Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 3, Day 4.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. Since the summer of 2014 Mosul has functioned as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) de facto capital in Iraq.

The operation was intended as a combined one with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) all working together. It is backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

On January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating the entire eastern side of Mosul. On February 19th (19/2/17) the next phase of the operation was launched to liberate the western side of the city.

On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF who are taking the lead role had entered the western side of Mosul itself via the Ghazlani military base and Mosul International Airport which sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of western Mosul.

By March 1st (1/3/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating everything south of the Fourth Bridge road. This included the Fourth Bridge itself and the four neighbourhoods between the airport/Ghazlani complex and the road.

Entering the city from the south-west a separate column of the ISF had also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan and Hay al-Mamum neighbourhoods. These sit directly to the north-west of the Ghazlani base.

By Tuesday (6/3/17) the ISF had advanced north on the southern axis across the Fourth Bridge road and succeeded in liberating the al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods.

This included liberating the Hurriyah Bridge and parts of the Hurriyah Bridge road. The ISF also succeeded in liberating the government complex that sits between the al-Dawasa neighbourhood and the Old City neighbourhood. In the process the ISF appear to have broken through one of ISIL's key defensive lines within the city.

On the south-west axis the ISF also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood on Tuesday (6/3/17). This placed the Hay al-Mansur neighbourhood on the other side of the Mosul to Baghdad road under siege on three sides.

Today on the southern axis the ISF have advanced into the al-Akidat neighbourhood. This sits directly west of the al-Dindan neighbourhood north of the Fourth Bridge road and the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.

On the south-western axis the ISF have succeeded in liberating the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This sits directly to the north of the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood.

Roughly 10km (6 miles) to the north-west of Mosul the ISF and the PMF have continued their joint operation to liberate the town of Badush. Yesterday (8/3/17) they succeeded in liberating Badush prison which was the seen of a horrific ISIL massacre in the summer of 2014. Today they have liberated Badush power station.

Directly to the west of the city the PMF succeeded in liberating the village of al-Dinarj. This sits roughly 7km (4 miles) west of Mosul. Along with the gains at Badush this gives the ISF the option of opening a third and fourth axis' to increase the pressure on ISIL within Mosul's western side.

As I've said throughout while it will be an absolutely huge step forward the liberation of Mosul will not mean the end of ISIL in Iraq. They still posses other holdouts within the country. Chief amongst these is the Hawija Triangle which sits around 170km (100 miles) south-west of Mosul.

Sadly late last night ISIL proved my point. They conducted a suicide bomb attack against a wedding in the village of Hajjaj which killed at least 21. Hajjaj sits on the western side of the Hawija Triangle some 30km (18 miles) south of Baiji and 40km (25 miles) north of Tikrit.

Even if the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) do overcome their differences to liberate the Hawija Triangle realistically ISIL will remain a threat to Iraq and the wider world until they are totally defeated in Iraq and Syria.

Key to defeating ISIL in Syria is an area that has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." This stretches for roughly 100km (60 miles) of Syria's border with Turkey between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east.

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and illegally occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to keep open supply lines between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa - some 200km (120 miles) to the south-east.

To the east of the Euphrates River you have a vast 15,200 kmsq (9,120 milesq) area under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This area has been designated; "Shangri-La."

Since the August 24th (24/8/16) invasion Erdogan has been desperate for his forces to advance east to capture Shangri-La and defeat the SDF who have been the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria.

On March 1st 2017 (1/3/17) Erdogan pushed ahead with this plan attacking the SDF at the town of Manbij on the western bank of the Euphrates. This prompted several days of crisis. Particularly for the US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with the SDF in Manbij.

Under pressure from those US SOF's since November 2016 the SDF have been conducting an operation of their own within Shangri-La. Designated; "Wrath of Euphrates" this has been focused on expanding the size of Shangri-La by slowly encircling and then eventually storming Raqqa.

The first phase of this operation launched on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) focused on the SDF advancing south from the village of Ayn Issa which sits around 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa. This phase was completed on November 25th (25/11/16).

The second phase of the operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) focused on the SDF advancing south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from the town of Sarrin. This was completed on January 5th 2017 (5/1/17) with the SDF having advanced to Lake Assad some 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa.

The third phase of the operation launched on February 4th 2017 (4/2/17) focused on the SDF advancing to the east of Raqqa to cut it off from the town of Deir-ez-Zour around 150km (90 miles) to the south-east.

This was completed on Monday March 6th (6/3/17) with the SDF seizing control of the Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road some 20km (12 miles) from Raqqa. However the route between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour remains open due to the M4 Motorway which runs south of the Euphrates.

At around 18:35 on 9/3/17 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:40 on 9/3/17 (UK date) to add;

Today the US has confirmed that it has deployed around 250 Marines from the 4th Division of the US Marine Corp to Syria to participate in the Wrath of Euphrates operation.

Unlike the Green Berets and Navy SEAL's who have long been embedded with the SDF these US Marines are not Special Operators. Instead they are a conventional ground unit. Albeit a very capable one. Their mission is to provide artillery support to the SDF, presumably as they mount an assault on Raqqa.

This deployment seems primarily to send a message. It sends the message to Erdogan that his aggression within Garvaghy Road will not prompt the US to withdraw the forces it has embedded with the SDF. Domestically it reminds states such as Washington, Minnesota and Hawaii that the current executive orders are a matter of national security, not a party political plaything.

However if these US Marines plan on actually doing anything within Syria that could severely jeopardise the fight against ISIL.

The whole Wrath of Euphrates operation was drawn up by former US President Obama as a panicked  response to his plan to liberate Mosul.

The only consideration Obama gave to the Mosul operation was secure a big flag waving victory to propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential election. The key part of the plan was to leave the west of Mosul completely undefended to allow ISIL fighters to withdraw without much of a fight and return to Raqqa.

Then at a NATO meeting in October 2016 it was pointed out to Obama that if ISIL fighters could flee to Raqqa then they could also travel via Garvaghy Road to Turkey and from there to world. So in response Obama suddenly came up with this plan for the SDF to liberate Raqqa.

As I've said before although they are a highly capable force the SDF are a small guerrilla-style force totally unequipped to liberate a city the size of Raqqa. This is so obvious that it seems Obama's main hope was that the SDF would be wiped out in the effort. This would save his designated successor President Hillary Clinton from having to engage in tedious negotiations with Erdogan about what to do about the SDF.

Hillary Clinton of course lost the 2016 Presidential Election. This prompted Obama to even more aggressively pursue his strategy to destroy the SDF. The idea being to remove the most effective anti-ISIL force to doom incoming US President Trump to failure.

The deployment of the 4th Marines is part of Obama's post-defeat plan for failure.

The other two elements of Obama's strategy to defeat the SDF were to create a rival power structure within the SDF - the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) - and to establish a rival Syrian Kurdish force - the Roj Peshmerga. Just in the past week we have seen the effect Obama's strategy has had in undermining in the SDF with the Roj Peshmerga launching an attack on the SDF affiliated Shingal Protection Units (YBS) around Shingal/Sinjar in Iraq.

As such before any SDF operation to liberate Raqqa can take place a number of things need to happen.

The first of these is undoing all the work that Obama has done to undermine the SDF in the past five months. This means disbanding both the SAC and the Roj Peshmerga. I have absolutely no objection to members of those two groups then immediately being reabsorbed into the SDF but they must do so as part of the existing command structure not in rival to it.

Then the US needs to work with the SDF to make sure that they have the equipment and training require to mount an operation of the scale of liberating Raqqa. This will likely mean bringing in local forces from outside of Syria such as the ISF.

In the meantime there is the issue of the Tabqa Dam which is by far a much more immediate operational priority than Raqqa.

Damming the Euphrates River to create Lake Assad the Tabqa Dam sits around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. It represents the main crossing point over the Euphrates connecting Raqqa with Garvaghy Road. Due to the second phase of the Wrath of Euphrates operation the SDF are currently within 8km (5 miles) of the dam.

This past winter into spring has seen unusually heavy snow and then rain across the region. Added to that ISIL are currently only using three of the Tabqa Dam's eight turbines reducing the flow of water down stream.

As a result water levels in Lake Assad have risen dramatically at a rate of around 3 metres/yards per week. This has created grave concern that the Euphrates could burst its banks catastrophically flooding SDF controlled areas such as Sarrin.

As such rather than rushing into a losing battle for Raqqa it would make a lot more sense for the SDF to liberate the Tabqa Dam in order to protect the people and areas they have already liberated.

20:25 on 9/3/16 (UK date).