Wednesday 8 March 2017

The UK Budget 2017: Spring Edition.

Under the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair the UK got itself into rather a strange habit. The government would lay out its budget in the spring. Then in the autumn they would present a second sort of mini-budget.

This was done entirely to give Chancellor (Chief Finance Minister) and Prime Minister Blair's great rival Gordon Brown more screen time. In 2010 what by then was Gordon Brown's Labour government was replaced by successive governments led by Prime Minister David Cameron. He had the same problem with his Chancellor George Osborne also wanting more time in the spotlight. So the practice continued.

In the summer of 2016 Prime Minister Cameron quit leading to George Osborne effectively being fired by his own Conservative Party. In the autumn of 2016 the new Chancellor Phillip Hammond announced that this pratice would finally stop. The UK would simply lay out one budget. In the autumn. However this change has meant that this year the UK government will lay out two budgets. One in the spring and one in the autumn.

The spring budget was announced today. The big macroeconomic headline was that the pre-Brexit predictions of the UK economy entering into recession were false.

The UK is expected to grow by 2% during 2017. While the Brexit negotiations are taking place that growth is expected to dip slightly to 1.6% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. However once the uncertainty of those negotiations is over and the economy is effectively taken off pause mode growth is expected to return to 2% in 2021.

In the Parliament of 2010 to 2015 Chancellor Osborne's big thing was austerity - eliminating the national debt by 2020. Although he never admitted it publicly reality forced Osborne to abandon this policy in around 2013. In the autumn 2016 budget Chancellor Hammond formally scrapped it. However in this budget he announced he intends to reduce the national debt from 86.6% this year to 79.8% by 2021.

This objective made Chancellor Hammond's plans for Corporation Tax hard to explain. This year it will be cut from 20% to 19% and to 17% by 2020. Hammond boasted that this would give the UK the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20. However I'm not sure that's a boast.

To make up the shortfall between cutting corporation tax and cutting the national debt Chancellor Hammond seems to have decided to whack the little guy.

Although technically not part of this budget business rates across the UK are being recalculated for the first time in, I think, seven years.

This tax rate is calculated on the value of the property from where the business operates. This building is often owned by the type of large corporation that have just seen their tax rate cut. However the business rate is paid by the business owner who often rents the property. Some business owners have seen their tax bill increase by some 400%.

During the budget Chancellor Hammond announced some small assistance for the worst hit business and promised to review the matter in the autumn budget. However the amount of assistance offered is tiny compared to the rate of the tax increase.

Chancellor Hammond also targeted the rate of National Insurance (payroll tax) paid by the self-employed and the amount of tax free dividends a small business owner can withdraw each year.

This has been billed as a way to tackle tax avoidance. Essentially what a person - often a TV journalist - can do  is set up a small business and class themselves as self-employed by that business. However the business will only have the one customer - the person's actual employer.

This set up allows the person to pay £2000 in National Insurance rather than £6000. They can also pay themselves just below the threshold for the top rate of income tax but then pay themselves dividends the first £5000 of which were tax free with subsequent dividends being taxed at like 10% rather than like 40%.

Chancellor Hammond has removed the Class 2 National Insurance bracket for self-employed workers entirely forcing them into Class 4. The tax rate in that Class 4 category bracket has been raised from 9% to 10%. The amount of tax free dividends has been reduced from £5000 to £2000.

This seems to be a significant slap in the face to the government of Prime Minister Cameron and Chancellor Osborne. Along with Work & Pensions Secretary Ian Duncan Smith they spent years running this nasty little scam where they tricked the unemployed into reclassifying themselves as self-employed in the so-called "Gig Economy" with companies like Deliveroo or Uber.

These newly self-employed people don't earn anything like a living wage and often earn less than they'd be paid in unemployment benefits. However it gets them off the unemployment statistics and off the welfare bill. That's all Osborne and Duncan Smith cared about.

Due to their extremely low earnings it is highly unlikely that these people will be able to pay 10% National Insurance. Forcing them to reclassify themselves back as unemployed. Thus totally reversing Osborne and Duncan Smith's nasty little scam.

In announcing these changes Chancellor Hammond pretty much pointed at George Osborne on the back benches and laughed. While Ian Duncan Smith seethed quietly on the sidelines.

Chancellor Hammond also introduced a new class of technical qualifications called; "T-levels." So overall I would say that his plan for a post-Brexit British economy is a low corporate tax economy full of highly qualified but unemployed people. High unemployment drives down wages.

However it must be said that even by the standards of a budget this was hardly a thriller.

20:30 on 8/3/17 (UK date).

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