Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 1.

Last night France suffered yet another terror attack.

At around 21:00 local time (19:00 GMT) a car drove up to a van belonging to the French police's Compagnies Republicaines de Securite (CRS) parked on the Champs Elysees roughly 500 metres/yards from the famous Arch de Triumphe monument in Paris.

The car's driver then got out and opened fire on the CRS van with a Kalashnikov-type rifle killing one officer and wounding two others along with a passer-by before being shot and killed by the police.

This attack has been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). However in that claim they mis-identified the gunman so at this time that is not considered credible.

Despite the level of coverage it has received globally events in Paris last night actually represents a very small, almost insignificant attack. This type of attack has become so common in places such as Egypt that I barely read the reports when they come in anymore.

Just on Tuesday (18/4/17) on police officer was shot and killed by a terrorist at a checkpoint close to Saint Catherine's Christian Cathedral near Mount Sinai. This too has been claimed by ISIL. The reason why I barely read the reports of events like this is that the nature of the attack and the motive behind them is almost always the same.

Both ISIL's Egyptian affiliate - the Supporters of the Holy House/Ansar Bait al-Maqdis/Sinai Province (ABM) - and the Rabaa campaign have their roots in the July 2013 revolution. Their objective is to overthrow Egypt's democratic government and replace it with an Islamist dictatorship similar to the one Mohamed Morsi created.

In order to achieve this both ABM and the Rabaa campaign have been conducted small scale ambushes on the police as they go about their daily duties. The intention being to make the police constantly fear for their lives.

As with all other people the police are likely to respond to this fear by reacting aggressively and overreacting. The hope being that this will create a public backlash against police violence that will bring down the government.

Over the course of 2017 France and in particular Paris has experienced a period of increased tension between the police and the public.

Back in February the police were accused of violently and sexually assaulting an arrestee in the Paris suburb of Saint Denis. This sparked several weeks of often quite violent rioting. In March police in Paris shot and killed a Chinese man who was attacking them with a knife. Again this sparked several days of rioting particularly amongst Paris' Chinese community.

Being the French riot squad the CRS who were attacked last night have been at the centre of those recent events. Therefore it is possible in carrying out the ambush-style attack the perpetrator was attempting to copy the tactics of the Rabaa campaign and ABM in Egypt in order to further increase tension between the French police and public.

However it has since emerged that the attacker - a French Muslim of North African origin - was convicted of the attempted murder of two police officers back in early 2000's. He was investigated as recently as February 2017 for making threats to kill police officers.

Therefore it is also possible that the two issues have simply converged. There is a long history of tension between French Muslims of North African origin and the French police that far precedes the rise of Al Qaeda let alone the rise of ISIL.

The attack comes just two days before the first round of the French Presidential election to be held on Sunday (23/4/17). The attack has actually led to today's (21/4/17) final day of campaigning to be suspended. Therefore it is also entirely possible that the attack was carried out in an effort to influence the outcome of that election.

It has long been part of Al Qaeda's philosophy that within society there is exists three spaces; The white space where Muslims exist and the black space where non-Muslims exist. There is also the third grey space where Muslims and non-Muslims coexist.

Al Qaeda's objective is to use terrorism to destroy the grey space meaning that Muslims and non-Muslims no longer coexist within society. The intention being to trigger a war between the white space and the black space which the Muslims - meaning Al Qaeda - will eventually win.

Of late ISIL seem to have been starting to adopt this strategy. However at the risk of going off on a tangent online Islamist recruits tend to know so little about either Islam or terrorism they can't understand the subtle ideological differences between Al Qaeda and ISIL.

Within the French election there is a candidate who also shares Al Qaeda's three space strategy. Marine Le Pen of the National Front/Front Nationale (FN).

Although it is a term that is often overused - particularly in western politics - Marine Le Pen is a Nazi. She believes in the utter supremacy of the white race and the Christian religion.

Therefore she too wants to destroy the space in which Muslims and non-Muslims coexist in order to trigger a war in which the non-Muslims - meaning Le Pen - will eventually win.

Throughout this campaign Le Pen has run on a platform of being voters only choice to guard against the threat of Islamist terrorism. Therefore it is entirely possible that Islamist terrorists have conducted an attack to prove Le Pen right boosting her chances of election. After all they both want almost exactly the same thing.

Even if it was not the intention this puts the French political establishment in a very difficult position.

Up until now they've not been conducting an election campaign. Instead they've been conducting one of the most elaborate political frauds ever seen to make sure that Le Pen is defeated in the second round run-off by Emanuel Macron.

Macron has been a member of France's Socialist Party since 2006. Between 2012 and 2014 he served as effectively the Chief-of-Staff to Socialist President Francois Hollande. In 2014 he was appointed as the Economy Minister in the government of Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

This French Presidential election is unusual. Despite being legally able to do so the incumbent Socialist President Francois Hollande is not seeking re-election. Because he is simply too unpopular.

Due to the current deep unpopularity of both Hollande and the Socialist Party there is no way that Macron could run as the Socialist's candidate and win. So officially he is running as an independent having resigned from the Socialist Party.

The Socialist Party's official candidate is the far-left extremist Benoit Hamon. As with Bernie Sanders running against Hillary Clinton in the US Democratic Party primaries Hamon's only job is to make Macron appear moderate and electable by comparison.

As if setting up a fake party and running a stalking horse candidate was elaborate enough effort to get Macron elected the Socialists have also abused the criminal justice systems to launch criminal cases against pretty much every single one of Macron's rivals.

They have particularly focused on the centre-right Republican Party candidate Francois Fillon who is seen as the only real alternative to Macron.

Taking a further leaf out of the US Democrats 2016 Macron's Socialists have also invented this elaborate Russian conspiracy against them.

They've accused Russian hackers of distributing fake news against them and Russian banks of funding Le Pen's campaign. Some Macron supporters have even tried blaming Russia for last night's attack.

In reality Russia have done pretty much everything in their power to destroy Le Pen's chances of election.

Just at the start of this month the Russian Bank Deposit Insurance Agency demanded the immediate repayment of a E9million loan to the Front Nationale. This effectively bankrupted the Le Pen campaign which is now only being kept afloat by family money.

As with Obama and Hillary Clinton Emanuel Macron will happily destroy the white space, the black space and the grey space. Just as long as he still gets to call himself President.

I think though the main motive though behind ISIL wanting to carry out an attack is that they are currently doing extremely badly both in Iraq and Syria.

Therefore they need a big display of their power over a high profile western location and a western election to keep their supporters supporting them. Both in terms of potential attackers and targets France provides them the best opportunity to do that.

At around 12:20 on 21/4/17 (UK date) I will be back to detail just how badly ISIL are doing both in Syria and Iraq. However the last time I said that on a Friday I wasn't allowed back on the Internet.

Edited at around 14:30 on 21/4/17 (UK date) to add;

Within Iraq and Syria ISIL are currently under intense pressure in two main areas. The city of Mosul in Iraq and the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam in Syria.

ISIL first captured Mosul when they invaded northern Iraq in the summer of 2014. Since then the city has functioned as their de facto capital within the country.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul. This is combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias which function as part of the ISF. The operation is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

The first stage of the operation was completed with the liberation of the entire eastern side of Mosul on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17). Following a short and planned pause the second phase of the operation to liberate Mosul's so-called "Right Bank" on the western side of the Tigris River was launched on February 19th (19/2/17).

As with the liberation of the eastern side of Mosul it has been the ISF who have taken the role of liberating the city itself. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF had reached the outskirts of the city. They advanced into the city in two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

By March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had reached the western Ramparts of the Old City liberating Mosul Railway station and the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This is the western most neighbourhood in a district of the city known as; "New Mosul."

The Golden Division axis then changed direction and headed north into the Hay al-Yarmuk district of the city. As of March 30th (30/3/17) the Golden Division had succeeded in liberating the Risala, Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi neighbourhoods of the Yarmuk district. They had also succeeded in liberating Orouba neighbourhood and the Industrial district which sit directly north of the Yarmuk neighbourhood.

On April 2nd (2/4/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the al-Tanak and al-Nahrwan neighbourhoods. The are the two most westerly neighbourhoods in the Yarmuk district.

Also on April 2nd (2/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Thawra neighbourhood. This sits east of the Yarmuk district, directly north of the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood which was liberated by the combined Rapid Reaction Force on March 30th (30/3/17). Bounded by the Old City Ramparts/Ibrahim al-Athir Street and the Fifth Bridge Road Qadhib al-Ban is the most north-easterly neighbourhood of the New Mosul district.

On April 5th (5/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Maghrib neighbourhood and had advanced into the Aabar and Malachin neighbourhoods. These are all on the eastern side of the Yarmuk district to the north of the al-Thawra neighbourhood.

On April 10th (10/4/17) the Golden Division completed the liberation of Aabar and Malachin neighbourhoods along with the small Sikak neighbourhood. These completed the successful liberation of the entire Hay al-Yarmouk district.

Yesterday (20/4/17) the Golden Division completed the liberation of the al-Nasr neighbourhood. This sits to the west of the Yarmuk district on the outskirts of the city.

As a result of these gains ISIL only control six neighbourhoods/districts in Mosul; The Hay al-Rabi, Hay al-Uraybi, Hay ar-Rafi and Hay 17 Tammuz all north of Hay al-Yarmuk along with Hay az-Zanjli north-east of the al-Tharwa (Hay as-Sinnah) neighbourhood.

By March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had reached the al-Tob neighbourhood at the very south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche area which sits directly east of the Old City along the banks of the Tigris between the al-Jamhuriya bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

The Federal Police then began the liberation of the Old City itself. From the al-Tob neighbourhood they advanced north along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west along Nineveh Street clearing the adjoining buildings as they went.

The Federal Police's ultimate objective is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the junction between Nineveh and al-Shaziani Streets. It is where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave one of his speeches declaring ISIL as a Caliphate back in 2014. Due to its immense significance to the group it is in this area that ISIL seem to have concentrated the bulk of their fighters.

At the end of March I estimated that on both the al-Shaziani and Nineveh Street axis the Federal Police were around 600 metres/yards fro the al-Nuri Mosque. That distance has now been cut to around 40 metres/yards on the al-Shaziani axis and 120 metres/yards on the Nineveh Street axis with the Mosque itself now surrounded on three sides.

In the planning for the Mosul operation it was always known that the Old City district would be the slowest and hardest of all the areas to liberate. Therefore it is important not to mistake the current steady but slow progress for a sign that the operation is starting to fail amid stiff resistance from ISIL. If anything the opposite is true.

Although there are still occasional artillery strikes and exchanges of heavy machine gun fire the combat within the Old City no longer really resembles what most people would recognise as a battle.

Instead it has become more of a slow waiting game with ISF snipers quietly watching for ISIL snipers to show themselves so they can kill them. Apparently in many places the ISF are now using slingshots and marbles to trick the ISIL snipers into thinking they're coming under fire. One large territorial gain within the Old City of around 100 metres/yards was the result of just 12 ISIL fighters being killed.

As control of Mosul starts to completely slip away from ISIL the group have responded by increasing their use of Chemical Weapons.

Both on April 15th (15/4/17) and again on April 16th (16/4/17) ISIL shelled Golden Division positions in the Orouba neighbourhood and the adjoining Industrial district with Chlorine Gas. Both American and Australian advisers were embedded with the Golden Division at the time. However there were no significant casualties. Apparently the six ISF soldiers effected by the gas didn't even need to be evacuated from the battlefield for medical treatment.

In response the Federal Police succeeded in killing the head of ISIL's Chemical Weapons program Abu Ahmed Gaz by shelling his location in the Zanjli neighbourhood on Thursday (20/4/17). The hope being that he was killed whilst visiting ISIL's last Chemical Weapons stockpile in the city.

Frustratingly I will have to leave developments in Tabqa until tomorrow. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) may well have liberated the entire town by then. 

16:05 on 21/4/17 (UK date).