Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 4, Day 3.

In my post of December 8th (8/12/16) I stated that between November 24th (24/11/16) and December 4th (4/12/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had not advanced in their efforts to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On December 4th (4/12/16) the ISF launched a renewed offensive to advance into neighbourhoods in south-eastern Mosul. As a result they have gone from having control over 21 neighbourhoods to either fighting over or controlling 27 neighbourhoods.

Further underlining how this Mosul operation has been rushed into due to the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election these advances have raised some complex questions to which answers now need to be found. Predominately these relate to the screening of civilians leaving Mosul to make sure they are not ISIL fighters and then what to do with any ISIL fighters that have been captured.

Legally all the Iraqis - or anyone else in a similar situation - need to do is put these captives before a military tribunal that is properly regulated by the national government. If that tribunal is satisfied that the captives are members of an illegal armed group they can simply be executed. Any armed group such as ISIL that by design engages in war crimes and crimes against humanity such as genocide is by definition an illegal armed group.

If the international community does not have to stomach for what will be a very large number of executions these captives can be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC). As has been done in places such as Nuremberg follow the Second World War, Cambodia and following the Balkan wars of the 1990's the ICC can then hold mass trials of all these captives on charges of genocide and other crimes against humanity. However the ICC cannot impose the death penalty as punishment.

The problem with this approach is that everyone is simply going to blame the person above them in the chain-of-command. At the top of that chain-of-command you are going to get names like Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and current US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power. Getting Ambassador Power in particular not to veto her own prosecution is going to be quite the challenge.

I personally have absolutely no moral qualms with senior ISIL figures and particularly the foreign fighters being executed via military tribunal. After all if you've travelled all the way from somewhere like France or the UK to Iraq to commit crimes against humanity you've already made some pretty big choices about your life.

The problem though is the Iraqi and Syrian ISIL fighters. Particularly at the low level many of these people have been swept up into ISIL with very little choice in the matter. ISIL's policy of; "Join Us Or Die" has been a particularly effective recruiting tool.

Just on a moral level I would find it very uncomfortable for these low-level, local hires to be executed. I think quite reasonably it will certainly produce a backlash from the friends and relatives of the executed. That sort of backlash creates a very fertile breeding ground for future terrorism.

That said I don't think that even low-level ISIL members should be able to completely escape punishment. However rather than execution I'm thinking short, one to two year, prison sentences.

That brings us into the complex issues of how to tackle prison radicalisation. Although I think it's been massively overstated the cramped and otherwise poor conditions as Camp Bucca certainly played some role in turning Iraqis first to Al Qaeda and then ISIL.

So as far as I'm concerned the operation to liberate Mosul remains the big story of the war at the moment.

Unfortunately the west's frankly unhealthy obsession with the Syrian city of Aleppo has continued. As a result this is the story that has been the most discussed of late. Sadly the loudest voices in that discussion have been the least well informed and much of what they've said has simply been wrong.

Certainly since 2012 Aleppo City has been divided into three sections;

The west of the city like the majority of Syria itself has remained loyal to the Syrian government and this area has remained under the control of that government.

In the north a predominately but not exclusively Kurdish enclave of the city has remained under the control and protection of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The east of the city has fallen under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). This is a coalition of Sunni-Islamist terror groups that is headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).

The Army of Conquest is directly allied to ISIL with the two groups working together on the spring/summer 2015 Northwestern offensive. This saw the Army of Conquest seize the town of Jisr al-Shughur and ISIL seize the city of Palmyra.

In June the Syrian government backed by Russia began an operation to liberate the east of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. The first stage of this was securing control of the Castello Road ring-road which encircles the city.

Although there have been operations since then on November 15th (15/11/16) the Syrian government launched a big push deep into east Aleppo City. On November 26th (26/11/12) this forced the Army of Conquest into a massive collapse. By November 28th (28/11/16) the Army of Conquest had lost control 11 neighbourhoods in the east of the city.

This limited the Army of Conquest to just two neighbourhoods west of the Aleppo Citadel in almost the centre of the east along and six neighbourhoods south of the Citadel arcing around to the Hamdaniya neighbourhood which is technically in the south-west of the city.

By December 7th (7/12/16) the Syrian government had succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods west of the Citadel and two of the neighbourhoods to the south-west of the city up to the Sukkari neighbourhood to the south.

In response to the Army of Conquest losing ground the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest. It screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.

This latest attempt to protect the Army of Conquest at any cost culminated in meeting between primarily the US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna, Austria on Saturday (10/12/16). As we've come to expect in preparation for the meeting nations that support the Army of Conquest unleashed a barrage of pranks and stunts intended to put pressure on Russia.

So Friday (9/12/16) the CIA claimed that Russia had used computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. With those comments being made off-the-record the CIA obviously didn't have to produce any evidence to back up that claim.

On Saturday (10/12/16) a televised speech by the leader of the UK's opposition Labour Party was interrupted by rather famous protester Peter Tatchell demanding that Britain does more to protect the Army of Conquest.

However I don't think even the people playing these pranks intended for them to be taken seriously.

For example Russia knows better than anybody that it did not use computer hacking to help Donald Trump win the election. So America making a claim that everybody knows to be utterly ridiculous makes it almost impossible take seriously the claims of a humanitarian disasters in Aleppo City that the US was making at the same time. 

Although I hesitate to describe him as a professional protester Peter Tatchell has certainly been heavily involved in political protest at a very high level for the best part of thirty years. As a result a lot of people in the business know who he is and he certainly knows how to play the game.

In making his protest in support of the Army of Conquest Peter Tatchell chose to wear a black shirt.

Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempts to use both ISIL and the Army of Conquest to, well, conquer Syria as part of the new Ottoman Empire he's desperate to build is very much based on Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

There Adolf Hitler backed local forces - the Sudeten German Party (SdP) - to carry out terror attacks against local civilians. Particularly in the city of Ostrava. Hitler then demanded the atrocities he was carrying out be used as an excuse to invade Czechoslovakia to set up safe-havens for these 'oppressed civilians.'

In his rise to power in Germany Hitler was supported by a militia known as the Storm Detachment/Sturmabteilung (SD). Their uniform featured a brown shirt. As Nazism was effectively franchised across Europe SD-like groups were formed such as the Blackshirts in Britain and the Blueshirts in the Irish Republic. 

Obviously people don't really comment if you wear a blue shirt these days. So the wearing of a black shirt or simply the term; "Blackshirt" has become a sort of shorthand for; "Nazi."

For those who are familiar with European history the spectacle of a Nazi demanding that the Army of Conquest be given safe-havens in Aleppo City makes a strong statement. You would hope it is not one that encourages people to support the Army of Conquest.

The problem has arisen in the US where Hillary Clinton supporters still refuse to acknowledge that she lost the election. 

So rather than allowing it to be funny on Friday and then forgotten by Monday they've leaped on the CIA's little prank in an effort to keep the story going. Hillary Clinton is even demanding that Electoral College electors be briefed on the issue in an effort to stage a coup that would she her appointed President.  

Thus further underlining the fact that Hillary Clinton is totally unfit to be President of a golf club let alone a country.

Fortunately Syria and Russia have been treating international demands that parts of Aleppo City be left under Army of Conquest occupation with the respect they deserve. On Monday (12/12/16) the Army of Conquest lost control of the neighbours south of the Citadel including the Sukkari neighbourhood. 

As such on Monday (12/12/16) night Aleppo City was declared liberated from the Army of Conquest.

In talking about the operation to liberate Mosul I compared this type of urban warfare to a hostage rescue operation that the police might undertake. As the Army of Conquest's occupation has been reduced to a last few hold-outs this comparison has become plain to see.

Following Monday's (12/12/16) liberation there are - at likely an inflated estimate - only around 1,000 Army of Conquest members left in Aleppo City. They are barricaded in a handful of buildings using around 3,000 civilian hostages as human shields. 

As they're equipped with battlefield weapons like heavy machine guns and the homemade; "Hell Cannon" artillery pieces they can control the streets around those buildings across a maximum of around 8 kmsq (4.8 milesq).

From a military perspective what you would do is conduct airstrikes against those buildings killing the remaining Army of Conquest members and freeing the city.

A legitimate military force would not engage in the Army of Conquest's tactic of taking civilians hostage. It is after all a clear war crime and possibly a crime against humanity. Instead a legitimate military force would surrender. 

However the Army of Conquest have decided to throw everything they've got into a desperate last attempt to continue their occupation of Aleppo City.

As with most military forces the Army of Conquest's combatants can be divided into the three main groups. Obviously there are the fighters. Then there are the logistical support groups. In this case the White Helmets group and those providing medical services. 

Finally you have the intelligence/propaganda group. Within the Army of Conquest this is a particularly large group. They were created by the US amongst others providing millions of dollars of training and broadcasting equipment at the behest of then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

This group of Army of Conquest combatants main role is to produce and distribute what is known in the trade as; "Grey Propaganda." It's purpose is to spread lies and falsify evidence of atrocities conducted by your enemy. The intention is to sway public opinion against your enemy and ideally turn it into support for your cause.

Obviously all groups of Army of Conquest combatants cooperate with each other in the production of this propaganda. 

So for example the fighters would massacre civilians protesters demanding to be set free. They would then pass the corpses to the White Helmets to bury under rubble so they can film footage of them 'recovering' the victims of an 'airstike.' The propaganda group then distribute those videos.

Back on November 24th (24/11/12) the White Helmets were forced to apologise for faking footage of a man being 'rescued' from the rubble as part of the Mannequin Challenge fad. They've faked so many of these rescue videos that in their minds they couldn't see a problem with faking another one.

Since Monday's (12/12/16) effective liberation of Aleppo City the Army of Conquest's propagandists have engaged in a frantic burst of activity. They've been posting tearful "Goodbye" videos intended to tug at the heartstrings all over the Internet along with wild claim after wild claim of civilians being massacred.

At around 18:05 on 14/12/16 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.


Edited at around 19:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date) to add;

With the Army of Conquest desperately trying to cling on to the last sliver of Aleppo City it occupied the the international community did what it always does when areas are being liberated from the Army of Conquest. 

It's screamed about a looming humanitarian disaster and demanded that the Syrians protect the Army of Conquest.

So yesterday (13/12/16) the UK House of Commons held an emergency debate on Aleppo City. This was scene to some very wild an incoherent statements. 

For example there was lots of talk about making aid drops. Nobody seemed even remotely bothered by the fact that even with the latest high-tech GPS guided parachutes you can't make aid drops into a less then 8kmsq area. Even if you were inclined to commit a crime against humanity providing material support to the Army of Conquest.


The debate was called by Andrew Mitchell. He was very keen that evidence is collected and prosecutions are launched against those engaging in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria. As Andrew Mitchell can legally be described as the co-conspirator of now defunct MP Jo Cox that struck me as a particularly unwise position for him to be taking.


There was also frequent references made to the August 21st 2013 Sarin gas attack in the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus - Obama's so-called red line. Due to the current political climate within Turkey that is an extremely sensitive issue. To the point that I'm not totally happy even confirming that the issue exists. So let's just say that when the Army of Conquest wildly inflated the death toll they probably weren't thinking they'd be having it read back to them in Court.


The main role in the performance though went to George Osborne - the UK's former Chief Finance Minister. He condemned all those MP's who voted to stop him sending British forces to act as ISIL's air force back in 2013.


As finance minister George Osborne's big idea was that the UK must completely eliminate its national debt. At the recent autumn statement Osborne's replacement announced plans to grow the UK national debt. Although we're being subtle and trying to brush it of as the Brexit effect it's quite clear that George Osborne has been fired by his own party and all of his crazy plans have been rejected.


Later France called an emergency session at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to call for action to allow the Army of Conquest's occupation of Aleppo City to continue.


At the same time that France was calling internationally for the Army of Conquest to be protected domestically it's national security council was extending France's state of emergency for the fifth time. That is to protect the French public from attacks by the terrorists that France is demanding are protected in Aleppo City.


It was one of those moments that had you quietly rubbing your temples and reaching for the aspirin.


Having grown tired of protecting nations like France and the UK from their own stupidity in response to this diplomatic pressure Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire starting at 03:00 (GMT) today.


The purpose of this ceasefire was to allow the combatants of the Army of Conquest to leave - with their weapons - to the nearby city of Idlib.  The city of Idlib sits all of 20km (12 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. So in making this offer Russia knew full well that Turkey will continue to support the Army of Conquest in Idlib and those terrorists will continue to fight against the Syrian people.


All the Army of Conquest had to do to take Russia up on this extremely generous offer is agree to let their civilian hostages go.

The problem is that the Army of Conquest seem to have taken things like the UK debate and the UNSC session at face value. So as you can see from today's renewed fighting they have rejected the Russian offer thinking that if they can cling onto their hostages for just a little while longer the international community will soon leap to their aid with airdrops and airstrikes.

This ceasefire deal really serves to highlight just how utterly detached from reality much of the media coverage and political discussion regarding the Syria conflict has become.

I think it's fair to say that it's being widely reported that the purpose of the ceasefire was to allow civilians to be evacuated from Aleppo City. In fact it is the complete and exact opposite of that.

The purpose of the ceasefire is to allow the Army of Conquest to leave Aleppo City setting the civilian population free. Those newly freed civilians will then be able to remain in their homes or move about the rest of Syria as they choose.

There is also a piece of video footage that really highlights how skewed particularly western media coverage has become. 

It shows civilians clutching their meagre belongings walking along an Aleppo street in the pouring rain. It seems to have been picked up by every TV news network and stills from it have been used across newspapers and the Internet.

This footage was shot by a Syrian news channel embedded with the Syrian army. 

What has happened is that the Syrian army has broken through one of the Army of Conquest's lines of defence freeing a few streets. Having rescued those civilians the Syrian army is then escorting them out of terrorist occupied territory to other areas under government control where they can receive emergency aid and crucially be safe away from the battle lines.


However that footage is being portrayed to give the entirely false impression that the civilians are fleeing with the terrorists away from the Syrian army.


20:50 on 14/12/16 (UK date).