Operation Featherweight: month 32, Week 2, Day 4

As I seem to find myself saying every day;

Key to the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups is the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.

This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.

Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.

Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. Since then Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive making a series of highly dangerous moves;

On Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobane where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.

On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces attacked Syria forces at Tedef - 1km (06 miles) south of al-Bab - killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.


On Tuesday (28/2/17) Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij. This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."

Yesterday (1/3/17) Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.

Those airstrikes were followed up in the afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town.

I ended my post yesterday (1/3/17) by saying that we were awaiting a response from CJTFOIR.

It was around two hours after that post that we got that response from CJTFOIR. They simply blamed the Russians.

In a routine press conference CJTFOIR's US Lt. General Townsend announced that Russian and Syrian aircraft had attacked SDF positions thinking they were ISIL positions.

Although he gave no specific location Lt. Gen Townsend said they had occurred in the vicinity of Manbij and around 30km (18 miles) from where US SOF's were located. He went on to explain that the US had contacted Russia via the deconfliction hotline that exists between the two nations and the airstrikes stopped. Lt. Gen Townsend had no comment on the Tal Rifat strikes.

Obviously I was following events in and around Manbij extremely closely yesterday. As such I can assure you that the airstrikes occurred around the small town of Arima which sits around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij and around 20km (12 miles) north-east of al-Bab along the M4 Motorway.

I can also assure you that they were carried out by F-16 fighter/multi-role jets.

If you are familiar with different types of warplanes which the people in northern Syria are F-16's look and sound extremely different from the Su-24's, Su-27's and Su-30's that are used by the Russian and Syrian airforces. For example the F-16 is a single engined aircraft while all the Su's are twin engined. The F-16 has a single tail while the Su-27's and Su-30's in particular have twin tails and a very distinctive, almost crick in their neck.

The airstrikes were also accompanied by artillery strikes from Erdogan's forces located in and around al-Bab.

So the only two things about Lt. Gen Townsend's account was that the strikes came close to killing US SOF's and the only way that CJTFOIR could stop them was by contacting Russia to contact Turkey under the Astana ceasefire mechanism.

Obviously having saved US troops from attack by Erdogan's forces the Russians are not happy about being blamed for the attack. However that seems to be exactly the point.

If CJTFOIR wanted to protect US troops in Manbij or elsewhere from attacks by Erdogan's aircraft they could do so quite easily. They would simply deploy the Avenger weapons system which is essentially a battery of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles mounted on the back of a Humvee. I gather protesters at the Dakota Access Pipeline site are extremely familiar with this weapons system.

However one NATO member shooting down the aircraft of another NATO member is likely to be extremely politically sensitive. Looking at the current anti-Russian rhetoric within US politics Erdogan has got to be calculating that there is no way that US President Trump would dare shoot down ISIL's airforce even if it is attacking US troops.

After all what caused the breakdown in US-Russian relations between the 2009 "Re-set" and now is the 2011 rise of ISIL. In short Russia opposes ISIL while US Democrats support them. So the US Democrats anti-Russian hysteria is actually what they view as a publicly acceptable expression of their support for ISIL.

Yesterday was something of a busy day for the Russia issue within US politics.

Firstly the bipartisan House of Representatives intelligence committee approved an investigation by themselves into links between Russia and President Trump's election campaign. These of course are the allegations that the New York Times reported on February 23rd (23/2/17) have already been completely dismissed as untrue by the FBI.

Secondly the US broadcaster that has become known as the "Clinton News Network" (CNN) held a televised Town Hall-style event with the Republican Senators and close friends John McCain and Lindsey Graham - two very vocal critics of President Trump.

Senator McCain in particular is someone that I used to have a lot of respect for. In fact I even endorsed him for President in 2008 against Barack Obama. However since that defeat McCain seems to have wandered off into his dotage.

Since at least 2013 McCain has been a vocal supporter and frequent visitor to a number of Erdogan-backed, ISIL affiliated armed groups  in northern Syria. Particularly the Northern Storm Brigade out of Azaz. They now fight as part of Erdogan's United Turkmen Army (UTA) within Garvaghy Road. In short John McCain is friends with the people who've just been shooting at US troops.

As recently as January 2017 Sen McCain has been visiting with armed groups inside the former Ukraine. This visit in particular seems to have given actual World War Two Nazis the confidence to launch an attack against a railway line and then the eastern city of Avdiivka in complete violation of the Minsk Protocol.

So when it comes to Russia John McCain has started to remind me of the Madame Fanny La Fan character from the British sitcom "Allo Allo." This senile old biddy would lie in bed all day until someone mentioned the Germans and she would spit on the floor in disgust.

It would seem I'm not the only one starting to think that way. Last Thursday (23/2/17) the US' SOF's based in Kobane brought John McCain over on a special visit. The purpose seemed to be to force him to look in the eye each person that he is trying to get killed.

As such Lt. Gen Townsend's comments yesterday seemed to be a little reminder to US politicians - particularly Republicans - that the US is currently relying on Russia to protect US troops and by extension US civilians from ISIL and their backer Erdogan. As such it seems unwise to berate Russia to the point they're no longer prepared to do the US this massive favour.

To put it more explicitly; Ideally everyone would prefer it if members of the US Congress didn't make up lies to play their grubby little games. However pragmatically they can be free to lie as much as they like but they'd better steer clear of the lies about Russia. After all this is reality.

Given his 23 years of military service and two years on the Senate Armed Services Committee you would think Senator McCain would be better placed than most to pick up on that sort of hint.

At around 18:15 on 2/3/17 (UK date) I have much more to add after dinner.

Edited at around 19:40 on 2/3/17 (UK date) to add;

In today's edition the Hillary Clinton endorsing Washington Post newspaper decided to firmly nail their colours to the mast.

They reported details of US Attorney General Jeff Sessions contacts with Russia during the election campaign. Specifically that he had attended a party that was also attended by the Russian Ambassador to the US - Segei Kislyak and in his role as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee had met with Kislyak in September 2016.

Under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations this is exactly the point of an Ambassador. Regardless of what country they're from or what country they're in the job of an Ambassador is to talk to members of the host government or candidates for election to help understand their position and put forward their own government's position.

The role of Ambassador's is particularly important between nations that don't like each other. There they are often the only form of communication between nations.

I think probably the most famous example of this from US history was the so-called "14-part message" of December 7th 1941 that was sent via the Japanese Ambassador to the US warning that war had been declared and the Pearl Harbour attack was imminent. The failure of the Ambassador to make timely contact with US government officials remains an issue of great controversy to this day.

Of course if the US wants to break with several hundred years of diplomatic convention and stop an Ambassador from a certain nation having contact with members of it's government it is free to expel that Ambassador from the country.

However to put things in perspective I think I should point out that even after Pearl Harbour the US did not expel the Japanese Ambassador. Nor did they expel various Ambassadors of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis in which Anatoly Dobrynin played a vital role in preventing a nuclear holocaust.

In choosing to publish their frankly non-story today the Washington Post seem to have intentionally timed their move to give succour to Erdogan in the Garvaghy Road standoff.

From experience we know exactly what happens when Erdogan doesn't get his own way - let alone when someone shoots down one of his planes. Erdogan dispatches terrorists disguised as refugees to conduct attacks against the nation that is standing in his way.

Being aware of this President Trump issued a number of executive orders temporarily pausing the flow of migrants - particularly refugees - from nations where Erdogan affiliated terror groups are known to operate. However fixated on the sanctuary city issue three Judges in San Francisco groundlessly imposed a restraining order on that pause.

Today President Trump was widely expected to issue a new executive order to nullify those San Fransisco Judges actions. Obviously that has not happened because of the Washington Post and the US continues to be exposed.

Also today despite the US Democrats rantings Russia has moved to put in place a more durable solution to the Garvaghy Road standoff.

Russia has brokered an agreement that has seen the SDF hand its positions around Arima to Syrian forces. This means that if Erdogan wants to launch another attack on Manbij he will have to fight his way through the Syrian forces in what will be a clear act of illegal, aggressive war.

So basically US troops in Manbij are currently not being protected by the US government but by the Syrian government backed by the Russian government.

I think the message is that you can rant and rave against the Russians all you like. But the Russians are going to make you look foolish.

20:35 on 2/3/17 (UK date).