On Sunday February 19th (19/2/17) an operation was launched to liberate the western side of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Mosul has acted as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq since the summer of 2014.
This represents the latest phase in an operation to liberate all of Mosul that began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern half of Mosul from ISIL.
The operation is being supported by the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias and the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). However as with the liberation of eastern Mosul the liberation of western Mosul is being led by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
On Thursday February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF launched a complex manoeuvre to simultaneously liberate Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base. These sit side-by-side at the southern most tip of western Mosul. At the same time the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This sits directly north-west of the Ghazlani military base.
By Friday February 24th (24/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating both the airport and the military base. From the airport the ISF managed to push on into the Hay al-Tayaran neighbourhood which sits directly north of the airport. The ISF also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and push on into the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood which sits directly north-east to the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood and north-west of the military base.
On Sunday February 26th (26/2/17) the ISF had succeeded in fully liberating both the Hal al-Tayaran and Hal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. This placed the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood which sits between the al-Tayaran and al-Rayyan neighbourhoods directly north of the Ghazlani base under siege. The ISF also pushed eastwards from the al-Tayaran neighbourhood towards the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood. This sits directly on the banks of the Tigris River.
By Monday February 27th (27/2/17) the ISF had advanced far enough into the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood to secure control of the western entrance to Mosul's so-called "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris. With the eastern entrance to the Fourth Bridge being secured by the ISF back on January 9th (9/1/17) this gives the ISF full control over one of five bridges dividing east and west Mosul. The ISF are already in control of the eastern entrances to the other four bridges although have been disabled by CJTFOIR airstrikes.
Also on Monday (27/2/17) the ISF began the process of liberating the Wadi al-Hajar neighbourhood. This was completed yesterday (28/2/17) as was the ISF fully liberating the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
As a result of these gains just 7 days after launching their operation into western Mosul proper the ISF now control everything south of the Fourth Bridge to the al-Sawas roundabout road. On top of Mosul International Airport, the Ghazlani military base and those four neighbourhoods the ISF also control the three neighbourhoods that run south-west of the al-Sawas roundabout.
To the west of Mosul the PMF have continued to tighten the noose on the city from the Ayn Nasr - Tal Afar Airport line they established on November 16th 2016 (16/11/17). Assisted by the ISF's 9th Army Division yesterday the succeeded in liberating the village of Khubirat Atshana which sits around 4km (2.5 miles) south of the town of Badush.
The town of Badush itself sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul just north of the H1 Highway to Tal Afar and then Syria and just south of the Tigris River. Today (1/3/17) the PMF and the ISF succeeded in taking control of the H1 Highway south of Badush cutting off ISIL's last formal route between Mosul and Tal Afar. The ISF have since launched an operation to liberate Badush prison which sits just north of the road and just south of the town.
The main area for concern in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remains the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria.
This area of Syria's northern border with Turkey stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. On either side it is bordered by the CJTFOIR-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the west the SDF have established a de facto safe-haven known as the Afrin Canton whilst to the east the SDF have established a much larger de facto safe-haven known as Shangri-La.
On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF from linking Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in the process.
Since November 2016 the focus of Erdogan's operations within the Garvaghy Road area has been the town of al-Bab. This sits around 40km (24 miles) south of the Turkish border, 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 50km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij - the SDF's most advanced position just inside Garvaghy Road.
Last Friday (24/2/17) Erdogan's forces captured al-Bab. We are now waiting to see whether Erdogan's forces will withdraw from Syria, advance south along the M4 Motorway to formally join forces with ISIL in their de facto capital Raqqa or attack the SDF in Manbij.
Over the weekend it has started to seem less likely that Erdogan will withdraw his forces as he has made a series of increasingly aggressive moves. On Sunday (26/2/17) a train carrying 22 Turkish military vehicles and troops to crew them made its was to the Turkish city of Gaziantep which is where Erdogan's operations in Garvaghy Road are staged from.
Also on Sunday (26/2/17) Erdogan's allies ISIL launched a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a convoy of US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) who are embedded with the SDF. The attack occurred around 35km (20 miles) south of the city of Kobani where US SOF's have one of their main operations bases. Fortunately no US troops were killed on injured in the attack.
Between Erdogan's forces in al-Bab and their ISIL allies in Raqqa to the south you have Syrian forces. Due to the proximity between the Syrian forces and Erdogan's invasion force in early February Russia brokered a security line of demarcation between the two sides. Russia had to enforce this security line on February 9th (9/2/17) by conducting airstrikes against Erdogan's forces when they violated the line.
On Sunday (26/2/17) those Syrian forces liberated the village of Tedef from ISIL. Tedef sits around 1km (0.6 miles) south of al-Bab and controls the M4 junction between al-Bab and Raqqa.
On Monday (27/2/17) Erdogan's forces again violated the security line attacking Syria forces at Tedef killing 22. This is the most serious example of direct combat between Syria as a nation state and Turkey as an invading state so far in this six year war.
Perhaps chastened by a February 20th (20/2/17) Turkish airstrike that killed four Russian soldiers near the Syrian city of Homs Russia does not yet appear to have punished Erdogan for Monday's aggression.
Despite Russia's apparent lack of a response Erdogan changed his tune yesterday (28/2/17). Before boarding a flight to Pakistan Erdogan declared that his forces will be attacking the SDF and the US SOF's embedded with them at Manbij.
This prompted US Central Command (CENTCOM) to Tweet out pictures of female SDF fighters alongside captions such as; "Ready For Battle."
This war of words does not seem to have deterred Erdogan any. Today Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton de facto safe-haven.
Erdogan's attacks against Tal Rifat have been followed up this afternoon with more airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij. Those Erdogan ordered airstrikes appear to have been coordinated in support of ISIL group operation against the town. As I write the SDF are in the process of fighting them off.
While the fighting continues we are awaiting a response from CJTFOIR - the US-led coalition.
17:50 on 1/3/17 (UK date).
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