Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 2, Day 3.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently coming under immense pressure in two main areas; The Tabqa Dam area in Syria and the city of Mosul in northern Iraq.

The town of Tabqa sits around 40km (25 miles) west on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria - on the southern banks of the Euphrates River. Tabqa Dam sits around 500 metres/yards outside of the town of Tabqa and spans the Euphrates forming Lake Assad.

In November 2016 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. The second phase of this operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from Tishrin Dam to Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the SDF succeeded in liberating Jabour Castle which sits on a peninsula in Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam.

On the night of March 21st (21/3/17) into March 22nd (22/3/17) the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) airdropped members of the SDF along with US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and US Marines on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa.

This marked the start of an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. It will see the SDF converge of Tabqa both from the north and the south.

To the south the SDF's first objective to advance on Tabqa airfield liberating a number of small villages as they went. This objective was achieved on March 27th (27/3/17). On March 28th (28/3/17) ISIL launched a small counter-offensive against SDF positions at the airfield which was quickly repelled.

On March 29th (29/3/17) the SDF advanced from the airfield to secure control of the M4 Motorway linking Tabqa to Raqqa via Abu Arif. This places the SDF within 2km (1.2 miles) of Tabqa which is close enough to see it with the naked eye.

The SDF's strategy to liberate Tabqa now appears to be to surround it on three sides in the hope that it will force the ISIL's fighters there to surrender. Based on experience of fighting ISIL elsewhere it seems extremely unlikely this will happen. However it's certainly something worth giving a try.

To the north of Tabqa the SDF's first objective was to advance from Jabour Castle onto the Tabqa Dam. This was achieved on March 24th (25/3/17) with the SDF entered the dam complex. On March 26th (26/3/17) they were able to secure partial control of the dam itself.

On March 27th (27/3/17) under a four hour truce brokered by the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) SDF engineers were able to inspect the dam and declare it to be structurally sound. On March 28th (28/3/17) those SDF engineers were able to open a spillway in order to start draining some of the water from Lake Assad.

I should point out that concerns about Tabqa Dam were never really that it would breach and collapse. Instead it was that the increased water levels from heavy snow/rain fall would cause Lake Assad to overtop flooding the areas upstream of the dam. Even those concerns were moderate rather than urgent. The opening of the spillway have reduced even further.

The entire area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River up to the border with Iraq has long been under the control of the SDF. Currently standing in excess of 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) this has been designated; "Shangri-La." To the west of the Euphrates along the border with Turkey there is the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road."

In August 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to occupy and invade Garvaghy Road.  On Wednesday (29/3/17) Erdogan announced that this operation - designated; "Euphrates Shield" - has ended. However no date has yet been given for the withdrawal of either the regular Turkish forces or the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) to withdraw from the area.

When it was launched back in November 2016 the SDF announced that the final objective of Wrath of Euphrates was to liberate Raqqa itself from ISIL. As the liberation of Tabqa has gotten underway some - most notably France with their looming April 23rd (23/4/17) election - have called for the liberation of Raqqa to begin almost immediately.

In order to see the type of problems that an operation to liberate Raqqa will entail and why it clearly requires much more planning you only need to look at that other area where ISIL are under immense pressure. Mosul in Iraq.

The operation to liberate Raqqa was launched on October 17th 2016 (20/10/16). It was intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces, the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) . It is supported by CJTFOIR.

On January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the eastern side of Mosul - the so-called; "Left Bank" - had been liberated. Following a short pause the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul - the so-called; "Right Bank" began on February 19th (19/2/17).

On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF - who have the lead role - entered western Mosul on two axis. The Federal Police element of the ISF at from the Mosul Airport/Ghazlani Military Base complex at the very south of the city. The Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) element of the ISF entered from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city.

As of March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element has entered Mosul's Old City district on two axis. One of these was from the Corniche of the banks of the Tigris River pushing west along Nineveh Street. The second of these was from the al-Tob neighbourhood pushing north along al-Shaziani Street.

On March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had reached the western Ramparts of the Old City liberating Mosul Railway station and the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This is the western most neighbourhood in a district of the city known as; "New Mosul."

Since then the Golden Division have continued to advance north adjacent to the Old City district. On March 21st (21/3/17) they liberated the Risala and Nablus neighbourhoods. These make up part of the Yarmuk district of the city which sits north-west of the New Mosul district.

On Sunday (26/3/17) the Golden Division element were able to liberate the Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi al-Ain neighbourhoods. These sit directly south of the Risala neighbourhood. The Golden Division were also able to liberate the Industrial Area and the Orouba neighbourhood which sit directly north of the Risala neighbourhood. Since then the Golden Division have been consolidating their gains.

Yesterday (30/3/17) the ISF's combined Rapid Reaction Force liberated the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood. This sits at the most north-easterly tip of the New Mosul district at the junction between the Old City Ramparts/Ibrahim al-Athir Street and the Fifth Bridge Road. It is easily identified by the sports stadium and the Qadhib al-Ban Mausoleum.

Within the Old City the Federal Police element of the ISF have continued to advance on the symbolic Nuri Mosque just north of the junction between Nineveh Street and al-Shaziani Street. However that progress has continued to be slow. Rather than talking in terms of districts, neighbourhoods or streets the gains are being measured in terms of individual houses.

The nature of Mosul's Old City which was largely built in the 8th Century meant that this was always planned to be the slowest part of the entire operation. However what is slowing things down further is the tactics being deployed by ISIL.

What ISIL are doing is that they are gathering the families from every four or five houses on a street and forcing them into one of the houses. The other houses are then rigged with explosives and ISIL fighters wearing suicide vests are moving between them using what are termed; "Rat Holes" cut in the walls of the buildings. This means the ISF never know which house the fighters are in and which houses the civilians are in.

While this is going on ISIL artillery, mortar and rocket positions in other districts such as Az Zanjili to the north are laying down covering fire on the ISIL occupied buildings in the Old City. This covering fire is supported by Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED). ISIL is establishing these VBIED factories and artillery firing positions on buildings which are packed with hidden civilians.

Rather than simply using the civilians as human shields ISIL's aim seems to be to bait the ISF and CJTFOIR into attacking these buildings killing the civilians. In doing this ISIL seem to have two main objectives;

The first of these is to increase pressure on CJTFOIR and the Iraqi government to call a ceasefire or at least stop using airpower in the Mosul operation. This will allow ISIL to cling on to the territory they still hold.

ISIL then hope that the high number of Sunni-Muslim civilians killed by the predominately Shia-Muslim ISF can been used to rally Mosul's remaining Sunni population to ISIL's cause. It was an alliance with the Turkish backed Sunni al-Nujaifi tribe that helped ISIL seize Mosul back in the summer of 2014.

The main issue with the civilian death toll though is not that CJTFOIR or the ISF are being particularly aggressive in their operations. Instead it is a problem with the perception of what the operation to liberate Mosul would entail.

The Mosul operation was launched back in October 2016. At the same time the Syrians backed by Russia were conducting an operation to liberate the eastern half of the Syrian city of Aleppo from the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah coalition.

What the Syrians and Russians did in east Aleppo City was pretty much a textbook example of how to liberate a city of that size.

They started by establishing humanitarian corridors to allow the civilian population to escape. They then dropped thousands of leaflets telling the civilians how to escape and urging them to do so. Next they conducted an air campaign to weaken the Army of Conquests defences before finally sending in a ground force to liberate the area.

The international community's only real objection to the liberation of east Aleppo City is that they were backing the Army of Conquest and the Army of Conquest was losing territory.

So as has been the pattern for the last six years of the war against Syria nations led by Erdogan's Turkey simply started making up accusations about grotesque civilian suffering in the hope they could force a ceasefire allowing the Army of Conquest to continue occupying east Aleppo City.

In order to keep using that tactic to protect the Army of Conquest in Syria CJTFOIR led by former US President Barack Obama set about the Mosul operation trying to prove that you could liberate a major city without there being high numbers of civilians deaths of a mass evacuation of civilians.

So rather than opening humanitarian corridors CJTFOIR under Obama's command dropped thousands leaflets telling Mosul's civilians to remain within their homes for their own safety.

My main concern about Obama is that he did realise he was simply lying to protect the Army of Conquest and actually believed what he was saying was true.

It has though now become obvious to all that the Syrians and Russians were right and you can't liberate a major city without mass civilian evacuations or high numbers of civilian casualties the residents of Mosul are obviously feeling as though they've been lied to.

Although Obama as the man who lied to them all is no longer in power now the operation has begun it is too late to change things.

Recently I've led lots of people suggesting that CJTFOIR and the ISF should try and reduce the toll on Mosul's civilians by opening humanitarian corridors. This is a lot easier to say then do.

In order to open a humanitarian corridor you first need to choose a road to act as that corridor. You then need to send in troops to clear the buildings for at least a street either side of this road to establish a perimeter.

If you have never been in a physical fight it is hard for you to conceive of just how violent that process is. When the Mosul operation began I commented that it wasn't a battle until someone had smashed a bayonet through someone elses' skull. Rather than being a joke I actually know someone who killed an Iraqi soldier in just that way during Desert Storm.

Once you have cleared the buildings on either side of the road you then need to send troops into those buildings to secure that perimeter. For as long as you want to keep the humanitarian corridor open those troops will be sitting in those buildings with a massive target painted on them.

That means they will be constantly saturated with sniper fire, heavy machine gun fire, rocket propelled grenades, mortars, rockets and artillery. Many of them will be killed, many of them will be wounded and others will be so psychologically broken by the bombardment they will no longer be able to fight.

Once you have done all that you still have the problem that ISIL won't let the civilians leave and have had five months making sure they are unable to escape.

My only hope is that these mistakes are not repeated with any potential operation to liberate Raqqa.

16:30 on 31/3/17 (UK date).