Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 4, Day 1.

Last Thursday (8/12/16) I hit on what I thought was a very cunning plan.

I would write a single post covering developments on the three main areas in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. Mosul in Iraq, Aleppo City in Syria and the area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."

At the time the Garvaghy Road area had been particularly quiet.

Following Hillary Clinton's failure to secure the US Presidency on November 8th (8/11/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor was keen to find out where he stood and whether he would continue to enjoy the support and protection of the US that has seen him prosper over recent years. While Erdogan was trying to make that assessment Turkey's force of invasion and occupation had paused their operations withing Garvaghy Road.

I should point out that on Thursday I was recovering from a cold that had put me out of action the previous day. Therefore this plan might have been slightly optimistic to begin with.

However as has so often been the case the real problem was caused by outgoing US President Barack Obama. With now just 39 days left of his Presidency Obama seems to have decided that he wants his legacy to the world to be the creation of an Erdogan controlled Islamist terror state within Syria.

So on Saturday (10/12/16) the US announced that it was deploying a further 200 Special Forces Operators (SFO's) to northern Syria. This is to add to the 300 already deployed bringing the total to 500. I get the impression that deployment was actually completed on Thursday (8/12/16) at the latest.

This deployment is intended to put pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who are the main anti-ISIL force within Syria to launch an operation to liberate ISIL's de facto Syrian capital - Raqqa. It goes alongside the twin threat that the US-led air coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - will either withdraw its support from the SDF or even launch attacks against the SDF if they don't comply.

In liberating Mosul - ISIL's de facto Iraqi capital - the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have deployed a joint force of 40,000 heavily armed troops. In this US mandated operation to liberate Raqqa the SDF are deploying just 2,500 troops. Along with the 500 SFO's this creates a combined force of just 3,000 lightly armed troops.

As such the only strategic explanation for this Raqqa operation is that Obama is trying to get the SDF killed. Then when the SDF collapse and ISIL expand into the areas they once control it will provide Erdogan with an excuse to massively expand his invasion and occupation force beyond Garvaghy Road. Thus annexing northern Syria.

With Obama once again attempting to throw the full weight of the US behind Erdogan's dream of a new Ottoman Empire it almost goes without saying that Erdogan has once again leapt back into action.

Following a two week pause on Friday (9/12/16) Turkish forces resumed attacks on the SDF in order to seize control of the M4 motorway running between SDF controlled Manbij and ISIL controlled al-Bab. Over the weekend Turkey has announced that it has begun the process of absorbing ISIL fighters in al-Bab into the command structure of the Al Qaeda led, Turkish backed Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

On Saturday (10/12/16) Turkey staged a bomb attack on police guarding the Besiktas football stadium in Istanbul. Occurring hours after a match had ended and the crowds dispersed this bombing killed 44 people - 42 police officers and 2 civilians.

The Besiktas stadium - technically the Vodafone Arena - is located right on the banks of the Bosporus Strait.

Linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea this waterway is of great strategic importance. In short if you close the Bosporus Strait you can stop all sea traffic between the Black Sea and the rest of the World. This is a particular concern for Russia who are using their Black Sea ports to supply their forces in Syria via Syria's Mediterranean ports.

As Turkish troops advance south down Garvaghy Road and Russian backed Syria troops advance north from Aleppo City we are edging ever closer to those Russian backed Syrian troops coming into direct combat with those Turkish troops. In those circumstances Pakistan will come under great pressure to allow Turkey as it's Muslim brother to use Pakistan's nuclear weapons against Russia.

The Bosporus Strait is of such strategic importance that it was scene of one of the most important military campaigns of the First World War in which the Ottoman Empire fought alongside the German Empire against the Allied forces of France, Belgium, Britain and the US. Amongst the Allied nations this is known as; "The Gallipoli Campaign" while Turks refer to it as; "The Canakkale Campaign."

Commanding the 19th Division of the Ottoman Fifth Army was a young officer by the name of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Although the Ottoman's won the battle Ataturk realised that the Empire was going to lose the war. So he set about forming the modern nation of Turkey as the Ottoman Empire collapsed in the 1920's. Neo-Ottoman's such as Erdogan despise him for this.

Apart from being of strategic importance the Bosporus Strait is seen as the symbolic division between the European part of Turkey and the Asian/Middle-Eastern part of Turkey. Besiktas Stadium is located on the European side of the Bosporus Strait.

As such this bombing was intended as yet another Turkish threat to Europe. Either - particularly the European Union (EU) - gives Erdogan exactly what he wants of Erdogan will flood Europe with irregular migrants. Hidden amid those migrants will be Islamist terrorists tasked with carrying out atrocities such as the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres in France and the March 22nd (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium.

Today in the UK a trial has concluded with the sentencing of two men - Mohammed Ali Ahmed and Zakaria Boufassil - of funding the terror cell that conducted both the Paris Massacres and the Brussels Attacks. During the trial it emerged that Mohamed Abrini - the infamous "Man in the Hat" from the Brussels airport bombing - had travelled to the UK to meet these men. Specifically he had taken a tour of Manchester United's Old Trafford football stadium in what is suspected of being reconnaissance for a possible attack.

The attack also occurred as US President-elect Donald Trump was attending the annual US Army v Navy American Football game at a stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. As such it also seemed to be a threat not just to the US but to Donald Trump personally.  

Although absolutely nobody in the business (not even Turks) believe him Erdogan has rather predictably blamed the attack on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). As such the bombing was staged to help rally the Turkish people behind Erdogan as he tries to fight Turkish terror.

Erdogan has recently introduced a bill into the Turkish Parliament that would change the constitution making the Presidency an executive office. This will allow Erdogan to remain in power until at least 2029 despite his having already exceeded his term limits.

It almost goes without saying that this reform bill is being presented to the public as absolutely essential to help defeat PKK terror. Already Erdogan has used the bombing as excuse to lock up 20 members of the opposition People's Democratic Party (HDP) who are likely vote against the reform bill.

Erdogan's plan for constitutional reform were of course initially defeated in June 2015 when his Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) failed to win a Parliamentary majority. It was at this point that Erdogan decided to start bombing the PKK ending the ceasefire and re-starting the war.

In response the two other Turkish political party's - the fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Kemalist Republican Peoples Party (CHP) - have fallen in lock step behind Erdogan effectively turning Turkey into a one party state.

The fact this bombing targeted police at a Besiktas match is also quite interesting. Besikta's main local rival are Fenerbahce. As with Rangers and Celtic in Scotland the derby games between the two are the stuff of hooligan legend.

As a much younger man Erdogan was actually a trainee at Fenerbahce. As a result many of the hardcore Besiktas fans known as; "Ultras" absolutely despise Erdogan on that principle alone. When Erdogan formally opened the Besiktas stadium back on April 10th (10/4/16) many of the Besiktas Ultras were disgusted and boycotted the event.

As such the bombing seems to have been staged specifically to get the Besiktas Ultras to finally rally behind Erdogan. In part by showing that they too are under threat and need Erdogan to protect them. Also there are some who may actually be quite pleased by the fact that Erdogan has killed 42 police officers.

Erdogan is of course all too aware of the problems that football Ultras can cause for dictators such as himself.

Back in January 2011 the Ultras of Egypt's football clubs - particularly in the capital Cairo - agreed a temporary truce amongst themselves. These men who are very adept at outwitting and fighting with the police joined forces with the political dreamers and much of Egypt's general population to overthrow the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.

Along with the Bosporus Strait Egypt is also hugely important in the history of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan is desperate to recreate.

On August 24th 1516 the burgeoning Ottoman Empire defeated the Mamluk Empire in the battle of Dabiq Meadow. The scene of that battle is actually located within Garvaghy Road. The Mamluk Empire was based in what is now modern Egypt. So with victory at Dabiq the Ottoman Empire took control of the Mamluk Empire and stretched itself across the Middle-East and North Africa.

So when Mubarak fell Erdogan saw an opportunity to build the new Ottoman Empire he dreams of by installing a Islamist puppet regime in the form of Mohamed Morsi. In response Egypt's football Ultras again united with the nation's idealists to overthrow the Morsi dictatorship in July 2013.

Erdogan has been extremely angry about that ever since both arming terror groups to attack Egypt and desperately trying to spread the lie that Morsi was overthrown by a military coup.

One of Erdogan's main tools in this effort is a former Al Jazeera 'journalist' Sherine Tadros who later went to work for the Sky News. So great have been the lies that Tadros has told on Erdogan's behalf she's actually been blacklisted by every western news agency as a terrorist propagandist.

Strangely then Amnesty International have decided to employ Tadros as their liaison to the UN. Bear that in mind the next time you read an Amnesty International press release.

With the wind back in his sails Erdogan struck again on Sunday (11/12/16).

This time with the bombing of the Coptic Christian Cathedral in Cairo which has killed at least 25 people. This came hot on the heels of a bombing Friday (9/12/16) at a police checkpoint on the main Cairo to Giza road that killed 6.

As with all the previous terror attacks these latest bombings are intended to undermine public confidence in the Egyptian security forces.

The idea being to destabilise the Egyptian state in order to ferment a Turkish backed Islamist takeover of the country.

18:06 on 12/12/16 (UK date).