Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 2, Day 6

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently in extremely bad shape both in Iraq and in Syria.

In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.

Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.

The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.

ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.

The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.

In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest. With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib.

There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.

The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.

Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.

The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.

So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest. For example the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.

In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.

The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.

March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.

On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev. Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.

The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17). Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.

Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.

The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.

However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.

The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.

Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.

Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.

When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City.

However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.

So today (3/4/17) we have seen yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. Although the situation is continuing to develop it appears that at least 10 civilians have been killed in explosions on a Russian underground rail (Metro) system.

What is interesting about these attacks is that they have not occurred in Russia's predominately Muslim Caucus' are to the south including the region of Chechnya. Nor have they occured in Moscow - the Russian capital. Instead they have taken place in Saint Petersburg which is roughly 800km (480 miles) north-west of Moscow and just 100km (60 miles) from Russia's border with Finland.

We are currently in the centenary year of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution. In 1917 Russia's capital was not Moscow but St Petersburg which at the time was called Petrograd. As a result amid the commemorations of the 1917 Revolution St Petersburg is being very much talked about at the moment.

The Russian broadcaster RT has been marking the centenary through it's "1917 Live" project. This seems them attempting to report on the events of the 1917 Revolution as if it were happening now in this modern, social media age. If you a very interested in politics and either work in or consume a lot of news media this has actually been quite amusing with plenty of opportunity for self-mockery.

For example in real life yesterday (2/4/17) Lenin Moreno was elected President of Ecuador. This prompted the 1917 Live account of Vladimir Lenin to Tweet out today; "I had a dream last night I'd become President of a beautiful South American country." On Saturday (1/4/17) the same account Tweeted out a Gif of a cartoon cat proclaiming Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin to be the; "ComMEOWnists."

The 1917 Russian Revolution of course happened against the backdrop of the 1914-1918 First World War. Following the forced abdication of Tsar Nicholas II who was on holiday in Crimea at the time two new Russian governments sprang up. This led to lots of frantic diplomacy between Russia's allies during the First World War over which government they would support and whether the US would join the war on the side of the allies.

If you're not nerdy enough about the 1917 Russian Revolution and the First World War to get the jokes looking at the 1917 Live Tweets could cause you to get all paranoid thinking it was a way to have coded conversations about the current conflict in Syria, Iraq and Shamali Province.

The one bomb that has been confirmed  at this stage exploded in a tunnel between Sennaya Ploschad station and Tekhnologichesky station. A second unexploded bomb has been discovered on a train at Vosstaniya station.

All of these stations are in what is known as St Petersburg's downtown district. During the 1917 Revolution all the action took place in the downtown district with mass protests repeatedly converging on the area until the Tsar was overthrown. That is why Palace Square some 500 metre/yards north of Sennaya station was known as; "Revolution Square" during the Communist era.

Mass protest seems to be once again in the air in Russia. On March 26th (26/3/17) anti-government protests organised by Alexei Navalny were held in dozens of cities across Russia from St Petersburg in the west to Vladivostok in far east. More protests were called for this weekend but largely failed to materialise.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was today meeting with his Belorussian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St Petersburg. Lukashenko has also had to face down mass protests against economic problems and a tax on the unemployed that began on February 19th (19/2/17) and are continuing.

So apart from the threat of more terror attacks today's events also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. While continuing to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" CNN viewers already seem keen to help.

Obviously today's attacks have primarily been an attack against Russia. However in their timing they also seem to be taking another swipe at the UK.

Today British Prime Minister Theresa May is visiting Syria's neighbour to the south - Jordan.

The UK and Jordan have both long supported another armed faction within Syria - the Southern Front. Initially the Southern Front were intended to work alongside ISIL and the Army of Conquest. However amid indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was the Southern Front could emerge as a possible rival.

Following her visit to Jordan Prime Minister May will travel to Saudi Arabia.

Within the Geneva Process the Army of Conquest is represented by the High Negotiations Committee (HNC). This was hand picked by Saudi Arabia. However the HNC do not participate in the Astana Process. Therefore it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would welcome the Geneva Process being dropped in favour of the Astana Process.

17:30 on 3/4/17 (UK date).