Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 1, Day 2.

This should be read as a continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-1.html

In those previous two posts I explained how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been desperate to find out where he stands following the November 8th (8/11/16) Presidential election.

With President Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton having been defeated Erdogan is understandably concerned this could mean an end to the support and protection he's enjoyed under Obama.

Erdogan's concerns were obviously added to on November 24th (24/11/16) when the European Parliament voted to suspend talks with Turkey over it's plan's to join the European Union (EU).

On December 12th (12/12/16) the northern Syrian city of Aleppo was liberated from the Al Qaeda-led, Turkish-backed Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) terrorist coalition.

This development seems to have tipped Erdogan over the edge from mere threats into violence.

On Monday (19/12/16) Erdogan sent one of his personal police bodyguards to assassinate the Russian Ambassador to Turkey in an Ankara art gallery.

Literally three hours after that a hijacked truck drove through crowds of pedestrians at a Christmas market in the Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, Germany. So far this attack which has been claimed by the Army of Conquest's main ally - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - has killed 12 people and left another 49 people injured - some very seriously.

This was very obviously an attack at the heart of Europe. Therefore it shows that not only is Erdogan prepared to issue threats he is prepared to follow through on them.

Apart from being an attack on Europe this was very clearly an attack on the heart of Germany.

In the summer of 2015 the German Head of Government (Chancellor) Angela Merkel threw her nation's doors open to all those seeking refugee status from anywhere in the World but particularly Syria.

In making this bold announcement Merkel didn't bother consulting with any of Germany's European neighbours. Nor did she seem to give a single thought to the logistics of accommodating that many asylum seekers. Particularly not security screening to make sure that they are not terrorists.

As a result since the summer of 2015 Merkel's popularity both at home and aboard has been in a nosedive.

Germany will be going to the polls in a national election in August 2017 at the earliest and October 2017 at the latest. You would expect that a mass casualty terror attack carried by what has since been found to be a fraudulent asylum seeker would do significant damages to Merkel's chances of re-election.

So beyond being an attack on Europe and Germany generally this was a very specific threat to Angela Merkel: Give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will end your career.

The truck used in the attack was registered in Germany's immediate neighbour Poland.

Due to the EU freetrade zone that Erdogan is desperate to access it is perfectly normal for a truck to pick up goods in one EU member state and then drive them to a warehouse on completely the other side of the EU without any import/export tariffs or border inspections. As a result this could be a coincidence simply reflecting the fact that truck was the easiest to hijack.

However I think it was intended as a reference to the sanctions that have been imposed upon Russia. These sanctions were of course imposed to punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL and the JAF in Syria and Iraq.

The US and the EU obviously couldn't say that they were imposing sanctions in support of ISIL and the JAF. After all that would be in violation of numerous UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions along with domestic US and EU laws.

So what the US has done is start a civil war in the broad geographic area east of Poland that used to be known as "Ukraine" in order to provide an excuse for these sanctions in support of ISIL and the JAF.

These sanctions and the continuing violence in what is now more properly known as ISIL's Shamali (northern) Province that is being used to justify them are extremely important to Erdogan.

Basically Russian President Putin has given up on the idea of trade with either the US or the EU for the foreseeable future. So instead he's decided to focus on growing the Russian economy by trading with its immediate neighbours. This includes Turkey. As they often do these trade links make it less likely that Russia and Turkey will go to war over Erdogan's support for ISIL and the JAF.

A large part of the Russian economy are natural gas exports to EU nations whose economies rely on what are to them imports. The problem is that the junta in charge of Shamali Province has this nasty habit of simply stealing that gas from the pipelines before it reaches the EU.

This has forced Russia to find a new route to supply the EU with gas. As no-one's going to go tunnelling under the Black Sea that means Turkey and the proposed Turkish Stream pipeline. Again this makes it less likely that Russia and Turkey will go to war over Erdogan's support for ISIL and the JAF.

Incoming US President Donald Trump was elected on a mandate to defeat ISIL and the Army of Conquest. Not to fight for them like Obama did. Therefore it is unlikely that US sanctions on Russia will continue.

In fact Trump has already announced as his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. An expert in the oil and gas industry Tillerson actually signed a USD300bn deal with Russian oil giant Rosneft which had to be suspended because of the sanctions. That could well be a sign that these sanctions won't make it as far as February 2017.

If and when the US scraps its sanctions against Russia that raises the question of whether the EU will continue its sanctions.

The EU's main diplomatic effort to resolve the Shamali Province crisis allowing the Ukrainian nation to be reestablished is known as; "The Normandy Four." This process very noticeably excludes Obama and the US. Therefore I think that it is unlikely that EU sanctions on Russia will continue without the US.

The problem is going to be Poland. Their Justice & Law Party (PiS) is increasingly sharing the anti-Russian neo-Nazi ideology that is causing all the problems in Shamali Province.

Therefore there is likely to be some coming tension between Poland and the rest of the EU on the issue of sanctions against Russia.

At around 18:25 on 22/12/16 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:40 on 22/12/16 (UK date) to add;

The Breitscheidplatz where the attack took place is a very important location within Berlin. It marked the centre of West Berlin when both the city and the German nation were divided in two during the Cold War. At it's centre is the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church.

This was built by the German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1891 in honour of his grandfather - Kaiser Wilhelm I. Wilhelm II was of course the Emperor that led Germany during the First World War. The German Empire's main ally during that war was the Ottoman Empire. Defeat in that war of course led to the fall of both of those empires.

As such an attack at this location seemed to be an attempt to remind the faithful of the power of the Ottoman Empire and a promise that Erdogan will soon build a new Ottoman Empire.

Also I may be over thinking this but it also seems to touch on the complex issue of war reparations.

Erdogan's big threat to the EU has been that unless he's allowed to do exactly as he pleases he will once again flood Europe with irregular migrants/refugees. Hidden amongst them will be terrorists instructed to carry out attacks just like this one.

If that were to happen the first thing the EU should do is simply stop paying for the millions of Syrians currently living in Turkey. Despite all his claims of support for the Syrian people Erdogan flatly refuses to classify these people as refugees.

The second thing the EU should do is move to make Turkey pay to support all the irregular migrants/refugees it has sent to Europe. Particularly the security costs.

Also as has been pointed out at length during the liberation of Aleppo City Erdogan's now nearly six year war against Syria has done extensive damage to the nation's infrastructure. Traditionally in a war the losing side pays for all the damage.

Due to the liberation of Aleppo City Erdogan is now looking very much like the losing side in this war. That along with the fact that Erdogan's war was completely illegal to begin with makes Turkey liable for an absolutely massive reparations bill.

The issue of war reparations is one that I'm sure every German has been taught about at school.

Following the German Empire's defeat in the First World War the victors imposed crippling reparations in the 1919 Treaty of Versailles. In his rise to power Adolf Hitler used the issue of these preparations as an example of how this once great nation and had been utterly humiliated and thus needed a strong leader named Adolf Hitler.

Following the defeat of Hitler's Third Reich (Realm/Empire) in 1945 the victors were keen not to repeat the same mistake. So rather than imposing massive reparations on Germany the victors - primarily the US - actually paid to rebuild Germany under the Marshall Plan. Great steps were also taken not to humiliate the German people in defeat.

For example in 1945 a British documentary was made about the holocaust called "Night Will Fall." Using footage shot during the liberation of the death camps this shows the true horror of an actual holocaust. However the film was not released until 2014 over fears it would stir up hatred against the German people.

Likewise the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church was damaged in a 1943 airstrike. However the victors chose not to demolish it and even let it keep its original name as a memorial to Germany's war dead.

As he seems to face defeat in Syria I think it's clear that Erdogan would much prefer a Marshall Plan rather than a Treat of Versailles.

However I say I might be over thinking this because surely Erdogan must know the price of a Marshall Plan; The dictator commits suicide, his deputies are tried and executed for crimes against humanity and the victors are allowed to militarily occupy the defeated nation for as long as they like.

Initially the German authorities announced that they had caught the attacker and identified him as an asylum seeker from Pakistan - specifically the Balochistan province.

As you would expect from a man who is trying to build the next Islamist Caliphate Erdogan has been very keen to portray himself as one of the leaders of the global assembly of Muslims - the "Jumu'ah" in Arabic. Through this he has tried to build very strong links with Muslims in Pakistan.

If there's a terror attack in Turkey or Pakistan you will see lots of Muslims on social media offering their sympathy to the respective country. However they're not doing that to another nation but to their brother Muslims who they see as part of one nation.

As he threatens to fight Syria, Iraq, Russia, the EU and the US Erdogan is obviously very keen to exploit this notion of Muslim brotherhood to get access to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. In fact by invoking the Peshawar school massacre Erdogan seemed to be threatening the Pakistani military; Either they give him nukes or he'll stage a popular uprising and steal them.

Pakistan's Balochistan province is a particularly interesting one.

As I seem to keep mentioning during the Cold War there was this sort of arc of resistance with various groups in different countries being united by the idea of Communism. The NATO nations combated this by establishing a network of extreme nationalist groups such as Combat 18. The successful groups such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) managed to cross the divide between Communism and nationalism.

Some of these nationalist groups claim to nationality are ridiculous. For example Combat 18 talk about the ancient Celtic Nation. This is something that was invented in Victorian times by people looking for an excuse to get drunk.

Obviously when the Cold War ended and Communism fell the arc of resistance pretty much fell apart. However the NATO nations just kept going.

The big example of this is the Balkan wars in the 1990's that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia.

In 1991 Yugoslavia was in the process of allowing what is now Croatia to peaceful cede from Yugoslavia in much the same way that the Czech Republic and Slovakia peacefully decided to go their separate ways. However this would have left Yugoslavia more or less intact which was clearly unacceptable to the US. So the US backed Croat Ultranationalists to withdraw from the talks starting the Croatian civil war.

Proving that only the victors get write history the Croatian civil war quickly became the Croatian war of independence and the horrors of the Balkan wars snowballed from there.

When it was all over where there had once stood one nation there were suddenly seven small nations. With small economies and small militaries these were very tasty little morsels that NATO could easily gobble up.

The current example of this process which has become known as; "Balkanisation" is of course Shamali Province. However with the ethnic Russian population symbolically restating the fact that they don't consent to being subject to a genocide by the US backed Slavic Ultranationalist who actual fought as part of the Waffen SS that example is perhaps a little warm.

A cooler recent example is Serbia's southern Kosovo province.  In 1998 then US President Bill Clinton was indicted for perjury - lying under oath. So to get him out from under the scandal the US backed Albanian Ultranationalists to invade Serbia. Ever since then the US has been trying to convince us there's a nation called; "Kosovo."

If you're looking for a movie reference "Wag the Dog" seems particularly appropriate to so many current events. However if pop music is more your thing check out the current Rita Ora, Bebe Rehxa, Dua Lipa triangle.

In the wake of the liberation of Aleppo City US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power indicated the US' support for a Balkanisation of Syria in Iraq - known to everyone else as the new Ottoman Empire - by suggesting on Twitter that Serbia's Kosovo province be given its own international dialling code.

In responding to this I got into a bit of a tangle with one of Ambassador Power's acolytes. After all I felt the need for a bit of weekend sport.

With Ambassador Power frequently needing to have explained to her UN discussions about things like South Sudan and Gambia I think you can guess how this went for her intern. My highlight was when she claimed the Nazi holocaust had nothing to do with the Nazi holocaust.

Obviously I put a stop to that as the severity of the Berlin attack started to sink in. I hope to get back to it though. I feel we were just on the verge of her trying to cite "The Da Vinci Code" as credible evidence of a Kosovan nation.

Balochistan is an example of one of these fake nationalist movements. Primarily it's been used by the US to exert pressure on Iran. However recently it seems to be getting used more and more to exert pressure on Pakistan suggesting Erdogan's influence.

However the following day (20/12/16) the German authorities released their Pakistani suspect and I assume apologised for describing his as a suspect.

So while all I've just written on the subject might be true it might not be relevant.

Of course German authorities then announced that they'd immediately found the fingerprints and identity documents of another suspect in the truck. I will have to deal with that tomorrow.

However I will say that from a policing perspective it's incredibly helpful for all the World's media to be reporting that the suspect is in custody and the manhunt is over. While you're kicking in the front door of the actual suspect.

21:35 on 22/12/16 (UK date).