Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 1, Day 3.

In the summer of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat.

Despite intense international condemnation the Syrians had managed to restrict them to an area in the Euphrates River basin.


So in the winter of 2013 ISIL almost completely abandoned fighting in Syria and invaded Iraq's south-western Anbar Province instead. In the summer of 2014 ISIL invaded Iraq's north-western Nineveh plains region including the city of Mosul. That city went on to become ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.

As they captured Mosul ISIL also seized the predominately Kurdish Yezidi town of Sinjar/Shingal some 500km (300 miles) to the west.

Considering followers of the Yezidi religion to be devil worshippers ISIL immediately massacred 5,000 of Shingal's men and boys. They kidnapped a similar number of the town's women and girls to use as sex slaves. ISIL then forced Sinjar's remaining 60,000 residents up Mount Sinjar/Shingal to die of starvation and thirst.

This act finally shamed former US President Barack Obama into action. The US-led anti-ISIL coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) was established.

Despite a new coalition being formed with its fancy name and shiny logo initially  CJTFOIR's main objective seemed to be to protect ISIL at all costs.

For example in March and April of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the associated Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) conducted an operation to liberate the city of Tikrit from. Under Obama CJTFOIR was forbidden from participating in this operation.

However it is not possible for a coalition of some of the World's most powerful air forces to spend three years bombing ISIL without it having some effect. So ISIL are currently in very bad shape.

The last time that ISIL were able to launch a successful offensive operation was all the way back in May 2015 when they captured all of the Iraqi city of Ramadi. However since then the Iraqis have successfully liberated Ramadi from ISIL along with the near-by city of Fallujah. They are currently well on their way to liberating Mosul from the group too.

Within Syria ISIL are also on the brink of defeat.

By January 2015 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had repelled a sustained onslaught on the city of Kobane. Since then they have formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition and expanded the area north of the Euphrates River - designated; "Shangri-La" - to in excess of 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).

This restricts ISIL to just the area along the banks of the river - predominately the city of Raqqa and part of the city of Deir-ez-Zour. The SDF are also in control of a smaller area in the west of Syria centred around the city of Afrin which is designated as; "The Afrin Canton."

Over the night of Tuesday (21/3/17) into Wednesday (22/3/17) CJTFOIR helicoptered members of the SDF to the southern bank of the Euphrates. This is the start of an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the near-by Tabqa Dam from ISIL. Damning the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad this sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa and represents ISIL's main crossing point across the Euphrates from Raqqa to the rest of Syria.

Recent heavy rain/snow fall coupled with ISIL's mis-management of the dam has meant that the waters in Lake Assad have rising dramatically in recent months. This creates a very real risk that the SDF controlled areas upstream of the dam will flood or that the dam will burst explosively flooding the areas downstream. As a result everyone will feel much more relaxed once the dam is under the control of people who know what they are doing.

However the dramatic Tabqa Dam operation was launched as the global coalition on ISIL - which is much wider than CJTFOIR - was meeting in Washington D.C, US. This was the first such meeting under current US President Donald Trump. Therefore the operation which included never before seen levels of US support was timed to promote discussion about any future operation to liberate Raqqa.

That discussion is not now about whether Raqqa can be liberated from ISIL but when and how it will be best to liberate Raqqa.

The original plan to liberate Raqqa was dreamt up by former President Obama almost as an afterthought to his plan to liberate Mosul. Within that operation the Iraqis continue to make steady progress. However it is impossible for anyone involved to deny that we are being forced to make the best of a bad situation in the face of Obama's complete lack of planning.

Former President Obama's only consideration in planning the Mosul operation was to engineer a big flag waving, chest beating victory against ISIL. This was supposed to propel his designated successor - Hillary Clinton - to victory in the November 2016 US Presidential Election.

As a result I could probably write a book about all the things that are wrong with the planning of the Mosul operation. However the element that particularly concerns me at the moment is the impact on Mosul's civilian population.

In planning for the Mosul operation what the Iraqi's and CJTFOIR should have done is copy what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City. That is establish humanitarian corridors to allow the civilians to escape to Internally Displaces Peoples (IDP) camps. Then once the fighting had ended and the city liberated those civilians could return to their homes in safety.

However the US in particular could not bring itself to acknowledge that what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City was entirely correct.

So instead they dreamt up this harebrained scheme that would see Mosul's civilians remain within the city while the fighting raged around them. The belief seemed to be that they would somehow be immune to to the bullets and explosions going off around them because these are good honest American bullets rather than evil Russian ones.

Mosul's civilians are currently paying an extremely high price for that absolute foolishness.

Particularly as the operation has moved into the western side of Mosul there has been something of a shift in tactics towards opening humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from the city. Just today some 150 truckloads of civilians were brought out of the city for Hamman al-Alil. However due to the failure at the planning stage there aren't the IDP camps to house them. Building those IDP camps will take months.

Now the battle has begun it is impossible for us to stop and try again once the camps have been built. So all we can really do is press ahead to end the battle as soon as possible. No matter how harrowing the daily reports are.

With their election coming on April 23rd (23/4/17) France is pushing for the Raqqa operation to be launched immediately. For exactly the same reason that Obama rushed us into the Mosul operation. I assume the French are currently finding themselves in a minority of one within CJTFOIR.

ISIL's main ally in Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah coalition. This is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian branch The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).

The other significant members of the Army of Conquest are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA). It also includes some fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) that have the misfortune of being in areas under Army of Conquest occupation.

As with ISIL the Army of Conquest are currently in extremely bad shape within Syria.

They continue to be protected by the Turkish military in the area between Shangri-La and Afrin Canton which has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."

However they were defeated in Aleppo City back in December 2015. They continue to be defeated across Syria - most recent being forced to cede control of areas around the city of Hama. This has left the Army of Conquest seeking refuge in an area south of Afrin Canton around Idlib City.  This has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the form of the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria. The Geneva Process has never been about bringing peace to Syria. Instead its purpose has always been to protect ISIL and the Army of Conquest and empower them to overthrow the Syrian government.

Since December 2016 the Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Astana Process. The most recent meetings in the Astana Process were held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17). These were dominated by the Astana Ceasefire.

In the run-up to the latest Astana meetings the Army of Conquest unleashed a campaign of the most extreme violence it could muster. This included large suicide bombings in Homs City on February 25th (25/2/17) and Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). They also launched a short-lived conventional military assault on Damascus on March 19th (19/3/17).

These attacks were all carried out by the Army of Conquest in an effort to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians into extending the Astana Ceasefire to include them. This is a step the Army of Conquest desperately need in order to survive.

In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Astana Ceasefire - but not the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism - has been adopted by the Geneva Process. As a consequence this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process which began on Thursday (23/3/17) have been accompanied by another violent rampage by the Army of Conquest.

On Wednesday (22/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault focused on the city of Hama. This is intended to recover the ground they only recently lost. This offensive is on going and therefore not something I am happy commenting on in too much detail. However it is only today (24/3/17) that the Syrians and the Russians have felt the need to attempt to repel it.

Also today (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an ambush by Islamist terrorists in the Chechnya region of Russia. Following the assassination of Russia's Ambassador to Turkey on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) I suggested that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan would do well to learn the name of Ramzan Kadyrov - Head of the Chechen Republic.

To aid Erdogan in this task Russian promptly dispatched the Chechen National Guard to act as military police within the newly liberated Aleppo City. Someone is clearly not happy about that.

Yesterday (23/3/17) in Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) a massive fire engulfed the nation's largest weapons depot. The former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was killed in Kiev. Under Obama the western reflex to either of these events would be to blame Russia and impose more sanctions.

The Army of Conquest's latest rampage was not limited to Syria and Russia. It also included the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) with a combined run-over and stabbing attack in and around the Parliament building in London city on Wednesday (22/3/17).

Recently there have been a number of indications that the UK is no longer as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was. For example I am significantly less dead then certain people would like.

In late December 2016 I visited my mothers in an area of the UK which is some distance from my home. This prompted the UK Queen to indicate that in the event of an extreme crisis the UK military would be tasked with bringing me home.

That is simply because I have valuable contacts with Russia, Iran and Syria that the UK simply does not have. However it was enough to make certain people suspicious. Those people don't think Russians, Iranians and Syrians have a right to exist let alone have their views considered.

Then of course there is the killing of the UK MP Jo Cox on June 16th 2016 (16/6/16).

As chair of the Parliamentary Syria group Jo Cox was a energetic supporter of the Army of Conquest - particularly their White Helmets division. Therefore her death should have prompted a counter terrorism investigation into her behaviour. This may well have resulted in her death being ruled a lawful killing and her killer only being punished for firearms offences rather than murder.

However Jo Cox's Labour Party and her deeply unpleasant husband Brendan Cox attempted to obstruct the counter-terrorism investigation. Yorkshire Counter-Terrorism unit bowed to this political pressure and the whole thing unravelled. This is a longstanding and persistent problem with UK counter-terrorism efforts. Particularly where the Labour Party are concerned.

Those are just two examples that I feel comfortable discussing at the moment.

That Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack took place outside the Parliament building obviously invoked memories of Jo Cox's killing. Brendan Cox has even crawled out from under his rock to spew his usual hateful lies.

In fact the lockdown of the Parliament building lasted for several hours longer than it needed to. That's because eyewitnesses of a certain political persuasion simply invented a second white attacker whom the police were then forced to search for.

Those eyewitness did this simply because they desperately wanted the attacker to be a white person rather than face the truth that there is an Islamist terror threat that Jo Cox helped nurture and feed. I sincerely hope that every one of them is prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

The attacker has since been identified as 53 year old convert to Islam who at the time was going by the name of Khalid Masood. He is part of that generation of British Muslims who wee radicalised by Al Qaeda in the wake of the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Khalid Masood's birthname was Adrian Ajao. Although I've not had it confirmed that name is West African in origin. Most likely Nigerian. Nigeria of course has suffered extensively at the hands of Islamist terrorists. Most notably Boko Haram who grew out of the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA).

Former US President Obama's response to the rise of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria and West Africa was to rig the 2015 Nigerian election to install the Muslim Muhammadu Buhari as President. After all in Obama's childlike mind this recent global outbreak of Islamist terror is just peaceful Muslims chafing against their white devil oppressors.

President Buhari has been unwell of late spending two months in the UK for medical treatment. During this absence - and particularly recent events in the Gambia - the UK has certainly indicated that it intends to stand with this member of the UK Commonwealth against the scourge of Islamist terror.

Amongst the, I think now, 10 people arrested following Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack has been Adrian Ajao's mother. She was arrested at her home in Wales. Specifically the bit of Wales that my infamous grandmother was from. This is the same bit of Wales where the Richard Osman who died aboard Egypt Air flight MS804 was living at the time of his murder.

Although it seems a complete coincidence I feel the need to point out that my grandmother's husband - my grandfather - was part of Lord Mountbatten's close protection detail. However not at the time he was assassinated by Martin McGuinness' Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA).

Prior to carrying out the attack Ajao travelled from his home in the city of Birmingham to spend a single night at the Preston Park hotel in the city of Brighton. I used to live in Brighton and during - shall we say my more gypsy days - I used to live actually in Preston Park. Amongst other parks.

Preston Park is also where Brighton - the UK's gay capital - holds it's annual Gay Pride festival. So all those who rally behind the likes of Jo Cox to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" at Russia seem to have been shown exactly what the people they're cheering for think of them.

There has also been an attempted stabbing attack at Orly Airport in France on Saturday (18/3/17) and an attempted run-over attack in Antwerp, Belgium yesterday (24/3/17). Rather than being directed these appear to be an inspired and a copycat attack respectively. Much to my annoyance I will have to address those tomorrow.

Tonight the UK sees the Comic Relief telethon. This was born out of the Live Aid movement established in response to the 1984 Ethiopian famine. With Africa's Sahel Belt from Nigeria to Somalia once again in the grip of famine it would be tempting to think that the last 33 years of effort has been a failure. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Although I don't have the exact figures in front of me even since the year 2000 the number of malnourished people in the World has halved. Of the people still malnourished the extent to which they are malnourished has been reduced by about 80%.

The famine we are currently seeing emerge across Africa and Yemen are entirely man-made. It is driven by Islamist terrorism and its purpose is to destabilise the nations in order to make them dependent on foreign aid.

When I got involved in the Live Aid movement in the early 2000's we referred to this as; Neo-Colonialism.

17:45 on 24/3/17 (UK date).