Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 1, Day 1

This should be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-29-week-5_20.html

In that post I detailed how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been feeling the pressure ever since Hillary Clinton was defeated in the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election. It is extremely unlikely that America's next President, Donald Trump will give Erdogan anywhere near the level of support as outgoing US President Barack Obama.

I also explained how the December 12th (12/12/16) liberation of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo has caused Erdogan's world to start collapsing around his ears. With Aleppo City liberated not only have the Syrians and their Russian backers secured the country's largest city it now makes it virtually impossible for Erdogan to supply the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) Islamist terror coalition in their positions south of Aleppo City.

Since December 12th (12/12/16) Erdogan has been engaged in a mad scramble to forcibly transfer Aleppo city's civilian population to the area around the city of Idlib  - some 60km (35 miles) south-west- which remains under Army of Conquest occupation. This area has been designated as; "The Sudetenland."

This transfer of civilians is still ongoing and subject to almost constant negotiation. Therefore it is really too early to start talking properly about what Erdogan wants to do with those civilians once they've been transferred to the Sudetenland.

However I think that it is pretty obvious that the minimum Erdogan expects is that these civilians will serve as human shields. The idea being that this will prevent the Syrians from now going on to liberate the Sudetenland.

I think Erdogan's dream scenario is that the Army of Conquest will be able to use the Sudetenland as a base of operations. The hope being that with Erdogan's support the Army of Conquest will one day be able to fight their way out of the Sudetenland and conquer all of Syria overthrowing the secular Syrian state.

Between all out victory and all out defeat Erdogan is likely to turn his attentions north of the Sudetenland.

This will bring the Army of Conquest into an area controlled by the moderate Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) which is known as the; "Afrin Canton." If the Army of Conquest is able to conquer the Afrin Canton they will link up with the regular Turkish forces currently occupying the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch between Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River which is known as; "Garvaghy Road."

So even if he is not able to fully conquer Syria as part of his new Ottoman Empire Erdogan will certainly attempt to absorb these border areas into Turkey. Hence the comparison with the Sudetenland.

Of course in order to achieve any of these scenarios Erdogan must gain the consent of the Syrians and their Russian and Iranian allies. Either by simply defeating them on the battlefield or through negotiation.

The first round of these negotiation talks were scheduled to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th (27/12/16).

However due to the disruption caused by France trying to raise the issue of the Aleppo City transfers at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that meeting was brought forward to yesterday (20/12/16) and was held in Moscow, Russia.

Ahead of that meeting Erdogan made an extremely bold opening play.

On Monday (19/12/16) Erdogan sent one of his personal police bodyguards - Mevlut Mert Altintas - to assassinate the Russian Ambassador to Turkey - Andrei Karlov - as he was opening an exhibition on Russian photography at an art gallery in Turkey's capital Ankara.

Under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations Turkey's failure to protect the Ambassador let alone that they carried out the assassination themselves constitutes an act of war by Turkey against Russia. If Russia chooses to treat it as such.

This type of strategy is something that I very much remember from my football days.

Although it sounds counter intuitive if you've got someone who is being aggressive or otherwise unruly sometimes the best thing to do is the moment you approach them say or do the most offensive thing you can think of. I once approached someone from behind, pressed my thumbs into the pressure points in their armpits and lifted them off the ground turning them around 180 degrees in the process.

Obviously if the person reacts to that provocation by throwing a punch at you then you've got the excuse you were looking for to punch them straight back. It must be said though if you were being arrogant in thinking you could win the ensuing fight only to discover that you can't things are not going to end well for you.

However more often then not the speed of the sudden escalation knocks the person off balance and they don't retaliate. Having not retaliated to the extreme provocation it then becomes almost impossible for them to retaliate when you tell them to do something much more reasonable. As a result you then control the situation and the person does what you want them to do.

From his sharp suit, the way he handled his gun and his general demeanour Altintas reminded me of Ilich Ramírez Sánchez (AKA: "Carlos the Jackal"). Or perhaps more accurately the way that he was portrayed by Edgar Ramirez in the 2010 movie "Carlos." Being some six hours long that movie is normally shown in three parts.

Although he's still alive and in prison in France Carlos the Jackal was a very famous terrorist in the 1970's.

During this golden age of international terrorism barely a week went by without gunman hijacking a plane or taking hostages in a building. They would then negotiate the release of these hostages in return for the release of prisoners - often Palestinian ones. More often than not some ropey third world leader would try to boost their international profile by offering to broker the exchange.

Erdogan's attempts to transfer civilians from Aleppo City in exchange for the release of hostages from Foua and Kefraya certainly bring back memories of that era. Those green buses were everywhere in those days.

As I've mentioned before this golden age of terrorism was the result of this arc of resistance that featured the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, the Red Army Faction (RAF) in Germany and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). They were countered by similar NATO backed groups such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in Turkey and Combat 18 in the UK and parts of Europe.

However there were also those who set out to imitate those groups in the arc of resistance. So while Germany had the RAF it also had the Revolutionary Cells. The PLO were rivalled by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).

Carlos the Jackal functioned as the middleman linking these imitation groups together. First as part of the PFLP before branching out on his own as effectively a mercenary.

Annoyingly at around 18:25 on 21/12/16 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 20:20 on 21/12/16 (UK date) to add;

The PFLP's probably most famous operation was the June 27th 1976 hijacking of Air France flight 139 from Tel Aviv, Israel to Paris, France shortly after it had made a scheduled stop in Athens, Greece. The hijackers redirected the flight to Entebbe in Uganda where eccentric Ugandan President Idi Amin offered to help them negotiate the release of the hostages in return for 53 prisoners mostly held in Israeli jails.

However the Israelis were in no mood to negotiate. So on July 4th 1976 they conducted what is still considered one of the most spectacular special forces operations in history. This resulted in the deaths of all the hijackers and the safe release of 102 of the 106 hostages. The operation was led by Yonatan Netanyahu
who was killed during the rescue. Yonatan Netanyahu is/was the brother of Benjamin Netanyahu - the current Israeli Prime Minister.

On December 15th (15/12/16) a man by the name of Mohammed al-Zawari was shot and killed outside his home in the Tunisian town of Sfax. An aviation engineer al-Zawari had been working with the Palestinian group Hamas to help them develop military drones.

One effect of Erdogan's interference in Egypt has been to cause a split between Sunni Hamas and their traditional Shia ally Hezbollah. Hamas falling under Erdogan's rather than Iran's influence has caused two wars with Israel in 2012 and 2014. It almost goes without saying that Israel won both of those wars.

So in comparing the current situation in Aleppo City with the 1972 Munich Olympic hostage crisis I may have inadvertently touched a nerve. After all that went very badly for the hostages. It went even worse for the PFLP backed Black September group who planned the attack.

Having been suddenly promoted within the PFLP Carlos the Jackal's probably most famous operation was seizing delegates at a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at a meeting in Vienna, Austria on December 21st 1975.

The plan was that after a ransom had been paid and green buses provided the hostages would be transported to an airport where a waiting plane had been supplied.

The hostages would then be flown to their respective countries and then released after they had made a public statement condemning Yasser Arafat's PLO's attempts to make peace with Israel. The kidnappers would then fly to Aden in what is now Yemen and make good their escape.

Unfortunately the plane - a DC-9 - that Carlos the Jackal had insisted upon didn't have the range to fly to all these countries. So the plan fell to pieces and Carlos the Jackal was expelled from the PFLP in disgrace.

The 2010 movie "Carlos" starts with a disclaimer pointing out that the exact details of these criminal acts backed by Cold War intelligence agencies aren't exactly in the public domain. As such they acknowledge that they've made up large sections of the story.

However the movie claims that the OPEC siege had nothing to do with the Palestinian cause. Instead it claims that the Iraqi government of Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr had paid the PFLP to carry out the operation on its behalf. 

The movie goes on to claim that this was done because al-Bakr wanted to start a war with pre-Revolution Iran whose Shah was backing Iraqi Kurdish separatists led by Mustafa Barzani - the father of current President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani.

However in order to fund this war al-Bakr needed OPEC to raise the oil price. Saudi Arabia wouldn't allow this so the true mission of the OPEC siege was to kill the Saudi representative while making it look like an accident.

Obviously I cannot in any way comment on how truthful the movie's claims are. However the fact the story exists means that referencing it allows Erdogan to bring all of those issues to the negotiating table.

Erdogan is obviously very interested to know whether Iran will use its influence in both Syria and Iraq to protect the Kurds or will they allow Erdogan to bulldoze his way through the Afrin Canton and Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

Following yesterday's meeting a bomb went off in the offices of the Iranian branch of Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party (KDPI) in the town of Koya just east of Erbil. Now this could be a sign that Iran's is prepared to allow Erdogan to go after the Kurds. However it could also have been a signal that is what was being discussed at the meeting.

Either way the Kurds - particularly Barzani - should consider it a warning. After all despite two years of airstrikes they still seem to view Erdogan as their friend and Shias as their enemy. That sort of attitude hardly encourages Iran to do him the sort of favours they did for his father.

The December 2016 OPEC meeting was also quite interesting. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut production to drive up the oil price. However Iran will be allowed to grow its production meaning that it will benefit the most from the price rise.

The reason why Saudi Arabia has made this concession to its great regional rival that its current war against Yemen is bleeding it dry.

Saudi Arabia is currently struggling to honour its contracts and has been forced to cut the support it gives to Egypt in return for Egypt participating in the Yemen war. In nations like the UK and the US there have been moves to stop supplying advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia. Rather than being over humanitarian concerns that is the result of a growing doubts that Saudi Arabia can no longer afford to pay for those weapons.

So adding to Erdogan's headaches if he does decide to go to war with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Europe and the US he can't rely on Saudi Arabia to support him. They can't afford it.

Yesterday (20/12/16) there were rumblings that Erdogan intended to blame the assassination of Karlov on the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). That of course would allow Erdogan to crack down on the MHP alongside the People's Democratic Party (HDP) meaning that only Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP) will get to vote on this constitutional reform bill.

However today Erdogan has come out and fully blamed the assassination of the Fettulah Gulen movement.

Turkey is currently trying to extradite Gulen from the US. Linking him to the assassination of an Ambassador would certainly increase pressure on the US to comply.

Erdogan seems to be gambling on Russian President Putin having such a deep hatred of the US that the opportunity to embarrass them will be compensation enough for the murder of one of his Ambassadors.

It is the equivalent of Erdogan slapping the weeping Putin he's just raped on the backside and telling him; "Stop your crying. I'll buy you something nice to make up for it."

Meanwhile there are rumblings that Russia is about to set Ramzan Kadyrov on Erdogan. If Erdogan does not know that name I suggest that he learns it quickly.

21:55 on 21/12/16 (UK date).