Writing in an Italian newspaper on Sunday (5/3/17) the President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani declared that the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) would be a momentous event.
Not only would it cause Iraq's Kurdish Region to break away from Iraq it would also be the trigger for Syria's Kurdish regions to break away from Syria and the two regions would combine to form the independent nation of Kurdistan. Syria itself would break apart and in its place would rise a Greater Israel and a Greater Jordan to stand alongside this Greater Kurdistan.
It seems we won't have long until we find out whether President Barzani's prediction is accurate. An operation is already well under way to liberate Mosul.
Intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) this operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) it had succeeded in liberating all of the eastern side of Mosul.
On February 19th (19/2/17) the next phase of the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul was launched. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered the western side of the city itself.
By last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF had succeeded in liberating everything south of the Fourth Bridge road to the al-Sawas roundabout. This included the Fourth Bridge itself along with Mosul International Airport and the Ghazlani military base and the four neighbourhoods between the Airport/Ghazlani base and the road. Directly to the north-west of the Ghazlani base the ISF had also succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan and Hay al-Mamum neighbourhoods.
Last Wednesday (1/3/17) the ISF and the PMF also conducted an operation to liberate the town of Badush including Badush prison which was being used by ISIL. Badush sits around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul along the M1 Motorway running from Mosul to the town of Tal Afar and then into Syria.
The following day (2/3/17) the entire area around Mosul was hit by extremely bad weather. I heard some British soldiers stationed there complaining that they wanted to be sent back to Wales where it was warm and dry. Due to this bad weather all operations were put on hold temporarily.
By Sunday (5/3/17) the weather had cleared and operations resumed.
The ISF crossed the Fourth Bridge road into the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood which the road cuts through. The ISF also entered the al-Dawasa neighbour which sits directly east of the northern half of the al-Dindan neighbourhood and directly north of the al-Jawsaq neighbourhood.
To the south-west the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This sits directly adjacent to the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood and both are separated from the Hay al-Mansur neighbourhood by the Mosul - Baghdad road.
By Monday (6/3/17) the ISF had liberated both the al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods. This included securing the western bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge. With the eastern bridgehead of the Hurriyah Bridge being secured back in January this now gives the ISF full control of the two most southern bridges linking east and west Mosul.
Overnight the ISF launched a rarely used night operation. This saw them storm the complex of government buildings that sit between the al-Dawasa neighbourhood and Mosul's Old City neighbourhood.
Seeming to catch ISIL completely by surprise within just 8 hours the ISF had succeeded in liberating these government buildings including the Governor's residence, the former Turkish Embassy, the central bank building that ISIL and been using as a court and Mosul's museum where ISIL filmed themselves destroying ancient artifacts back in February 2015.
In carrying out this nighttime raid and liberating these buildings the ISF appear to have broken through one of ISIL's inner defensive lines within western Mosul. Although I don't yet want to get into the reasons why this could well be an extremely significant development in the battle for the city.
Also today the ISF have succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This places the Hay al-Mansur neighbhourhood effectively under siege on three sides.
To the north-west of the city the ISF and the PMF have resumed their operation to liberate the town of Badush. The latest reports are that they have succeeded in opening up three access routes into the town itself.
Apart from the Mosul operation ISIL are also coming under increased pressure in Syria.
Yesterday (6/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) completed the third and hopefully final phase of their operation in the area north of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. The SDF have secured control of the Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road that runs north of the Euphrates River.
On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrian city of Palmyra was liberated by Russian backed Syrian forces. This marked the completion of a week long operation.
Sadly due to the constraints of time I will have to cover those two developments in more detail at a later date.
18:30 on 7/3/17 (UK date).
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