On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
This was supposed to be a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. It was to be backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
Mosul is a city of around 1.8 million people. Since their invasion in the summer of 2014 it has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq. It is also where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.
As such the liberation of Mosul will be a huge step both practically and symbolically in defeating ISIL. However in preparation for the Mosul operation - which was launched just before the November 2016 US Presidential Election - the liberation of Mosul was presented as some sort of silver bullet that would mean the immediate defeat of ISIL and an end to the region's security problems.
This is simply not the case. Iraq's security problems will not end until ISIL has been totally defeated both in Iraq and Syria. They certainly won't end until ISIL has been defeated in all the other areas it currently holds within Iraq. The most significant of these is an area known as the Hawija Triangle. Located around 180km (110 miles) south-east of Mosul.
Centred around the town of Hawija this triangle is bordered on three sides by Kirkuk, Baiji and Tikrit. It was created in the summer of 2015 when the ISF and the PMF liberated Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. An operation that CJTFOIR under former US President Barack Obama refused to participate in.
The problem with liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL has been the ongoing tension between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the Iraqi government. Although a mixed city Kirkuk sits just beyond the boundary of the Kurdistan Region. However in response to ISIL's invasion the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga moved into secure the city.
As a result the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) refuse to work with each other to liberate the Hawija Triangle. The Iraqi government are legitimately concerned that the KRG will use such an operation as a land grab to seize more Iraqi territory. The KRG are concerned that the operation will remove the security threat resulting in the Peshmerga having to return Kirkuk to Iraqi control.
Amid this standoff KRG President Masoud Barzani has become completely overcome by greed. He seems to have got it into his head that if he can sell oil from the Kirkuk fields to Turkey this will enable him to declare the Iraqi Kurdistan Region to be an independent state without the consent of the Iraqi government.
In pursuit of this frankly bonkers pipedream Barzani has repeatedly made a fool of both himself and the Iraqi Kurdish people.
Back in December 2015 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan deployed roughly a battalion of Turkish troops to a camp in Bashiqa which is just outside Mosul. This was done without the permission of either the Iraqi government or the KRG.
This small scale Turkish invasion of northern Iraq was done to test the water for a full Turkish invasion and annexation of the Kurdish areas of Syria that was scheduled for December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). It was only after intense international pressure that Erdogan was forced to abandon his invasion plans.
On October 4th 2016 (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution demanding that Erdogan's troops vacate the Bashiqa camp and end their illegal occupation of Iraq. Having Barzani popped up to defend Erdogan demanding that his troops stay in Bashiqa. Something that wildly exceeded Bazarni's authority not least because like Mosul Bashiqa is not within the Kurdish Region.
Then there was the Mosul operation itself. The only strategic concern behind launching this operation in October 2016 was to get it under way in time for the US Presidential Election. This was completely the wrong time to launch this operation.
One of the big concerns we currently have for residents still trapped in western Mosul is the lack of heating fuel. This would simply not be an issue if the operation was being conducted from spring into summer rather than from autumn into winter.
The Mosul operation was begun on the night of Saturday October 15th 2016 (15/10/16) when Erdogan's troops in the Bashiqa camp started firing artillery into Mosul. On Sunday October 16th (16/10/17) Barzani again popped up in support of Erdogan and declared the operation to be under way. This forced Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announced the start of the operation on Monday October 17th (17/10/16).
Prior to that point Abadi along with all non-US members of CJTFOIR were calling for the operation to be delayed until the spring when it would have stood a greater chance of success. It was due almost entirely to Barzani's actions that this international effort failed and the Mosul operation was launched. We've been trying to make the best of a bad situation ever since.
While Erdogan's plan to invade Syria's Kurdish regions on December 16th 2015 (16/10/15) were thwarted they were not halted entirely. On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan sent forces to invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of northern Syria. Since then there has been a huge international effort to stop Erdogan attacking the predominately Kurdish Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) both in the adjoining Shangri-La and Afrin Canton areas.
Curiously for a Kurd Barzani has chosen not to stand with this international effort. Instead he has chosen to stand with Erdogan. Barzani has even gone so far as to establish a group of Syrian Kurdish deserters in a force called; "The Roj Peshmerga." Bazarni has repeatedly threatened to send these deserters into Syria to fight the SDF at Erdogan's command.
As recently as last Sunday (26/2/17) Barzani made a trip to Turkey. There he enjoyed all the pomp and circumstance such as the red carpet and the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag that he thought befitted his ego as national leader.
Unfortunately in his ineptitude Barzani did not realise that is exactly what his host Erdogan wanted. In response to the flying of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional flag the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have reacted with their usual fury. This has given Erdogan all the excuse he's needed to launch an attack on the SDF at Manbij prompting the crisis we've seen all week.
This crisis only seems to have been resolved yesterday (2/3/17) with the SDF being forced to cede their positions around the town of Arima to Syrian forces. The thinking being that those Syrian forces will act as a buffer preventing Erdogan launching further attacks on Syria's Kurds.
So to answer the question posed today by Barzani's adviser Hemin Harwani the SDF have been forced to give up their positions around Arima because Barzani is completely fucking incompetent.
It was yesterday (2/3/17) though that Barzani seemed to suffer a complete psychotic break;
In the morning Barzani sent Iraqi Peshmerga forces to seize the Kirkuk oil facility claiming it in the name of the Kurdish Region. This complete shutdown production from the entire Kirkuk oil field. With the Kurdistan Region's only oil pipeline running through Turkey this effectively claims a large part of Iraq's oil reserves in the name of Turkey.
Barzani wasn't finished there though. In the afternoon he deployed the Roj Peshmerga to Sinjar/Shingal which is outside of the Kurdish Region. Today the Roj Peshmerga have proceeded to battle the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS).
The origins of the YBS can be traced back to ISIL invasion of northern Iraq and the atrocity atop of Mount Sinjar that finally shocked the World into action. With the Iraqi Peshmerga being unwilling or unable to take action it fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to climb Mount Sinjar and rescue the Yezidi civilians trapped there. To prevent a repeat of the atrocity the YPG formed the YBS.
As he has made his increasingly dangerous and out of control moves it is clear that Barzani has given absolutely no thought to his end game.
Barzani's dream of breaking away from Iraq and establishing the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state depends entirely on Turkey agreeing to the creation of a Kurdish nation. There is absolute nothing in Turkey's 94 year history to suggest that is going to happen.
That idea has become even less likely with Erdogan controlling Turkey. Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. Ahead of the Mosul operation Turkey declared that Mosul, Kirkuk and Erbil along with the entire Iraqi Kurdish Region is part of that new Ottoman Empire.
Erdogan has already sent troops to annex Syria's Kurdish region as part of that new Empire and has his forces occupying northern Iraq and his aircraft bombing Iraq's Kurdish Region on a near daily basis.
So if Barzani were to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region as nation independent from Iraq everyone - except apparently Barzani - knows exactly what will happen;
The first step is that Turkey will cut off this new Kurdish nation's oil exports and withhold the outstanding revenues. This will leave Barzani unable to pay to defend his new nation.
Turkey will then invade and because Barzani has illegally declared a new nation within the borders of an existing nation nobody will be able to come his aid. Particularly not Turkey's NATO allies.
As for the Mosul operation it is obviously on hold now that Barzani seems to have ordered the Peshmerga to join forces with ISIL battling the Iraqis, the Yezidis and the Kurds.
So I think that not only does Barzani need to immediately withdraw his forces from both the Kirkuk oil company and from Sinjar he needs to immediately step aside.
At least until we can investigate whether he is actually in the pay of Erdogan's intelligence services.
16:20 on 3/3/17 (UK date).
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