The Big Fat F.

Since April 17th (17/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been progressively escalating his attacks against forces fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) both in Syria and Iraq.

The most violent day came on Tuesday (25/4/17).

Here the Turkish Air Force under Erdogan's instruction conducted airstrikes close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq. These strikes killed five members of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and five members of the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who are one of the militia's that make up the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Erdogan coordinated his attacks against Sinjar/Shingal with no fewer than 20 airstrikes against the General Command centre of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in al-Malikiyah/Derik in north-east Syria. Apart from damaging the SDF's communications system these strikes killed 28 members of the SDF.

Erdogan's attacks have continued at a lower intensity on Wednesday (26/4/17) and Thursday (27/4/17) both in Iraq and Syria. There are no official reports of any attacks today (28/4/17). However there are strong rumours that the regular Turkish military attacked the SDF's Afrin Canton in north-west Syria this morning. Only for the SDF to repel the attack destroying five Turkish tanks in the process.

During this period of heightened aggression US President Donald Trump has been notably absent.

Trump seems to have dedicated much of the last two weeks to undoing his early successes in responding to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North). Now he seems focused on signing executive orders to appear on TV as much as possible ahead of his 100th day in office (29/4/17).

This last pursuit is particularly troubling. A President's 100th day in office is of no value whatsoever. It is simply a trash anniversary made up to give the trash media something to cover.

For example regarding the DPRK only failure can be delivered immediately. Success will take years if not decades.

The spectacle of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson chairing an open United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the DPRK as part of Trump's 100 Day Spectacular is particularly unedifying.

From a mountain of experience we known what normally happens is response to Erdogan's aggression in Syria is that the US relies on  Russia to swoop in and save them.

For example on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan sent the Turkish airforce to strike US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with the SDF at the Syrian town of Manbij. The US response was to call up Russia and beg Russia to use the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism to get Erdogan to stop the strikes.

The Astana Ceasefire Mechanism is currently a particularly sensitive issue between Erdogan and Russia. Therefore the US has not had the option of relying on Russia to solve the problem.

Instead it has fallen on other nations to exert pressure on Erdogan on the US' behalf. Chief amongst them has been the UK.

At precisely 13:22 (14:22 local) yesterday (27/4/17) there was a security incident in Whitehall - the street at the heart of the UK's government sector. The security services had an Islamist terrorist - Khalid Mohamed Omar Ali - under surveillance. However rather than quietly raiding his home the police kept him under surveillance until they could arrest him in one of the most high profile places possible.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) there was a much more serious security incident in the area when Khalid Masood killed 5 people in a run-over and stabbing terror attack. This was done to intimidate the UK into obeying Erdogan and supporting ISIL.

As such yesterday (27/4/17) incident was intended to mock Trump's apparent cowardice in suddenly deciding he's going to obey Erdogan and support ISIL. Although from a legal perspective Ali posed a threat he was being so closely monitored by the security services you would say that he did not in any way represent a credible threat.

Also yesterday (27/4/17) the UK announced that so-called "Marine A" - Alexander Blackman - would suddenly be freed from prison today (28/4/17).

When Erdogan sent regular Turkish troops to invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of Syria in August 2016 they were led by Turkey's very special forces who wear a maroon beret as part of their uniform. The maroon beret is also worn by the UK's Parachute Regiment. Although not SOF's the Parachute Regiment are an elite force. However not as elite as their arch rivals and natural enemy the UK Navy's Marine Commandos who wear the green beret.

Announcing that the maroon beret's natural enemy is out today is the UK sending the message that Erdogan's forces need to be out of Syria today. Not in the middle of May nor at the start of June. Today.

There was also another security incident in the UK yesterday (27/4/17). The Scottish National Party (SNP) were sent several packages containing a white crystalline substance. Similar to Cocaine or more accurately Crack Cocaine.

Aside from Trump's silence Erdogan's aggression has received a strange response from President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani. Despite five Peshmerga being killed Barzani has all but praised Erdogan claiming that the presence of anti-ISIL forces left Erdogan no option other than to attack the Kurdish Region.

Barzani's reasons for this position are well known. He's got this idea into his head that if he can export oil through Turkey he can declare Iraqi's Kurdish Region to be a nation state independent of Iraq. What will happen is that Erdogan will immediately block those oil revenues and then invade Iraq's Kurdish Region as part of his new Ottoman Empire.

In support of Barzani's Crack Pipe Plan some Iraqi Kurds have looked at the SNP and their plans for a Scottish Independence referendum as inspiration. The problem is that the SNP are considered a joke of British politics. They exist merely as the plaything of the Conservative Party.

The UK's 2015 General Election was a strange one. Almost immediately afterwards the new government laid out an economic plan that was pretty word-for-word the election manifesto of the Labour Party. However it was delivered by a Conservative government.

So the Labour Party had pulled of that amazing trick of winning the political argument but still managing to lose the election.

This was almost entirely the result of then Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron's performance in the televised election debates. He claimed that a vote for the Labour Party would lead to a coalition between the Labour Party and the SNP. This massively boosted support for the SNP while trashing support for the Labour Party and boosting support for the Conservative Party.

So what we ended up with was a Conservative government and the SNP and the Labour disunited as a completely ineffective opposition.

The SNP's latest call for an independence referendum is also entirely the result of similar Conservative Party trickery.

In the days leading up to the SNP calling for a referendum the Conservatives put around the rumour that current Prime Minister Theresa May would trigger Britain leaving the European Union (EU) - the "Brexit" - on March 13th (13/3/17). This tricked SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon into announcing the referendum on that day in an effort to steal Prime Minister May's thunder.

Brexit was actually triggered on March 30th (30/3/17). The Scottish Independence Referendum is a crucial part of Prime Minister May's negotiation strategy.

At the referendum the SNP will present Scottish Independence as a way for Scots to ensure a better relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This forces the EU to give the UK a much better Brexit deal or face being forced to deal with the SNP. No-one wants to deal with the SNP.

So if Barzani is planning on modelling himself on the SNP he's clearly very badly out of his depth. Or smoking Crack Cocaine.

The Whitehall incident also served as a little warning to the UK media who seem to be using the upcoming General Election to hide away from real news. This presents a problem.

I mean can you imagine how confused the nation would be if it woke up one day to discover the UK military had conducted strikes against Erdogan's forces in Syria and nobody knew why because the media had failed to report on the weeks of mounting tension?

Trump's gross dereliction of duty has also forced Israel to step up to the mark.

The conflict within Syria obviously puts Israel in an extremely difficult position. Groups like ISIL are viciously anti-Semitic. Therefore there is nothing they would like more than to be able to tell their supporters they are fighting a religious war against the evil Zionist state. This has forced Israel to take a position of strict neutrality throughout the six year conflict.

However as former US President Barack Obama never seemed to grasp Israel is located right next to Syria. The two nations are technically still at war with each other.

Therefore Israel has to very closely monitor events in Syria as if they were a matter of its survival. Lately Israel has taken to discussing events in Syria in terms of their concerns over Iranian influence in both Syria and Iraq.

The problem is that even at the domestic level no-one in Israeli politics ever says exactly what they mean. The long running example is the issue of public transport on the Sabbath.

Jewish law forbids people from working - including riding in vehicles - on the Sabbath. Therefore public transport does not run in Israel on the Sabbath. This is obviously extremely annoying for Israelis who aren't particularly religious or even Jewish.

However demanding that public transport runs on the Sabbath would apparently be too simple. So instead people wanting public transport to run protest against government ministers using official vehicles on the Sabbath. This issue raised its head during Trump's inauguration when his daughter and Jewish convert Ivanka Trump was caught riding in a limousine on the Sabbath.

Unfortunately under Obama the US State Department became packed with people such as Hillary Clinton who are just too dim to comprehend this level of political sophistication. So for example when Israel started talking about Iran's nuclear program the Obama administration thought they were actually talking about Iran's nuclear program.

Sadly many of those people who were appointed to the State Department under Obama are still there. So where Israel's been talking about Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq those people have advised Trump that Israel actually means Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq.

Yesterday (27/4/17) Israel conducted airstrikes against Damascus airport in Syria destroying an Iranian weapons shipment. Apart from destroying weapons that one day may be used against them this allowed Israel to point out to the US that they've got the Iran issue covered. So the US had best stop trying to hide its failures behind them.

Later yesterday (27/4/17) Israel used its Patriot missile system to destroy a drone on its border with Syria.

The US-made Patriot missile is part of what is known as a High to Medium Air Defence (HIMAD) system. This is the type of weapons system the US should deploy and has already deployed to the Republic of Korea (RoK/South) and Japan to defend against DPRK missiles.

The Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) system the US is currently deploying to the RoK is utterly useless for the task. Trump seems to need to be reminded of that.

Obviously the fact that Israel has been forced to express an opinion on the conflict in Syria now risks strengthening groups like ISIL.

So I put absolutely no stock in a President's first 100 days. Instead I'm a firm believer in legendary West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt who said that politicians who have visions need to see a psychiatrist.

However if Trump is desperate for a public 100 day report card it is simply a big fat F. For Failure.

17:00 on 28/4/17 (UK date).

Edited at around 11:05 on 29/4/17 (UK date) to add;

Yesterday (28/4/17) I said that there were rumours of the SDF repelling yet another assault by Erdogan's forces on Afrin Canton. Those rumours have now been confirmed. However the attack did not take place on Afrin Canton. Instead it occurred around 370km (220 miles) east of Afrin Canton in the area of the town of Darbasiya.

This is much more serious.

Darbasiya sits around 270km (160 miles) east of the famous town of Kobane and around 190km (115 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq. It is deep within the roughly 15,000kmsq (9,000milesq) de facto safe-haven that the SDF have established which has been designated; "Shangri-La."

The attack comes despite US Marines stationed within Shangri-La conducting highly visible show of force patrols along the Syria/Turkey border within the Darbasiya area specifically to deter Erdogan's aggression.

Those US Marines were not involved in repelling Friday's (28/4/17). However Erdogan has pledged to take revenge on the SDF for destroying five Turkish tanks, a radar vehicle and two fighting positions in the process of repelling the attack.

So this is one of those situations where the Commander-in-Chief of the US military really needs a deliberate plan of action.

Erdogan's first step in this retaliation appears to be banning the website Wikipedia within Turkey over some unspecified; "Offensive Content." There are several possible explanations for Erdogan's conduct here.

Firstly it may be possible that Wikipedia are simply refusing to take down content Erdogan deems offensive. After all facts do tend to be Erdogan's worst enemy.

Secondly prior to July 2015 the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) were perfectly capable of conducting air operations against ISIL without the use of US Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk in Turkey. In the summer of 2015 Obama did a deal with Erdogan to allow the US to use its own airbase.

One of the conditions Erdogan imposed on this agreement was that CJTFOIR were no longer able to strike ISIL around their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa. At the time ISIL controlled a much larger area around Raqqa.

Another of the conditions was that I was blocked from following CJTFOIR on Twitter. The intention being to make it harder for me to report on the war against ISIL - particularly things like Erdogan banning CJTFOIR from conducting strikes against ISIL.

Therefore Erdogan could be shutting down Wikipedia to signal a further demand that I be forbidden from covering the fight against ISIL. Particularly Erdogan's attacks on forces fighting ISIL.

Thirdly it is possible that Erdogan is signalling that he is prepared to be compliant with the SDF and CJTFOIR. On the condition that what will be an embarrassing climbdown for him is not widely reported. Of course the first step in that path would be Erdogan himself declining to make statements about how he is going to take revenge against the SDF.

Also last night the DPRK conducted another missile test. Actual rocket scientists are currently trying to determine exactly how successful or otherwise that test was. However it was clearly conducted in response to the US provocative decision to hold a high profile UNSC meeting on the DPRK as part of Trump's 100 Day Spectacular.

So it seems pretty clear that Trump is being hyper-aggressive in an area where he needs to be extremely gentle and completely absent in an area where he needs to be hyper-aggressive. 

11:40 on 29/4/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 7.

On April 11th (11/4/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the Turkish military to conduct artillery strikes against the internationally backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in what is known as the Afrin Canton. This sits right in the north-west of Syria bordered by the towns of Azaz/Kilis to east and Syria's border with Turkey to the west.

Since then Erdogan has progressively escalated his attacks against forces fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). On April 20th (20/4/17) Erdogan instructed the Turkish Air Force to conduct airstrikes against the SDF in Afrin Canton. On April 21st (21/4/17) Erdogan expanded those strikes to include the Iraqi Kurdish Region.

Erdogan's aggression seemed to peak on Tuesday (25/4/17).

Here Erdogan instructed the Turkish Airforce to strike positions in Iraq belonging to both the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who are one of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal.

The town of Sinjar/Shingal is located on the western boundary of the current operation to liberate Mosul. It was the closure of the Sinjar to Tal Afar road on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) that marked Mosul finally being surrounded.

Erdogan's airstrikes succeeded in killing 5 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and 5 members of the YBS. They also wounded 9 members of the Peshmerga.

The bulk of Erdogan's aggression on Tuesday (25/4/17) though was reserved for the SDF. Backed by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) the SDF are currently fighting alongside US Marines and US Army Rangers to liberate the Syrian town of Tabqa from ISIL.

Despite this on Tuesday (25/4/17) Erdogan conducted no fewer then 20 airstrikes against the SDF in the town of al-Malikiyah/Derik which sits around 30km (18 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border. Specifically Erdogan struck the SDF's command centre that included the SDF's communications command. 28 members of the SDF were killed in these strikes.

Erdogan then went on to conduct a two pronged attack on the SDF's Afrin Canton. This included artillery fire from regular Turkish units located inside Turkey and a ground assault by members of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are currently occupying the area west of Afrin Canton known as; "Garvaghy Road."

These attacks stem entirely from Erdogan's failure to understand that he has absolutely no future in either Syria or Iraq. We are currently all waiting for him to withdraw his forces from both Syria and Iraq so we can proceed with defeating ISIL and starting a political transition within Syria.

Erdogan's current wont of understanding is the result of a mistake by US President Donald Trump. On April 18th (18/4/17) Trump inexplicably broke ranks and congratulated Erdogan on Turkey's April 16th (16/4/17) referendum.

At that point even Russia had only noted that the referendum had taken place. Rather than recognising the outcome of the referendum let alone congratulating anyone on victory.

In part of the effort to fluff Erdogan's ego before his expected announcement of the withdrawal of his forces from Syria and Iraq on April 15th (15/4/17) Russia on April 14th (14/4/17) informed Erdogan that they would be upholding the Astana Ceasefire. Whether this means the same to Erdogan as it does to Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently a very sensitive issue.

As a result the US cannot currently rely on Russia to bail it out from its latest failure. As is did when Erdogan conducted airstrikes against US troops in the Syrian town of Manbij on March 1st (1/3/17).

Due to Trump's failure Erdogan now not only doesn't understand that he has no future in either Syria or Iraq he believes he is in a position to invade and occupy both.

During his April 18th (18/4/17) telephone call with Trump Erdogan proposed replacing the SDF with regular Turkish forces. This would colonise a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000milesq) area of Syria from Azaz/Kilis north of the Euphrates River to Syria's border with Iraq as part of a greater Turkey.

On April 11th (11/4/17) CJTFOIR mistakenly killed 18 members of the SDF during the Tabqa operation. Specifically they killed 18 members of the Raqqa Hawks Brigade/Liwa Suqur al-Raqqa who are an Arab element of the SDF coalition.

Under former US President Barack Obama CJTFOIR had been attempting to group the Arab elements of the SDF into a rival command structure known as the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). The intention being that the SAC would break away from the SDF and pledge allegiance to Erdogan's UTA allowing Erdogan to colonise the roughly 15,000kmsq (9,000milesq) area under SDF control known as; "Shangri-La."

The April 11th (11/4/17) airstrikes was simply one of those mistakes that happen during war. However Erdogan clearly viewed it as a sign that CJTFOIR was now moving to remove the SAC elements from the SDF. So he conducted Tuesday's (25/4/17) airstrikes as a way to signal that he would not tolerate this and demand CJTFOIR remove the Kurdish elements of the SDF.

The US' response to Erdogan's attacks have been nothing short of shambolic.

In response to the strikes at Derik the US has neither said nor done anything. This is despite the attack occurring 6km (3.5 miles) from US ground troops and damaging the communication network of the coalition those US troops are fighting as part of.

In response to the airstrikes in Sinjar the US merely called on everyone to respect Iraq's sovereignty. This could be interpreted as a call on Erdogan to respect Iraq's sovereignty. Alternatively it could be viewed as an attempt to justify Erdogan's actions by accusing the YBS and Iran of undermining Iraq's sovereignty. Erdogan repeatedly attempts to justify his support for ISIL by accusing particularly Iran of interfering in both Iran and Syria.

In short the US gave us the sort of statement gives spokesperson gives when they don't understand what they want to say.

The US' response however seemed robust and competent compared to the response of President of Iraq's Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani. Even as his troops lay dying Barzani attempted to justify Erdogan's actions claiming that the YBS left Erdogan no option other then to attack the Kurdish Region.

I'm not being funny but this is type of behaviour you see from domestic violence victims. Rather then blaming the person who attacked them they always find an excuse for them such as it was their own fault for provoking them by burning the dinner or disturbing them while they were watching TV.

Sadly this is the type of behaviour we've come to expect from Barzani.

Erdogan of course launched his invasion of Syria's Garvaghy Road area in August 2016. However he originally attempted to launch this invasion back in December 2015. As part of the preparations Erdogan dispatched regular Turkish troops to the Bashiqa camp in Iraq between Mosul and the Kurdish Region.

Appreciating that Barzani was in no position to lead the calls for Erdogan to withdraw his troops from Iraq and global diplomatic effort was launched. This included the Arab League calling for Turkish troops to leave Iraq in December 2015. This led to the majority of those troops leaving.

The diplomatic effort continued until October 2016 - just before the start of the Mosul operation. The Iraqi Parliament had passed a resolution calling for Erdogan's troops to leave and the matter was being taken up by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

However Barzani then popped up to stab us all in the back by declaring that Turkish troops could stay in Bashiqa.

Then there is the Mosul operation itself. As victory creeps ever closer I'm starting to think about a comprehensive post covering all the things that were wrong with the Mosul operation. However if I were to sum it up it was simply launched at entirely the wrong time.

The starting gun for the Mosul operation was fired by those Turkish troops in the Bashiqa camp who started shelling Mosul on the night of October 15th (15/10/17). On October 16th (16/10/17) Barzani declared that the operation had begun. This gave the Iraqi government no option other than to start the operation on October 17th (17/10/17).

Six months later here we are. Still trying to turn the Mosul operation into a success.

Just yesterday (26/4/17) Barzani's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) were forced to deny they are expelling civilians displaced by fighting in Mosul from camps because the KRG has no plan to provide for them.

Barzani has of course also been an aggressive supporter of Erdogan's plans to expel the Kurdish elements from the SDF.

While Obama was building up the SAC Barzani was happily training the Roj Peshmerga force to attack the Kurdish elements of the SDF. As Erdogan launched his airstrikes on US troops in Manbij on March 1st (1/3/17) Barzani was sending the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS at Sinjar.

So I think Iraq's Kurds really need to ask themselves if Barzani can continue to represent them?

Not that Barzani would ever submit to something like an election.

Throughout the nearly three years the fight against ISIL has been going on Erdogan's violent outbursts are something we've come to expect. What normally happens is that he does something outrageous, everyone is outraged and Erdogan backs off for a couple of weeks at least.

What is alarming about this latest rampage is that Erdogan is showing no signs of stopping voluntarily.

The airstrikes against Iraq's Kurdish Region have continued and are continuing. As are the ground attacks against the SDF's Afrin Canton. Turkish aircraft continue to fly over Afrin Canton providing the constant threat of more airstrikes

Today (27/4/17) Erdogan also seems to have escalated with artillery strikes from Turkey against the town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. Located on Syria's border with Turkey this is in the middle of the Shangri-La area.

In his discussions both with Trump and Obama Erdogan has made it clear Tal Abyad is the area of Syria he wishes to invade next. In order to split the SDF controlled area in half opening up a new supply-line between Turkey and ISIL's de facto capital in Syria - Raqqa.

If Erdogan's aggression continues unchecked it raises serious questions over whether CJTFOIR can continue to fight against ISIL. Particularly whether the US can maintain a troop presence within Syria.

If the US and CJTFOIR is not prepared to do what needs to be done to ensure victory against ISIL then we are talking about a war without end with US troops constantly in danger both from ISIL and Erdogan.

16:45 on 27/4/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 5.

Operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remain focused on two main areas: The city of Mosul in Iraq and the town of Tabqa in Syria.

Tabqa sits around 40km (25 miles) west of ISIL de facto capital Raqqa on the southern banks of the Euphrates River. Its main strategic importance is the adjoining Tabqa Dam which stretches across the Euphrates to form Lake Assad.

On the night of March 21st (21/3/17) into March 22nd (22/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) supported by US Marines began an operation to liberate both Tabqa and Tabqa Dam.

The first stage of this operation saw the SDF airlifted across the Euphrates to a landing site around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With the SDF already holding positions at Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar) around 10km (6 miles) west of Tabqa on the northern banks of the Euphrates this started an SDF advance on Tabqa from both the north and the south.

On the northern front the SDF reached the Tabqa Dam complex on March 24th (24/3/17). This allowed them to send engineers to inspect the dam and confirm that it was structurally sound and open a spillway to reduce the water pressure on the dam from Lake Assad.

To the south the SDF's objective was to secure the area between their landing site and Tabqa Air Field before moving to besiege Tabqa on three sides. This was achieved on March 30th (30/3/17).

On April 15th (15/4/17) the SDF launched the liberation of Tabqa itself. On the first day they were able to liberate the Alexandria neighbourhood on the south-eastern side of the town. Also on the first day the SDF were able to liberate the Ayd as-Saghir neighbourhood on the south-western side of the town. By April 19th (19/4/17) the SDF were able to advance up the south-western side of Tabqa to the town's hotel which sits just south of the Third Quarter neighbourhood.

Yesterday (25/4/17) the SDF liberated the Wahab neighbourhood. This sits at the southern most tip of Tabqa.  As with the Alexandria neighbourhood it seems that the SDF are waiting to open humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to escape before pressing north from Wahab into the main area of Tabqa.

The operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was begun on October 17th 2016 (17/10/17).

It is a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia's that operate as part of the ISF. As with the Tabqa operation it is being supported by CJTFOIR.

The first stage of the Mosul operation was completed on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) with the liberation of the eastern half of the city - the so-called; "Left Bank." Following a short and planned pause the operation to liberate the western half of the city - the "Right Bank" - began on February 19th (19/2/17).

As with the liberation of the eastern side of Mosul it has been the ISF who have taken the role of liberating the city itself. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF had reached the outskirts of the city. They advanced into the city in two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

On March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which is the most eastern neighbourhood in the New Mosul district. Having arrived at the Rampart Walls bounding the Old City district the Golden Division then shifted direction and began liberating the Hay al-Yamuk district.

As of April 20th (20/4/17) the Golden Division had succeeded in liberating the Hay al-Yamuk district along with the Orouba neighbourhood and Industrial area which sits directly north of Hay al-Yamuk. They along with the combined Rapid Reaction Force had also liberated the al-Thawra neighbourhood and the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood which sit directly east of the Industrial area.

On April 21st (21/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Nasr neighbourhood. This sits right on the western outskirts of Mosul to the west of Hay al-Yamuk district. Today (25/4/17) the Golden Division have liberated the al-Tanak neighbourhood. This sits between Hay al-Yamuk and al-Nasr neighbourhood.

On Saturday (22/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Seha neighbourhood. This sits north of the al-Thawra neighbourhood directly west of the Az-Zanjili district. Located directly north of the Old City district Az-Zanjili is one of only a handful of Mosul's districts which remain fully under ISIL's control.

On Mosul's southern axis by March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood which sits directly to the south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche are that sits between the Old City district and the Tigris River between the al-Jamhuriya Bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

From there the Federal Police set about liberating the Old City district. They did this in two axis advancing north from the al-Tob neighbourhood along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west from the Corniche along Nineveh Street. In both directions the Federal Police cleared the buildings adjoining the streets as they advanced.

The Federal Police's primary objective within the Old City is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the al-Shaziani/Nineveh Street junction. As one of the place's where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group to be an Islamic State this seems to be where ISIL have concentrated the majority of their fighters in Mosul.

As of April 20th (20/4/17) the al-Nuri Mosque was surrounded on three sides. On the al-Shaziani Street axis the Federal Police were in around 40 metres/yards from the building and around 120 metres/yards away on the Nineveh Street axis.

As I've said it was always planned that progress within the Old City district would be the slowest of the entire operation. Things there have now slowed down into more of a waiting game then a battle in the traditional sense. However that does not mean that the ISF troops there are all sitting around with their feet up and playing cards.

Instead they're spending there time crouched down in uncomfortable position constantly staring down the sights of a heavy and oily rifle. The hope is that they will be able to catch a glimpse of an ISIL sniper before that sniper spots them first and blows their head off meaning they can't go home to their loved ones.

I have quite a loud voice. So while I'm not discouraging other people from doing so I won't be adding to the pressure on the ISF troops involved in the operation by covering every little detail of the fight for the Old City. I am though monitoring it and I can assure you that progress is continuing to be made.

ISIL now seem to have accepted that all they can do is slow down the liberation of Mosul. It is beyond their capability to repel the ISF and hold the city. So instead they seem to have shifted their focus on launching symbolic attacks on the ISF outside of the city.

On April 5th (5/4/17) launched a so-called marauding style attack on the city of Tikrit which is around 260km (155 miles) south of Mosul along the M1 Motorway. Disguised as police officers around 10 ISIL fighters entered the city overnight. They proceeded to shoot at passers-by before eventually blowing themselves up. At least 31 people including 14 police officers were killed in the attack with a further 40 people being wounded.

On Sunday (23/4/17) ISIL conducted a similar attack against a Federal Police base just outside Hamam al-Alil. Located around 25km (15 miles) south of Mosul and around 55km (30 miles) north of Qarrayah Hamam al-Alil is very part of the battle space for the Mosul operation.

Here 10 ISIL fighters attempted to enter the base. Fortunately they were unsuccessful with four of the fighters being killed after detonating suicide vests while the six other attackers were chased away. There are no reports of Federal Police casualties.

Also on Sunday (23/4/17) ISIL launched an ambush attack on an ISF convoy close to the town of Rutba. This is deep within Iraq's south-western Anbar province close to the border with both Syria and Jordan. Around 365km (220 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad and around 530km (320 miles) south-west of Mosul.

On this occasion ISIL were more successful. They managed to kill 9 Iraqi soldiers and take three more captive.

The single biggest single threat to anti-ISIL forces at the moment however remains Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Within Syria the entire area north-east of the Euphrates River up the Syria's border with Iraq has long been under the control of the SDF. This vast area has been designated; "Shangri-La."

Immediately to the west of Shangri-La you have the area designated; "Garvaghy Road." Roughly 100km (60 miles) wide this stretches between the Euphrates and the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west.

Garvaghy Road is currently under the control of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are an irregular and therefore illegal division of the Turkish military. On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan dispatched the regular Turkish military to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area.

Immediately to the west of Garvaghy Road you have another area under the SDF's control. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "Afrin Canton."

In sending regular forces to invade Garvaghy Road Erdogan was trying to prevent the SDF cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey by linking Shangri-La with Afrin Canton.

Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have an area which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Centred around the city of Idlib the Sudetenland is under the control of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. The Army of Conquest is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).  However another sizable faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA). They are allied with ISIL.

While ISIL have been suffering defeat after defeat in Iraq and Syria their allies the Army of Conquest have also been suffering a string of defeats. In December 2016 they lost control of the city of Aleppo. They have also lost control of large areas around the Syrian capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama.

So on April 4th (4/4/17) Erdogan assisted the Army of Conquest to carry out a Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. This sits just at the southern boundary of the Sudetenland and at the time of the Sarin attack was on the brink of being liberated from the Army of Conquest.

In staging this Sarin attack Erdogan had several objectives;

The first of these was to trigger calls for a ceasefire that would halt the Syrians advance leaving Khan Sheikhoun under Army of Conquest control.

Secondly Erdogan used the attack as an excuse to flood the Sudetenland with Turkish civilian personnel under the guise of providing humanitarian. As with his operations within Garvaghy Road flooding the Sudetenland with civilian workers is the first stage of changing the demographics of the area in order to annex into a greater Turkey or new Ottoman Empire.

Finally Erdogan wanted to use the attack as an excuse to launch military strikes against the Syrian government in the hope of overthrowing it and replacing it with a puppet government which would voluntarily make Syria part of a greater Turkey.

With the US launching limited military strikes against the Syrian government on April 7th (7/4/17) Erdogan was partially successful. Since then he has been growing in confidence gradually increasing his attacks against anti-ISIL forces.

On April 11th (11/4/17) Erdogan instructed regular Turkish military units to resume their shelling of civilian positions with Afrin Canton. This shelling of Afrin Canton was repeated on April 17th (17/4/17). On April 20th (20/4/17) Erdogan escalated further by instructing the Turkish Air Force to conduct airstrikes against Afrin Canton.

Last Friday (21/4/17) Erdogan expanded his operations to Iraq by conducting airstrikes against Qandil which is around 110km (65 miles) north-east of Mosul.

On Saturday (22/4/17) Erdogan continued his airstrikes against Qandil and expanded them with strikes against Dohuk. Located some 70km (40 miles) north of Mosul Dohuk is the site of numerous Internally Displaces Peoples (IDP) camps for civilians fleeing the fighting in Mosul. Strikes against Qandil and Dohuk continued on Sunday (23/4/17) and Monday (24/4/17).

Today (25/4/17) Erdogan has massively increased his strikes against anti-ISIL forces both in Syria and Iraq.

Overnight Erdogan instructed the Turkish airforce to conduct strikes against an Iraqi Peshmerga base located close to Sinjar/Shingal. This is located on the western boundary of the Mosul battle space. This strike killed 5 Peshmerga and wounded 9 others along with killing 5 members of the Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Unit (YBS) element of the PMF.

Erdogan's airforce also conducted more than 20 overnight airstrikes against SDF positions in the town of al-Malikiyah/Derik which sits around 30km (18 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border at the very north-east of the Shangri-La area. 18 members of the SDF were killed in these strikes.

Throughout the day Turkish artillery has continuously shelled five villages in the Afrin Canton. There are growing reports of a significant build-up of regular Turkish forces on the border between Turkey and the Afrin Canton.

We are awaiting a response from CJTFOIR to Erdogan's decision to act as ISIL's Air Force.

17:05 on 25/4/17 (UK date).











 



 

The Most Unpredictable Election Ever.

Yesterday (23/4/17) France held the first round of its Presidential Election. This was dubbed by much of the media the most unpredictable election ever.

However with Marine Le Pen going on to face Emmanuel Macron in the second round run-off it seems to have been entirely predictable. In fact I would almost go so far as to say that it had been rigged.

France's election this year has been an unusual one. Despite being mid-way through his two terms and therefore entitled to run the incumbent President Francois Hollande opted not to do so. That is because both he and his Socialist Party are simply too unpopular.

You don't need to look far to see why Hollande and the Socialists are so unpopular.

On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) 130 people were murdered in coordinated Islamist terror attacks across the French capital Paris. Since then the entire country has been under a State of Emergency with many civil liberties suspended and soldiers on the streets.

However this has done little to protect France from terror. On July 14th 2016 (14/7/16) 86 people were murdered in another Islamist terror attack in the city of Nice.

Much smaller Islamist terror attacks have occurred on an almost monthly basis across France. Just last Thursday (20/4/17) one police officer was killed and several other people injured in an ambush-style attack on the Champs Elysees just metres from Paris' famous Arch de Triumph.

Under Hollande and the Socialist France's economy has been equally moribund. Since Hollande's election in 2012 unemployment has remained stubbornly above 10%. This puts France in a worse economic position than traditionally poorer European nations such as Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania.

When you consider that amongst Muslim men of North-African origin the unemployment rate is closer to 25% it doesn't really take a genius to work out why France is currently having so much trouble with Islamist terror.

With Hollande being so unpopular you would think that it would be equally impossible for his protege Emmanuel Macron to stand for the Socialist Party and be elected President.

A member of the Socialist Party since 2006 Macron spent two years between 2013 and 2014 working as the equivalent of President Hollande's Chief-of-Staff. Macron left that role to work as France's economy minister during a period in which France's unemployment was at its highest.

With a pedigree like that you would think it would take something extra special for Macron to become elected. The Socialists duly obliged unleashing an incredibly elaborate effort to deceive voters and ensure that they clung to power.

The first step was for Macron to deny that he is the Socialist's candidate. Officially Macron represents the En Marche! (Forward!/On the Move) Party. However this was only created in April 2016 specifically as a vehicle for Macron to stand in the Presidential Election. It has contested no other election and holds no seats at either the regional, national or European level.

The second step was for the Socialists to put forward what is known as a stalking horse candidate. Initially this was Benoit Hamon. He is from the hard left of the Socialist Party so his only purpose was to make Macron appear mainstream and electable by comparison.

However it turns out that Hamon isn't extreme enough to make Macron seem electable. So the Socialists were forced to put forward a second, even more extreme stalking horse candidate in the form of Jean-Luc Melenchon.

As with Macron Melenchon was officially running for the La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) Party which was formed in 2016 specifically for the 2017 Presidential Election. However Melenchon has been a member of the Socialist Party since 1977 and served as both their minister for education between 2000 and 2002 and as a Senator between 2004 and 2010. His platform includes colonising Mars and he likes to appear at campaign events in the form of a hologram.

With three of the five main candidates effectively running on a platform to support Macron the Socialists third step was to eliminate the only credible candidate in the field - Francois Fillon of the centre-right Republican Party.

So almost immediately after Fillon had been nominated Hollande's finance ministry passed the entire Fillon family tax returns to Magistrates. This triggered a long-running investigation over the fact that Fillon had employed his wife as part of his political campaign - a standard practice in French politics. Although no charges have been filed the rumour and speculation has significantly damaged Fillon's reputation with voters just in time for the election.

The Socialists fourth step in getting Macron elected was to make Marine Le Pen of the Front Nationale (National Front) Party seem just electable enough to get into the second round run-off. They did this by simply copying the US Democrats playbook and making false accusations linking Le Pen to Russia just as the Democrats had attempted to link Donald Trump to Russia.

Attempting to link Le Pen to Trump serves several purposes for Macron's Socialists.

Firstly by comparing Le Pen to Trump they are by extension comparing themselves to former US President Obama. Amongst people who are removed from frontline politics Obama is inexplicably seen as both successful and popular. His Black Lives Matter campaign in particular strikes a cord in France where there are longstanding divisions between the police and public.

Secondly by comparing Le Pen to Trump Macron's Socialists are comparing her to the person who won the US Presidency. Success always attracts support helping to building momentum for the idea that Le Pen could actually win meaning that a vote for her would not be a wasted vote.

Thirdly Trump is actually a political moderate. Therefore comparing Le Pen to Trump makes Le Pen's extreme views seem moderate by association.

Take for example Trump's travel ban. Despite what his opponents say this is not a Muslim ban. It is a temporary ban on people for six nations visiting the US in response to a credible terrorist threat. However all the people calling it a Muslim Ban make Le Pen's plan to forcibly expel Muslim citizens from France more palatable.

Obviously Macron and the Socialists want Macron to win. Therefore their intention was only to give Le Pen enough support so she would end up in the run-off against Macron.

This is far from the first time that a Le Pen let alone a Front Nationale candidate has made it into a French Presidential run-off.

In 2002 Marine Le Pen's father and convicted Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen sneaked into the run-off vote. French voters then united behind the other candidate - Jacques Chirac of what is now the Republican Party - just to stop Le Pen becoming President. Chirac went on to win with some 85% of the vote.

Macron is clearly hoping that the same thing will happen this year.

I think anyone would support Le Pen even against Macron. However the fact Macron's been prepared to deceive voters this much during the election makes me fearful of what he will do in office.

17:05 on 24/4/17 (UK date).

 

 

 

Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 2.

This really should be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/operation-featherweight-month-34-week-1.html

Within Syria the town of Tabqa sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates River around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) de facto capital within Syria. However what makes Tabqa so strategically important is the adjoining Tabqa Dam which spans the Euphrates creating Lake Assad. It provides ISIL with one of their few remaining points to cross the Euphrates between Raqqa and the rest of Syria.

In November 2016 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. The second phase of this operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from Tishrin Dam to Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the SDF succeeded in liberating Jabour Castle which sits on a peninsula in Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam.

Over the night of March 21st (21/3/17) into March 22nd (22/3/17) the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) airdropped members of the SDF along with US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and US Marines on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa.

This was the start of an operation to liberate both Tabqa and its dam. The plan was for the SDF to advance from both the north and the south.

On the northern front the SDF's first objective was to advance from Jabour Castle onto the Tabqa Dam. This was achieved on March 24th (25/3/17) with the SDF entered the dam complex. On March 26th (26/3/17) they were able to secure partial control of the dam itself. This allowed SDF engineers to inspect the dam, ensure it was structurally sound and open a spillway to relieve water pressure on the dam from Lake Assad.

On the southern front the SDF's task was slightly more complex. Their first objective was to liberate Tabqa Airfield which is around 12km (7 miles) east of their landing site. This objective was achieved on March 27th (27/3/17) with the SDF also liberating a small number of villages between their landing site and the airfield.

The second objective on the southern front was to surround Tabqa. This was achieved on March 29th (29/3/17) with the SDF advancing north from the airfield to liberate the M4 Motorway linking Tabqa to Raqqa via Abu Arif. Again the SDF liberated a small number of villages and farms as they advanced.

On March 30th (30/3/17) the SDF announced that their plan was to sit and wait for ISIL fighters to surrender Tabqa.

ISIL responded to this suggestion they should surrender on April 2nd (2/4/17) by launching a sustained counter-attack on the SDF in the direction of the airfield. Over the course of three days the SDF repelled this counter-attack and ISIL were unable to break the siege of Tabqa.

On April 4th (4/4/17) the SDF decided to increase the pressure on ISIL by liberating the village of Safafah which is 1.5km (0.9 miles) east of Tabqa. Following a 38 hour battle Safafah was liberated on April 6th (6/4/17) further tightening the noose on ISIL in Tabqa.

On April 11th (11/4/17) the SDF took control of the H6 Raqqa to Damascus Highway south of Abu Arif - around 18km (10 miles) east of Tabqa. This further isolates Raqqa from the rest of Syria.

On April 15th (15/4/17) the SDF got tired of waiting for ISIL to surrender and launched an operation to liberate Tabqa itself. This has seen them advance on the town both from the south-west in the direction of their landing site and from the south-east in the direction of the airfield

At not quite 20kmsq (12 milesq) Tabqa is quite a small town. For comparison the Old City district of Mosul is around 12kmsq (7 milesq) and significantly more densely populated. As such it is difficult to talk about the SDF's progress in Tabqa in terms of districts or neighbourhoods. There is pretty much only one district - Tabqa.

However on the first day (15/4/17) of the operation the SDF succeeded in liberating the Alexandria neighbourhood. This sits on the south-east of Tabqa slightly separated from the rest of Tabqa by a distance of all of 200metres/yards.

On that first day (15/4/17) the SDF were also able to liberate the Ayd as-Saghir neighbourhood, This sits on the south-west of Tabqa also slightly separated from the rest of the town by all of 500metres/yards.

Since then the SDF seem to have focused most of the efforts on Tabqa's western side. On April 19th (19/4/17) they took control of Tabqa's Hotel which sits just north of the as-Saghir neighbourhood and just south of the Third Quarter neighbourhood which sits directly on the banks of Lake Assad.

What is stopping the SDF pushing north-west from the Alexandria neighbourhood into the main part of Tabqa is that they are learning the lessons from the Mosul operation.

For a host of reasons the Mosul operation centred on this strange idea that civilians could safely remain in their homes while battle raged around them. As a result no provision was made to evacuate the civilians from Mosul. This has allowed ISIL to use those civilians as human shields and tensions have increased as Mosul's residents have been - accidentally I must stress - killed by the forces sent to liberate them.

What the SDF have done is establish humanitarian corridors from the main part of Tabqa to the Alexandria neighbourhood. Before launching a push north-west into the town they are now waiting for as many civilians as possible to escape.

In another sign the SDF are learning the lessons of Mosul on Tuesday (18/4/17) they established a civilian council to administer Raqqa once it has been liberated from ISIL. This is despite an operation to liberate Raqqa not being expected to be launched possibly until the autumn of 2017.

One of the other big problems with the Mosul operation is that no authority was established to look after the civilian population both during and after the city's liberation. As a result there is no single authority to provide for the civilians who escape nor is there an authority to coordinate things like restoring basic services like electricity to a liberated Mosul and assist with clearing away and repairing the battle damage.

One of the things that struck me during the early stages of the Mosul operation was that there were suddenly thousands of sheep and goats wandering around the battlefield. This seemed almost comically surreal until you realised that many of the people living around Mosul were sheep and goat farmers. Now those animals have escaped those people have lost their livelihood making it much harder for them to put their lives back together when ISIL are gone.

Whether is from natural disaster or war it's long been established that the priority for reconstruction is to get people back to their old lives as quickly as possible. If someone can get back to work earning their own money they're much more likely to rebuild their own house rather than waiting forever for the government or some aid agency to come and do it for them.

So I would not be happy to support an operation to liberate Raqqa until someone can show me their plan for the goats.

On April 11th (11/4/17) there was an unfortunate incident in which 17 SDF fighters were killed in a CJTFOIR airstrike. My understanding is that they fighters were members of the Arab Raqqa Hawks Brigade/Liwa Suqur al-Raqqa who have now withdraw from the Tabqa operation in protest. However they have been replaced by Arab members of the Manbij Military Council.

If nothing else this sad incident highlights the problem facing CJTFOIR. There is no suggestion that they see the lives of their allied fighters as being worth more than civilians. However in the heat of battle they still do make mistakes that end up killing the people they're working with.

Finally I would just like to turn back to Thursday's (20/4/17) attack in Paris, France.

As I've said the attack was quickly claimed by ISIL. However with them naming the wrong attacker it is clear that ISIL did not direct the attack. The attacker did though leave a not at the scene praising ISIL so it certainly seems to be an ISIL inspired attack.

The problem is that the investigators have so far found no link between the attacker and ISIL showing that he was inspired via the Internet. Therefore I can't help but wonder whether he was accidentally inspired by the mainstream media and even the French authorities.

You don't need to follow ISIL or Al Qaeda on the Internet to see how badly they're currently doing both in Syria and Iraq. It is on the TV news almost every night and certainly at least once a week.

Just on Tuesday (18/4/17) French police raided an apartment in Marseille. They arrested two men and seized firearms and 3kg of TATP - the explosive commonly used in suicide vests. This seems to have been an ISIL directed attempt to carry out a spectacular attack just before the French election.

Obviously having foiled the plot the French authorities were happy to hold press conferences trumpeting their success. The story was also all over the news. Therefore its possible the attacker simply heard about ISIL's failure and decided he'd better step in to help. 

However I certainly don't think that should be used by any journalist or politician as an excuse to suppress the truth of what is happening in Syria and Iraq.

21:40 on 22/4/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 34, Week 1, Day 1.

Last night France suffered yet another terror attack.

At around 21:00 local time (19:00 GMT) a car drove up to a van belonging to the French police's Compagnies Republicaines de Securite (CRS) parked on the Champs Elysees roughly 500 metres/yards from the famous Arch de Triumphe monument in Paris.

The car's driver then got out and opened fire on the CRS van with a Kalashnikov-type rifle killing one officer and wounding two others along with a passer-by before being shot and killed by the police.

This attack has been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). However in that claim they mis-identified the gunman so at this time that is not considered credible.

Despite the level of coverage it has received globally events in Paris last night actually represents a very small, almost insignificant attack. This type of attack has become so common in places such as Egypt that I barely read the reports when they come in anymore.

Just on Tuesday (18/4/17) on police officer was shot and killed by a terrorist at a checkpoint close to Saint Catherine's Christian Cathedral near Mount Sinai. This too has been claimed by ISIL. The reason why I barely read the reports of events like this is that the nature of the attack and the motive behind them is almost always the same.

Both ISIL's Egyptian affiliate - the Supporters of the Holy House/Ansar Bait al-Maqdis/Sinai Province (ABM) - and the Rabaa campaign have their roots in the July 2013 revolution. Their objective is to overthrow Egypt's democratic government and replace it with an Islamist dictatorship similar to the one Mohamed Morsi created.

In order to achieve this both ABM and the Rabaa campaign have been conducted small scale ambushes on the police as they go about their daily duties. The intention being to make the police constantly fear for their lives.

As with all other people the police are likely to respond to this fear by reacting aggressively and overreacting. The hope being that this will create a public backlash against police violence that will bring down the government.

Over the course of 2017 France and in particular Paris has experienced a period of increased tension between the police and the public.

Back in February the police were accused of violently and sexually assaulting an arrestee in the Paris suburb of Saint Denis. This sparked several weeks of often quite violent rioting. In March police in Paris shot and killed a Chinese man who was attacking them with a knife. Again this sparked several days of rioting particularly amongst Paris' Chinese community.

Being the French riot squad the CRS who were attacked last night have been at the centre of those recent events. Therefore it is possible in carrying out the ambush-style attack the perpetrator was attempting to copy the tactics of the Rabaa campaign and ABM in Egypt in order to further increase tension between the French police and public.

However it has since emerged that the attacker - a French Muslim of North African origin - was convicted of the attempted murder of two police officers back in early 2000's. He was investigated as recently as February 2017 for making threats to kill police officers.

Therefore it is also possible that the two issues have simply converged. There is a long history of tension between French Muslims of North African origin and the French police that far precedes the rise of Al Qaeda let alone the rise of ISIL.

The attack comes just two days before the first round of the French Presidential election to be held on Sunday (23/4/17). The attack has actually led to today's (21/4/17) final day of campaigning to be suspended. Therefore it is also entirely possible that the attack was carried out in an effort to influence the outcome of that election.

It has long been part of Al Qaeda's philosophy that within society there is exists three spaces; The white space where Muslims exist and the black space where non-Muslims exist. There is also the third grey space where Muslims and non-Muslims coexist.

Al Qaeda's objective is to use terrorism to destroy the grey space meaning that Muslims and non-Muslims no longer coexist within society. The intention being to trigger a war between the white space and the black space which the Muslims - meaning Al Qaeda - will eventually win.

Of late ISIL seem to have been starting to adopt this strategy. However at the risk of going off on a tangent online Islamist recruits tend to know so little about either Islam or terrorism they can't understand the subtle ideological differences between Al Qaeda and ISIL.

Within the French election there is a candidate who also shares Al Qaeda's three space strategy. Marine Le Pen of the National Front/Front Nationale (FN).

Although it is a term that is often overused - particularly in western politics - Marine Le Pen is a Nazi. She believes in the utter supremacy of the white race and the Christian religion.

Therefore she too wants to destroy the space in which Muslims and non-Muslims coexist in order to trigger a war in which the non-Muslims - meaning Le Pen - will eventually win.

Throughout this campaign Le Pen has run on a platform of being voters only choice to guard against the threat of Islamist terrorism. Therefore it is entirely possible that Islamist terrorists have conducted an attack to prove Le Pen right boosting her chances of election. After all they both want almost exactly the same thing.

Even if it was not the intention this puts the French political establishment in a very difficult position.

Up until now they've not been conducting an election campaign. Instead they've been conducting one of the most elaborate political frauds ever seen to make sure that Le Pen is defeated in the second round run-off by Emanuel Macron.

Macron has been a member of France's Socialist Party since 2006. Between 2012 and 2014 he served as effectively the Chief-of-Staff to Socialist President Francois Hollande. In 2014 he was appointed as the Economy Minister in the government of Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

This French Presidential election is unusual. Despite being legally able to do so the incumbent Socialist President Francois Hollande is not seeking re-election. Because he is simply too unpopular.

Due to the current deep unpopularity of both Hollande and the Socialist Party there is no way that Macron could run as the Socialist's candidate and win. So officially he is running as an independent having resigned from the Socialist Party.

The Socialist Party's official candidate is the far-left extremist Benoit Hamon. As with Bernie Sanders running against Hillary Clinton in the US Democratic Party primaries Hamon's only job is to make Macron appear moderate and electable by comparison.

As if setting up a fake party and running a stalking horse candidate was elaborate enough effort to get Macron elected the Socialists have also abused the criminal justice systems to launch criminal cases against pretty much every single one of Macron's rivals.

They have particularly focused on the centre-right Republican Party candidate Francois Fillon who is seen as the only real alternative to Macron.

Taking a further leaf out of the US Democrats 2016 Macron's Socialists have also invented this elaborate Russian conspiracy against them.

They've accused Russian hackers of distributing fake news against them and Russian banks of funding Le Pen's campaign. Some Macron supporters have even tried blaming Russia for last night's attack.

In reality Russia have done pretty much everything in their power to destroy Le Pen's chances of election.

Just at the start of this month the Russian Bank Deposit Insurance Agency demanded the immediate repayment of a E9million loan to the Front Nationale. This effectively bankrupted the Le Pen campaign which is now only being kept afloat by family money.

As with Obama and Hillary Clinton Emanuel Macron will happily destroy the white space, the black space and the grey space. Just as long as he still gets to call himself President.

I think though the main motive though behind ISIL wanting to carry out an attack is that they are currently doing extremely badly both in Iraq and Syria.

Therefore they need a big display of their power over a high profile western location and a western election to keep their supporters supporting them. Both in terms of potential attackers and targets France provides them the best opportunity to do that.

At around 12:20 on 21/4/17 (UK date) I will be back to detail just how badly ISIL are doing both in Syria and Iraq. However the last time I said that on a Friday I wasn't allowed back on the Internet.

Edited at around 14:30 on 21/4/17 (UK date) to add;

Within Iraq and Syria ISIL are currently under intense pressure in two main areas. The city of Mosul in Iraq and the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam in Syria.

ISIL first captured Mosul when they invaded northern Iraq in the summer of 2014. Since then the city has functioned as their de facto capital within the country.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul. This is combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias which function as part of the ISF. The operation is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

The first stage of the operation was completed with the liberation of the entire eastern side of Mosul on January 24th 2017 (24/1/17). Following a short and planned pause the second phase of the operation to liberate Mosul's so-called "Right Bank" on the western side of the Tigris River was launched on February 19th (19/2/17).

As with the liberation of the eastern side of Mosul it has been the ISF who have taken the role of liberating the city itself. On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF had reached the outskirts of the city. They advanced into the city in two axis;

The Federal Police axis entered western Mosul from the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani Military base at the southern most tip of the city. They then advanced north towards the Old City district of the city clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

The Counter-Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) axis entered the city from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city. They then advanced north-east towards the Old City district of Mosul clearing neighbourhoods as they went.

By March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had reached the western Ramparts of the Old City liberating Mosul Railway station and the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This is the western most neighbourhood in a district of the city known as; "New Mosul."

The Golden Division axis then changed direction and headed north into the Hay al-Yarmuk district of the city. As of March 30th (30/3/17) the Golden Division had succeeded in liberating the Risala, Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi neighbourhoods of the Yarmuk district. They had also succeeded in liberating Orouba neighbourhood and the Industrial district which sit directly north of the Yarmuk neighbourhood.

On April 2nd (2/4/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the al-Tanak and al-Nahrwan neighbourhoods. The are the two most westerly neighbourhoods in the Yarmuk district.

Also on April 2nd (2/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Thawra neighbourhood. This sits east of the Yarmuk district, directly north of the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood which was liberated by the combined Rapid Reaction Force on March 30th (30/3/17). Bounded by the Old City Ramparts/Ibrahim al-Athir Street and the Fifth Bridge Road Qadhib al-Ban is the most north-easterly neighbourhood of the New Mosul district.

On April 5th (5/4/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Maghrib neighbourhood and had advanced into the Aabar and Malachin neighbourhoods. These are all on the eastern side of the Yarmuk district to the north of the al-Thawra neighbourhood.

On April 10th (10/4/17) the Golden Division completed the liberation of Aabar and Malachin neighbourhoods along with the small Sikak neighbourhood. These completed the successful liberation of the entire Hay al-Yarmouk district.

Yesterday (20/4/17) the Golden Division completed the liberation of the al-Nasr neighbourhood. This sits to the west of the Yarmuk district on the outskirts of the city.

As a result of these gains ISIL only control six neighbourhoods/districts in Mosul; The Hay al-Rabi, Hay al-Uraybi, Hay ar-Rafi and Hay 17 Tammuz all north of Hay al-Yarmuk along with Hay az-Zanjli north-east of the al-Tharwa (Hay as-Sinnah) neighbourhood.

By March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police had reached the al-Tob neighbourhood at the very south of the Old City district. They had also liberated the Corniche area which sits directly east of the Old City along the banks of the Tigris between the al-Jamhuriya bridge to the south and the Old Bridge to the north.

The Federal Police then began the liberation of the Old City itself. From the al-Tob neighbourhood they advanced north along al-Shaziani Street while at the same time advancing west along Nineveh Street clearing the adjoining buildings as they went.

The Federal Police's ultimate objective is the al-Nuri Mosque which sits just north of the junction between Nineveh and al-Shaziani Streets. It is where ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave one of his speeches declaring ISIL as a Caliphate back in 2014. Due to its immense significance to the group it is in this area that ISIL seem to have concentrated the bulk of their fighters.

At the end of March I estimated that on both the al-Shaziani and Nineveh Street axis the Federal Police were around 600 metres/yards fro the al-Nuri Mosque. That distance has now been cut to around 40 metres/yards on the al-Shaziani axis and 120 metres/yards on the Nineveh Street axis with the Mosque itself now surrounded on three sides.

In the planning for the Mosul operation it was always known that the Old City district would be the slowest and hardest of all the areas to liberate. Therefore it is important not to mistake the current steady but slow progress for a sign that the operation is starting to fail amid stiff resistance from ISIL. If anything the opposite is true.

Although there are still occasional artillery strikes and exchanges of heavy machine gun fire the combat within the Old City no longer really resembles what most people would recognise as a battle.

Instead it has become more of a slow waiting game with ISF snipers quietly watching for ISIL snipers to show themselves so they can kill them. Apparently in many places the ISF are now using slingshots and marbles to trick the ISIL snipers into thinking they're coming under fire. One large territorial gain within the Old City of around 100 metres/yards was the result of just 12 ISIL fighters being killed.

As control of Mosul starts to completely slip away from ISIL the group have responded by increasing their use of Chemical Weapons.

Both on April 15th (15/4/17) and again on April 16th (16/4/17) ISIL shelled Golden Division positions in the Orouba neighbourhood and the adjoining Industrial district with Chlorine Gas. Both American and Australian advisers were embedded with the Golden Division at the time. However there were no significant casualties. Apparently the six ISF soldiers effected by the gas didn't even need to be evacuated from the battlefield for medical treatment.

In response the Federal Police succeeded in killing the head of ISIL's Chemical Weapons program Abu Ahmed Gaz by shelling his location in the Zanjli neighbourhood on Thursday (20/4/17). The hope being that he was killed whilst visiting ISIL's last Chemical Weapons stockpile in the city.

Frustratingly I will have to leave developments in Tabqa until tomorrow. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) may well have liberated the entire town by then. 

16:05 on 21/4/17 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 5, Day 2.

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent the regular Turkish military to illegally invade and occupy Syria.

Specifically a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Designated; "Garvaghy Road" this has the towns of Azaz/Kilis at its western edge and the Euphrates River on its eastern edge.

Erdogan's purpose for sending his troops to conduct this invasion was to preserve the supply lines running between Turkey and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) to the south-east and the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition to the south-west.

At the time ISIL's supply lines with Turkey in particular were coming under extreme pressure from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria the SDF control the entire area east of the Euphrates between the river and Syria's border with Iraq. This has been designated; "Shangri-La." The SDF also control an area west of Azaz/Kilis. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

On August 14th 2016 (14/8/16) the SDF liberated the town of Manbij from ISIL. This sits on the western bank of the Euphrates just inside Garvaghy Road. In launching his invasion Erdogan was worried that the SDF would push on from Manbij to link Shangri-La with Afrin Canton sealing Garvaghy Road completely cutting off ISIL's supply line with Turkey.

Erdogan's invasion of Syria is not only wholly illegal but completely contrary to the objective of defeating ISIL. Therefore US President at the time Barack Obama should never have permitted it. However Obama did permit it on the condition that Erdogan would completely withdraw his forces from Syria by September 7th 2016 (7/9/16).

September 7th 2016 (7/9/16) came and went with Erdogan reneging on the agreement and refusing to withdraw his forces from Syria. Now nearly 8 months later Erdogan's forces continue to occupy Syria. Their main purpose there has been to launch attacks against the SDF.

The most serious incident occurred on March 1st 2017 (1/3/17).

Here Erdogan used the Turkish air force to conduct airstrikes against SDF positions against Tel Rifat on the western boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton. That afternoon Erdogan expanded his airstrikes to include SDF positions at Manbij. Included in those SDF positions at Manbij were US Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

Erdogan's airstrikes against US/SDF forces at Manbij were only halted when Russia negotiated the deployment of Syria troops to form a buffer-zone between the Manbij and Turkish positions at al-Bab. Those Syrian forces are considered less of a threat to the US then Erdogan's forces.

Despite the establishment of a Syrian buffer-zone between Manbij and al-Bab Erdogan's attacks against the SDF have continued.

On April 11th (11/4/17) Erdogan's shelling wounded several civilians in villages with Afrin Canton. Just on Monday (17/4/17) Erdogan's forces again shelled civilians in the Afrin Canton. Today (20/4/17) there are reports that Erdogan has continued to escalate once again conducting airstrikes against the SDF on the boundary between Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road.

On March 29th (29/3/17) Erdogan declared that his operations within Syria were at an end. However this was just a ruse ahead of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Turkey on March 30th (30/3/17). The intention being to head off US calls for Erdogan to cease his operation by making it appear that he was going to do so of his own accord.

On April 4th (4/4/17) Erdogan declared that his operations within Syria were most certainly not at an end and his forces would not be withdrawing. Instead he declared that his forces would expand their operations beyond Garvaghy Road and told his supporters to expect; "Good Surprises."

Later that same day we found out what Erdogan meant by Good Surprises. A Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack occurred at the village of Khan Shiekhoun killing 86 people. Khan Shiekhoun is within an area just south of the Afrin Canton under Army of Conquest control that has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

Erdogan followed up the Sarin attack by immediately flooding the Sudetenland with Turkish government agencies under the pre-text of providing humanitarian aid. As with Jarablus - just north of Manbij - this humanitarian aid has taken the form of establishing a semi-permanent Turkish government presence within Syrian territory.

Erdogan also followed up the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack by demanding that he be allowed to dispatch more regular military forces to Syria in order to overthrow the Syrian government and establish the area as part of a greater Turkey. He was successful in pressuring the US to conduct limited missile strikes against Syrian government positions on April 7th (7/4/17).

Since the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack everyone's number one priority has been to get Erdogan to withdraw his forces from Syria to remove his incentive to carry out any future attacks.

Obviously the best way to do this is to get Erdogan to announce the withdrawal of his forces himself. The alternative is that an ultimatum is issued for the withdrawal of those forces. If Erdogan fails to comply that ultimatum is backed up by military force.

In order to encourage Erdogan to make this announcement himself everyone has been trying to build him up into a (false) position of power. The intention being to allow him to convince his supporters that he is making the announcement as a sign of his strength rather than out of weakness.

Leading this effort to stroke Erdogan's extremely fragile ego has been Britain.

For example on April 10th (10/4/17) US Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson announced that he was cancelling his meeting with his Russian opposite number and would instead be getting the G7 to impose sanctions on Russia for carrying out the Khan Shiekhoun Sarin attack. Britain did this knowing full well that the G7 would not agree to this because there is no evidence linking Syria let alone Russia to the attack.

So when the G7 failed to agree with Britain and  instead called for evidence Britain threw its weight behind a French United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for an investigation. They did this knowing the resolution was unlikely to receive enough votes to pass and if it did Russia would veto it. When Russia did veto it Britain led the condemnation.

Meanwhile Russia has introduced its own resolution calling for an investigation. This is almost identical to the French resolution except for one crucial difference. It requires investigators to actually travel to Khan Sheikhoun to conduct independent investigations of their own rather than simply relying on information provided by Erdogan.

It almost goes without saying that Britain has joined France in promising the veto this Russian resolution. This has forced Russia to take the matter directly to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) who are planning to vote on it today (20/4/17).

Unlike France Britain of course doesn't believe a word of what it is saying. This further helps stroke Erdogan's ego. It shows that he is so powerful that he is able to force Britain to lie for him.

These attempts to make Erdogan appear powerful have been backed up by just the subtlest suggestions of military force.

On April 13th (13/4/17) the US used its GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB) bomb in combat for the first time. Dubbed the; "Mother Of All Bombs" the use of this bomb which explodes with the equivalent of 11 tonnes of TNT prompted Russia to start talking about its Aviation Thermobaric Bomb of Increased Power (ATBIP). Yielding a blast of 44 tonnes of TNT this far exceeds the power of the MOAB and has been dubbed; "The Father Of All Bombs (FOAB)."

Both the MOAB and the FOAB of course seem ridiculously small when compared with the B61-12 which is the US' smallest nuclear weapon. This explodes with the equivalent power of 3,000 tonnes of TNT.

Back in July 2016 Erdogan laid siege to United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk in Turkey. In response to Erdogan's aggressive behaviour once the siege had been lifted the US removed around 30 B61-12's from Turkey and relocated them to Romania because Erdogan could not be trusted

On April 14th (14/4/17) the US confirmed that it had test dropped the non-nuclear elements of a B61-12.It was dropped by the standard F-16 strike aircraft that has played such a large role in the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

So it seems that even if Erdogan refuses to withdraw his forces from Syria they can still be quickly removed.

The problem is that Britain does not have a reputation as a reliable partner. Particularly when it comes to fighting Islamist terror groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) the UK suffered an Islamist terror attack at the Parliament building in London. This led to concerns that Britain's sudden support for Erdogan was being driven simply by fear.

So on April 11th (11/4/17) the team bus of the German football team Borussia Dortmund was struck by a bomb as it travelled to a match.

Even before the Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack Erdogan supporters on social media had broken out their; "Assad Chemical Genocide" protest signs. Defined by black lettering against a yellow background the Assad Chemical Genocide signs are almost identical to the "Rabaa" protest signs Erdogan has been using to destabilise Egypt.

Borussia Dortmund's logo is black lettering against a yellow background. I think the April 11th (11/4/17) bombing makes it quite clear what Germany thinks of Erdogan's Chemical Genocide campaign.

Borussia Dortmund were scheduled to play the French side Monaco that evening. Monaco's logo is defined by white writing against a red background. Rather like the national flag of Turkey.

In a show of solidarity when the game was played on April 12th (12/4/17) Monaco fans took to displaying Borussia Dortmund's and Monaco's logos united as one. Rather like the Turkish flag under Erdogan and the Assad Chemical Genocide and Rabaa campaigns are united as one.

Although there was absolutely no suggestion he was involved German authorities used the Borussia Dortmund bombing as justification to arrest Abdul Beset al-O. This 26 year old Iraqi had commanded an ISIL death-squad before travelling to Germany via Turkey by pretending to be a refugee. This sends rather a strong message on what position Germany will take should Erdogan respond to his forces expulsion from Syria by sending more terrorists to attack Europe.

The Borussia Dortmund bombing has been followed up by lots of conflicting claims of responsibility from both the political left and right. This reflects the way that in Germany as with many other western nations the refugee issue has been hijacked. Both the left and right - but particularly the left - use the refugee issue as sort of a card to prove how caring they are. The only thing they don't care about is the refugees. If Erdogan responds with more attacks this will have to stop.

There have also been a lot of references to the US TV Show; "NCIS." For example on the Saturday (15/4/17) it was claimed the bomb's detonators had were Germany military issue. The episode of NCIS broadcast in the UK that evening centred around the theft of detonators and other weapons from a US military base.

The bombs themselves were essentially homemade Claymore mines. These formed the base of a big NCIS storyline. Particularly one scene where one character declares; "It must be the suspect - who else knows how to make homemade Claymore mines." Prompting all the other characters to slowly put their hands up.

German intelligence services have something of a strange relationship with the TV show NCIS. Back on July 22nd 2016 (22/7/16) 10 people were killed in a shooting attack at the site of the infamous 1972 Munich Olympic games. The Germans denied it was a terror attack instead claiming the attacker was a troubled teen influenced by violent video games.

A recent NCIS storyline revolved around an Islamist terror group based in Iraq and Syria - no-one specifically said ISIL - using online video games to inspire troubled teens to carry out violent attacks. However with the attacks not being claimed by the terror group investigators would treat them as isolated incidents protecting the terror group. The storyline was inspired by real-life concerns over ISIL's use of online radicalisation.

So perhaps a nation that can't admit when it's come under Islamist terror attacks shouldn't be lecturing the UK on how to respond to them.

At around 17:10 on 20/4/17 (UK date) I have plenty more to add.

Edited at around 18:30 on 20/4/17 (UK date) to add;

If the UEFA Champions League game between Borussia Dortmund and Monaco was marred by the spectre of Islamist terrorism then Thursday's (13/4/17) UEFA Europa League match between French side Lyon and Turkish side Besiktas was marred by good old fashioned hooliganism.

In his much younger days Erdogan was a youth player of Besiktas' arch Istanbul rival Galatasaray. Many of Besiktas' hardcore fans hate for this reason alone. Erdogan seems to live in constant fear that Turkish football fans will unite to overthrow him just as Egyptian football fans united to overthrow their dictator. Twice.

To guard against this Besiktas have been on the receiving end of some special treatment on late.

On December 11th 2016 (11/12/16) Besiktas' stadium was bombed following a match. Then on January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) the Reina nightclub in the Besiktas district was also attacked. Erdogan has claimed that both of these attacks were carried out by ISIL.

Obviously some Besiktas fans will be foolish enough to believe this version of events and support Erdogan as he claims to defend against terrorism. Others will be wise enough to see the threats for what they were and understand that they at least need to pretend that they're supporting Erdogan.

The majority of the Besiktas fans involved in last Thursday's (13/4/17) violence were not from Turkey let alone Istanbul at all. Instead they are Turks living in Germany. Ahead of the April 16th (16/4/17) referendum Erdogan has been aggressively courting German Turks, whipping them up into a frenzy by accusing Germany and all of the Europe Union (EU) of being Nazis amongst other colourful insults.

To make matters worse Lyon has a very high ethnically Armenian population. They were forced to take refuge there after what was then Ottoman Turkey conducted the Armenian Genocide of 1915. When the German Parliament finally recognised the Armenian Genocide in 2015 Erdogan responded furiously including by banning German Parliamentarians from visiting Turkey.

So Lyon v Besiktas was always going to be a category AA match with an extremely high risk of crowd trouble.

The match organisers responded to this threat by seating the Besiktas fans on the upper tier directly above the Lyon fans. So we all got a clear visual representation of what the French normally do when confronted with Turkish aggression.

If Erdogan was going to voluntarily announce the withdrawal of his forces from Syria that announcement would be made quietly on Saturday (15/4/17) before the referendum or loudly on Monday (17/4/17) during one of Erdogan's victory speeches. No such announcement has been made.

So on Tuesday (18/4/17) UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that Britain would be holding a General Election. Well actually that morning Prime Minister May's press office informed the media that she would be making a big announcement later that day. But they gave no further details of what that announcement would be.

This generated a morning of frenzied excitement with everyone desperately waiting for the big announcement.

Yesterday (19/4/17) Borussia Dortmund were knocked out of the Champions League.

I have never thought that this strategy of fluffing up Erdogan to make a voluntary announcement would work. From experience we know that Erdogan is a dictator who cannot be reasoned with. He is one of those people that if you give him an inch he will try and take a mile. Literally.

On Sunday (16/4/17) at least 49% of Turkish voters completely rejected Erdogan.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who monitored the referendum reported that the vote was neither free or fair. They have gone on to effectively accuse Erdogan of stuffing the ballots with at least 2.5 million fraudulent votes changing the result. Turkey's two main opposition parties have filed challenges to the referendum result and those challenges have already been dismissed.

As a result it is going to be extremely difficult for any western democracy to formally recognise the referendum. After all it was only former US President Obama who recognised the result of Turkey's November 2015 General Election which led to the referendum being called.

As such Erdogan is never going to feel powerful again. And no amount of fluffing is going to change that.

19:05 on 20/4/17 (UK date).

Britain Proposes a General Election.

Today (18/4/17) the British Prime Minister Theresa May has proposed holding a General Election on June 8th 2017 (8/6/17).

I say proposed. In 2010 the UK introduced what became the Fixed-term Parliament Act (2011).

This fixes the UK Parliamentary term at five years meaning that the next General Election is not supposed to take place before May 2020. Only Parliament itself can give permission for a General Election to be held before then via a two thirds (super) majority vote.

There seem to be two factors behind Prime Minister May's decision to hold an early election;

The first of these is the 2015 Election Expenses Scandal. In the UK there is a cap on how much each individual candidate can spend in their campaign to get elected. Exceeding this cap automatically has the candidate barred from the election.

The allegation is that at the 2015 General Election the Conservative Party systematically exceeded that spending cap for a number of their candidates. Those candidates and other Conservative Party members went on to commit further criminal offences by filing fraudulent expenses declarations.

By March 15th 2017 (15/3/17) twelve UK police forces had passed files recommending the prosecution of Conservative Party workers and members to the public prosecutor. The exact number of Conservatives liable for prosecution has not been made public but each of those 12 police forces cover several Conservative Party constituencies.

If all those recommended for prosecution go on to be successfully prosecuted then it is highly likely that the Conservatives would lose their current majority of 17 seats. This would bring down the government triggering a General Election.

A General Election that the Conservatives would have to fight with it being an indisputable matter of public record that theirs is the party of criminals and fraudsters.

The second factor driving Prime Minister May's decision is that the current opposition are absolutely awful. The Labour Party in particular has cast itself as the party of Muslim paedophile gangs, anti-Semites and violent extremists.

Recent polling suggests that at a General Election the Conservatives would see their majority increase from 17 seats to 170 seats. The General Election is proposed for Ramadan. With the votes of the Labour Party's core constituency being suppressed the Conservatives majority could well end up exceeding 200 seats.

In an effort to demonstrate just how awful they are both the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats (LibDems) have been calling for a Parliamentary vote on Britain's post-Brexit deal with the European Union (EU). They then propose voting to veto any agreement with the EU.

This will have absolutely no impact on Britain leaving the EU. It would though ensure the absolutely worst possible relationship with the EU post-Brexit.

A Conservative majority of 100+ seats pretty much kills that plan stone dead.

19:35 on 18/4/17 (UK date).

The Korean Detour.

Particularly in the US much of the news recently has been dominated by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North Korea). This coverage strikes me as being out of all proportion with the size of the issue.

The DPRK completed its first successful test of a nuclear Atom Bomb (A-bomb) back in 2006. In 2016 the DPRK completed its first successful test of the much more powerful Hydrogen Bomb (H-Bomb). With these two thresholds passed the DPRK's nuclear program is now complete. That meanss we can't now stop the DPRK becoming a nuclear armed state. It already is one.

One of the main drivers of the DPRK's rapid progress was former US President Barack Obama's support for the DPRK as a way to exert pressure on the DPRK's immediate neighbour China. There are even rumours that Obama supplied the DPRK with missile control software to make them more of a threat. Believe it or not massive basketball fan and DPRK President Kim Jong-Un is far more pro-American than pro-Chinese.

A prime example of Obama's strategy is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) system that he deployed to the Republic of Korea (RoK/South Korea) right at the end of his term.

As the name suggests THAAD defends against high altitude missiles. Missiles fired from the DPRK at either the RoK or Japan would be low to medium altitude missiles which THAAD can't intercept. THAAD batteries stationed in the RoK or Japan would be equally useless against high altitude missiles fired at the US. Although they are high altitude missiles they would still pass over the RoK and Japan at low to medium altitude.

What THAAD does have though is the extremely powerful AN/TPY-2 Radar system. This has a range of 1000km (600 miles). So a THAAD system deployed in the RoK is able to monitor in real time everything going on inside China as far west as the capital Beijing.

Obviously Obama is now no longer US President and he was not replaced by Hillary Clinton. The RoK certainly helped in that. So what's really needed now is for the situation to be allowed to settle.

However on April 6th (6/4/17) US President Donald Trump met with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in Florida, US. Following this meeting President Trump deployed the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to the coast of the RoK is a show of strength.

The problem is that on April 15th (15/4/17) the DPRK marked its national day - the Day of the Sun. The DPRK normally marks this event with shows of its military strength including weapons tests. This year they conducted a failed missile test. If that test hadn't failed or the DPRK had gone further with a H-Bomb test it would have put huge pressure on President Trump to make a further show of strength.

Having already deployed the Carl Vinson group President Trump's only real room for escalate would be a strike on the DPRK. The DPRK would likely respond with conventional artillery strikes on the RoK capital Seoul.

Such strikes on Seoul are expected to kill 100,000 civilians an hour. Every hour until they stop or until all of Seoul's 20m civilians are dead.

17:00 on 18/4/17 (UK date).