On Monday (12/12/16) the Syrian government backed by Russia effectively liberated the northern Syrian city of Aleppo from the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). The Army of Conquest being the Al Qaeda-led coalition of extreme Sunni-Islamist terror groups.
Roughly 1,000 JAF combatants remained holed up in a roughly 8kmsq (4.8 milesq) area in the very south of the city. With them they held hostage somewhere in the region of 3,000 civilians who they were using as human shields.
Rather than endangering those civilians on Tuesday (13/12/16) Syria and Russia made the remaining JAF combatants an offer. Not only would they be free to leave the city Syria and Russia would actually provide transport for them to leave the city. All the JAF had to do in return was set their captives free.
On Wednesday (14/12/16) the JAF rejected this offer. So Syria and Russia made them an improved offer. Transport would be provided for the JAF to leave the city. However in return for being allowed to keep their Aleppo hostages the JAF would have to release a similar number of civilian hostages they are holding in two villages - Foua and Kefraya - that remain under their occupation.
Obviously once the JAF had left the 8kmsq area of Aleppo City it would then be possible to evacuate wounded civilians who had been trapped there to other parts of Aleppo City for medical treatment. However although this would occur at the same time this is technically a co-benefit that is separate from the deal to evacuate JAF combatants from the city.
From Aleppo City the JAF combatants and their hostages would be transported to a roughly 600kmsq (360milesq) area under JAF control centred around the city of Idlib - some 60km (35 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
To the north this area is bordered by what is know as; "The Afrin Canton" which is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). To the east and south it is bordered by areas controlled by the Syrian government. To the west it is bordered by Turkey. For a very obvious reason this area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Yesterday (15/12/16) the JAF evacuated their roughly 3,000 hostages from Aleppo City. However the majority of their combatants remained in Aleppo City. Those combatants are now trying to put pressure on Syria and Russia to allow them to remove a very large proportion of the city's civilian population - the figure of 60,000 has been floated - and transfer them to the Sudetenland to act as human shields above the 3,000 agreed hostages.
This sort of forcible transfer by an armed group of a section of the civilian population is of course massively illegal under international law.
It certainly constitutes as war crime in contravention of Article 49 of Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). If those being transferred are predominately or exclusively members of a specific ethnic or religious group - i.e Sunni-Muslims - then it would constitute ethnic cleansing. A Crime Against Humanity in contravention of Article 7 of the 1998 Rome Statute.
Obviously nobody may participate in nor assist in the commission either a war crime or a crime against humanity. This is particularly true of international aid agencies such at the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) and the bodies of the United Nations (UN) such as the UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) or the UN World Food Program (WFP).
In fact if an international body - particularly the ICRC - is formally aware that such acts are taking place they are under an obligation to call for it to be stopped. You will notice that in media interviews yesterday the UN's Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O'Brien in particular went to pains to make clear that the UN is not party to events in Aleppo.
The reason why the JAF want to transfer Aleppo City's civilians to the Sudetenland is simple. Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that he wants to provide support for what he describes as civilians "fleeing" Aleppo City.
In order to provide this support Erdogan wants to cross the border into Syria to establish vast camps that will likely be 'protected' by the Turkish military.
Having established a Turkish enclave within Syrian territory Erdogan will then likely set about changing the demographics of the enclave to make it more Turkish. This is what he is already doing in the Syrian town of Jarablus where Turkish troops are forcing local schools to teach only in the Turkish language.
Erdogan's plan presents another major problem for the international community. If international bodies such as the ICRC or the bodies of the UN were to support civilians in this Turkish enclave they would recognise Turkey as an Occupying Power for the purposes of international law.
Under the UN Charter - a cornerstone of international law - Turkey has now excuse nor authority to occupy Syria. Therefore if Turkey were formally recognised as an occupying power the UN Security Council (UNSC) would have no option other than to authorise military force under Chapter 7 to bring Turkey's illegal occupation to an end.
This is all obviously creating an extremely tense political atmosphere. So tense in fact that having something of a loud voice anything I say on the subject at this point is likely to cause more harm than good.
In this extremely tense atmosphere France has decided to call a closed session of the UNSC tonight. In order to forces everybody to firmly declare where they stand on the issue.
Fortunately things seem to be sorting themselves out.
Today (16/12/16) the Syrian government has said that the JAF's remaining combatants must leave Aleppo City before any more civilians are transferred out. The JAF have refused this so the Syrians have suspended the transfer process.
In retaliation the JAF have started shelling civilians in the villages of Foua and Kefraya. There are obviously concerns that JAF fighters in Aleppo City will join in with this violence.
12:15 on 16/12/16 (UK date).
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