Over the night of last Tuesday (21/3/17) into last Wednesday (22/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) launched an operation to liberate both the Syrian town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Damming the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad the Tabqa Dam stands around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. The town of Tabqa sits around 500 metres/yards from the dam on the southern side of the Euphrates.
The first phase of this operation saw the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - helicopter the SDF along with US Marines over the Euphrates to positions just south of Tabqa. This is the first time that CJTFOIR have airdropped the SDF and the first time that the SDF have ever conducted this type of airborne assault.
This first objective of the SDF was to fight their way east from their landing site around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa to Tabqa airfield liberating a number of small villages en route. Tabqa airfield stands around 7km (4 miles) south of Tabqa itself. The SDF entered Tabqa airfield on Friday (24/3/17) and fully liberated it yesterday (27/3/17). They are currently in the process of repelling an ISIL counter attack before advancing on Tabqa itself.
Back in November 2016 the SDF launched operation; "Wrath of Euphrates." Although I assume that has now been reconsidered the original objective of the operation was to isolate and then liberate Raqqa. The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance down the eastern bank of the Euphrates from the Tishrin Dam some 120km (70 miles) north of Tabqa.
That second phase ended on January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) with the SDF liberating Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). This sits on a peninsula on the northern side of Lake Assad - some 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa and some 10km (6 miles) west of Tabqa Dam.
In conjunction with the element advancing on the town of Tabqa from the south the SDF have also been advancing on Tabqa Dam to the north from Qalat Jabar. On Friday (24/3/17) this northern element entered the dam complex. On Sunday (26/3/17) they secured partial control of the dam itself.
This prompted ISIL to issue a warning through loudspeakers to civilians in Raqqa warning them the CJTFOIR airstrikes were about to breach the dam and instructing them to evacuate Raqqa to avoid the impending flood waters. Later in the day ISIL issued a contradictory message to Raqqa's civilian population instructing them to stay within the city.
With there being no suggestion that Tabqa Dam was about to be breached this was simply propaganda on the part of ISIL. They were attempting to scare Raqqa's civilians into supporting them by claiming that CJTFOIR was trying to slaughter Muslims by breaching the dam and only ISIL could protect them. However they then realised that when the dam didn't breach Raqqa's civilians would see that they were lying.
Yesterday (27/3/17) the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) were able to negotiate a four hour ceasefire between ISIL and the SDF within the Tabqa Dam complex. This allowed engineers to inspect the dam and confirm that it is structurally sound and there is no imminent risk of it collapsing.
Within Iraq ISIL are also on the brink of losing their de facto capital in that country - Mosul.
The operation to liberate Mosul was intended as combined one. It would see the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) working together with the ISF taking the lead. It is supported by CJTFOIR.
The operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 24th 2017 (24/3/17) the eastern side of Mosul had been liberated. On February 19th (19/2/17) the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul began.
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul on two axis. The Federal Police element of the ISF entered from the Mosul Airport/Ghazlani Military Base complex at the very south of the city. The Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) entered from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-west of the city.
As of March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element has entered Mosul's Old City district on two axis. One of these was from the Corniche of the banks of the Tigris River pushing west along Nineveh Street. The second of these was from the al-Tob neighbourhood pushing north along al-Shaziani Street. The idea being that the two axis would converge on the symbolically important Nuri Mosque just north of the junction between the two streets.
The Golden Division has succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods of Risala and Nablus. These are the two most eastern neighbourhoods of the Hay al-Yarmuk district which sits directly north of the New Mosul district.
On Saturday (25/3/17) a short operational pause was declared in the Mosul operation. This has widely been reported as being in response to concerns about increasing casualties amongst Mosul's civilian population.
What's actually happened is that ISIL have not been able to mount as strong a defence of western Mosul as had been expected. As a result various units of the ISF have been able to advance much further than planned. This puts them out of position relative to each other requiring a short pause in order to get everybody to where they're meant to be.
The operational pause only really applied to the Federal Police element of the ISF operating within the Old City district.
So on Saturday (25/3/17) through to Sunday (26/3/17) the Golden Division element were able to liberate the Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi al-Ain neighbourhoods. These sit directly south of the Risala neighbourhood. The Golden Division were also able to liberate the Industrial Area and the Orouba neighbourhood which sit directly north of the Risala neighbourhood.
Operations within the Old City resumed yesterday (27/3/17). As expected progress within this area has been extremely slow. However it has continued with the Federal Police advancing around 600 metres/yards forward towards the Nuri Mosque on both the southern and eastern axis.
Although it was called for wider tactical reasons the operational pause has provided an opportunity to discuss the issue of civilian casualties.
On Saturday (26/3/17) a natural gas explosion occurred in a residential neighbourhood of the Wirral in the north-west of England, UK. This completely destroyed several buildings in the centre of a town square and badly damaged the buildings overlooking the square. It fits in with a pattern of similar incidents that have occurred across the globe including as far away as Inner Mongolia in China.
So the issue of civilian casualties in Mosul is certainly one that is being discussed at the highest levels.
However if the people having these discussions were able to have them openly they would simply issue written statements. That is certainly easier than causing hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage and scaring the crap out of their own citizens.
Therefore I can't really expand much on the nature of the discussions beyond assuring people that the issue is certainly not being ignored and people are working to try and find a solution.
How difficult it is to find a solution is illustrated by one particular incident that is currently under investigation by CJTFOIR which happened in the al-Jadida neighbour just west of the Old City on March 17th (17/3/17).
At around 17:20 (GMT) on 28/3/17 (UK date) I will pick this up later.
Edited at around 18:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date) to add:
Throughout this war ISIL most favoured tactic has been the use of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). These are driven by a suicide bombing at groups of opposing troops and then detonated in order to kill as many of them as possible and break through their lines.
The term; "VBIED" refers to any vehicle carrying or bearing an improvised explosive device. This can range from anything as small as a motor scooter all the way up all the way up to 7.5 Tonne trucks.
Last Tuesday (21/3/17) the UK marked the death of Martin McGuiness. He was long associated with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). One of their most famous attacks on the British mainland was the April 24th 1993 (24/4/93) Bishopgate's bombing.
Although not a suicide attack this involved placing a VBIED at the junction of the A10 Bishopsgate Road and Wormwood Street close to Liverpool Street railway station. When the bomb exploded it destroyed buildings across 1kmsq (0.6milesq) from Liverpool Street station in the north to Threadneedle Street - home of the Bank of England - in the south.
Another very famous PIRA attack on London was the February 9th 1996 (9/2/96) Docklands bombing. Again although not a suicide attack this saw a VBIED placed outside South Quay Docklands Light Railway station. When the bomb exploded it created a crater 10 metres/yards wide and 3 metres/yards deep. It completely destroyed three high-rise buildings nearby - the Midland Bank Building and South Quay Towers I & II.
On April 19th 1995 (19/4/95) Timothy McVeigh of no formal political affiliation parked a VBIED outside the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US. Again this wasn't a suicide attack but when the bomb exploded it almost completely destroyed the 9 storey Murrah building along with destroying other buildings across a 3.2kmsq (1.9 milesq) area.
So when we talk about VBIED's we are talking about potentially extremely large bombs. All of the three examples I've listed here exploded with the equivalent power of around 1.3 Tonnes of TNT. That is around five times the power of the 230kg (500lb) Paveway bombs that CJTFOIR and the Iraqi Air Force typically use against ISIL.
What appears to have happened on March 17th (17/3/17) in al-Jadida is that ISIL were using one of these very large VBIED's to attack a Golden Division position. The Golden Division commander on the ground requested that CJTFOIR carry out an airstrike to stop this VBIED reaching its target.
CJTFOIR fulfilled this request most likely with a Hellfire missile fired from a drone. The Hellfire missile is much smaller than the Paveway bomb exploding with the equivalent power of just 9kg (20lbs).
So being a highly targeted weapon the Hellfire missile likely destroyed the VBIED without causing much damage to the surrounding area. However in the process the missile set-off the VBIED destroying the surrounding buildings and killing and estimated 130 civilians.
The consequence of CJTFOIR not carrying out the airstrike is that the VBIED would have been detonated by ISIL a little further down the street. This would have meant that all the buildings that were destroyed would still have been destroyed and all the people killed would still have been killed. The only difference is that a large number of the Golden Division would also have been killed.
Obviously the lives of ISF soldiers are not more important than the lives of Mosul's civilians.
However the brutal fact is that if ISIL kill all of the ISF's soldiers before the ISF are able to kill all of ISIL fighters then that means ISIL have won.
19:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date).
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