On April 11th (11/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the Turkish military to conduct artillery strikes against the internationally backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in what is known as the Afrin Canton. This sits right in the north-west of Syria bordered by the towns of Azaz/Kilis to east and Syria's border with Turkey to the west.
Since then Erdogan has progressively escalated his attacks against forces fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). On April 20th (20/4/17) Erdogan instructed the Turkish Air Force to conduct airstrikes against the SDF in Afrin Canton. On April 21st (21/4/17) Erdogan expanded those strikes to include the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
Erdogan's aggression seemed to peak on Tuesday (25/4/17).
Here Erdogan instructed the Turkish Airforce to strike positions in Iraq belonging to both the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who are one of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal.
The town of Sinjar/Shingal is located on the western boundary of the current operation to liberate Mosul. It was the closure of the Sinjar to Tal Afar road on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) that marked Mosul finally being surrounded.
Erdogan's airstrikes succeeded in killing 5 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and 5 members of the YBS. They also wounded 9 members of the Peshmerga.
The bulk of Erdogan's aggression on Tuesday (25/4/17) though was reserved for the SDF. Backed by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) the SDF are currently fighting alongside US Marines and US Army Rangers to liberate the Syrian town of Tabqa from ISIL.
Despite this on Tuesday (25/4/17) Erdogan conducted no fewer then 20 airstrikes against the SDF in the town of al-Malikiyah/Derik which sits around 30km (18 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border. Specifically Erdogan struck the SDF's command centre that included the SDF's communications command. 28 members of the SDF were killed in these strikes.
Erdogan then went on to conduct a two pronged attack on the SDF's Afrin Canton. This included artillery fire from regular Turkish units located inside Turkey and a ground assault by members of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are currently occupying the area west of Afrin Canton known as; "Garvaghy Road."
These attacks stem entirely from Erdogan's failure to understand that he has absolutely no future in either Syria or Iraq. We are currently all waiting for him to withdraw his forces from both Syria and Iraq so we can proceed with defeating ISIL and starting a political transition within Syria.
Erdogan's current wont of understanding is the result of a mistake by US President Donald Trump. On April 18th (18/4/17) Trump inexplicably broke ranks and congratulated Erdogan on Turkey's April 16th (16/4/17) referendum.
At that point even Russia had only noted that the referendum had taken place. Rather than recognising the outcome of the referendum let alone congratulating anyone on victory.
In part of the effort to fluff Erdogan's ego before his expected announcement of the withdrawal of his forces from Syria and Iraq on April 15th (15/4/17) Russia on April 14th (14/4/17) informed Erdogan that they would be upholding the Astana Ceasefire. Whether this means the same to Erdogan as it does to Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently a very sensitive issue.
As a result the US cannot currently rely on Russia to bail it out from its latest failure. As is did when Erdogan conducted airstrikes against US troops in the Syrian town of Manbij on March 1st (1/3/17).
Due to Trump's failure Erdogan now not only doesn't understand that he has no future in either Syria or Iraq he believes he is in a position to invade and occupy both.
During his April 18th (18/4/17) telephone call with Trump Erdogan proposed replacing the SDF with regular Turkish forces. This would colonise a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000milesq) area of Syria from Azaz/Kilis north of the Euphrates River to Syria's border with Iraq as part of a greater Turkey.
On April 11th (11/4/17) CJTFOIR mistakenly killed 18 members of the SDF during the Tabqa operation. Specifically they killed 18 members of the Raqqa Hawks Brigade/Liwa Suqur al-Raqqa who are an Arab element of the SDF coalition.
Under former US President Barack Obama CJTFOIR had been attempting to group the Arab elements of the SDF into a rival command structure known as the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). The intention being that the SAC would break away from the SDF and pledge allegiance to Erdogan's UTA allowing Erdogan to colonise the roughly 15,000kmsq (9,000milesq) area under SDF control known as; "Shangri-La."
The April 11th (11/4/17) airstrikes was simply one of those mistakes that happen during war. However Erdogan clearly viewed it as a sign that CJTFOIR was now moving to remove the SAC elements from the SDF. So he conducted Tuesday's (25/4/17) airstrikes as a way to signal that he would not tolerate this and demand CJTFOIR remove the Kurdish elements of the SDF.
The US' response to Erdogan's attacks have been nothing short of shambolic.
In response to the strikes at Derik the US has neither said nor done anything. This is despite the attack occurring 6km (3.5 miles) from US ground troops and damaging the communication network of the coalition those US troops are fighting as part of.
In response to the airstrikes in Sinjar the US merely called on everyone to respect Iraq's sovereignty. This could be interpreted as a call on Erdogan to respect Iraq's sovereignty. Alternatively it could be viewed as an attempt to justify Erdogan's actions by accusing the YBS and Iran of undermining Iraq's sovereignty. Erdogan repeatedly attempts to justify his support for ISIL by accusing particularly Iran of interfering in both Iran and Syria.
In short the US gave us the sort of statement gives spokesperson gives when they don't understand what they want to say.
The US' response however seemed robust and competent compared to the response of President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani. Even as his troops lay dying Barzani attempted to justify Erdogan's actions claiming that the YBS left Erdogan no option other then to attack the Kurdish Region.
I'm not being funny but this is type of behaviour you see from domestic violence victims. Rather then blaming the person who attacked them they always find an excuse for them such as it was their own fault for provoking them by burning the dinner or disturbing them while they were watching TV.
Sadly this is the type of behaviour we've come to expect from Barzani.
Erdogan of course launched his invasion of Syria's Garvaghy Road area in August 2016. However he originally attempted to launch this invasion back in December 2015. As part of the preparations Erdogan dispatched regular Turkish troops to the Bashiqa camp in Iraq between Mosul and the Kurdish Region.
Appreciating that Barzani was in no position to lead the calls for Erdogan to withdraw his troops from Iraq and global diplomatic effort was launched. This included the Arab League calling for Turkish troops to leave Iraq in December 2015. This led to the majority of those troops leaving.
The diplomatic effort continued until October 2016 - just before the start of the Mosul operation. The Iraqi Parliament had passed a resolution calling for Erdogan's troops to leave and the matter was being taken up by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
However Barzani then popped up to stab us all in the back by declaring that Turkish troops could stay in Bashiqa.
Then there is the Mosul operation itself. As victory creeps ever closer I'm starting to think about a comprehensive post covering all the things that were wrong with the Mosul operation. However if I were to sum it up it was simply launched at entirely the wrong time.
The starting gun for the Mosul operation was fired by those Turkish troops in the Bashiqa camp who started shelling Mosul on the night of October 15th (15/10/17). On October 16th (16/10/17) Barzani declared that the operation had begun. This gave the Iraqi government no option other than to start the operation on October 17th (17/10/17).
Six months later here we are. Still trying to turn the Mosul operation into a success.
Just yesterday (26/4/17) Barzani's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) were forced to deny they are expelling civilians displaced by fighting in Mosul from camps because the KRG has no plan to provide for them.
Barzani has of course also been an aggressive supporter of Erdogan's plans to expel the Kurdish elements from the SDF.
While Obama was building up the SAC Barzani was happily training the Roj Peshmerga force to attack the Kurdish elements of the SDF. As Erdogan launched his airstrikes on US troops in Manbij on March 1st (1/3/17) Barzani was sending the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS at Sinjar.
So I think Iraq's Kurds really need to ask themselves if Barzani can continue to represent them?
Not that Barzani would ever submit to something like an election.
Throughout the nearly three years the fight against ISIL has been going on Erdogan's violent outbursts are something we've come to expect. What normally happens is that he does something outrageous, everyone is outraged and Erdogan backs off for a couple of weeks at least.
What is alarming about this latest rampage is that Erdogan is showing no signs of stopping voluntarily.
The airstrikes against Iraq's Kurdish Region have continued and are continuing. As are the ground attacks against the SDF's Afrin Canton. Turkish aircraft continue to fly over Afrin Canton providing the constant threat of more airstrikes
Today (27/4/17) Erdogan also seems to have escalated with artillery strikes from Turkey against the town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. Located on Syria's border with Turkey this is in the middle of the Shangri-La area.
In his discussions both with Trump and Obama Erdogan has made it clear Tal Abyad is the area of Syria he wishes to invade next. In order to split the SDF controlled area in half opening up a new supply-line between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.
If Erdogan's aggression continues unchecked it raises serious questions over whether CJTFOIR can continue to fight against ISIL. Particularly whether the US can maintain a troop presence within Syria.
If the US and CJTFOIR is not prepared to do what needs to be done to ensure victory against ISIL then we are talking about a war without end with US troops constantly in danger both from ISIL and Erdogan.
16:45 on 27/4/17 (UK date).
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