Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 3, Day 6.

In my last post on the topic I mentioned how the mood music had started to change since Hillary Clinton failed to secure the US Presidency on November 8th (8/11/16). Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already begun to respond to that change.

On December 6th (6/12/16) the Turkish Stock Exchange (Borse) announced that it was converting all its foreign currency holdings into Turkish Lira. This is part of an Erdogan-led nationwide program to help prop up Turkey's collapsing currency. This collapse has come before anyone has started to discuss imposing economic sanctions on Turkey let alone seeking reparations for all the damage that Turkey has done in Syria, Iraq and Europe.

Prior to that on November 29th (29/11/16) a fire tore through a school dormitory in the town of Aladag in Turkey's Adana province. This fire killed 11 schoolgirls between the ages of 11 and 18 and injured 22 more.

The fact that this was a fire was a reference to the severe wildfires that recently swept through parts of Israel starting on November 22nd (22/11/16).

This was one of the stories that rather passed me by as I was trying to catch up on what I missed during my recent Internet outage. However it has certainly been alleged that these fires were started deliberately as an act of terrorism. That would certainly fit with the point raised during the US election campaign that Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons to destroy Israel.

The US attempted to match the Israeli fires with an unseasonable wildfire of its own in Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Those fires have since been confirmed to have been a deliberate act of arson.

On July 16th 2015 (16/7/15) Chattanooga, Tennessee was scene of a shooting spree in which Kuwaiti born Muslim Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez shot and killed 5 members of the US military at a recruiting centre and a base. At the time there was a lot of discussion about whether this should be considered an Islamist terror attack.

On Tuesday (6/12/16) outgoing US President Obama gave his final speech on national security. In it he claimed that Islamist terrorists had not been able to carry out a single terror attack on US soil during his two terms. I think that makes Obama's attitude towards the Chattanooga attacks quite clear.

Turkey's Adana province is home to United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk. This has long been a bone of contention between the US and Turkey with Erdogan initially denying the US permission to use its airbase in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On June 7th 2015 (7/6/15) Erdogan's Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) were defeated in the country's Parliamentary election. This thwarted Erdogan's plan to turn the office of President into a executive position so he could continue his rule in defiance of the nation's constitutional term limits.

In response Obama decided to side with Erdogan against the Turkish people in return for being allowed permission to use USAF Incirilk. However as a curious further condition Obama agreed that Incirilk could not be used to conduct airstrikes against ISIL.

On July 15th (15/7/16) Turkey saw a rising against Erdogan's growing dictatorship. Despite Obama once again siding with Erdogan against the Turkish people by giving him airtime on CNN to crush the rising Erdogan blamed this popular intifada on the US.

In response Erdogan's forces laid siege to USAF Incirlik for several weeks claiming that it was where the rising had been planned. This forced the US to relocate the around 50 nuclear warheads it had stationed at Incirlik to Romania amid fears that Erdogan would seize them and hand them to ISIL.

Shortly after the siege of Incirlik was lifted the airbase was again threatened. This time by wildfires which admittedly occurred during the natural wildfire season.

Sitting on the Mediterranean coast Adana province has long been one of the main staging points from which Turkey has flooded Europe with wave-after-wave of irregular migrants/refugees. The famous picture of Aylan Kurdi was taken in Bodrum which is just some 300km (180 miles) along the coast.

The nature of a fire taking place in a school dormitory was reminiscent of numerous mass casualty Islamist terror attacks.

Particularly the April 15th 2014 (15/4/14) kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls from their dormitories in Chibok, Borno state, Nigeria by the ISIL affiliate Boko Haram. The December 16th 2014 (16/14/14) Islamist terror attack on a school in Peshawar, Pakistan in which 141 people were murdered. The April  2nd 2015 (2/4/15) Islamist terror attack on a university in Garissa, Kenya in which the ISIL affiliated Al-Shabaab murdered 148.

As such the Aladag fire was intended as a threat to the EU. Either give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will once again flood the EU with irregular migrants some of whom will be instructed to carry out mass casualty terror attacks similar to the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres.

The specific school involved in the Aladag fire is a private one run by an religious foundation formed in honour of the Sufi Islamic scholar Suleyman Hilmi Tunahan.

Sufism is a much more moderate form of - often Shia - Islam. Particularly because they encourage things like educating women and girls in things like science they are utterly despised by Sunni extremists like Erdogan and ISIL who consider them to be the worst form of infidel. Lower even than the Jews.

Therefore domestically the fire was intended to whip Erdogan's core support into a further frenzy by showing he is prepared to cleanse the earth of infidels.

Comparisons are also being drawn with the similarly moderate religious foundation schools of Fettulah Gulen. Erdogan claims Gulen is a US spy responsibly for plotting the rising against him and frequently cites the fact the US has not extradited him to Turkey as evidence of Obama's part in the vast conspiracy against Erdogan.

As such the fire also seems intended to scare the wider Turkish population into thinking that the global Zionist, infidel conspiracy is preparing to to murder 'good' Turkish Muslims in their beds just the same as Erdogan claims they are doing in the Aleppo City.

Primarily though as with the November 25th (25/11/16) sonic boom and the November 27th (27/11/16) UFO's the Aladag fire was an attempt by Erdogan to find out where he stands in this post-Hillary Clinton, pre-Donald Trump vacuum.

The problem is that everybody else is currently trying to do that.

For example China has been particularly exercised on the issue of Climate Change. That seems to be because although it would almost been foolish for them not to take advantage of the massive gift Obama has dropped into their lap deep down they know that for the sake of the climate the Paris Agreement needs to be scrapped.

If you are familiar with the December 16th 2014 (16/14/14) Peshawar attack, the April  2nd 2015 (2/4/15) attack in Garissa, Kenya and the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres you would know that they are all inextricably linked to the Paris Agreement. Which is why it is sometimes referred to as; "The 12/12 Atrocity."

So recently we've had a number of what can only be collectively termed; "Fiery disasters." Bulgaria seem to the latest ones trying to get in on the action. Particularly the November 9th (9/11/16) Croydon tram crash action.

However last Saturday (3/12/16) there were a number of notable fires in the US. Particularly in Cambridge, Massachusetts and at what is being described as; "The Ghost Ship Warehouse" in Oakland, California  where 36 people lost their lives.

The reason for the high death toll at the Ghost Ship Warehouses is simply that the owners completely ignored all relevant safety regulations. That is a very common problem in China. However rumours that the fire may have been caused by an electrical fault are very similar to the Aladag fire. In fact if they blame it on an out of date fusebox it will be exactly the same.

However I should point out that due to the building owner's complete disregard for safety regulations it wouldn't have taken much to cause a tragedy in the building. To the point where I'm not totally convinced that the Cambridge fire wasn't the planned response and the Oakland fire was just a random accident.

This has all created a very strange circular situation where everybody is trying to find out what everybody is saying. However the only thing that anybody is saying is trying to find out what everybody else is saying.

At around 18:45 on 10/12/16 (UK date) I'll add to this after dinner.

Edited at around 19:45 on 10/12/16 (UK date) to add; 

Fortunately all this uncertainty has meant that Erdogan has been relatively well behaved in Syria recently.

Erdogan's main interest in Syria is the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of territory between Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River. This is sometimes referred to as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."

Certainly since November 6th (6/11/16) Turkish operations within Garvaghy Road have been focused on preventing the US backed, anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) advancing along the M4 Motorway from Manbij to ISIL occupied al-Bab. If the SDF were able to liberate al-Bab it would cut ISIL's supply lines between Turkey and their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa.

In the course of the battle over the M4 road on November 24th (24/11/16) Turkish airstrikes killed two members of the SDF's "Quinta Brigada" international brigade; Michael Israel aged 27 from Sacramento, California, US and Anton Leschek a German national of undisclosed age.

On that same day Syrian forces conducted an airstrike on Turkish forces in the area killing four. This served as a reminder that Turkish forces are an illegal force of invasion and occupation who are most certainly not welcome in Syria. A nation whose air defences are still most certainly active.

Since then Erdogan largely paused Turkey's operations within Syria.

Unfortunately Obama has decided to once again swoop in and be the wind beneath Erdogan's wings.

Today it has been announced that the US is to deploy a further 200 Special Forces Operators to Syria. This is in addition to the 300 already deployed. Although this has only been publicly confirmed today I get the impression the deployment was actually completed back on Thursday (8/12/16) at the latest.

Along with the threat of removing US air support for the SDF and even using that American air power directly against the SDF this latest deployment is part of a US plan to intimidate the SDF into launching an operation against Raqqa.

An operation to liberate ISIL's de facto capital in Syria is going to be at least as difficult as the operation currently underway to liberate ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq - Mosul. For that operation the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have deployed a combined force of around 40,000 troops.

In total the SDF is made up of around 70,000 troops. Even before they think about mounting an operation to liberate Mosul that SDF force has to provide security for the roughly 12,000kmsq (7,200 milesq) buffer-zone/safe-haven they have established across northern Syria west of the Euphrates to the Syria/Iraq border.

The SDF also has to provide security for the roughly 900kmsq (540 milesq) buffer-zone/safe-haven they have established between Azaz and the Syria/Turkey border to the west.

The SDF also have to provide security within the three districts of Aleppo City which they now control.

In all of these areas the main threat to civilians is Turkey. Particularly the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who fight as part of the ISIL allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

In their efforts to liberate Mosul those 40,000 ISF/Peshmerga troops travel around in armoured Humvees and the latest Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) troop carriers. They are backed by French and American Special Operations Forces (SOF) artillery units and are provided with air cover by the US-led Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) aircraft including top of the line AH-64 Apache helicopter gunships.

By contrast the SDF have some rusty Soviet-era heavy machine guns welded to the back of 30 year old Toyota pick-up trucks.

Therefore the only strategic explanation for Obama to pressure the SDF into an operation to liberate Raqqa is that it is intended as a suicide mission.

The idea being that the SDF will be completely wiped out. That will leave the Army of Conquest free to claim the mantle of; "moderate opposition" and Erdogan will move his forces into the two buffer-zones/safe-havens under SDF control and annex northern Syria.

With Obama once again trying to throw the full weight of US support behind the idea of creating an Erdogan controlled Islamist terror state within Syria's border it almost goes without saying that Erdogan has once again leapt back into action.

Yesterday (9/12/16) Turkey resumed airstrikes against SDF positions on the Manbij to al-Bab road. Today Turkey has been excitedly announcing that it is in the advanced stages of absorbing ISIL fighters in al-Bab into the Army of Conquest command structure.

Buoyed by this development ISIL have have launched a fresh offensive to capture the city of Palmyra in the hope of reversing recent Army of Conquest losses in Aleppo City by stretching Syrian government forces. Essentially a re-run of the combined JAF/ISIL 2015 Northwestern offensive in which ISIL initially captured Palmyra.

So. Immediately following the US election many American commentators wanted to know what would happen if Donald Trump gave the US military an unlawful order.

Obama has once again given the US military an order that is not only in complete violation of international law but also constitutes an act of treason against the US.

It would be embarrassing if someone actually has to shoot him just 41 days before his term expires.

21:15 on 10/12/16 (UK date).