So Do Turkey's Vote For Christmas?

In 1994 Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the Mayor of the Turkish city of Istanbul. He represented the Islamist Welfare Party (WP).

In 1998 Erdogan's political career hit a little snag. As Mayor he gave a speech calling for his supporters to be the soldiers of Islam, the Mosques their barracks, the Domes their helmets and the Minarets their bayonets.

For this call to religious war the Welfare Party was disbanded, Erdogan was stripped of his Mayorship and was imprisoned for inciting religious hatred.

Upon his release from prison Erdogan formed the Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP). In 2001 the AKP were elected the largest party in the Turkish Parliament.

However Erdogan's political career hit another little snag. His conviction prevented him from taking up the office of Prime Minister. So the AKP made Abdullah Gul Prime Minister with one task and one task alone - quashing Erdogan's conviction to allow him to become Prime Minister.

In 2014 Erdogan's career hit another snag. He exceeded the term limits on Prime Ministers laid out in Turkey's constitution. So Erdogan simply took up the role of President.

As with many Parliamentary Republics this role is largely ceremonial with no executive power. However Erdogan set about using the role to change Turkey's constitution to make the office of President the executive power within the country.

In June 2015 Erdogan's career hit another snag. Voters in the General Election denied the AKP the majority it needed to change the constitution.

So Erdogan simply declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and called for a second General Election in November 2015.

Despite wrapping himself in the national flag Erdogan's career still hit a snag at the November election. Although voters gave the AKP a simple Parliamentary majority they denied them the super majority needed to change the constitution without a public referendum.

That referendum takes place on Sunday (16/4/17). Easter Sunday. In the middle of Passover.

Erdogan's constitution reforms will see the office of Prime Minister abolished and the office of President become the sole executive power within Turkey. At least until 2029 that President will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

If Erdogan doesn't abolish Presidential term limits during that time it is expected that his son-in-law Berat Albayrak will rule as President until 2044.

In calling for these constitutional reforms Erdogan has likened them to other democracies that use the Presidential system such as the United States and France. However there are huge differences between those countries and Erdogan's proposals;

In both France and the US national spending - the budget - is under the control of the legislative branch. Congress in the US and the Assemble Nationale in France. Under Erdogan's plan Turkey's national budget would be entirely under his control. Erdogan's wealth already far exceeds his legitimate income.

Both within France and the US the President's cabinet needs to be approved by the legislative branch. Some nearly three months after US President Trump took up office his full cabinet has still not been approved by Congress. Under Erdogan's plans Turkey's Parliament will not be able to approve or disapprove of any political appointment. That will be at the sole discretion of Erdogan alone.

One of the most important functions of the legislative branch both in the US and France is to keep a check on the President's political appointments. For this purpose they are able to set-up investigative committees and legally compel anyone to appear before them to testify under oath.

Erdogan's proposals forbid the Turkish Parliament from questioning both himself or his political appointees. Instead they may only submit written questions which do not legally require an answer.

In both the US and France it is the job of the legislative branch to appoint Judges to the Supreme Constitutional Court. Under Erdogan's proposal he will have sole responsibility for appointing Judges and dismissing them if he likes.

It is perhaps little surprise then that the Venice Commission expert panel that advises the Council of Europe on constitutional matters describe Erdogan's plans as;

"A dangerous step backwards that lacks the necessary checks and balances to safeguard against (Erdogan's) becoming an authoritarian regime."

Even the US Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Human Rights Watch (HRW) who have long supported Erdogan's actions in Iraq, Syria and Egypt describe Erdogan's proposal as;

"A huge threat to human rights, the rule of law and (Turkey's) democratic future."

Sadly Turks don't have to imagine what life will be like for them if Erdogan is able to change the constitution. Long before his proposals were approved by Parliament let alone a date for a referendum being set Erdogan imposed his new regime on Turkey.

On July 21st 2016 (21/7/17) Erdogan imposed a State of Emergency on Turkey which remains in place.

As with many States of Emergency Turkey's allows for detention without trial, warrantless search & seizure, a ban on public gatherings and the closure of semi-public buildings such as businesses.

It also allows for the complete censorship of all media within the country. The fact that this provision in particular is still in place has meant that ahead of the referendum almost all of Turkey's media has supported Erdogan's proposal. Under threat of closure.

Unusually Turkey's State of Emergency removes all power from the Prime Minister and places it in the hands of the President. This is exactly the situation Erdogan wants to make permanent through changing the constitution.

Under the State of Emergency President Erdogan has the power to write his own laws which are in place for a month without review by the legislative branch. At no point are these new laws subject to review by Turkey's Courts. Not even the Supreme Court.

This is known as rule by dictat. It is the mark of a dictatorship.

The suspension of Habeas Corpus has allowed Erdogan to imprison 40,000 people. These include Selahattin Demirtas the co-leader of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) who oppose Erdogan's constitutional reforms. He is currently facing 142 years in prison.

Aside from the mass jailings Erdogan has also added more then 100,000 people to a blacklist of undesirables. This strips them of their national identity number leaving them unable to work, travel or vote in this referendum.

The "crimes" that have seen people labelled as undesirable include holding savings accounts with high street banks which Erdogan now disapproves of.

On March 30th (30/3/17) 21 journalists which Erdogan has imprisoned appeared in Court. They were all acquitted. Erdogan's response was to have them all re-arrested before they could be freed from prison. The Judges who acquitted them have now been added to Erdogan's list of undesirables.

I think it is fair to assume that AKP supporters do not like me very much. Erdogan in particular seems to despise me personally.

So whatever I say about this referendum is likely to have the opposite effect. I will say this though;

Do you remember in June 2011 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey?

Do you remember in June 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean prosperity and stability for Turkey

Do you remember in November 2015 when Erdogan promised you that a vote for the AKP would mean  prosperity and stability for Turkey?

Well how's that going for you? 

21:20 on 15/4/17 (UK date). 

Edited at around 14:30 on 17/4/17 (UK date) to add;

Allegedly they do.

With 99% of 49,458,338 votes counted the Yes campaign are in the lead with 25,150,013 votes (50.8%) against the No campaign with 23,770,203 votes (48.1%). With this Erdogan has declared victory.

However Turkey's two main opposition parties the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democratic People's Party (HDP) are both challenging the result.

The main element of both their challenges is the decision taken while voting was taking place to allow ballots papers not bearing the official seal to be counted. This is obviously a very serious matter because without an official seal a ballot paper is just a piece of paper. It is very easy for people to remove official ballot papers and replace them with unofficial ballots papers changing the outcome of the vote.

Initially the CHP have challenged 37% of all votes cast - some 18,299,585 votes. However they estimate the number of ballots effected could be as high as 60% - 29,675,002 votes. Both of these figures are significantly larger then the difference of 1,379,810 between the Yes and No campaigns.

Added to that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who were monitoring the referendum vote have published their preliminary findings. They have described the vote as falling far below the expected international standards of a free and fair vote.

Apart from the issue of uncertified ballots being counted the OSCE were also critical of the coverage the vote was given under the State of Emergency. They found that an unlevel playing field had been created in which the Yes campaign was given unfair prominence and that it went unchallenged on a multitude of lies it told to voters.

So I've got a feeling that this issue is one that is going to run and run for a long time yet.

Erdogan however has declared the matter closed and is pushing ahead with his reforms. That should hardly be a surprise because he put many of his reforms in place back in July 2016.

14:50 on 17/4/17 (UK date).