Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 2, Day 7.

Don't be at all surprised if this all seems remarkably familiar;

In Iraq ISIL now hold less than a quarter of the city of Mosul. This northern city has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq since the summer of 2014 and following the liberations of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah is the last major city the group control within Iraq.

Within Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are currently engaged in an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.

The SDF already control the vast 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) plus area to the north-east of Raqqa and the Euphrates River. They also control the main road running on the north side of the Euphrates linking Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour. This leaves ISIL extremely isolated within Raqqa.

ISIL's main ally within Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. This is led by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) and includes radical Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam.

The Army of Conquest are in almost as bad shape as ISIL.

In December 2016 the Army of Conquest were ousted from the city of Aleppo. The Syrians and the Russians are also in the process of liberating the areas between Aleppo City and the capital Damascus from the Army of Conquest.

With the Army of Conquest recently being forced to surrender their positions around the city of Hama this realistically limits them to a small area around the city of Idlib. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

The name relates to Nazi Germany's annexation an eventual invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. This saw the Nazis supply weapons to irregular armed groups within Czechoslovakia in order for them to carry out terror attacks against themselves.

Nazi Germany then used these attacks as an excuse to send regular troops into Czechoslovakia in order to protect civilians by establishing safe-havens which they termed; "Protectorates."

There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest. This is the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria.

The purpose of the UN's Geneva Process has never been to defeat groups like ISIL or the Army of Conquest. Nor has it been to bring peace to Syria. Instead its purpose is to empower groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syrian government and establish a Sunni Islamist terror state. This is something that is wholly illegal under international law and completely beyond the remit of the UN.

Since December 2016 the UN's Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Russian-led Astana Process on Syria. This has seen the creation of the Astana Ceasefire and the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. The purpose of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is to provide a structure to determine whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest.

The Army of Conquest very much need to be included in the Astana Ceasefire in order to survive.

So the most recent round of meetings in the Astana Process held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) were accompanied by a significant upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.

For example they launched the large suicide bombings on Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). The purpose of these attacks were to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians to include the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire.

In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Geneva Process has adopted the Astana Ceasefire as one of its objectives. However it has not adopted the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism.

The latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process - Geneva V - began on March 23rd (23/3/17) and ended last Friday (31/3/17). As with the meetings in the Astana Process the Geneva Process meetings were also accompanied by an upsurge in violence by the Army of Conquest.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a combined run-over and stabbing attack by a single attacker on the UK Parliament building in London. Of late there have been growing indications that the UK is no longer prepared to be as supportive of either ISIL or the Army of Conquest as it once was.

March 24th (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an Islamist terror attack in the Chechnya region of Russia. Since the liberation of Aleppo City the Chechen National Guard have been acting as a military police service providing security in the city. Within the week of the attack the Chechen National Guard were rotating their deployment with some troops returning home and others replacing them.

On March 23rd (23/3/17) Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) saw a massive fire engulf a large arms depot causing the town of Balakeya to be completely evacuated. Later that day former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was shot and killed in Kiev.

Under former US President Barack Obama the western reflex to either of these incidents would be to blame Russia and impose more economic sanctions.

The Army of Conquest's main attempt to exert pressure on the Syrians and the Russians ahead of the Geneva Process meetings though was to launch a conventional military assault on the city of Hama on March 22nd (22/3/17).

Hama City is around 120km (70 miles) south of Idlib City and around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus. The purpose was to regain the territory the Army of Conquest had been forced to surrender.

Due to the nature of the Geneva Process talks it is quite difficult to assess how they are progressing. However from the way the talks are being conducted you can tell that they are extremely far away from any sort of agreement.

The Geneva Process has not yet got to the point where the different parties are meeting face-to-face. Instead the parties are meeting amongst themselves to discuss the key areas known as baskets. The UN's Special Envoy Steffen de Mistura then relays messages between the parties. With each party's position effectively being held in a silo everybody is working very hard to make sure that no information leaks out.

However this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process most certainly did not result in the Army of Conquest being included in the Astana Ceasefire.

The meetings were really dominated by the fact that de Mistura's mandate from the UN to conduct the talks expired on the final day of the talks - March 31st (31/3/17). As a result he now needs to go back to the UN in order to have his mandate renewed before any more meetings in the Geneva Process can take place.

Steffen de Mistura's own press conference at the end of the talks were very much dominated by his need to seek further approval from the UN in order to proceed. He seemed unsure as to whether he would receive such approval seeming to shift all responsibility onto the Astana Process. The next round of meetings in the Astana Process are not scheduled to take place until mid-May.

Adding to their failure to be included in the Astana Ceasefire the most recent round of Geneva Process has also seen the failure of the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.

When this offensive was launched on March 22nd (22/3/17) neither the Syrians nor the Russians made any effort to repel it. This allowed the Army of Conquest to seize roughly 5kmsq (3 milesq) area of territory near the town of Kernaz - roughly 40km (25 miles) north-west of Hama City.  However on March 24th (24/3/17) the Syrians and the Russians did launch a counter-offensive.

After just two days of the counter-offensive on March 26th (26/3/17) the Army of Conquest started accusing the Syrians and the Russians of carrying out Chlorine gas attacks. They used these accusations to demand not only that they be included in the Astana Ceasefire but that the UN Security Council (UNSC) meet immediately and impose a separate ceasefire.

However the accusations of Chlorine gas attacks were not enough to move the UNSC. Since then it has been defeat after defeat for the Army of Conquest. As of last Friday (31/3/17) they had lost over 70% of the territory they had gained in those first two days. There is no indication that the Syrian and Russian counter-offensive will stop once the Army of Conquest's recent gains have been completely reversed.

So yesterday (3/4/17) we saw yet another Sunni-Islamist terror attack against Russia. This took the form of twin bomb attacks against the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of St Petersburg. Specifically they attacked the downtown district of St Petersburg which is currently in the spotlight due to the centenary of Russia's 1917 Communist Revolution.

Therefore apart from the threat of more terror attacks the St Petersburg attacks also seem intended to serve as a threat that a 2017 Russian Revolution will be arranged unless Russia drops its long standing opposition to both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

Today it has been confirmed that the deathtoll from the St Petersburg attacks has risen to 14 with a further 49 seriously injured in hospital. It has also been confirmed that the suicide attack was carried out by Akbarzahon Jalilov - a 22 year old naturalised Russian citizen from Kyrgyzstan.

This seems to reference the January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Sunni-Islamist terror attack against the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey.

In the wake of that attack Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to take great pleasure in speculating whether the attacker was from Kyrgyzstan. Amongst other things this was done to extend Erdogan's threats to China - a permanent member of the UNSC. It is reasonably common for Muslims from China's Xinjiang province to obtain Kyrgz passports in order to travel to fight for both ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

Within Syria today widespread reports have emerged of a chemical weapons attack in the Sudetenland area. Specifically on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. This is around 75km (45 miles) south of Idlib City and around 45km (30 miles) north of Hama City. Crucially it is just 16km (9.5 miles) north-east of Kernaz when the Army of Conquest March 22nd (22/3/17) Hama offensive is currently failing.

This attack appears to have used two chemical agents; The organophosphate nerve agent Sarin which has produced the corpses. Also the irritant Chlorine which has produced the emotive images of children hooked up to oxygen masks and members of the Army of Conquest's White Helmets division 'heroically' treating the victims.

Unlike the claimed March 26th (26/3/17) Chlorine attack near Kernaz this does seem to have caught the UNSC's attention. France is calling for an emergency session for today - the first such under the US' Presidency of the council - and the UN Commission has already opened an inquiry.

No doubt the first stage of this inquiry will be calls upon the Syrians and Russians to stop rolling back the Army of Conquest's Hama offensive.

On Sunday (2/4/17) Russian aircraft conducted heavy airstrikes within the Sudetenland area. Specifically they targeted what is reported to have been some sort of weapons dump close to villages of al-Kafeer and Babsqa. These sit directly on Syria's border with Turkey some 40km (25 miles) north of Idlib City and 1km (0.6 miles) from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. This would suggest that the Russians were targeting some sort of weapons shipment from Turkey into Syria.

The Astana Ceasefire Mechanism sees Russia, Turkey and Iran argue over whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest. Therefore Russia itself carrying out airstrikes against the Army of Conquest is extremely provocative. Particularly when the strikes were carried out so close to the Turkish border that the Russian aircraft had to cross into Turkish airspace in order to carry them out.

So when I heard about this at the time it certainly piqued my interest although I didn't really know why. A Sarin gas attack occurring two days later just 100km (60 miles) away would certainly explain the Russians sense of urgency. 

17:15 on 4/4/17 (UK date).