The RA-85572 Black Sea Air Crash.

On December 25th (25/12/16) a Russian airforce Tupolev Tu-154B-2 - tail number RA-85572 - crashed over the Black Sea.

In the western Christian world December 25th every year is of course Christmas day - the second most important festival in the Christian calender and the biggest public holiday.

However in 1054 the Russian Orthodox Christian Church spilt away from the Roman Catholic Christian Church. Known as; "The East-West Schism" this occurred around 300 years before "The Western Schism" within the Romans Catholic Church and around 500 years before the Protestant Christian Church was invented and then spilt from the Catholic Church.

As they continue to use the Julian calender the Russian Orthodox Church doesn't celebrate Christmas until January 7th. It is also celebrated as the anniversary of the Norse King Vladimir the Great being baptised into the Russian Orthodox Church in 867 bringing Christianity to Kievan Rus' which is where the nation of Ukraine used to be.

So this crash was primarily intended as a big "F*ck You!" from Russia to the west.

It forced people to cancel their planned day off with their family to instead look for references to a nearly thousand year old theological argument over whether God or Jesus is the source of the Holy Spirit as re-told through the complexities of aviation engineering.

The crash then went on to list some of the hardships the west has put Russia through over Russia's long-term opposition to Islamist terror groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Al Qaeda-led, Turkish backed Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

For example the crash occurred over water after departing from Russia's Sochi airport.

This was a reference to the way Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared on March 8th 2014 (8/3/14) in an effort to disrupt the 2014 Winter Olympics being held at the time in Sochi.

Flight MH370 has still not been found and the cause of the disappearance still remains a mystery. This is due in no small part to both Malaysia Airlines and the nation of Malaysia itself repeatedly and systematically giving false and incorrect information about the aircraft's route.

The disappearance of MH370 was of course not the only pressure placed on Russia during the 2014 Sochi Olympics.

There was also the two Islamist terrorist bombings in the city of Volgograd in December 2013. Sochi is quite a small city so if you are visiting it from abroad you would fly into either Volgograd  or Moscow and then take an internal flight to Sochi. RA-85572 had itself originated in Moscow and had only stopped in Sochi to refuel before flying on to Latakia in Syria.

Then of course there was the frenzy of gay rights protests that accompanied the games.

Although it probably doesn't mean as much as it does in somewhere like the US or the UK Sochi is actually Russia's gay capital. The legacy element of awarding the games to Sochi was so that it could be used as an opportunity to tackle homophobia within Russian society. They even went so far as to make a range of deliberate mistakes in the construction of the athletes village in order to raise awareness of the endocrinological basis for homosexuality.

Unfortunately as the games arrived we discovered that many in the west just don't give a damn about furthering the cause of gay rights. Instead they just want any excuse to insult Russia and Russians.

The big pressure placed on Russia during the 2014 Sochi games though was events in Sochi's immediate neighbour on the Black Sea - Ukraine.

After the European Union (EU) had withdrawn its offer for Ukraine to seek membership the US backed Ultranationalists, neo-Nazis and some just actual WW2 Nazis to overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government.

Having overthrown the government these Fascists did what Fascists always do - they set about trying to cleanse the nation of its ethnically Russian minority. I'm sure all those commenting on the situation are experts in the history of Vladimir the Great.

This attempt at ethnic cleansing obviously caused a massive refugee crisis at the Russian border. Despite frequently asserting their commitment to the doctrine of "Responsibility to Protect" western nations led by the US did not call for a UN mission to protect the ethnic minority and restore Ukraine's government. Instead they took the bizarre step of imposing sanctions on Russia.

So on February 22nd (22/2/14) the nation sate of Ukraine ceased to exist. In it's place there now stands the Shamali or Northern Province of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). On March 16th 2014 (16/3/14) the people of Crimea rather sensibly voted to rejoin Russia. Much to the annoyance of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since the events of late 2013/early 2014 a brutal religiously and racially charged war has raged in Shamali Province as it has in all of ISIL's 'provinces'.

This civil war has seen the junta based in Kiev use modern fighter aircraft to bomb civilians in the east of their country. As is their right those civilians have used weapons mostly liberated from the Voldarsky facility to defend themselves. Despite the ferocity of this civil war the Kiev based junta did not see a need to stop civilian aircraft flying into the combat zone - including areas the junta itself was bombing from the sky.

Almost inevitably on July 17th 2014 (17/7/14) this led to Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 being shotdown over eastern Shamali Province. With the loss of 298 lives this was the worst disaster in Malaysia Airlines history since the disappearance of MH370 just four months earlier.

The international response to the crash of MH17 was as instant as it was hysterical.

Even before any attempt at an investigation had been launched it was blamed on Vladimir Putin personally and of course more sanctions were imposed against Russia. The Dutch civilians lost in the crash were unusually granted the military honour of flag draped coffins at their funerals. That would normally indicate that they had chosen to sacrifice their lives in the cause of the Netherlands' war against Russia.

US President Barack Obama even went so far to as to invite Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to holiday privately with his family in Hawaii over the Christmas of 2014. That "Thank You" seems to have come on top the USD1bn that mysteriously appeared in Razak's personal bank account in early 2015 as part of the 1 Malaysia Development Bank (1MDB) scandal.

On October 13th 2015 (13/10/15) the Dutch Transportation Safety Board published its final report into MH17. 

It found what we'd known all along - untrained civilian volunteers had accidentally shot down the aircraft thinking that it was another of the aircraft the junta had sent to bomb them. The main causes of the crash was the criminally negligent way the aircraft had been operated by Malaysia Airlines and the criminally negligent way the airspace had been operated by the junta.

The results of the Dutch investigation seem to have been completely disregarded as the US and Malaysia in particular continue to push for prosecutions of those responsible for the firing of the missile and only those people. Even if investigators do identify and capture not only the specific individual responsible for pressing the button and the specific individual responsible for giving the order they are still going to have to explain what is, in any way, illegal about using a weapon of war during a war.

The international response to the MH17 crash has been in sharp contrast to a number of other recent air crashes.

For example the October 4th 2001 (4/10/01) crash of Siberia Airlines flight 1812 en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia over the Black Sea some 190km (114 miles) south-west of Sochi. This Tupolev Tu-154M - tail number RA-85693 - was shot down by the Ukrainian airforce. After initially lying about the incident the then Ukrainian government finally admitted this in 2003.

Despite compensation payments being made to the victims no attempt has ever been made to prosecute anyone over that accidental shooting down.

The international response to the MH17 crash has also been in sharp contrast to the October 31st 2015 (31/10/15) crash of Metrojet flight 7K9268 over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. It is well established that this aircraft was blown out of the sky by a bomb killing 224 Russian civilians. ISIL claimed responsibility for the attack while the entire espionage world quietly coughed; "Erdogan."

In response to the bombing of 7K9268 there has been no international investigation, no talk of prosecution and certainly no sanctions. 

It's almost as if the western world seems to think that blowing civilian airliners out of the sky is perfectly acceptable behaviour. Providing it's Russian civilians being killed in ISIL's cause.    

At around 17:30 on 31/12/16 (UK date) I may - if I'm been really dull - pick this up after dinner. Tomorrow seems more likely though.

Edited at around 19:55 on 31/12/16 (UK date) to add;

Amongst the 92 killed in the RA-85572 were 64 members Alexandrov Ensemble Choir. Sometimes known as; "The Red Army Choir" this is an extremely famous Russian military choir. I think they performed at all of the Sochi Olympic ceremonies. However there inclusion here seems to be a reference to the Eurovision Song Contest.

At the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest Shamali Province took the unusual step of not representing themselves. Instead they chose to be represented by someone from the Crimea region of Russia.

An ethnic Turk Jamala's song; "1944" was a reference to Stalin's expulsion of ethnic Turks from what was then the Soviet Union in 1944. Obviously no mention was made of Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II the Conqueror's expulsion of ethnic Crimeans to make way for the ethnic Turks in 1475.

Shamali Province's 2016 Eurovision entry broke many of the Song Contest's rules. However it crucially broke the golden rule that entries may not contain overt political messages.

Obviously it's easy to see why the event organisers decided to waive their own rules on this occasion.

After all Shamali Province was one of the big political talking points that year. If they'd been asked to comply with the rules there is a good chance that Shamali Province would simply have refused to attend thus defeating the purpose of the exercise. However judging from the mood at the contest I got the impression we would be witnessing the first time in history an entry had ended up with a negative score.

While I think it naively came from a good place the decision to declare Shamali Province the winners of the 2016 contest and therefore hosts of the 2017 Song Contest was one of utter madness.

By holding the 2017 Song Contest in Shamali Province the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) is effectively demanding that Russia interferes in the country in order to provide security to the participants.

Although US President Obama will be a distant memory by then we know from MH17 that the Kiev junta will think nothing of attacking the Song Contest in the hope that it will be blamed on Russia. Even if the junta has no plans to attack the contest itself it is unlikely to be able to control the illegal neo-Nazi battalions such as the Azov Battalion and convicted war criminal Nadiya Savchenko's Aidar Battalion.

Then of course you have the out-and-out Islamist terrorism of Shamali Province's ethnic Turkish population. Taking their orders from Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the bombing of 7K928 and the November 2015 bombing of Crimea's power supply demonstrated they are both an unknown quantity and an extremely violent one.

Russia will have to manage all those threats to the Song Contest while many members of the EBU alongside the US are looking for any excuse to impose more sanctions on Russia for interfering in Shamali Province.

So if the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest does take place in Shamali Province and none of the participants are killed or injured I assume the EBU won't be asking Russia to pay membership dues until at least 2020.

The end of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest was marked by yet another air crash. This time the May 19th (19/5/16) crash of Egypt Air flight MS804 over the Mediterranean Sea en route from Paris, France to Cairo, Egypt with the loss of 66 civilian lives.

From what we know of the investigation MS804 suffered an explosion like event at the base of it's starboard side cockpit. This location is hemispherically opposite to where MH17 suffered an explosion like event at the top of it's port side cockpit.

At the 2016 Song Contest hemisphere's were often used to discuss transgenderism without breaking the no politics rule. After all hemispheres might be non-binary but gender certainly is. Belarus - as in the Minsk Protocol - were even more explicit in their criticism of Shamali Province with a song entitled; "Help You to Fly."

The other main talking point at the 2016 Song Contest was Europe's refugee/irregular migrant crisis. This is fed by two main routes; the Balkan route from Turkey and the Mediterranean route from north Africa. Prior to the Song Contest on May 1st (1/5/16)  British Airways flight BA108 from Dubai to London, UK had to be escorted by Swedish made military jets after straying into Hungary's airspace to highlight the Balkan route.

Aboard MS804 was a British victim by the name of Richard Osman. This of course was not the rather famous British quizshow presenter Richard Osman who gave Britain's scores at the Song Contest. Instead it was a Richard Osman from Wales. Specifically the exact same part of Wales as my notorious grandmother.

Due to Erdogan's famously thin skin Turkey did not participate in the 2016 Song Contest. As a result the downing of MS804 certainly bore all the hallmarks of Erdogan using Islamist terrorism to muscle his way into the conversation. While celebrating Shamali Province's success with yet another attack on Egypt. 

Of course we don't definitely know what happened to MS804. That's because unlike MH17 there has been no international outrage, no international investigation and certainly no talk of prosecution. In fact French investigators have actually come out and said that they won't be issuing a report into the crashing claiming it would be too difficult for them to do so.

On December 15th (15/12/16) - shortly before they released the bodies of the dead for burial - Egyptian investigators announced that they had found traces of explosives on some of the victims. That tallies with an unofficial statement by French investigators on September 16th (16/9/16) that they too had found traces of explosives.

I can certainly see why admitting that Turkish backed Islamist terrorists had managed to breach airside security at Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport is something France would find extremely embarrassing.

Another high profile life lost aboard RA-85572 was that of famous Russian humanitarian Yelizaveta Glinka M.D (AKA; "Dr Liza). In part this was a reference to the 6 leading figures in the fight against HIV/AIDS who were aboard MH17 en route to the 20th International AIDS conference in Melbourne, Australia.

However the death of Dr Liza was a reference to some very specific aspects of current military operations within Syria. Rather than trying to explain them here it would be better for me to explain them fully as part of my posts on that war. In fact the reason why I'm working on this on New Year's Eve is so I can get back to that as soon as possible.

That said on December 12th (12/12/16) Erdogan staged a bombing at the Besiktas Stadium on the European side of the Bosporus Strait in through Istanbul. That was intended as a threat to Russia that unless it drops is opposition to ISIL and the JAF Erdogan could close the Bosporus cutting off sea access from Russia's Black Sea ports to Syria's Mediterranean ports such as Latakia.

Obviously even with sea access cut off Russia could still supply Latakia via the air. However that would be very expensive and as this crash demonstrates possibly extremely dangerous. Particularly if Erdogan also activates Turkey's air defences.

Also Dr Lisa was said en route to help children in Tishreen in Syria's Latakia province. That is not to be confused with Tishrin Dam which is in Syria's Aleppo province. Depending on who you're talking to locations in Syria are given in either Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, English, Russian and sometimes French. As a result it can be quite easy to get confused.

Tishrin Dam is important because it is where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) crossed the Euphrates River into the area known as; "Garvaghy Road" in December 2015. In August 2016 Erdogan sent Turkish forces to formally invade and occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF cutting both ISIL and the JAF's supply lines to and from Turkey.

Over the course of the last weak Erdogan has been significantly increasing Turkish forces within Garvaghy Road. Officially this is being done to capture the town of al-Bab from ISIL. However from experience we know that these ISIL fighters will simply be absorbed into the ranks of the Turkish irregular forces which fight as part of the Army of Conquest.

The big concern is that following the capture of al-Bab Erdogan will turn his attentions to SDF positions in the town of Manbij. Around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab along the M4 Motorway Manbij is the town the SDF liberated from ISIL after liberating the Tishrin Dam and crossing the Euphrates.

Amongst the SDF's ranks at Manbij there are certainly US Special Operations Forces (SOF). There are also rumoured to be French and British SOF's located there. That is alongside the citizens of many western nations who fight as part of the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade. So a Turkish attack on Manbij would put it in direct combat against other members of the NATO coalition.

Up until yesterday (30/12/16) the US-led air coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - had been refusing to provide air support to Erdogan's invasion and occupation force. This has obviously slowed down their efforts to capture al-Bab.

On Thursday (29/12/16) Russia started providing air support to Erdogan's forces at al-Bab. This is the first time ever that Russia has provided combat support to the military of a NATO member. With NATO being set up specifically to fight Russians it is hard to overstate how significant that is. It would seem to be the first step in Erdogan withdrawing Turkey from NATO to pursue a military alliance with Russia.

That fear obviously played on CJTFOIR's mind. So yesterday (30/12/16) CJTFOIR started providing air support to Erdogan's forces at al-Bab. This seems to have been done specifically to prevent Russia from providing further air support. It remains what I think is termed a; "Dynamic" situation.

Attempting to play NATO and Russia off against each other has clearly been Erdogan's plan for quite some time.

As such it is hard to overstate how ridiculous, childish and detached from reality President Obama's decision to expel 35 Russian diplomats on Thursday (29/12/16). Hopefully over the remaining 20 days US Establishment will follow Putin's example and just ignore him.

At around 21:50 on 31/12/16 (UK date) I will now be picking this up tomorrow. Possibly in a seperate post.