April 19th (19/4/17) the SDF were able to advance up the south-western side of Tabqa to the town's hotel which sits just south of the Third Quarter neighbourhood.

Yesterday (25/4/17) the SDF liberated the Wahab neighbourhood. This sits at the southern most tip of Tabqa.  As with the Alexandria neighbourhood it seems that the SDF are waiting to open humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to escape before pressing north from Wahab into the main area of Tabqa.

The operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was begun on October 17th 2016 (17/10/17).

It is a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia's that operate as part of the ISF. As with the Tabqa operation it is being supported by CJTFOIR.

The first stage of the Mosul operation was completed on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) with the liberation of the eastern half of the city - the so-called; "Left Bank." Following a short and planned pause the operation to liberate the western half of the city - the "Right Bank" - began on February 19th (19/2/17).

As with the liberation of the eastern side of Mosul it has been the ISF who have taken the role of liberating the city itself. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF had reached the outskirts of the city. They advanced into the city in two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

On March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which is the most eastern neighbourhood in the New Mosul district. Having arrived at the Rampart Walls bounding the Old City district the Golden Division then shifted direction and began liberating the Hay al-Yamuk district.

As of April 20th (20/4/17) the Golden Division had succeeded in liberating the Hay al-Yamuk district along with the Orouba neighbourhood and Industrial area which sits directly north of Hay al-Yamuk. They along with the combined Rapid Reaction Force had also liberated the al-Thawra neighbourhood and the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood which sit directly east of the Industrial area.

On April 21st (21/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Nasr neighbourhood. This sits right on the western outskirts of Mosul to the west of Hay al-Yamuk district. Today (25/4/17) the Golden Division have liberated the al-Tanak neighbourhood. This sits between Hay al-Yamuk and al-Nasr neighbourhood.

On Saturday (22/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Seha neighbourhood. This sits north of the al-Thawra neighbourhood directly west of the Az-Zanjili district. Located directly north of the Old City district Az-Zanjili is one of only a handful of Mosul's districts which remain fully under ISIL's control.

On Mosul's southern axis by March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood which sits directly to the south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche are that sits between the Old City district and the Tigris River between the al-Jamhuriya Bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

From there the Federal Police set about liberating the Old City district. They did this in two axis advancing north from the al-Tob neighbourhood along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west from the Corniche along Nineveh Street. In both directions the Federal Police cleared the buildings adjoining the streets as they advanced.

The Federal Police's primary objective within the Old City is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the al-Shaziani/Nineveh Street junction. As one of the place's where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be an Islamic State this seems to be where ISIL have concentrated the majority of their fighters in Mosul.

As of April 20th (20/4/17) the al-Nuri Mosque was surrounded on three sides. On the al-Shaziani Street axis the Federal Police were in around 40 metres/yards from the building and around 120 metres/yards away on the Nineveh Street axis.

As I've said it was always planned that progress within the Old City district would be the slowest of the entire operation. Things there have now slowed down into more of a waiting game then a battle in the traditional sense. However that does not mean that the ISF troops there are all sitting around with their feet up and playing cards.

Instead they're spending there time crouched down in uncomfortable position constantly staring down the sights of a heavy and oily rifle. The hope is that they will be able to catch a glimpse of an ISIL sniper before that sniper spots them first and blows their head off meaning they can't go home to their loved ones.

I have quite a loud voice. So while I'm not discouraging other people from doing so I won't be adding to the pressure on the ISF troops involved in the operation by covering every little detail of the fight for the Old City. I am though monitoring it and I can assure you that progress is continuing to be made.

ISIL now seem to have accepted that all they can do is slow down the liberation of Mosul. It is beyond their capability to repel the ISF and hold the city. So instead they seem to have shifted their focus on launching symbolic attacks on the ISF outside of the city.

On April 5th (5/4/17) launched a so-called marauding style attack on the city of Tikrit which is around 260km (155 miles) south of Mosul along the M1 Motorway. Disguised as police officers around 10 ISIL fighters entered the city overnight. They proceeded to shoot at passers-by before eventually blowing themselves up. At least 31 people including 14 police officers were killed in the attack with a further 40 people being wounded.

On Sunday (23/4/17) ISIL conducted a similar attack against a Federal Police base just outside Hamam al-Alil. Located around 25km (15 miles) south of Mosul and around 55km (30 miles) north of Qarrayah Hamam al-Alil is very part of the battle space for the Mosul operation.

Here 10 ISIL fighters attempted to enter the base. Fortunately they were unsuccessful with four of the fighters being killed after detonating suicide vests while the six other attackers were chased away. There are no reports of Federal Police casualties.

Also on Sunday (23/4/17) ISIL launched an ambush attack on an ISF convoy close to the town of Rutba. This is deep within Iraq's south-western Anbar province close to the border with both Syria and Jordan. Around 365km (220 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad and around 530km (320 miles) south-west of Mosul.

On this occasion ISIL were more successful. They managed to kill 9 Iraqi soldiers and take three more captive.

The single biggest single threat to anti-ISIL forces at the moment however remains Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Within Syria the entire area north-east of the Euphrates River up the Syria's border with Iraq has long been under the control of the SDF. This vast area has been designated; "Shangri-La."

Immediately to the west of Shangri-La you have the area designated; "Garvaghy Road." Roughly 100km (60 miles) wide this stretches between the Euphrates and the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west.

Garvaghy Road is currently under the control of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military. On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan dispatched the regular Turkish military to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area.

Immediately to the west of Garvaghy Road you have another area under the SDF's control. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "Afrin Canton."

In sending regular forces to invade Garvaghy Road Erdogan was trying to prevent the SDF cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey by linking Shangri-La with Afrin Canton.

Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have an area which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Centred around the city of Idlib the Sudetenland is under the control of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. The Army of Conquest is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).  However another sizable faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA). They are allied with ISIL.

While ISIL have been suffering defeat after defeat in Iraq and Syria their allies the Army of Conquest have also been suffering a string of defeats. In December 2016 they lost control of the city of Aleppo. They have also lost control of large areas around the Syrian capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama.

So on April 4th (4/4/17) Erdogan assisted the Army of Conquest to carry out a Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. This sits just at the southern boundary of the Sudetenland and at the time of the Sarin attack was on the brink of being liberated from the Army of Conquest.

In staging this Sarin attack Erdogan had several objectives;

The first of these was to trigger calls for a ceasefire that would halt the Syrians advance leaving Khan Sheikhoun under Army of Conquest control.

Secondly Erdogan used the attack as an excuse to flood the Sudetenland with Turkish civilian personnel under the guise of providing humanitarian. As with his operations within Garvaghy Road flooding the Sudetenland with civilian workers is the first stage of changing the demographics of the area in order to annex into a greater Turkey or new Ottoman Empire.

Finally Erdogan wanted to use the attack as an excuse to launch military strikes against the Syrian government in the hope of overthrowing it and replacing it with a puppet government which would voluntarily make Syria part of a greater Turkey.

With the US launching limited military strikes against the Syrian government on April 7th (7/4/17) Erdogan was partially successful. Since then he has been growing in confidence gradually increasing his attacks against anti-ISIL forces.

On April 11th (11/4/17) Erdogan instructed regular Turkish military units to resume their shelling of civilian positions with Afrin Canton. This shelling of Afrin Canton was repeated on April 17th (17/4/17). On April 20th (20/4/17) Erdogan escalated further by instructing the Turkish Air Force to conduct airstrikes against Afrin Canton.

Last Friday (21/4/17) Erdogan expanded his operations to Iraq by conducting airstrikes against Qandil which is around 110km (65 miles) north-east of Mosul.

On Saturday (22/4/17) Erdogan continued his airstrikes against Qandil and expanded them with strikes against Dohuk. Located some 70km (40 miles) north of Mosul Dohuk is the site of numerous Internally Displaces Peoples (IDP) camps for civilians fleeing the fighting in Mosul. Strikes against Qandil and Dohuk continued on Sunday (23/4/17) and Monday (24/4/17).

Today (25/4/17) Erdogan has massively increased his strikes against anti-ISIL forces both in Syria and Iraq.

Overnight Erdogan instructed the Turkish airforce to conduct strikes against an Iraqi Peshmerga base located close to Sinjar/Shingal. This is located on the western boundary of the Mosul battle space. This strike killed 5 Peshmerga and wounded 9 others along with killing 5 members of the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Unit (YBS) element of the PMF.

Erdogan's airforce also conducted more than 20 overnight airstrikes against SDF positions in the town of al-Malikiyah/Derik which sits around 30km (18 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border at the very north-east of the Shangri-La area. 18 members of the SDF were killed in these strikes.

Throughout the day Turkish artillery has continuously shelled five villages in the Afrin Canton. There are growing reports of a significant build-up of regular Turkish forces on the border between Turkey and the Afrin Canton.

We are awaiting a response from CJTFOIR to Erdogan's decision to act as ISIL's Air Force.

17:05 on 25/4/17 (UK date).