Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 1, Day 3.

This should be read as a direct continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-1_22.html

There I think I'd just got up to the point where German authorities had announced that they'd arrested a Pakistani asylum seeker over Monday's (19/12/16) terror attack in Berlin.

I'd then explained how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan had been trying to intimidate Pakistan into giving him nuclear weapons. I also explained how the US has indicated its support for using the strategy of the Balkan wars in the 1990's - Balkanisation - to help Erdogan absorb parts of Syria into the new Ottoman Empire he is hoping to build.

Then on Tuesday (20/12/16) evening German authorities announced that they'd released their Pakistani suspect having cleared him of any wrong doing. That raised obvious questions about the relevance of everything I'd written about the suspect being Pakistani.

On Wednesday (21/12/16) German authorities announced that they'd found fingerprints and identity documents belonging to another man in the truck used in the attack.

From what I know of police tactics I suspect this evidence was found within a matter of hours of the attack. However I also know that it can be extremely useful to the police to have everybody reporting that the suspect is in custody and the manhunt is over. It certainly gives them the element of surprise as the manhunt continues.

So while I think that the German police did genuinely arrest this Pakistani man in good faith thinking he could be the attacker I also think they may have had held onto him for a little longer then was needed in order to provide a cover story. As part of that cover story it was Germany who was raising the issues of Pakistan and US support for the Balkanisation of Syria that I'd mentioned.

With there being quite the delay between the Pakistani suspect being released and any explanation as to why being offered I think in their cover story the Germans were attempting to raise what has been a big domestic issue in both Germany and within the European Union (EU).

In the summer of 2015 German Chancellor (Head of Government) Angela Merkel threw her nation's borders wide open to anyone from anywhere in the World seeking refugee status.

In Chancellor Merkel's defence this really her only mistake in 11 years as Germany's leader. However it is an absolutely massive one forcing the Germany security services to identify and resolve a massive growth in terrorist threats to the nation.

What has unsettled a lot of people is that despite all the evidence Chancellor Merkel has not been prepared to admit that she has made one mistake and apologise for that one mistake. Instead she's been desperately trying to cover up any evidence of what a mistake she has made.

The prime example of this was the July 18th (18/7/16) Wurzburg train attack. Here a teenage asylum seeker from Pakistan attacked passengers aboard a train wounding five.

Germany immediately denied that this was in any way a terror attack or related to Chancellor Merkel's mistake. Then the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) released a video in which the attacker announced that he was about to carry out the attack in the name of the group. This not only made it impossible to deny that this was a terror attack it also showed how ISIL was radicalising people and then directing their attacks over the Internet.

Then of course there was the July 22nd (22/7/16) attack at the Olympic Shopping Mall in Munich. Here an Iranian Muslim immigrant shot and killed nine people and wounded four others.

This occurred on the site of the Black September group's very famous terror attack on the 1972 Munich Olympics. It occurred two weeks to the day before the start of the 2016 Rio Olympics in Brazil. It rapidly emerged that the attacker was deeply into both computer games and the Internet's so-called "Dark Web." As the Wurzburg attack showed ISIL's use of particularly the Dark Web has been of growing concern to those attempting to defeat them.

So the Munich shooting bore all the hallmarks of not only an ISIL terror attack but one that had been closely held and precisely directed.

However the German authorities denied and continue to deny that it was a terror attack. They did this before they'd had time to search through the vast amount of the attacker's encrypted electronic communications. So Germany's assessment that this was not a terror attack is based entirely on their refusal to look for any links to terrorism.

At one point the Germans even tried to claim that the Persian Muslim attacker was a white supremacist neo-Nazi inspired by Anders Breivik. This was done deliberately to shout down anyone suggesting that terrorist - no matter what their stripe - may in fact be quite dangerous people by declaring anyone to make that point to be a racist.

So given the track record quite a lot of people would find it extremely easy to believe that Chancellor Merkel would order the release of a terrorist simply because she didn't want to be accused of racism or admit to her mistake.

Obviously the German authorities have been using their cover story to lobby for more powers to fight terrorism. This presents what is known as a moral hazard. If we give the security services more power to fight terrorism it actually gives them an incentive to support terrorists making us all less safe.

The German authorities have since identified the suspect whose fingerprints and identity documents were found in the truck as Anis Amri. A 24 year old originally from Tataounie, Tunisia.

Although I know far more about geography and Islamist terrorism than I do about the "Star Wars" movie franchise I bet that had a lot of people going; "What?! Really?!" 

Amri first entered Europe as an irregular migrant landing in the Italian island of Lampedusa in 2011. There he fraudulently claimed to be a child and applied for political asylum (refugee status).

While his asylum application was being processed Amri was housed in an irregular migrant reception and accommodation centre. There he participated in what is being described as a particularly violent riot which led to him serving four years in prison.  

Upon release in 2015 Amri appears to have travelled to Germany where he appears to have applied for political asylum six times using multiple names and nationalities. While waiting for those multiple applications to be processed Amri was apparently left free to roam the streets of Germany dealing drugs and getting into bar fights. He also came under police surveillance due to his links to Islamist terrorism but no action was taken.

As such I think it is fair to describe Amri as being a "Frequent Flier" on what is termed the Mediterranean migrant route. This runs across the Mediterranean Sea from north African nations - particularly Libya - to the Italian islands such as Lampedusa and the island state of Malta.

Since March 2016 the European Union (EU) has had an agreement with Turkey covering irregular migrants on what is termed the Balkan route. This runs across the Aegean Sea from Turkey to Greece and then up through the Balkan nations to Germany where Chancellor Merkel has invited everybody in.

On November 24th (24/11/16) the European Parliament voted to suspend negotiations with Turkey over it joining the EU. Since then Erdogan has been threatening to once again flood the EU with irregular migrants and terrorists via the Balkan route. By highlighting the Mediterranean route Erdogan also appears to be threatening to use that route to flood the EU with irregular migrants and terrorists unless his demands are met.

Tunisia was of course the first Arab nation to overthrow their dictator in January 2011. They were rapidly followed by Egypt later that same month. The wars against Libya and Syria that followed were not part of the revolutionary movement. Instead they were designed to crush it ending any hope of a democratic Arab world.

For example as I've said throughout rather than the war and the chaos that has followed I think it would have been better for Libya if Muammer Qaddafi has simply stepped aside and his son Saif al-Islam be allowed to manage a transition to democracy.

Likewise the main problem in Syria seems to be that Bashar al-Assad is far more committed to the idea of a transition to democracy then any of the terror groups fighting him. As a result he's often made the mistake of trying to negotiate when he should have been using extreme violence to win the war. If you are shocked by the current moderate violence in Syria you really have no idea what it means to go to war.

Beyond the wars against Libya and Syria there is also a constant battle going on to protect the democratic gains made in Tunisia and in particular Egypt.

Initially Erdogan tried to install the Islamist puppet regime of Mohammed Morsi in Egypt to make it part of the new Ottoman Empire. However in July 2013 the Egyptian people decided that they didn't want to be part of the new Ottoman Empire and kicked Morsi out of power. Since then Erdogan has been backing terrorist groups - particularly ISIL's Sinai Province - to wage a low-intensity war to overthrow Egypt's secular state.

In Tunisia the gains of the revolution seem equally vulnerable.

One of the main problems in Tunisia is that as part of their war against Tunisia's neighbour Libya various foreign powers led by then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton set up numerous Islamist terrorist training camps across the country. When Muammer Qaddafi was overthrown those training camps were simply left in place giving Islamist terrorists a solid base from which to try and destabilise Tunisia's secular state.

Another big problem in Tunisia is that the economy has not grown in the way that many hoped it would following the revolution. This has been caused in no small part by the damage the terrorist training camps have done to the tourism sector. For example since the June 26th 2015 (26/6/15) terror attack in Sousse the UK has banned tourists from visiting Tunisia.

As a result the Tunisian government has being forced to introduce a program of austerity cutting wages and raising taxes. This means we are once again starting to see the sort of mass protests that led to the 2011 revolution.

On December 15th (15/12/16) a man by the name of Mohammed al-Zawari was shot and killed outside his home in the Tunisian town of Sfax. Widely believed to an Israeli assassination of a member of Hamas this has provided Islamist factions within Tunisia to stir up more public anger against a government they accuse of failing to protect a Tunisian from the evil Zionists.

Both when he was released from prison in Italy and when his final asylum application was rejected in Germany attempts were made to deport Amri back to Tunisia. However as they were unable to prove that Amri was a Tunisian national Tunisia quite reasonably refused to accept to him. After all they don't want foreign terrorists any more than we do.

By contacting his family back in Tunisia the Germans however were able to establish that Amri was a Tunisian citizen and back in July started the long process of applying for a new passport and then getting that passport sent to Germany. By an unfortunate coincidence that passport arrived in Germany on Tuesday (20/12/16) - the day after the attack. Given how many of these what are complex cases the Tunisians have to process I think it was just a coincidence

However I think that Erdogan was hoping that German authorities would accuse the Tunisian authorities of deliberately delaying the sending out of the new passport in order to allow Amri to carry out the attack. They would then respond by trashing Tunisia's reputation in the press, banning German tourists from the country and imposing sanctions.

Sadly the EU has a bit of a track record for this sort of thing.

On January 25th (25/1/16) Italian student Giulio Regeni went missing in Cairo, Egypt. His body was discovered on February 3rd (3/2/16). Despite the fact that the body was found in a dumping ground used by Erdogan backed terror groups the EU and in particular Italy absolutely went for the Egyptian government accusing the government of committing the murder, trashing the nation in the press and even threatening sanctions.

It seemed that nobody in Italy or the EU could even entertain the idea that maybe the terrorists Erdogan backs had committed the murder specifically to provoke such a reaction. Nor could they even entertain the idea that maybe he'd been murdered by criminals who were simply trying obtain his bank details in order to rob him.

Instead the EU and Italy became utterly fixated on the idea that Regeni must have been murdered by the Egyptian government. Because that's what Erdogan was telling them had happened.

Rather than repeating those mistakes in the Amri case I think the question Germans should be asking themselves is why wasn't he being held in prison while awaiting deportation?

After all by rejecting his asylum claim Germany had concluded that Amri had committed the criminal offence of illegally entering the country.

This morning - at around 0:300 local time - Amri was stopped by police officers in the Italian city of Milan where he no doubt felt comfortable. After being challenged to identify himself Amri pulled out a pistol and started a gun fight which he promptly lost. He was confirmed killed this morning.

In terms of analysis there's not much more I can add to that.

However at around 16:20 on 23/12/16 (UK date) I'll be back to cover some other developments overnight.

Edited at around 17:30 on 23/12/16 (UK date) to add;

Last night German authorities announced that they had foiled another terror attack. This time against the Centro Shopping Mall - I think the nation's largest - in the city of Oberhausen.

The two brothers arrested have been described as; "Kosovan." However there is no further information as to whether that means they are Serbs from that nation's southern province or part of the group of thieving Albanian Muslim extremists who are currently trying to take a bite out of Macedonia.

I think though we can safely add the Balkanisation of Syria to the list of Erdogan's demands. Mind you we could have done that last week with no help from the French. Erdogan has even started referring to Aleppo City's civilian population as; "Aleppans." As if that was some sort of ethnic or national group.

Also last night ISIL released on the Internet a 19 minute video entitled; "The Cross Shield."

This video was almost immediately removed from the Internet. Not only that but in response large sections of the Internet were then removed from Turkey. Western news outlets like the BBC and CNN have barely been prepared to acknowledge that the video exists let alone report on it. As a result I have not seen it for myself.

However the video is said to show two Turkish servicemen being burned alive. This is said to be punishment for the "Euphrates Shield" operation which is how Turkey refers to it's invasion and occupation of northern Syria. ISIL claims this operation is "burning Muslims." The two men are believed to be intelligence officers working for the Turkish Gendarmerie which is responsible for border security.

That may well be why western news outlets are refusing to report on the video.

To do so would force them to admit this "popular rebellion against the Assad regime" they've been reporting on for the past five years is in fact nothing more than a Turkish war against Syria. They would also be forced to acknowledge that Turkey's border with Syria has already moved 5 to 10km (3-6miles) inside of Syrian territory.

This latest video is of very similar to the video; "Healing the Believer's Chests" that ISIL released in January 2015. In that video they burned alive captured Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasabeh.

On Sunday (18/12/16) there was a terror attack in the Jordanian city of Karak. Here 10 people were killed as gunmen took hostages in the city's old castle which is now a tourist destination. I can see why - even though they've claimed responsibility for it - ISIL would remain very interested in this.

However it is not a topic I am prepared to discuss further until the US has an administration capable of holding a grown up conversation. Their outgoing one remains trapped in the redundant thinking that a Turk can speak for all Arabs.

You may remember that Erdogan has recently had some problems with the Turkish Gendarmerie.

Particularly the 2014 MIT scandal. On January 1st 2014 (1/1/14) and again on January 19th (19/1/16) the Gendarmerie stopped MIT trucks smuggling weapons to Al Qaeda in Syria. Erdogan's response was particularly furious ordering the arrest of many members of the Gendarmerie, local Judges and any journalist who dared to report on the story.

You may also remember that Erdogan has recently had some problems with Turkey's Kurdish population. At least one of the serviceman - Seftar Tas - is/was Kurdish.

Therefore it is entirely possible that Erdogan authorised ISIL to set fire to these two Turkish servicemen.

Aside from settling old scores Erdogan's reason for doing this would be twofold;

Firstly Erdogan has just assassinated a Russian Ambassador and carried out a mass casualty terror attack in Germany. It would certainly help him try to deny this on the international level if Turkey too was seen to suffer an ISIL atrocity.

Following Tuesday's (20/12/16) meeting in Moscow, Russia on Wednesday (21/12/16) Turkish forces launched a final push to capture to Syrian town of al-Bab. In launching this operation back in August Erdogan's objectives were twofold; To establish a supply line to ISIL in Raqqa and to establish a supply line to the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City.

On December 12th (12/12/16) Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest. Erdogan now has two options. He can either try to smash through Syrian lines at Aleppo City or he can get ISIL to establish a supply line from Raqqa to Army of Conquest positions in south of Aleppo City via Palmyra.

That second option is militarily going to be hard work and politically extremely difficult.

Annoyingly at around 18:35 on 23/12/16 (UK date) the dinner I put in the oven an hour ago is now starting to burn. So I'll pick this up later.

Edited at around 20:25 on 23/12/16 (UK date) tidy up and add;

You could almost say that the Euphrates Shield operation is at a crossroads. And Erdogan is really not happy about that.

The Jordanian response to the murder of Muath al-Kasabeh was, as you would expect, furious. At one point King Abdullah II pulled on his old flight suit and announced that he personally was going to start bombing ISIL in revenge.

Funnily enough nobody in the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - was prepared to argue with them. So Jordan got to take whatever they wanted off the Air Tasking Order (ATO) and blow it up. Under US President Obama CJTFOIR's problem has always been that it's got more aircraft than ISIL targets it's permitted to bomb.

Erdogan has of course time and time flatly refused to allow Turkey to join CJTFOIR's ATO. However I assume he was expecting to receive similar treatment to the Jordanians.

So with nobody prepared to stop him in light of this great ISIL atrocity Erdogan thought he would have been free to send Turkish jets to smash their way through Syrian lines at what I am going to insist on calling; "Drumcree Church."

21:10 on 23/12/16 (UK date).