Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 4, Day 5.

Within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) continues.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have now begun to enter and liberate the Old City district of western Mosul. Parts of Mosul's Old City date back to the Assyrian Empire of around 2500B.C. The majority of this Old City was developed in the 8th Century A.D.

As a result Mosul's Old City is made up of tightly packed buildings and narrow passage ways to narrow to ride a horse down let alone drive a modern military vehicle. Therefore as the battle has moved into this area the fighting has slowed to a walking pace. However it is important not to mistake for this slowing of progress as a sign that the operation is failing. If anything it continues to progress faster than had been expected.

ISIL of course do not only operate in Iraq and Mosul is certainly not the only area where they have come under immense pressure recently.

On March 4th 2017 (4/3/17) ISIL were also ousted from the Syrian city of Palmyra. This sits almost directly in the centre of Syria roughly 280km (170 miles) north-east of the Syrian capital Damascus and 220km (130 miles) south-west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria.

In April 2015 the extreme Islamist Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition launched their so-called; "Northwestern Offensive" from Idlib City - roughly 260km (155 miles) north-west of Palmyra. It's objective to was to capture the town of Jisr al-Shugur from the Syrians.

The Army of Conquest coordinated this offensive with their ISIL allies and with the Syrians being forced to fight on two fronts the Army of Conquest were able to seize Jisr al-Shugur while ISIL were able to capture Palmyra in May 2015.

In March 2016 Syrian forces backed by Russia launched an offensive of their own to liberate Palmyra from ISIL. This was successfully completed in a little over two weeks with Palmyra being liberated on March 27th 2016 (27/3/16).

In November through to December of 2016 the Syrians turned their attentions to liberating all of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. This sits roughly 70km (40 miles) north-east of Idlib City. The operation was highly successful with all of Aleppo City being liberated on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16).

However during the course of the Aleppo City operation the Army of Conquest's allies ISIL again launched an operation to capture Palmyra on approximately December 8th 2016 (8/12/16). As with the events of the spring of 2015 the intention was to split the Syrian's forces in order to allow ISIL to take the pressure off the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City. Although that failed ISIL were able to seize Palmyra for a second time on December 22nd 2016 (22/12/17).

On January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) the Syrians backed by Russia launched an operation to liberate Palmyra for a second time.

By January 19th (19/1/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra's military airbase. By February (24/2/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra encircling the city. On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrians entered Palmyra itself and by March 4th (4/3/17) the city had been fully liberated from ISIL.

Complicating matters further Syrian forces have been aided by the Lebanese political party-cum-militia Hezbollah.

Longterm allies of Syria Hezbollah were invited to assist in the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest in 2012. Since then they have operated as part of the Syrian forces playing a crucial role both in defeating ISIL to the point they were forced to invade Iraq in 2014 and in liberating Palmyra both in 2016 and this month.

A Shia-Muslim group Hezbollah were formed in response to Israel's invasion and occupation of Lebanon from 1982 until 1985. As such their primary objective is to fight Israel.

In the immediate term Hezbollah's involvement in the war in Syria against the Army of Conquest and ISIL has been to Israel's advantage. In short with Hezbollah being busy fighting ISIL and the Army of Conquest they haven't had much time left over to fight Israel.

However in the longer term Hezbollah's involvement in the Syria conflict presents a number of security problems for Israel.

As payment for their support Hezbollah are being rewarded with some of the more advanced weapons system's from the Syrian national armoury and their fighters are gaining highly valuable combat experience. As a result Israel has recently reclassified Hezbollah from being a terrorist group to being a conventional military force.

In 1967 Israel and Lebanon's neighbour Syria declared war on Israel by invading it. Although this is often referred to as; "The Six Day War" it is technically still going on. As is their right under international law Israel has periodically used the existing state of war to conduct airstrikes in Syria to stop Hezbollah transferring weapons from Syria to Lebanon.

In the wake of the liberation of Palmyra a very attractive opportunity presented itself to Israel.

Over the course of the last week it has been rumoured that senior Russian, Syrian and Hezbollah military figures have been meeting in Palmyra to plan an operation to fully liberate the city of Deir-ez-Zour - some 230km (140 miles) north-east of Palmyra.

As with Aleppo City prior to the December 2016 liberation control of Deir-ez-Zour has long been divided between ISIL and the Syrians. One of the Hezbollah representatives at these meetings was Badie Hamya - a very senior military leader within the group.

So last night the Israeli Air Force launched an operation to successfully attack Hezbollah positions at Palmyra and kill Badie Hamya. In response to this strike Syria activated its air defence systems and fired a number of Anti--Aircraft Missiles at the four Israel jets as they were leaving Syrian airspace.

This prompted Israel to sound its civilian air attack sirens and fire anti-missile missiles to shoot down the Syrian missiles. The majority of the wreckage from the successful shooting down of the Syrian missiles ended up landing in Syria and Israel's neighbour Jordan.

Although I think last night's raid was merely Israel taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself rather than a wider change in strategy it does present yet another reason why ISIL and their associates needed to be defeated sooner rather than later.

Israel has become increasingly concerned about the growth of Hezbollah within Syria and has lobbied both the US and Russia for action to be taken against them. As experience has shown if Israel does not feel that enough action is being taken on its behalf it will take action itself.

The problem is that if Hezbollah are forced to end its support for Syria then it will greatly reduce those prepared to fight against ISIL and their associates.

That creates a very real risk that the Army of Conquest in particular could continue to grow in Syria. Due to the Army of Conquest's genocidal massacres of Druze villagers close to the border with Israel back in the summer of 2015 Israel has already threatened to intervene in Syria against the Army of Conquest.

So until ISIL and the Army of Conquest are defeated we're going to be left with the same problem of potential Israeli intervention.

16:45 on 17/3/17 (UK date).