Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 5, Day 1.

In my post on Friday (17/3/17) I wrote about the Syrians latest liberation of the city of Palmyra from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Any discussion of ISIL's occupation of Palmyra inevitably touches on the close alliance between ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

In April 2015 the Army of Conquest conducted their Northwestern Offensive against the town of Jisr al-Shugur in Idlib Province. This was coordinated with ISIL who captured Palmyra for the first time in May 2015.

Following the Army of Conquest's collapse in Aleppo City ISIL tried to return the favour by launching a second attempt to capture Palmyra in December 2016. ISIL's intention being to split the Syrian forces to relieve the pressure on the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City.

Following the liberation of all of Aleppo City the remaining areas under Army of Conquest occupation have been subject to the so-called; "Astana Ceasefire." This was introduced on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) following the first meeting of the Astana Process between Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iran and the insurgents within Syria.

The Astana Ceasefire does not and has never included ISIL. Nor does it include Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) even though they have recently taken to referring to themselves as the Front for the Conquest of the Levant/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

Curiously the Astana Ceasefire also does not apply to the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This was done at the request of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan in order to allow him to continue supporting ISIL by attacking the SDF within the area designated as; "Garvaghy Road."

What confuses matters is that the Support Front do not operate in isolation. Instead as the name suggests they operate as the key structure within the Army of Conquest coalition.

The other significant groups within the coalition are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash- Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Erdogan backed United Turkmen Army (UTA). The coalition also includes factions of the now collapsed Free Syrian Army (FSA) who find themselves trapped in areas under occupation by the Army of Conquest.

Therefore the question has always been whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, the JAI and the UTA who are allied with Al Qaeda and by extension ISIL?

An attempt was made to answer this question with the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism at the second meeting of the Astana Process held on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17). This establishes Russia, Turkey and Iran as the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire. In that role the three nations have held a series of meetings to determine who exactly the Astana Ceasefire applies to and whether there have been any violations.

The indications from these technical meetings is that the Astana Ceasefire does not apply to any member of the Army of Conquest coalition.

In the run-up to the Astana meeting in January almost all the focus was on the Army of Conquest occupied villages of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh which are around 10km (6 miles) outside of the Syrian capital Damascus. Despite the Astana Ceasefire the Syrians have been able to continue their operations against the Army of Conquest with both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh being fully liberated on January 28th (28/1/17).

The Astana Ceasefire also seems to have had no impact on the Syrians efforts to liberate East Ghouta from the Army of Conquest. This is a suburb of Damascus located around 1km (0.6 miles) outside of the city limits. It is particularly important within the Astana Process because it is a power base of the Army of Islam. Despite numerous allegations of genocide and executing members of ISIL for being too moderate the Army of Islam are the sole representatives of the insurgent groups within the Astana Process.

The Astana Ceasefire has also not restricted the Syrians efforts to liberate all of the city of Homs from the Army of Conquest. Homs is located around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus and around 220km (130 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.

Rather like Aleppo City the Army of Conquest have occupied roughly a quarter of Homs City since 2014. On Saturday (18/3/17) the Army of Conquest were finally defeated in Homs City and have begun withdrawing to their bastion around the city of Idlib which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Discussions within the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism are obviously extremely delicate. Particularly as the tensions rise amid the Army of Conquests increasing defeats. Back on March 6th (6/3/17) I commented that it was becoming increasingly clear that those discussions were not going Erdogan's way. This seems to have triggered a flurry of activity.

On March 7th (7/3/17) Russia as one of the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire declared a 23 day "Regime of Quiet" in East Ghouta  above and beyond the Astana Ceasefire. However on March 8th (8/3/17) Russia conducted airstrikes against Army of Conquest positions in East Ghouta.

On March 10th (10/3/17) a helicopter crashed in the Turkish city of Istanbul killing four Russian executives for the joint Russian-Turkish construction conglomerate Ezacacibasi.

Although bad weather was officially blamed this crash occurred as Erdogan was meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia. It seemed intended to send the threat that Erdogan would break off Turkish business ties with Russia unless the Army of Conquest was included in the Astana Ceasefire.

The particular model of helicopter that crashed was a Sikorsky S-76. The Sikorsky Aircraft Company was founded by Igor Sikorsky a Russian who emigrated to the US in 1919. The success this Russian inventor has brought to the US particularly during the Cold War remains something of a sensitive topic within Russia.

Also at the end of February 2017 Erdogan announced a USD3.5bn partnership between Sikorsky - now part of Lockheed Martin - and Turkey. As such it also seemed to serve as a threat that unless Russia gave him what he wanted Erdogan would repair his relationship with the US. Attempting to play Russia and the US off against each other has been a key part of Erdogan's recent strategy within Syria.

On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Islam demanded that the next meeting of Astana Process be delayed until of the Army of Conquest is included in the Astana Ceasefire. That demand was not met so on March 13th (13/3/17) the Army of Islam announced they would boycott the meeting.

With the Army of Islam being the sole representatives of the insurgents this meant the meeting went ahead on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) without the insurgents being represented. There were no significant developments.

Even before matters started to come to a head at the start of March the Army of Conquest has been increasing its own violent attacks within Syria.

On February 25th (25/2/17) the Army of Conquest  conducted six coordinated suicide bomb attacks within Homs City. These attacks were focused on the headquarters of the of the Syria State Security and Military Intelligence within the city. They succeeded in killing General Hassan Daabul - a senior figure within Military Intelligence - along with 41 others.

On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted twin bomb attacks at the Bab al-Saghir Cemetery which sits between East Ghouta and Damascus itself. Bab al-Saghir Cemetery is the site of a Shia-Muslim shrine and this attack by the Sunni-Muslim Army of Conquest was focused on Shia Pilgrims from Iraq. It succeeded in killing at least 60 and wounding 170.

On March 15th (15/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted two coordinated suicide attacks within Damascus itself. The first targeted the Palace of Justice which houses Syria's highest Court. The second struck a restaurant in the Rabweh district of the city. The twin attacks succeeded in killing 51 people - mainly civilians. 31 at the Palace of Justice and 20 in the restaurant.

Yesterday (19/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault on the Jobar district of Damascus itself. Although the details are not clear it seems that this attack was launched through tunnels that the Army of Conquest had dug from the East Ghouta suburb.

Rather than being a sign of strength this recent upsurge of attacks instead the weakness of the Army of Conquest.

What they're trying to do is use the threat of these attacks to intimidate Syria, Russia and Iran into including them in the Astana Ceasefire. Unless the ceasefire is extended to them the Army of Conquest are faced with certain defeat.

For example yesterday's attack on Jobar was far from a success. It lasted less than 12 hours and the indications are that the Syrians have not only withstood the attack but have begun rolling the Army of Conquest back from positions they held prior to the assault being launched.

At around 18:00 on 21/3/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:55 on 21/3/17 (UK date) to add;

Complicating the Astana Process even further it has occurred during the US Presidential transition. When the first meeting in the process occurred on December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) we had US President Barack Obama. Now just after the third meeting in the process we have US President Donald Trump.

Under former President Obama the US was extremely protective of the Army of Conquest - including the Al Qaeda element.

Not only would Obama not allow the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - to conduct airstrikes against Al Qaeda he also loudly condemned those such as Syria and Russia who did. Obama also supplied weapons to members of the Army of Conquest. Many of these such as Division 30 (Division 30) then immediately took those weapons and handed them to Al Qaeda.

Under President Trump the US has continued to deliver weapons to Al Qaeda within Syria. However CJTFOIR is now doing it in a very different way.

Throughout this six year conflict the Army of Conquest's strategy has been clear;

The Army of Conquest launch attacks against the Syrians. When the Syrians retaliate the Army of Conquest claim that the military targets destroyed were civilian targets. The Army of Conquest would then accuse the Syrians of crimes against humanity and demand that a ceasefire is put in place to protect them while they carry out further attacks. A key part of this strategy has been the Army of Conquest's propaganda division - the White Helmets.

President Trump's shift to conducting airstrikes against Al Qaeda in Syria has made it much harder for the Army of Conquest to continue this strategy of lies.

On February 2nd (2/2/17) the White Helmets declared that the local headquarters of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) in Idlib City had been destroyed in a brutal Russian airstrike. However on February 9th (9/2/17) the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. It had done so in order to kill Abu Hani al-Masri a very senior figure within Al Qaeda who'd been using the SARC building as his base of operations.

On February 26th (26/2/17) the White Helmets declared that brutal Russian airstrikes had targeted a SARC aid convoy on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. Again though the US confirmed that they had carried out the airstrikes. Rather than targeting an aid convoy they had struck Army of Conquest military vehicles in order to kill Abu al-Kahyr al-Masri. Another very senior Al Qaeda leader.

Late on Thursday (16/3/17) the White Helmets declared that they Russians had brutally bombed a Mosque in Jeeneh again on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. The White Helmets went on to claim that at least 35 civilians had been murdered in what they declared to be a crime against humanity.

On the occasion the US wasted no time in setting the White Helmets straight. Within hours of the initial claim the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. They had most certainly not bombed the Mosque. Instead they had successfully targeted a meeting of senior Al Qaeda leaders which was located on the same street as the Mosque.

Despite this on Saturday (18/3/17) Erdogan told a political rally that the airstrike had targeted a Mosque and that it was a crime against humanity. The implication being that he was accusing the US of a crime against humanity. 

What is interesting is that immediately after the airstrike the US conducted standard surveillance of the area which confirmed both that the strike had been a success and that the Mosque was undamaged.

However shortly after Erdogan made his claims on Saturday (18/2/17) the White Helmets released footage showing the Mosque in ruins. That would suggest that someone has come in a day after the airstike had taken place and then blown up the Mosque.

With no other airstrikes being reported in the area that would suggest that the Army of Conquest had destroyed the Mosque themselves purely for propaganda purposes. Either with demolition charges or their notorious "Hell Cannon" artillery.

20:35 on 21/3/17 (UK date).