The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are currently coming under immense pressure in two main areas; The Tabqa Dam area in Syria and the city of Mosul in northern Iraq.
The town of Tabqa sits around 40km (25 miles) west on Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria - on the southern banks of the Euphrates River. Tabqa Dam sits around 500 metres/yards outside of the town of Tabqa and spans the Euphrates forming Lake Assad.
In November 2016 the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. The second phase of this operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates from Tishrin Dam to Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the SDF succeeded in liberating Jabour Castle which sits on a peninsula in Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam.
On the night of March 21st (21/3/17) into March 22nd (22/3/17) the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) airdropped members of the SDF along with US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and US Marines on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa.
This marked the start of an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. It will see the SDF converge of Tabqa both from the north and the south.
To the south the SDF's first objective to advance on Tabqa airfield liberating a number of small villages as they went. This objective was achieved on March 27th (27/3/17). On March 28th (28/3/17) ISIL launched a small counter-offensive against SDF positions at the airfield which was quickly repelled.
On March 29th (29/3/17) the SDF advanced from the airfield to secure control of the M4 Motorway linking Tabqa to Raqqa via Abu Arif. This places the SDF within 2km (1.2 miles) of Tabqa which is close enough to see it with the naked eye.
The SDF's strategy to liberate Tabqa now appears to be to surround it on three sides in the hope that it will force the ISIL's fighters there to surrender. Based on experience of fighting ISIL elsewhere it seems extremely unlikely this will happen. However it's certainly something worth giving a try.
To the north of Tabqa the SDF's first objective was to advance from Jabour Castle onto the Tabqa Dam. This was achieved on March 24th (25/3/17) with the SDF entered the dam complex. On March 26th (26/3/17) they were able to secure partial control of the dam itself.
On March 27th (27/3/17) under a four hour truce brokered by the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) SDF engineers were able to inspect the dam and declare it to be structurally sound. On March 28th (28/3/17) those SDF engineers were able to open a spillway in order to start draining some of the water from Lake Assad.
I should point out that concerns about Tabqa Dam were never really that it would breach and collapse. Instead it was that the increased water levels from heavy snow/rain fall would cause Lake Assad to overtop flooding the areas upstream of the dam. Even those concerns were moderate rather than urgent. The opening of the spillway have reduced even further.
The entire area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River up to the border with Iraq has long been under the control of the SDF. Currently standing in excess of 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq) this has been designated; "Shangri-La." To the west of the Euphrates along the border with Turkey there is the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road."
In August 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to occupy and invade Garvaghy Road. On Wednesday (29/3/17) Erdogan announced that this operation - designated; "Euphrates Shield" - has ended. However no date has yet been given for the withdrawal of either the regular Turkish forces or the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) to withdraw from the area.
When it was launched back in November 2016 the SDF announced that the final objective of Wrath of Euphrates was to liberate Raqqa itself from ISIL. As the liberation of Tabqa has gotten underway some - most notably France with their looming April 23rd (23/4/17) election - have called for the liberation of Raqqa to begin almost immediately.
In order to see the type of problems that an operation to liberate Raqqa will entail and why it clearly requires much more planning you only need to look at that other area where ISIL are under immense pressure. Mosul in Iraq.
The operation to liberate Raqqa was launched on October 17th 2016 (20/10/16). It was intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces, the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) . It is supported by CJTFOIR.
On January 24th 2017 (24/1/17) the eastern side of Mosul - the so-called; "Left Bank" - had been liberated. Following a short pause the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul - the so-called; "Right Bank" began on February 19th (19/2/17).
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF - who have the lead role - entered western Mosul on two axis. The Federal Police element of the ISF at from the Mosul Airport/Ghazlani Military Base complex at the very south of the city. The Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) element of the ISF entered from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city.
As of March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element has entered
Mosul's Old City district on two axis. One of these was from the
Corniche of the banks of the Tigris River pushing west along Nineveh
Street. The second of these was from the al-Tob neighbourhood pushing
north along al-Shaziani Street.
On March 14th (14/3/17) the Golden Division had reached the western Ramparts of the Old City liberating Mosul Railway station and the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood. This is the western most neighbourhood in a district of the city known as; "New Mosul."
Since then the Golden Division have continued to advance north adjacent to the Old City district. On March 21st (21/3/17) they liberated the Risala and Nablus neighbourhoods. These make up part of the Yarmuk district of the city which sits north-west of the New Mosul district.
On Sunday (26/3/17) the Golden Division element were able to liberate the
Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi al-Ain neighbourhoods. These sit directly south
of the Risala neighbourhood. The Golden Division were also able to
liberate the Industrial Area and the Orouba neighbourhood which sit
directly north of the Risala neighbourhood. Since then the Golden Division have been consolidating their gains.
Yesterday (30/3/17) the ISF's combined Rapid Reaction Force liberated the Qadhib al-Ban neighbourhood. This sits at the most north-easterly tip of the New Mosul district at the junction between the Old City Ramparts/Ibrahim al-Athir Street and the Fifth Bridge Road. It is easily identified by the sports stadium and the Qadhib al-Ban Mausoleum.
Within the Old City the Federal Police element of the ISF have continued to advance on the symbolic Nuri Mosque just north of the junction between Nineveh Street and al-Shaziani Street. However that progress has continued to be slow. Rather than talking in terms of districts, neighbourhoods or streets the gains are being measured in terms of individual houses.
The nature of Mosul's Old City which was largely built in the 8th Century meant that this was always planned to be the slowest part of the entire operation. However what is slowing things down further is the tactics being deployed by ISIL.
What ISIL are doing is that they are gathering the families from every four or five houses on a street and forcing them into one of the houses. The other houses are then rigged with explosives and ISIL fighters wearing suicide vests are moving between them using what are termed; "Rat Holes" cut in the walls of the buildings. This means the ISF never know which house the fighters are in and which houses the civilians are in.
While this is going on ISIL artillery, mortar and rocket positions in other districts such as Az Zanjili to the north are laying down covering fire on the ISIL occupied buildings in the Old City. This covering fire is supported by Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED). ISIL is establishing these VBIED factories and artillery firing positions on buildings which are packed with hidden civilians.
Rather than simply using the civilians as human shields ISIL's aim seems to be to bait the ISF and CJTFOIR into attacking these buildings killing the civilians. In doing this ISIL seem to have two main objectives;
The first of these is to increase pressure on CJTFOIR and the Iraqi government to call a ceasefire or at least stop using airpower in the Mosul operation. This will allow ISIL to cling on to the territory they still hold.
ISIL then hope that the high number of Sunni-Muslim civilians killed by the predominately Shia-Muslim ISF can been used to rally Mosul's remaining Sunni population to ISIL's cause. It was an alliance with the Turkish backed Sunni al-Nujaifi tribe that helped ISIL seize Mosul back in the summer of 2014.
The main issue with the civilian death toll though is not that CJTFOIR or the ISF are being particularly aggressive in their operations. Instead it is a problem with the perception of what the operation to liberate Mosul would entail.
The Mosul operation was launched back in October 2016. At the same time the Syrians backed by Russia were conducting an operation to liberate the eastern half of the Syrian city of Aleppo from the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah coalition.
What the Syrians and Russians did in east Aleppo City was pretty much a textbook example of how to liberate a city of that size.
They started by establishing humanitarian corridors to allow the civilian population to escape. They then dropped thousands of leaflets telling the civilians how to escape and urging them to do so. Next they conducted an air campaign to weaken the Army of Conquests defences before finally sending in a ground force to liberate the area.
The international community's only real objection to the liberation of east Aleppo City is that they were backing the Army of Conquest and the Army of Conquest was losing territory.
So as has been the pattern for the last six years of the war against Syria nations led by Erdogan's Turkey simply started making up accusations about grotesque civilian suffering in the hope they could force a ceasefire allowing the Army of Conquest to continue occupying east Aleppo City.
In order to keep using that tactic to protect the Army of Conquest in Syria CJTFOIR led by former US President Barack Obama set about the Mosul operation trying to prove that you could liberate a major city without there being high numbers of civilians deaths of a mass evacuation of civilians.
So rather than opening humanitarian corridors CJTFOIR under Obama's command dropped thousands leaflets telling Mosul's civilians to remain within their homes for their own safety.
My main concern about Obama is that he did realise he was simply lying to protect the Army of Conquest and actually believed what he was saying was true.
It has though now become obvious to all that the Syrians and Russians were right and you can't liberate a major city without mass civilian evacuations or high numbers of civilian casualties the residents of Mosul are obviously feeling as though they've been lied to.
Although Obama as the man who lied to them all is no longer in power now the operation has begun it is too late to change things.
Recently I've led lots of people suggesting that CJTFOIR and the ISF should try and reduce the toll on Mosul's civilians by opening humanitarian corridors. This is a lot easier to say then do.
In order to open a humanitarian corridor you first need to choose a road to act as that corridor. You then need to send in troops to clear the buildings for at least a street either side of this road to establish a perimeter.
If you have never been in a physical fight it is hard for you to conceive of just how violent that process is. When the Mosul operation began I commented that it wasn't a battle until someone had smashed a bayonet through someone elses' skull. Rather than being a joke I actually know someone who killed an Iraqi soldier in just that way during Desert Storm.
Once you have cleared the buildings on either side of the road you then need to send troops into those buildings to secure that perimeter. For as long as you want to keep the humanitarian corridor open those troops will be sitting in those buildings with a massive target painted on them.
That means they will be constantly saturated with sniper fire, heavy machine gun fire, rocket propelled grenades, mortars, rockets and artillery. Many of them will be killed, many of them will be wounded and others will be so psychologically broken by the bombardment they will no longer be able to fight.
Once you have done all that you still have the problem that ISIL won't let the civilians leave and have had five months making sure they are unable to escape.
My only hope is that these mistakes are not repeated with any potential operation to liberate Raqqa.
16:30 on 31/3/17 (UK date).
Friday, 31 March 2017
Tuesday, 28 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 1, Day 7.
Over the night of last Tuesday (21/3/17) into last Wednesday (22/3/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) launched an operation to liberate both the Syrian town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Damming the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad the Tabqa Dam stands around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. The town of Tabqa sits around 500 metres/yards from the dam on the southern side of the Euphrates.
The first phase of this operation saw the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - helicopter the SDF along with US Marines over the Euphrates to positions just south of Tabqa. This is the first time that CJTFOIR have airdropped the SDF and the first time that the SDF have ever conducted this type of airborne assault.
This first objective of the SDF was to fight their way east from their landing site around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa to Tabqa airfield liberating a number of small villages en route. Tabqa airfield stands around 7km (4 miles) south of Tabqa itself. The SDF entered Tabqa airfield on Friday (24/3/17) and fully liberated it yesterday (27/3/17). They are currently in the process of repelling an ISIL counter attack before advancing on Tabqa itself.
Back in November 2016 the SDF launched operation; "Wrath of Euphrates." Although I assume that has now been reconsidered the original objective of the operation was to isolate and then liberate Raqqa. The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance down the eastern bank of the Euphrates from the Tishrin Dam some 120km (70 miles) north of Tabqa.
That second phase ended on January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) with the SDF liberating Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). This sits on a peninsula on the northern side of Lake Assad - some 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa and some 10km (6 miles) west of Tabqa Dam.
In conjunction with the element advancing on the town of Tabqa from the south the SDF have also been advancing on Tabqa Dam to the north from Qalat Jabar. On Friday (24/3/17) this northern element entered the dam complex. On Sunday (26/3/17) they secured partial control of the dam itself.
This prompted ISIL to issue a warning through loudspeakers to civilians in Raqqa warning them the CJTFOIR airstrikes were about to breach the dam and instructing them to evacuate Raqqa to avoid the impending flood waters. Later in the day ISIL issued a contradictory message to Raqqa's civilian population instructing them to stay within the city.
With there being no suggestion that Tabqa Dam was about to be breached this was simply propaganda on the part of ISIL. They were attempting to scare Raqqa's civilians into supporting them by claiming that CJTFOIR was trying to slaughter Muslims by breaching the dam and only ISIL could protect them. However they then realised that when the dam didn't breach Raqqa's civilians would see that they were lying.
Yesterday (27/3/17) the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) were able to negotiate a four hour ceasefire between ISIL and the SDF within the Tabqa Dam complex. This allowed engineers to inspect the dam and confirm that it is structurally sound and there is no imminent risk of it collapsing.
Within Iraq ISIL are also on the brink of losing their de facto capital in that country - Mosul.
The operation to liberate Mosul was intended as combined one. It would see the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) working together with the ISF taking the lead. It is supported by CJTFOIR.
The operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 24th 2017 (24/3/17) the eastern side of Mosul had been liberated. On February 19th (19/2/17) the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul began.
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul on two axis. The Federal Police element of the ISF entered from the Mosul Airport/Ghazlani Military Base complex at the very south of the city. The Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) entered from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-west of the city.
As of March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element has entered Mosul's Old City district on two axis. One of these was from the Corniche of the banks of the Tigris River pushing west along Nineveh Street. The second of these was from the al-Tob neighbourhood pushing north along al-Shaziani Street. The idea being that the two axis would converge on the symbolically important Nuri Mosque just north of the junction between the two streets.
The Golden Division has succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods of Risala and Nablus. These are the two most eastern neighbourhoods of the Hay al-Yarmuk district which sits directly north of the New Mosul district.
On Saturday (25/3/17) a short operational pause was declared in the Mosul operation. This has widely been reported as being in response to concerns about increasing casualties amongst Mosul's civilian population.
What's actually happened is that ISIL have not been able to mount as strong a defence of western Mosul as had been expected. As a result various units of the ISF have been able to advance much further than planned. This puts them out of position relative to each other requiring a short pause in order to get everybody to where they're meant to be.
The operational pause only really applied to the Federal Police element of the ISF operating within the Old City district.
So on Saturday (25/3/17) through to Sunday (26/3/17) the Golden Division element were able to liberate the Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi al-Ain neighbourhoods. These sit directly south of the Risala neighbourhood. The Golden Division were also able to liberate the Industrial Area and the Orouba neighbourhood which sit directly north of the Risala neighbourhood.
Operations within the Old City resumed yesterday (27/3/17). As expected progress within this area has been extremely slow. However it has continued with the Federal Police advancing around 600 metres/yards forward towards the Nuri Mosque on both the southern and eastern axis.
Although it was called for wider tactical reasons the operational pause has provided an opportunity to discuss the issue of civilian casualties.
On Saturday (26/3/17) a natural gas explosion occurred in a residential neighbourhood of the Wirral in the north-west of England, UK. This completely destroyed several buildings in the centre of a town square and badly damaged the buildings overlooking the square. It fits in with a pattern of similar incidents that have occurred across the globe including as far away as Inner Mongolia in China.
So the issue of civilian casualties in Mosul is certainly one that is being discussed at the highest levels.
However if the people having these discussions were able to have them openly they would simply issue written statements. That is certainly easier than causing hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage and scaring the crap out of their own citizens.
Therefore I can't really expand much on the nature of the discussions beyond assuring people that the issue is certainly not being ignored and people are working to try and find a solution.
How difficult it is to find a solution is illustrated by one particular incident that is currently under investigation by CJTFOIR which happened in the al-Jadida neighbour just west of the Old City on March 17th (17/3/17).
At around 17:20 (GMT) on 28/3/17 (UK date) I will pick this up later.
Edited at around 18:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date) to add:
Throughout this war ISIL most favoured tactic has been the use of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). These are driven by a suicide bombing at groups of opposing troops and then detonated in order to kill as many of them as possible and break through their lines.
The term; "VBIED" refers to any vehicle carrying or bearing an improvised explosive device. This can range from anything as small as a motor scooter all the way up all the way up to 7.5 Tonne trucks.
Last Tuesday (21/3/17) the UK marked the death of Martin McGuiness. He was long associated with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). One of their most famous attacks on the British mainland was the April 24th 1993 (24/4/93) Bishopgate's bombing.
Although not a suicide attack this involved placing a VBIED at the junction of the A10 Bishopsgate Road and Wormwood Street close to Liverpool Street railway station. When the bomb exploded it destroyed buildings across 1kmsq (0.6milesq) from Liverpool Street station in the north to Threadneedle Street - home of the Bank of England - in the south.
Another very famous PIRA attack on London was the February 9th 1996 (9/2/96) Docklands bombing. Again although not a suicide attack this saw a VBIED placed outside South Quay Docklands Light Railway station. When the bomb exploded it created a crater 10 metres/yards wide and 3 metres/yards deep. It completely destroyed three high-rise buildings nearby - the Midland Bank Building and South Quay Towers I & II.
On April 19th 1995 (19/4/95) Timothy McVeigh of no formal political affiliation parked a VBIED outside the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US. Again this wasn't a suicide attack but when the bomb exploded it almost completely destroyed the 9 storey Murrah building along with destroying other buildings across a 3.2kmsq (1.9 milesq) area.
So when we talk about VBIED's we are talking about potentially extremely large bombs. All of the three examples I've listed here exploded with the equivalent power of around 1.3 Tonnes of TNT. That is around five times the power of the 230kg (500lb) Paveway bombs that CJTFOIR and the Iraqi Air Force typically use against ISIL.
What appears to have happened on March 17th (17/3/17) in al-Jadida is that ISIL were using one of these very large VBIED's to attack a Golden Division position. The Golden Division commander on the ground requested that CJTFOIR carry out an airstrike to stop this VBIED reaching its target.
CJTFOIR fulfilled this request most likely with a Hellfire missile fired from a drone. The Hellfire missile is much smaller than the Paveway bomb exploding with the equivalent power of just 9kg (20lbs).
So being a highly targeted weapon the Hellfire missile likely destroyed the VBIED without causing much damage to the surrounding area. However in the process the missile set-off the VBIED destroying the surrounding buildings and killing and estimated 130 civilians.
The consequence of CJTFOIR not carrying out the airstrike is that the VBIED would have been detonated by ISIL a little further down the street. This would have meant that all the buildings that were destroyed would still have been destroyed and all the people killed would still have been killed. The only difference is that a large number of the Golden Division would also have been killed.
Obviously the lives of ISF soldiers are not more important than the lives of Mosul's civilians.
However the brutal fact is that if ISIL kill all of the ISF's soldiers before the ISF are able to kill all of ISIL fighters then that means ISIL have won.
19:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date).
Damming the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad the Tabqa Dam stands around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. The town of Tabqa sits around 500 metres/yards from the dam on the southern side of the Euphrates.
The first phase of this operation saw the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - helicopter the SDF along with US Marines over the Euphrates to positions just south of Tabqa. This is the first time that CJTFOIR have airdropped the SDF and the first time that the SDF have ever conducted this type of airborne assault.
This first objective of the SDF was to fight their way east from their landing site around 12km (7 miles) west of Tabqa to Tabqa airfield liberating a number of small villages en route. Tabqa airfield stands around 7km (4 miles) south of Tabqa itself. The SDF entered Tabqa airfield on Friday (24/3/17) and fully liberated it yesterday (27/3/17). They are currently in the process of repelling an ISIL counter attack before advancing on Tabqa itself.
Back in November 2016 the SDF launched operation; "Wrath of Euphrates." Although I assume that has now been reconsidered the original objective of the operation was to isolate and then liberate Raqqa. The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance down the eastern bank of the Euphrates from the Tishrin Dam some 120km (70 miles) north of Tabqa.
That second phase ended on January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) with the SDF liberating Jabour Castle (Qalat Jabar). This sits on a peninsula on the northern side of Lake Assad - some 45km (27 miles) west of Raqqa and some 10km (6 miles) west of Tabqa Dam.
In conjunction with the element advancing on the town of Tabqa from the south the SDF have also been advancing on Tabqa Dam to the north from Qalat Jabar. On Friday (24/3/17) this northern element entered the dam complex. On Sunday (26/3/17) they secured partial control of the dam itself.
This prompted ISIL to issue a warning through loudspeakers to civilians in Raqqa warning them the CJTFOIR airstrikes were about to breach the dam and instructing them to evacuate Raqqa to avoid the impending flood waters. Later in the day ISIL issued a contradictory message to Raqqa's civilian population instructing them to stay within the city.
With there being no suggestion that Tabqa Dam was about to be breached this was simply propaganda on the part of ISIL. They were attempting to scare Raqqa's civilians into supporting them by claiming that CJTFOIR was trying to slaughter Muslims by breaching the dam and only ISIL could protect them. However they then realised that when the dam didn't breach Raqqa's civilians would see that they were lying.
Yesterday (27/3/17) the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) were able to negotiate a four hour ceasefire between ISIL and the SDF within the Tabqa Dam complex. This allowed engineers to inspect the dam and confirm that it is structurally sound and there is no imminent risk of it collapsing.
Within Iraq ISIL are also on the brink of losing their de facto capital in that country - Mosul.
The operation to liberate Mosul was intended as combined one. It would see the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) working together with the ISF taking the lead. It is supported by CJTFOIR.
The operation began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). By January 24th 2017 (24/3/17) the eastern side of Mosul had been liberated. On February 19th (19/2/17) the operation to liberate the western side of Mosul began.
On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul on two axis. The Federal Police element of the ISF entered from the Mosul Airport/Ghazlani Military Base complex at the very south of the city. The Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) entered from the al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-west of the city.
As of March 21st (21/3/17) the Federal Police element has entered Mosul's Old City district on two axis. One of these was from the Corniche of the banks of the Tigris River pushing west along Nineveh Street. The second of these was from the al-Tob neighbourhood pushing north along al-Shaziani Street. The idea being that the two axis would converge on the symbolically important Nuri Mosque just north of the junction between the two streets.
The Golden Division has succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods of Risala and Nablus. These are the two most eastern neighbourhoods of the Hay al-Yarmuk district which sits directly north of the New Mosul district.
On Saturday (25/3/17) a short operational pause was declared in the Mosul operation. This has widely been reported as being in response to concerns about increasing casualties amongst Mosul's civilian population.
What's actually happened is that ISIL have not been able to mount as strong a defence of western Mosul as had been expected. As a result various units of the ISF have been able to advance much further than planned. This puts them out of position relative to each other requiring a short pause in order to get everybody to where they're meant to be.
The operational pause only really applied to the Federal Police element of the ISF operating within the Old City district.
So on Saturday (25/3/17) through to Sunday (26/3/17) the Golden Division element were able to liberate the Rajm al-Hadid and Wadi al-Ain neighbourhoods. These sit directly south of the Risala neighbourhood. The Golden Division were also able to liberate the Industrial Area and the Orouba neighbourhood which sit directly north of the Risala neighbourhood.
Operations within the Old City resumed yesterday (27/3/17). As expected progress within this area has been extremely slow. However it has continued with the Federal Police advancing around 600 metres/yards forward towards the Nuri Mosque on both the southern and eastern axis.
Although it was called for wider tactical reasons the operational pause has provided an opportunity to discuss the issue of civilian casualties.
On Saturday (26/3/17) a natural gas explosion occurred in a residential neighbourhood of the Wirral in the north-west of England, UK. This completely destroyed several buildings in the centre of a town square and badly damaged the buildings overlooking the square. It fits in with a pattern of similar incidents that have occurred across the globe including as far away as Inner Mongolia in China.
So the issue of civilian casualties in Mosul is certainly one that is being discussed at the highest levels.
However if the people having these discussions were able to have them openly they would simply issue written statements. That is certainly easier than causing hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage and scaring the crap out of their own citizens.
Therefore I can't really expand much on the nature of the discussions beyond assuring people that the issue is certainly not being ignored and people are working to try and find a solution.
How difficult it is to find a solution is illustrated by one particular incident that is currently under investigation by CJTFOIR which happened in the al-Jadida neighbour just west of the Old City on March 17th (17/3/17).
At around 17:20 (GMT) on 28/3/17 (UK date) I will pick this up later.
Edited at around 18:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date) to add:
Throughout this war ISIL most favoured tactic has been the use of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). These are driven by a suicide bombing at groups of opposing troops and then detonated in order to kill as many of them as possible and break through their lines.
The term; "VBIED" refers to any vehicle carrying or bearing an improvised explosive device. This can range from anything as small as a motor scooter all the way up all the way up to 7.5 Tonne trucks.
Last Tuesday (21/3/17) the UK marked the death of Martin McGuiness. He was long associated with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). One of their most famous attacks on the British mainland was the April 24th 1993 (24/4/93) Bishopgate's bombing.
Although not a suicide attack this involved placing a VBIED at the junction of the A10 Bishopsgate Road and Wormwood Street close to Liverpool Street railway station. When the bomb exploded it destroyed buildings across 1kmsq (0.6milesq) from Liverpool Street station in the north to Threadneedle Street - home of the Bank of England - in the south.
Another very famous PIRA attack on London was the February 9th 1996 (9/2/96) Docklands bombing. Again although not a suicide attack this saw a VBIED placed outside South Quay Docklands Light Railway station. When the bomb exploded it created a crater 10 metres/yards wide and 3 metres/yards deep. It completely destroyed three high-rise buildings nearby - the Midland Bank Building and South Quay Towers I & II.
On April 19th 1995 (19/4/95) Timothy McVeigh of no formal political affiliation parked a VBIED outside the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US. Again this wasn't a suicide attack but when the bomb exploded it almost completely destroyed the 9 storey Murrah building along with destroying other buildings across a 3.2kmsq (1.9 milesq) area.
So when we talk about VBIED's we are talking about potentially extremely large bombs. All of the three examples I've listed here exploded with the equivalent power of around 1.3 Tonnes of TNT. That is around five times the power of the 230kg (500lb) Paveway bombs that CJTFOIR and the Iraqi Air Force typically use against ISIL.
What appears to have happened on March 17th (17/3/17) in al-Jadida is that ISIL were using one of these very large VBIED's to attack a Golden Division position. The Golden Division commander on the ground requested that CJTFOIR carry out an airstrike to stop this VBIED reaching its target.
CJTFOIR fulfilled this request most likely with a Hellfire missile fired from a drone. The Hellfire missile is much smaller than the Paveway bomb exploding with the equivalent power of just 9kg (20lbs).
So being a highly targeted weapon the Hellfire missile likely destroyed the VBIED without causing much damage to the surrounding area. However in the process the missile set-off the VBIED destroying the surrounding buildings and killing and estimated 130 civilians.
The consequence of CJTFOIR not carrying out the airstrike is that the VBIED would have been detonated by ISIL a little further down the street. This would have meant that all the buildings that were destroyed would still have been destroyed and all the people killed would still have been killed. The only difference is that a large number of the Golden Division would also have been killed.
Obviously the lives of ISF soldiers are not more important than the lives of Mosul's civilians.
However the brutal fact is that if ISIL kill all of the ISF's soldiers before the ISF are able to kill all of ISIL fighters then that means ISIL have won.
19:55 on 28/3/17 (UK date).
Monday, 27 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 1, Day 6.
In my post on Friday (24/3/17) I wrote about how the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat in both Iraq and Syria. Their allies the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition are also on the brink of defeat within Syria.
Both of these groups are now looking towards the United Nations (UN) backed Geneva Process on Syria to save their skins. The latest round of meetings within in the Geneva Process began last Thursday (23/3/17).
As with the latest round of meetings within the Astana Process which took place on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) the start of the Geneva meetings were accompanied by an upsurge in violence.
Within Syria the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault on Syrian positions around the city of Hama. Syria's longstanding ally Russia suffered an ISIL attack which killed six National Guard soldiers within the autonomous region of Chechnya. Even the UK suffered an attack at the Parliament building in London on March 22nd (22/3/17).
Friday (24/3/17) also a saw a suicide bomb attack near the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Bangladesh's capital Dhaka. Fortunately the attack succeeded in killing no-one but himself.
During the six years of the conflict in Syria Bangladesh has been a growth in extreme Sunni, Salafist Islam like that which is practised by the Army of Conquest. As a result Bangladesh has steadily become an increasingly hostile environment both for non-Muslims and even moderate Muslims. In the early part of 2016 barely a week went by without non-Muslims, secularists or gay-rights activists being murdered by Islamist extremists.
The most significant recent attack in Bangladesh though occurred at the Holey Artisan Bakery restaurant in Dhaka on July 1st 2016 (1/7/17). In total 29 people including 5 attackers and two police officers when terrorists claiming to represent ISIL stormed the restaurant and conducted a massacre.
Within intelligence circles this attack is considered highly sensitive. It seemed to be the follow up chapter to the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) attack against the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, US in which 49 people were murdered in similar circumstances. Also at the exact time that the attack began I was having lunch in one of my mothers in a very similar style restaurant thousands of miles away in London.
Demonstrating the global nature of the threat from Islamist terrorism Friday (24/3/17) also saw an attack in the Central African Republic (CAR). Here 50 people in several villages in the Bambari region were massacred by a Sunni Islamist militia.
Last Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack in London was carried out by a man identified as Adrian Ajao. It has though since emerged that rather than being his birthname this is his stepfather's name which he adopted at a very young age before going on to adopt the name Khalid Masood. The family name "Ajao" is West African in nature.
West Africa and Nigeria in particular has long suffered at the hands of Islamist terrorism. Most notably the Boko Haram group. This has its roots in the 2011 war against Libya.
Following the overthrow of the Libyan government many of the Islamist fighters in the country moved south to Mali to form the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOAJWA). This Al Qaeda affiliated group went on to establish a self-styled Islamist Caliphate in northern Mali.
In 2013 France intervened to support the Malian government against the MOAJWA defeating them in a little under six weeks. However the group fragmented to reemerge as Boko Haram in Nigeria and its neighbours. At the same time the Islamist Seleka (rebel) Alliance overthrew the government in the Central African Republic (CAR).
As within Nigeria former US President Barack Obama's childlike mind saw the violence in the CAR as simply oppressed Muslims chafing against the persecution of their white devil oppressors. So he responded by negotiating a power sharing agreement between the CAR's Christian population and the Seleka Alliance. Friday's (24/3/17) massacre was carried out by a faction within the Seleka Alliance - Unity of Central African People (UPC) - looking to increase their influence within the power sharing government.
The main sponsor of both ISIL and the Army of Conquest has been Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He has long used violence and intimidation to force the international community to continue to allow him to support these terror groups.
Particularly in dealing with the European Union (EU) Erdogan's main tactic has been to send floods of irregular migrants from Turkey into the EU. The intention is to destabilise society and force those EU nations to sort through those hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants to determine which of them are legitimate refugees while providing housing, food and other services to all of them.
A particular challenge caused by this flood of irregular migrants is security. This has been made much worse because Erdogan has also included within this migrant flow Islamist terrorists with instructions to carry out terror attacks against EU nations. Most notably the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres in France.
The third and less talked about string to Erdogan's bow has been to use Turkey's intelligence and diplomatic services to organise ethnic Turks already living within EU nations into a sort of fifth column against the governments of those nations.
One of the most high profile examples of this occurred on February 15th 2017 (15/2/17) in Germany. Here the Germans expelled four Imans belonging to the Turkish government's Diyanet religious affairs department. They had been working with the Turkish diplomatic mission to Germany to collect information on and intimidate ethnic Turks - often German citizens - who disagree with Erdogan.
On Sunday (26/3/17) Turkey's immediate neighbour and EU member Bulgaria held its Parliamentary election. Traditionally ethnically Turkish Bulgarians have supported the Movement for Rights and Freedoms Party (DPS). However the DPS recently urged Bulgaria's Turks not to support Erdogan.
So Erdogan set about busing hundreds of thousands of Turks into Bulgaria to vote for the rival Democrats for Unity, Solidarity and Tolerance Party (DOST). This forced Bulgaria to close its border to keep this illegal voters out.
Erdogan is currently seeking permission to change Turkey's constitution to give him absolute power in a public referendum to be held on April 15th (15/4/17). He was blocked in his effort to change the constitution without a public referendum by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) defeat in the June 2015 election.
Following this defeat Erdogan simply called a second election in November 2015. He secured a narrow victory in this by declaring war against Turkey's own Kurdish population and Kurds in Iraq and Syria in order to secure the support of Turkey's Ultranationalists.
Erdogan is hoping that it is this support from the Ultranationalists that will help him secure victory in the referendum. As a result as the date of the referendum approaches Erdogan has been behaving increasingly aggressively.
Just on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan ordered the Turkish air force to conduct airstrikes against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - including US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with them - close to the Syrian town of Manbij. This increasingly aggressive behaviour by Erdogan has led to EU nations to become increasingly concerned about his actions within their countries - particularly his efforts to build his fifth column.
Matters came to a head on March 4th (4/3/17) when Germany withdrew permission for AKP rallies in Gaggenau, Cologne and Frechen. Erdogan initially responded by issuing bomb threats against the venues where the rallies had been scheduled to take place. He then escalated things further by accusing the Germans of being Nazis.
These threats by Erdogan were considered so serious that on March 9th (9/3/17) German authorities issued a generalised threat warning that Erdogan would conduct a retaliatory terror attack somewhere in south-west Germany at some point in the future. That threat materialised that very evening with a stabbing attack at a railway station in the south-west German city of Dusseldorf.
The Germans have an extremely poor record of acknowledging when they have been victims of a terror attack. For example they initially claimed that the Muslim Iranian who carried out a mass shooting at a shopping mall on the sight of the 1972 Munich Olympic games on July 22nd 2016 (22/7/16) was a white supremacist.
As a result Germany's decision to blame the attack in Dusseldorf despite having issued an earlier terror warning prompted a lot of angry discussions with its neighbours. For example later that night there was a shooting in Switzerland - right on Germany's south-western border. Then on March 11th (11/3/17) Germany closed a shopping mall in the south-west city of Essen claiming there was an imminent and specific terror threat.
In response to Germany's banning of AKP rallies and the resultant attack in Dusseldorf many other EU nations including Austria and Sweden also cancelled AKP rallies planned in their countries for March 11th.
When authorities in the Netherlands announced plans to cancel an AKP rally in Rotterdam that evening which had been scheduled to be attended by AKP foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu the AKP responded by threatening to impose sanctions against the Netherlands. This prompted the Netherlands to refuse entry to its territory by Cavusoglu and all other AKP ministers.
The AKP completely disregarded the Netherlands right to do this and secretly sent another AKP minister -
Sayan Kaya - to Rotterdam. In an effort to prevent Sayan Kaya being deported from the Netherlands the AKP gathered its supporters in the streets outside the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam.
This failed attempt to prevent the Netherlands exercising its right to say who is and who isn't allowed to enter the country provoked a night of rioting. At one point Sayan Kaya's protection detail drew their weapons in an attempt to stop the Dutch police. This forced the Dutch police to deploy their equivalent of a SWAT team in what developed into an armed standoff.
In response to events in Rotterdam almost all EU nations have now banned all AKP rallies in their nations. This has caused Erdogan to escalate the rhetoric intensely accusing the EU nations to be Nazis and threatening to use ethnic Turks living within EU nations to lead a Turkish takeover of those nations.
Probably the clearest example of Erdogan directing a terror attack against an EU nation was the March 22nd 2016 (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium against Zavertam airport and the cities Metro system.
Within Turkey March 18th is considered victory day used to mark victory in the 1915 - 1916 Canakkale/Gallipoli campaign. In his 2016 Canakkale speech Erdogan addressed the issue of terrorism and said simply; "Brussels will be next." Four days later Brussels was attacked.
This year Canakkale Day occurred on Saturday March 18th (18/3/17). Inevitably the first anniversary of the Brussels attacks occurred on Wednesday March 22nd (22/3/17). Erdogan again used his Canakkale speech to condemn the EU and urge ethnic Turks living in EU countries to have as many children as possible in order to conquer Europe by stealth.
On March 18th (18/3/17) a 39 year old French Muslim of North Africa origin attacked a policewoman in the Garges-les-Gonesse district of Paris. He went on to hijack a car and drive to Orly Airport just outside Paris where he held an knife to the throat of a soldier in an attempt to steal her weapon before being shot and killed by her colleagues.
Much as I dislike Erdogan the amateurish nature of this failed attack means that I don't think he intentionally directed it. Instead the attacker whipped himself up into a frenzy due to all of Erdogan's campaign rhetoric along with media coverage of events in Germany and Rotterdam and the impending anniversary of the Brussels attacks.
However Erdogan has certainly contributed to the rhetoric that inspired the Orly attacker and has continued to do so since. On the anniversary of the Brussels attacks and the morning of the London attack Erdogan gave a speech in which he claimed that Europeans will soon be unable to walk the streets in safety.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) - the day after the London attack and the Brussels anniversary - a French Muslim of North African origin tried and failed to drive a car into pedestrians along the Meir shopping street. He was stopped by soldiers who have become a common sight on the streets of both France and Belgium in response to the terror threat.
Again rather than being a directed attack I think the Antwerp attack was the actions of a self-motivated copycat. He'd seen the coverage of the previous day's London attack and decided to try and give it a go himself.
20:35 on 27/3/17 (UK date).
Both of these groups are now looking towards the United Nations (UN) backed Geneva Process on Syria to save their skins. The latest round of meetings within in the Geneva Process began last Thursday (23/3/17).
As with the latest round of meetings within the Astana Process which took place on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) the start of the Geneva meetings were accompanied by an upsurge in violence.
Within Syria the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault on Syrian positions around the city of Hama. Syria's longstanding ally Russia suffered an ISIL attack which killed six National Guard soldiers within the autonomous region of Chechnya. Even the UK suffered an attack at the Parliament building in London on March 22nd (22/3/17).
Friday (24/3/17) also a saw a suicide bomb attack near the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Bangladesh's capital Dhaka. Fortunately the attack succeeded in killing no-one but himself.
During the six years of the conflict in Syria Bangladesh has been a growth in extreme Sunni, Salafist Islam like that which is practised by the Army of Conquest. As a result Bangladesh has steadily become an increasingly hostile environment both for non-Muslims and even moderate Muslims. In the early part of 2016 barely a week went by without non-Muslims, secularists or gay-rights activists being murdered by Islamist extremists.
The most significant recent attack in Bangladesh though occurred at the Holey Artisan Bakery restaurant in Dhaka on July 1st 2016 (1/7/17). In total 29 people including 5 attackers and two police officers when terrorists claiming to represent ISIL stormed the restaurant and conducted a massacre.
Within intelligence circles this attack is considered highly sensitive. It seemed to be the follow up chapter to the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) attack against the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, US in which 49 people were murdered in similar circumstances. Also at the exact time that the attack began I was having lunch in one of my mothers in a very similar style restaurant thousands of miles away in London.
Demonstrating the global nature of the threat from Islamist terrorism Friday (24/3/17) also saw an attack in the Central African Republic (CAR). Here 50 people in several villages in the Bambari region were massacred by a Sunni Islamist militia.
Last Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack in London was carried out by a man identified as Adrian Ajao. It has though since emerged that rather than being his birthname this is his stepfather's name which he adopted at a very young age before going on to adopt the name Khalid Masood. The family name "Ajao" is West African in nature.
West Africa and Nigeria in particular has long suffered at the hands of Islamist terrorism. Most notably the Boko Haram group. This has its roots in the 2011 war against Libya.
Following the overthrow of the Libyan government many of the Islamist fighters in the country moved south to Mali to form the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOAJWA). This Al Qaeda affiliated group went on to establish a self-styled Islamist Caliphate in northern Mali.
In 2013 France intervened to support the Malian government against the MOAJWA defeating them in a little under six weeks. However the group fragmented to reemerge as Boko Haram in Nigeria and its neighbours. At the same time the Islamist Seleka (rebel) Alliance overthrew the government in the Central African Republic (CAR).
As within Nigeria former US President Barack Obama's childlike mind saw the violence in the CAR as simply oppressed Muslims chafing against the persecution of their white devil oppressors. So he responded by negotiating a power sharing agreement between the CAR's Christian population and the Seleka Alliance. Friday's (24/3/17) massacre was carried out by a faction within the Seleka Alliance - Unity of Central African People (UPC) - looking to increase their influence within the power sharing government.
The main sponsor of both ISIL and the Army of Conquest has been Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He has long used violence and intimidation to force the international community to continue to allow him to support these terror groups.
Particularly in dealing with the European Union (EU) Erdogan's main tactic has been to send floods of irregular migrants from Turkey into the EU. The intention is to destabilise society and force those EU nations to sort through those hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants to determine which of them are legitimate refugees while providing housing, food and other services to all of them.
A particular challenge caused by this flood of irregular migrants is security. This has been made much worse because Erdogan has also included within this migrant flow Islamist terrorists with instructions to carry out terror attacks against EU nations. Most notably the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres in France.
The third and less talked about string to Erdogan's bow has been to use Turkey's intelligence and diplomatic services to organise ethnic Turks already living within EU nations into a sort of fifth column against the governments of those nations.
One of the most high profile examples of this occurred on February 15th 2017 (15/2/17) in Germany. Here the Germans expelled four Imans belonging to the Turkish government's Diyanet religious affairs department. They had been working with the Turkish diplomatic mission to Germany to collect information on and intimidate ethnic Turks - often German citizens - who disagree with Erdogan.
On Sunday (26/3/17) Turkey's immediate neighbour and EU member Bulgaria held its Parliamentary election. Traditionally ethnically Turkish Bulgarians have supported the Movement for Rights and Freedoms Party (DPS). However the DPS recently urged Bulgaria's Turks not to support Erdogan.
So Erdogan set about busing hundreds of thousands of Turks into Bulgaria to vote for the rival Democrats for Unity, Solidarity and Tolerance Party (DOST). This forced Bulgaria to close its border to keep this illegal voters out.
Erdogan is currently seeking permission to change Turkey's constitution to give him absolute power in a public referendum to be held on April 15th (15/4/17). He was blocked in his effort to change the constitution without a public referendum by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) defeat in the June 2015 election.
Following this defeat Erdogan simply called a second election in November 2015. He secured a narrow victory in this by declaring war against Turkey's own Kurdish population and Kurds in Iraq and Syria in order to secure the support of Turkey's Ultranationalists.
Erdogan is hoping that it is this support from the Ultranationalists that will help him secure victory in the referendum. As a result as the date of the referendum approaches Erdogan has been behaving increasingly aggressively.
Just on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan ordered the Turkish air force to conduct airstrikes against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - including US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) embedded with them - close to the Syrian town of Manbij. This increasingly aggressive behaviour by Erdogan has led to EU nations to become increasingly concerned about his actions within their countries - particularly his efforts to build his fifth column.
Matters came to a head on March 4th (4/3/17) when Germany withdrew permission for AKP rallies in Gaggenau, Cologne and Frechen. Erdogan initially responded by issuing bomb threats against the venues where the rallies had been scheduled to take place. He then escalated things further by accusing the Germans of being Nazis.
These threats by Erdogan were considered so serious that on March 9th (9/3/17) German authorities issued a generalised threat warning that Erdogan would conduct a retaliatory terror attack somewhere in south-west Germany at some point in the future. That threat materialised that very evening with a stabbing attack at a railway station in the south-west German city of Dusseldorf.
The Germans have an extremely poor record of acknowledging when they have been victims of a terror attack. For example they initially claimed that the Muslim Iranian who carried out a mass shooting at a shopping mall on the sight of the 1972 Munich Olympic games on July 22nd 2016 (22/7/16) was a white supremacist.
As a result Germany's decision to blame the attack in Dusseldorf despite having issued an earlier terror warning prompted a lot of angry discussions with its neighbours. For example later that night there was a shooting in Switzerland - right on Germany's south-western border. Then on March 11th (11/3/17) Germany closed a shopping mall in the south-west city of Essen claiming there was an imminent and specific terror threat.
In response to Germany's banning of AKP rallies and the resultant attack in Dusseldorf many other EU nations including Austria and Sweden also cancelled AKP rallies planned in their countries for March 11th.
When authorities in the Netherlands announced plans to cancel an AKP rally in Rotterdam that evening which had been scheduled to be attended by AKP foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu the AKP responded by threatening to impose sanctions against the Netherlands. This prompted the Netherlands to refuse entry to its territory by Cavusoglu and all other AKP ministers.
The AKP completely disregarded the Netherlands right to do this and secretly sent another AKP minister -
Sayan Kaya - to Rotterdam. In an effort to prevent Sayan Kaya being deported from the Netherlands the AKP gathered its supporters in the streets outside the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam.
This failed attempt to prevent the Netherlands exercising its right to say who is and who isn't allowed to enter the country provoked a night of rioting. At one point Sayan Kaya's protection detail drew their weapons in an attempt to stop the Dutch police. This forced the Dutch police to deploy their equivalent of a SWAT team in what developed into an armed standoff.
In response to events in Rotterdam almost all EU nations have now banned all AKP rallies in their nations. This has caused Erdogan to escalate the rhetoric intensely accusing the EU nations to be Nazis and threatening to use ethnic Turks living within EU nations to lead a Turkish takeover of those nations.
Probably the clearest example of Erdogan directing a terror attack against an EU nation was the March 22nd 2016 (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium against Zavertam airport and the cities Metro system.
Within Turkey March 18th is considered victory day used to mark victory in the 1915 - 1916 Canakkale/Gallipoli campaign. In his 2016 Canakkale speech Erdogan addressed the issue of terrorism and said simply; "Brussels will be next." Four days later Brussels was attacked.
This year Canakkale Day occurred on Saturday March 18th (18/3/17). Inevitably the first anniversary of the Brussels attacks occurred on Wednesday March 22nd (22/3/17). Erdogan again used his Canakkale speech to condemn the EU and urge ethnic Turks living in EU countries to have as many children as possible in order to conquer Europe by stealth.
On March 18th (18/3/17) a 39 year old French Muslim of North Africa origin attacked a policewoman in the Garges-les-Gonesse district of Paris. He went on to hijack a car and drive to Orly Airport just outside Paris where he held an knife to the throat of a soldier in an attempt to steal her weapon before being shot and killed by her colleagues.
Much as I dislike Erdogan the amateurish nature of this failed attack means that I don't think he intentionally directed it. Instead the attacker whipped himself up into a frenzy due to all of Erdogan's campaign rhetoric along with media coverage of events in Germany and Rotterdam and the impending anniversary of the Brussels attacks.
However Erdogan has certainly contributed to the rhetoric that inspired the Orly attacker and has continued to do so since. On the anniversary of the Brussels attacks and the morning of the London attack Erdogan gave a speech in which he claimed that Europeans will soon be unable to walk the streets in safety.
On March 23rd (23/3/17) - the day after the London attack and the Brussels anniversary - a French Muslim of North African origin tried and failed to drive a car into pedestrians along the Meir shopping street. He was stopped by soldiers who have become a common sight on the streets of both France and Belgium in response to the terror threat.
Again rather than being a directed attack I think the Antwerp attack was the actions of a self-motivated copycat. He'd seen the coverage of the previous day's London attack and decided to try and give it a go himself.
20:35 on 27/3/17 (UK date).
Friday, 24 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 1, Day 3.
In the summer of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat.
Despite intense international condemnation the Syrians had managed to restrict them to an area in the Euphrates River basin.
So in the winter of 2013 ISIL almost completely abandoned fighting in Syria and invaded Iraq's south-western Anbar Province instead. In the summer of 2014 ISIL invaded Iraq's north-western Nineveh plains region including the city of Mosul. That city went on to become ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
As they captured Mosul ISIL also seized the predominately Kurdish Yezidi town of Sinjar/Shingal some 500km (300 miles) to the west.
Considering followers of the Yezidi religion to be devil worshippers ISIL immediately massacred 5,000 of Shingal's men and boys. They kidnapped a similar number of the town's women and girls to use as sex slaves. ISIL then forced Sinjar's remaining 60,000 residents up Mount Sinjar/Shingal to die of starvation and thirst.
This act finally shamed former US President Barack Obama into action. The US-led anti-ISIL coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) was established.
Despite a new coalition being formed with its fancy name and shiny logo initially CJTFOIR's main objective seemed to be to protect ISIL at all costs.
For example in March and April of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the associated Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) conducted an operation to liberate the city of Tikrit from. Under Obama CJTFOIR was forbidden from participating in this operation.
However it is not possible for a coalition of some of the World's most powerful air forces to spend three years bombing ISIL without it having some effect. So ISIL are currently in very bad shape.
The last time that ISIL were able to launch a successful offensive operation was all the way back in May 2015 when they captured all of the Iraqi city of Ramadi. However since then the Iraqis have successfully liberated Ramadi from ISIL along with the near-by city of Fallujah. They are currently well on their way to liberating Mosul from the group too.
Within Syria ISIL are also on the brink of defeat.
By January 2015 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had repelled a sustained onslaught on the city of Kobane. Since then they have formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition and expanded the area north of the Euphrates River - designated; "Shangri-La" - to in excess of 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).
This restricts ISIL to just the area along the banks of the river - predominately the city of Raqqa and part of the city of Deir-ez-Zour. The SDF are also in control of a smaller area in the west of Syria centred around the city of Afrin which is designated as; "The Afrin Canton."
Over the night of Tuesday (21/3/17) into Wednesday (22/3/17) CJTFOIR helicoptered members of the SDF to the southern bank of the Euphrates. This is the start of an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the near-by Tabqa Dam from ISIL. Damning the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad this sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa and represents ISIL's main crossing point across the Euphrates from Raqqa to the rest of Syria.
Recent heavy rain/snow fall coupled with ISIL's mis-management of the dam has meant that the waters in Lake Assad have rising dramatically in recent months. This creates a very real risk that the SDF controlled areas upstream of the dam will flood or that the dam will burst explosively flooding the areas downstream. As a result everyone will feel much more relaxed once the dam is under the control of people who know what they are doing.
However the dramatic Tabqa Dam operation was launched as the global coalition on ISIL - which is much wider than CJTFOIR - was meeting in Washington D.C, US. This was the first such meeting under current US President Donald Trump. Therefore the operation which included never before seen levels of US support was timed to promote discussion about any future operation to liberate Raqqa.
That discussion is not now about whether Raqqa can be liberated from ISIL but when and how it will be best to liberate Raqqa.
The original plan to liberate Raqqa was dreamt up by former President Obama almost as an afterthought to his plan to liberate Mosul. Within that operation the Iraqis continue to make steady progress. However it is impossible for anyone involved to deny that we are being forced to make the best of a bad situation in the face of Obama's complete lack of planning.
Former President Obama's only consideration in planning the Mosul operation was to engineer a big flag waving, chest beating victory against ISIL. This was supposed to propel his designated successor - Hillary Clinton - to victory in the November 2016 US Presidential Election.
As a result I could probably write a book about all the things that are wrong with the planning of the Mosul operation. However the element that particularly concerns me at the moment is the impact on Mosul's civilian population.
In planning for the Mosul operation what the Iraqi's and CJTFOIR should have done is copy what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City. That is establish humanitarian corridors to allow the civilians to escape to Internally Displaces Peoples (IDP) camps. Then once the fighting had ended and the city liberated those civilians could return to their homes in safety.
However the US in particular could not bring itself to acknowledge that what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City was entirely correct.
So instead they dreamt up this harebrained scheme that would see Mosul's civilians remain within the city while the fighting raged around them. The belief seemed to be that they would somehow be immune to to the bullets and explosions going off around them because these are good honest American bullets rather than evil Russian ones.
Mosul's civilians are currently paying an extremely high price for that absolute foolishness.
Particularly as the operation has moved into the western side of Mosul there has been something of a shift in tactics towards opening humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from the city. Just today some 150 truckloads of civilians were brought out of the city for Hamman al-Alil. However due to the failure at the planning stage there aren't the IDP camps to house them. Building those IDP camps will take months.
Now the battle has begun it is impossible for us to stop and try again once the camps have been built. So all we can really do is press ahead to end the battle as soon as possible. No matter how harrowing the daily reports are.
With their election coming on April 23rd (23/4/17) France is pushing for the Raqqa operation to be launched immediately. For exactly the same reason that Obama rushed us into the Mosul operation. I assume the French are currently finding themselves in a minority of one within CJTFOIR.
ISIL's main ally in Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah coalition. This is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian branch The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).
The other significant members of the Army of Conquest are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA). It also includes some fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) that have the misfortune of being in areas under Army of Conquest occupation.
As with ISIL the Army of Conquest are currently in extremely bad shape within Syria.
They continue to be protected by the Turkish military in the area between Shangri-La and Afrin Canton which has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
However they were defeated in Aleppo City back in December 2015. They continue to be defeated across Syria - most recent being forced to cede control of areas around the city of Hama. This has left the Army of Conquest seeking refuge in an area south of Afrin Canton around Idlib City. This has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the form of the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria. The Geneva Process has never been about bringing peace to Syria. Instead its purpose has always been to protect ISIL and the Army of Conquest and empower them to overthrow the Syrian government.
Since December 2016 the Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Astana Process. The most recent meetings in the Astana Process were held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17). These were dominated by the Astana Ceasefire.
In the run-up to the latest Astana meetings the Army of Conquest unleashed a campaign of the most extreme violence it could muster. This included large suicide bombings in Homs City on February 25th (25/2/17) and Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). They also launched a short-lived conventional military assault on Damascus on March 19th (19/3/17).
These attacks were all carried out by the Army of Conquest in an effort to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians into extending the Astana Ceasefire to include them. This is a step the Army of Conquest desperately need in order to survive.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Astana Ceasefire - but not the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism - has been adopted by the Geneva Process. As a consequence this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process which began on Thursday (23/3/17) have been accompanied by another violent rampage by the Army of Conquest.
On Wednesday (22/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault focused on the city of Hama. This is intended to recover the ground they only recently lost. This offensive is on going and therefore not something I am happy commenting on in too much detail. However it is only today (24/3/17) that the Syrians and the Russians have felt the need to attempt to repel it.
Also today (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an ambush by Islamist terrorists in the Chechnya region of Russia. Following the assassination of Russia's Ambassador to Turkey on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) I suggested that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan would do well to learn the name of Ramzan Kadyrov - Head of the Chechen Republic.
To aid Erdogan in this task Russian promptly dispatched the Chechen National Guard to act as military police within the newly liberated Aleppo City. Someone is clearly not happy about that.
Yesterday (23/3/17) in Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) a massive fire engulfed the nation's largest weapons depot. The former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was killed in Kiev. Under Obama the western reflex to either of these events would be to blame Russia and impose more sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's latest rampage was not limited to Syria and Russia. It also included the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) with a combined run-over and stabbing attack in and around the Parliament building in London city on Wednesday (22/3/17).
Recently there have been a number of indications that the UK is no longer as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was. For example I am significantly less dead then certain people would like.
In late December 2016 I visited my mothers in an area of the UK which is some distance from my home. This prompted the UK Queen to indicate that in the event of an extreme crisis the UK military would be tasked with bringing me home.
That is simply because I have valuable contacts with Russia, Iran and Syria that the UK simply does not have. However it was enough to make certain people suspicious. Those people don't think Russians, Iranians and Syrians have a right to exist let alone have their views considered.
Then of course there is the killing of the UK MP Jo Cox on June 16th 2016 (16/6/16).
As chair of the Parliamentary Syria group Jo Cox was a energetic supporter of the Army of Conquest - particularly their White Helmets division. Therefore her death should have prompted a counter terrorism investigation into her behaviour. This may well have resulted in her death being ruled a lawful killing and her killer only being punished for firearms offences rather than murder.
However Jo Cox's Labour Party and her deeply unpleasant husband Brendan Cox attempted to obstruct the counter-terrorism investigation. Yorkshire Counter-Terrorism unit bowed to this political pressure and the whole thing unravelled. This is a longstanding and persistent problem with UK counter-terrorism efforts. Particularly where the Labour Party are concerned.
Those are just two examples that I feel comfortable discussing at the moment.
That Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack took place outside the Parliament building obviously invoked memories of Jo Cox's killing. Brendan Cox has even crawled out from under his rock to spew his usual hateful lies.
In fact the lockdown of the Parliament building lasted for several hours longer than it needed to. That's because eyewitnesses of a certain political persuasion simply invented a second white attacker whom the police were then forced to search for.
Those eyewitness did this simply because they desperately wanted the attacker to be a white person rather than face the truth that there is an Islamist terror threat that Jo Cox helped nurture and feed. I sincerely hope that every one of them is prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
The attacker has since been identified as 53 year old convert to Islam who at the time was going by the name of Khalid Masood. He is part of that generation of British Muslims who wee radicalised by Al Qaeda in the wake of the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Khalid Masood's birthname was Adrian Ajao. Although I've not had it confirmed that name is West African in origin. Most likely Nigerian. Nigeria of course has suffered extensively at the hands of Islamist terrorists. Most notably Boko Haram who grew out of the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA).
Former US President Obama's response to the rise of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria and West Africa was to rig the 2015 Nigerian election to install the Muslim Muhammadu Buhari as President. After all in Obama's childlike mind this recent global outbreak of Islamist terror is just peaceful Muslims chafing against their white devil oppressors.
President Buhari has been unwell of late spending two months in the UK for medical treatment. During this absence - and particularly recent events in the Gambia - the UK has certainly indicated that it intends to stand with this member of the UK Commonwealth against the scourge of Islamist terror.
Amongst the, I think now, 10 people arrested following Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack has been Adrian Ajao's mother. She was arrested at her home in Wales. Specifically the bit of Wales that my infamous grandmother was from. This is the same bit of Wales where the Richard Osman who died aboard Egypt Air flight MS804 was living at the time of his murder.
Although it seems a complete coincidence I feel the need to point out that my grandmother's husband - my grandfather - was part of Lord Mountbatten's close protection detail. However not at the time he was assassinated by Martin McGuinness' Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA).
Prior to carrying out the attack Ajao travelled from his home in the city of Birmingham to spend a single night at the Preston Park hotel in the city of Brighton. I used to live in Brighton and during - shall we say my more gypsy days - I used to live actually in Preston Park. Amongst other parks.
Preston Park is also where Brighton - the UK's gay capital - holds it's annual Gay Pride festival. So all those who rally behind the likes of Jo Cox to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" at Russia seem to have been shown exactly what the people they're cheering for think of them.
There has also been an attempted stabbing attack at Orly Airport in France on Saturday (18/3/17) and an attempted run-over attack in Antwerp, Belgium yesterday (24/3/17). Rather than being directed these appear to be an inspired and a copycat attack respectively. Much to my annoyance I will have to address those tomorrow.
Tonight the UK sees the Comic Relief telethon. This was born out of the Live Aid movement established in response to the 1984 Ethiopian famine. With Africa's Sahel Belt from Nigeria to Somalia once again in the grip of famine it would be tempting to think that the last 33 years of effort has been a failure. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Although I don't have the exact figures in front of me even since the year 2000 the number of malnourished people in the World has halved. Of the people still malnourished the extent to which they are malnourished has been reduced by about 80%.
The famine we are currently seeing emerge across Africa and Yemen are entirely man-made. It is driven by Islamist terrorism and its purpose is to destabilise the nations in order to make them dependent on foreign aid.
When I got involved in the Live Aid movement in the early 2000's we referred to this as; Neo-Colonialism.
17:45 on 24/3/17 (UK date).
Despite intense international condemnation the Syrians had managed to restrict them to an area in the Euphrates River basin.
So in the winter of 2013 ISIL almost completely abandoned fighting in Syria and invaded Iraq's south-western Anbar Province instead. In the summer of 2014 ISIL invaded Iraq's north-western Nineveh plains region including the city of Mosul. That city went on to become ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
As they captured Mosul ISIL also seized the predominately Kurdish Yezidi town of Sinjar/Shingal some 500km (300 miles) to the west.
Considering followers of the Yezidi religion to be devil worshippers ISIL immediately massacred 5,000 of Shingal's men and boys. They kidnapped a similar number of the town's women and girls to use as sex slaves. ISIL then forced Sinjar's remaining 60,000 residents up Mount Sinjar/Shingal to die of starvation and thirst.
This act finally shamed former US President Barack Obama into action. The US-led anti-ISIL coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) was established.
Despite a new coalition being formed with its fancy name and shiny logo initially CJTFOIR's main objective seemed to be to protect ISIL at all costs.
For example in March and April of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the associated Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) conducted an operation to liberate the city of Tikrit from. Under Obama CJTFOIR was forbidden from participating in this operation.
However it is not possible for a coalition of some of the World's most powerful air forces to spend three years bombing ISIL without it having some effect. So ISIL are currently in very bad shape.
The last time that ISIL were able to launch a successful offensive operation was all the way back in May 2015 when they captured all of the Iraqi city of Ramadi. However since then the Iraqis have successfully liberated Ramadi from ISIL along with the near-by city of Fallujah. They are currently well on their way to liberating Mosul from the group too.
Within Syria ISIL are also on the brink of defeat.
By January 2015 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had repelled a sustained onslaught on the city of Kobane. Since then they have formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition and expanded the area north of the Euphrates River - designated; "Shangri-La" - to in excess of 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).
This restricts ISIL to just the area along the banks of the river - predominately the city of Raqqa and part of the city of Deir-ez-Zour. The SDF are also in control of a smaller area in the west of Syria centred around the city of Afrin which is designated as; "The Afrin Canton."
Over the night of Tuesday (21/3/17) into Wednesday (22/3/17) CJTFOIR helicoptered members of the SDF to the southern bank of the Euphrates. This is the start of an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the near-by Tabqa Dam from ISIL. Damning the Euphrates River to form Lake Assad this sits around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa and represents ISIL's main crossing point across the Euphrates from Raqqa to the rest of Syria.
Recent heavy rain/snow fall coupled with ISIL's mis-management of the dam has meant that the waters in Lake Assad have rising dramatically in recent months. This creates a very real risk that the SDF controlled areas upstream of the dam will flood or that the dam will burst explosively flooding the areas downstream. As a result everyone will feel much more relaxed once the dam is under the control of people who know what they are doing.
However the dramatic Tabqa Dam operation was launched as the global coalition on ISIL - which is much wider than CJTFOIR - was meeting in Washington D.C, US. This was the first such meeting under current US President Donald Trump. Therefore the operation which included never before seen levels of US support was timed to promote discussion about any future operation to liberate Raqqa.
That discussion is not now about whether Raqqa can be liberated from ISIL but when and how it will be best to liberate Raqqa.
The original plan to liberate Raqqa was dreamt up by former President Obama almost as an afterthought to his plan to liberate Mosul. Within that operation the Iraqis continue to make steady progress. However it is impossible for anyone involved to deny that we are being forced to make the best of a bad situation in the face of Obama's complete lack of planning.
Former President Obama's only consideration in planning the Mosul operation was to engineer a big flag waving, chest beating victory against ISIL. This was supposed to propel his designated successor - Hillary Clinton - to victory in the November 2016 US Presidential Election.
As a result I could probably write a book about all the things that are wrong with the planning of the Mosul operation. However the element that particularly concerns me at the moment is the impact on Mosul's civilian population.
In planning for the Mosul operation what the Iraqi's and CJTFOIR should have done is copy what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City. That is establish humanitarian corridors to allow the civilians to escape to Internally Displaces Peoples (IDP) camps. Then once the fighting had ended and the city liberated those civilians could return to their homes in safety.
However the US in particular could not bring itself to acknowledge that what Syria and Russia were doing in Aleppo City was entirely correct.
So instead they dreamt up this harebrained scheme that would see Mosul's civilians remain within the city while the fighting raged around them. The belief seemed to be that they would somehow be immune to to the bullets and explosions going off around them because these are good honest American bullets rather than evil Russian ones.
Mosul's civilians are currently paying an extremely high price for that absolute foolishness.
Particularly as the operation has moved into the western side of Mosul there has been something of a shift in tactics towards opening humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from the city. Just today some 150 truckloads of civilians were brought out of the city for Hamman al-Alil. However due to the failure at the planning stage there aren't the IDP camps to house them. Building those IDP camps will take months.
Now the battle has begun it is impossible for us to stop and try again once the camps have been built. So all we can really do is press ahead to end the battle as soon as possible. No matter how harrowing the daily reports are.
With their election coming on April 23rd (23/4/17) France is pushing for the Raqqa operation to be launched immediately. For exactly the same reason that Obama rushed us into the Mosul operation. I assume the French are currently finding themselves in a minority of one within CJTFOIR.
ISIL's main ally in Syria is the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah coalition. This is headed by The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian branch The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF).
The other significant members of the Army of Conquest are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA). It also includes some fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) that have the misfortune of being in areas under Army of Conquest occupation.
As with ISIL the Army of Conquest are currently in extremely bad shape within Syria.
They continue to be protected by the Turkish military in the area between Shangri-La and Afrin Canton which has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
However they were defeated in Aleppo City back in December 2015. They continue to be defeated across Syria - most recent being forced to cede control of areas around the city of Hama. This has left the Army of Conquest seeking refuge in an area south of Afrin Canton around Idlib City. This has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
There remains though a beacon of hope shining out for ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the form of the United Nations (UN) Geneva Process on Syria. The Geneva Process has never been about bringing peace to Syria. Instead its purpose has always been to protect ISIL and the Army of Conquest and empower them to overthrow the Syrian government.
Since December 2016 the Geneva Process has been rivalled by the Astana Process. The most recent meetings in the Astana Process were held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17). These were dominated by the Astana Ceasefire.
In the run-up to the latest Astana meetings the Army of Conquest unleashed a campaign of the most extreme violence it could muster. This included large suicide bombings in Homs City on February 25th (25/2/17) and Damascus on March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17). They also launched a short-lived conventional military assault on Damascus on March 19th (19/3/17).
These attacks were all carried out by the Army of Conquest in an effort to intimidate the Syrians and the Russians into extending the Astana Ceasefire to include them. This is a step the Army of Conquest desperately need in order to survive.
In an effort to end the rivalry between the Geneva Process and the Astana Process the Astana Ceasefire - but not the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism - has been adopted by the Geneva Process. As a consequence this latest round of meetings in the Geneva Process which began on Thursday (23/3/17) have been accompanied by another violent rampage by the Army of Conquest.
On Wednesday (22/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault focused on the city of Hama. This is intended to recover the ground they only recently lost. This offensive is on going and therefore not something I am happy commenting on in too much detail. However it is only today (24/3/17) that the Syrians and the Russians have felt the need to attempt to repel it.
Also today (24/3/17) six members of the Chechen National Guard were killed in an ambush by Islamist terrorists in the Chechnya region of Russia. Following the assassination of Russia's Ambassador to Turkey on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) I suggested that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan would do well to learn the name of Ramzan Kadyrov - Head of the Chechen Republic.
To aid Erdogan in this task Russian promptly dispatched the Chechen National Guard to act as military police within the newly liberated Aleppo City. Someone is clearly not happy about that.
Yesterday (23/3/17) in Russia's deeply troubled neighbour Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine) a massive fire engulfed the nation's largest weapons depot. The former Russian MP and now dissident Denis Voronenkov was killed in Kiev. Under Obama the western reflex to either of these events would be to blame Russia and impose more sanctions.
The Army of Conquest's latest rampage was not limited to Syria and Russia. It also included the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) with a combined run-over and stabbing attack in and around the Parliament building in London city on Wednesday (22/3/17).
Recently there have been a number of indications that the UK is no longer as supportive of ISIL and the Army of Conquest as it once was. For example I am significantly less dead then certain people would like.
In late December 2016 I visited my mothers in an area of the UK which is some distance from my home. This prompted the UK Queen to indicate that in the event of an extreme crisis the UK military would be tasked with bringing me home.
That is simply because I have valuable contacts with Russia, Iran and Syria that the UK simply does not have. However it was enough to make certain people suspicious. Those people don't think Russians, Iranians and Syrians have a right to exist let alone have their views considered.
Then of course there is the killing of the UK MP Jo Cox on June 16th 2016 (16/6/16).
As chair of the Parliamentary Syria group Jo Cox was a energetic supporter of the Army of Conquest - particularly their White Helmets division. Therefore her death should have prompted a counter terrorism investigation into her behaviour. This may well have resulted in her death being ruled a lawful killing and her killer only being punished for firearms offences rather than murder.
However Jo Cox's Labour Party and her deeply unpleasant husband Brendan Cox attempted to obstruct the counter-terrorism investigation. Yorkshire Counter-Terrorism unit bowed to this political pressure and the whole thing unravelled. This is a longstanding and persistent problem with UK counter-terrorism efforts. Particularly where the Labour Party are concerned.
Those are just two examples that I feel comfortable discussing at the moment.
That Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack took place outside the Parliament building obviously invoked memories of Jo Cox's killing. Brendan Cox has even crawled out from under his rock to spew his usual hateful lies.
In fact the lockdown of the Parliament building lasted for several hours longer than it needed to. That's because eyewitnesses of a certain political persuasion simply invented a second white attacker whom the police were then forced to search for.
Those eyewitness did this simply because they desperately wanted the attacker to be a white person rather than face the truth that there is an Islamist terror threat that Jo Cox helped nurture and feed. I sincerely hope that every one of them is prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
The attacker has since been identified as 53 year old convert to Islam who at the time was going by the name of Khalid Masood. He is part of that generation of British Muslims who wee radicalised by Al Qaeda in the wake of the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Khalid Masood's birthname was Adrian Ajao. Although I've not had it confirmed that name is West African in origin. Most likely Nigerian. Nigeria of course has suffered extensively at the hands of Islamist terrorists. Most notably Boko Haram who grew out of the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA).
Former US President Obama's response to the rise of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria and West Africa was to rig the 2015 Nigerian election to install the Muslim Muhammadu Buhari as President. After all in Obama's childlike mind this recent global outbreak of Islamist terror is just peaceful Muslims chafing against their white devil oppressors.
President Buhari has been unwell of late spending two months in the UK for medical treatment. During this absence - and particularly recent events in the Gambia - the UK has certainly indicated that it intends to stand with this member of the UK Commonwealth against the scourge of Islamist terror.
Amongst the, I think now, 10 people arrested following Wednesday's (22/3/17) attack has been Adrian Ajao's mother. She was arrested at her home in Wales. Specifically the bit of Wales that my infamous grandmother was from. This is the same bit of Wales where the Richard Osman who died aboard Egypt Air flight MS804 was living at the time of his murder.
Although it seems a complete coincidence I feel the need to point out that my grandmother's husband - my grandfather - was part of Lord Mountbatten's close protection detail. However not at the time he was assassinated by Martin McGuinness' Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA).
Prior to carrying out the attack Ajao travelled from his home in the city of Birmingham to spend a single night at the Preston Park hotel in the city of Brighton. I used to live in Brighton and during - shall we say my more gypsy days - I used to live actually in Preston Park. Amongst other parks.
Preston Park is also where Brighton - the UK's gay capital - holds it's annual Gay Pride festival. So all those who rally behind the likes of Jo Cox to scream; "Gay Rights For Gays!" at Russia seem to have been shown exactly what the people they're cheering for think of them.
There has also been an attempted stabbing attack at Orly Airport in France on Saturday (18/3/17) and an attempted run-over attack in Antwerp, Belgium yesterday (24/3/17). Rather than being directed these appear to be an inspired and a copycat attack respectively. Much to my annoyance I will have to address those tomorrow.
Tonight the UK sees the Comic Relief telethon. This was born out of the Live Aid movement established in response to the 1984 Ethiopian famine. With Africa's Sahel Belt from Nigeria to Somalia once again in the grip of famine it would be tempting to think that the last 33 years of effort has been a failure. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Although I don't have the exact figures in front of me even since the year 2000 the number of malnourished people in the World has halved. Of the people still malnourished the extent to which they are malnourished has been reduced by about 80%.
The famine we are currently seeing emerge across Africa and Yemen are entirely man-made. It is driven by Islamist terrorism and its purpose is to destabilise the nations in order to make them dependent on foreign aid.
When I got involved in the Live Aid movement in the early 2000's we referred to this as; Neo-Colonialism.
17:45 on 24/3/17 (UK date).
Wednesday, 22 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 33, Week 1, Day 1.
In the summer of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat.
Despite intense international condemnation the Syrians had managed to restrict them to an area in the Euphrates River basin.
This would obviously be extremely bad news for any nihilistic organisation like ISIL which needs to continually expand and continually destroy. It was particularly bad news for ISIL whose motto is; "Maintain and Expand."
So in the winter of 2013 ISIL almost completely abandoned fighting in Syria and invaded Iraq's south-western Anbar Province instead. In the summer of 2014 ISIL invaded Iraq's north-western Nineveh plains region including the city of Mosul. That city went on to become ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/17) an operation was launched to take Mosul back from ISIL.
This was intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias that function as part of the ISF. It is being supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The eastern side of Mosul was liberated from ISIL on January 25th 2017 (25/1/17). Following a planned operational pause an operation to liberate the western side of Mosul was begun on February 19th (19/2/17) with the ISF entering the city itself on February 23rd (23/2/17).
As with the operation to liberate eastern Mosul it is the ISF who have sole responsibility for fighting within the city. They have gone about this by attacking on two axis.
On the southern axis the Federal Police element of the ISF entered via the Mosul International Airport and Ghazlani Military base complex at the very southern tip of the city. On the south-west axis the Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) entered via the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city.
By approximately March 10th (10/3/17) the Federal Police on the southern axis had succeeded in liberating the government complex around al-Remah Square. This advance included liberating both the so-called; "Fourth Bridge" and the Hurriyah Bridge across the Tigris River and all the neighbourhoods south to the Ghazlani/Airport complex.
At roughly the same time on the south-western axis the Golden Division had advanced all the way to the several neighbourhoods that make up the; "New Mosul" district of the city. On March 8th (8/3/17) they had entered the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which is the most western neighbourhood in the New Mosul district.
On March 14th (3/2/17) the Federal Police on the southern axis advanced to liberate the Corniche on the banks of the Tigris including the so-called; "Old Bridge." At the same time the Golden Division on the south-western axis completed their liberation of the New Mosul district including Mosul Railway station.
These advances meant that the ISF surrounded the southern portion of Mosul's "Old City" district on three sides; the east, south and west. In fact on March 14th (14/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF actually entered the al-Tob neighbourhood which is the most southerly neighbourhood of the Old City district from the al-Remah Square complex directly to the south.
Mosul's Old City district almost represents a city within a city and the battle to liberate it a battle within a battle.
Parts of Mosul's Old City district were first constructed during the Assyrian Empire some 4,000 years ago in the 25th Century B.C. However the majority of it was constructed a mere 1,300 years ago in the 8th Century A.D. As a result the Old City district is a warren of tightly packed buildings and alleyways to narrow to ride a horse down.
I'm sure this all makes Mosul's Old City a wonderful place to live or to visit as a tourists. However it makes for an absolutely horrible place to fight a war.
Elsewhere in the operation to liberate Mosul if the ISF encountered an ISIL fighting position they could simply drive columns of armoured vehicles at it and overwhelm it. Within the Old City they cannot do that instead having to take territory by winning one firefight at a time.
Amid valid comparisons to the World War Two Battle of Stalingrad the operation within the Old City has become almost a war of snipers. The ISF snipers have to wait for ages to get the shot needed to kill an ISIL sniper allowing them to advance a few hundred metres/yards at a time.
That progress would slow dramatically once the ISF entered the Old City district was well known in advance and planned for. So while it may look to a casual observer that the operation has ground to a halt it most certainly has not. In fact progress has continued at a steady if slow pace.
By March 17th (17/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF had advanced into the Old City from the Corniche. They succeeded in liberating Bab al-Saray Market area including the al-Pasha Mosque and al-Adala Street. This roughly 4kmsq (2.5 milesq) area is bordered by the Corniche to the east and Nineveh Street to the north.
To the south of the Old City the Federal Police element of the ISF have succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood. They are currently fighting within the Kalakchi neighbourhood which sits directly to the west of the al-Tob neighbourhood. As of Monday (20/3/17) they are said to be approaching the Latin Church. This sits on the junction of Nineveh Street and al-Shaziani Street.
The ISF have made no secret of the fact that their immediate objective is to converge on and liberate the Nuri Mosque. Sitting on al-Shaziani Street to the north of Nineveh Street this is the site of the famous Hadbaa leaning Minaret and where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave one of his sermons declaring ISIL to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.
Amid such fierce fighting it is hard to accurately tell how close the ISF are to the Nuri Mosque. However they're estimated to be within between 600 metres/yards to the east and 750 metres/yards to the south. Someone pointed out that according to Google Drive this puts them within three minutes drive of the Mosque. However with there said to be some 1000 ISIL fighters guarding the Mosque I suspect it might take slightly longer than that in this traffic.
What I'd expected the Golden Division element of the ISF to do was to cross the Ramparts from New Mosul into the Old City and advance along Nineveh Street to converge on the Nuri Mosque from the west. However they have instead started to advance north adjacent to the Old City district.
Yesterday (21/3/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods of Risala and Nablus. These are the two most eastern neighbourhoods of what is often shown on maps as the Hay al-Yarmuk district. Containing the Alyarmook Park these sit directly north of the New Mosul district and south of the Hay al-Rabi district.
As with the operation to liberate Mosul's eastern side the first phase of the operation to liberate the west was to encircle the city cutting it off.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the Iraqi Army element of the ISF along with the PMF launched an operation to tighten that noose. This was done by pushing north from positions around the village of Tal Zalat - roughly 20km (12 miles) west of Mosul - to the town of Badush which sits roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul.
On March 14th (14/3/17) the ISF and the PMF had succeeded in fully liberating Badush and the surrounding area. From there the PMF have pushed south-east towards Mosul itself. Yesterday (21/3/17) the PMF succeeded in liberating the North Gate into Mosul on the Highway 1 H1 Mosul to Badush road.
At the same time the ISF element of the operation have advanced east from the Tal Zalat to Badush line into Mosul itself. Yesterday (21/3/17) they entered the Hay al-Nasr neighbourhood opening up a third axis within the city.
Despite these advances ISIL have not yet collapsed and continue to mount counter offensives. Yesterday (21/3/17) they launched an attack on PMF positions at Badush from the Badush hills to the north. This counter offensive was quickly repelled by the PMF.
Today (22/3/17) ISIL launched a counter offensive in the al-Dawasa neighbourhood. Liberated back on March 6th (6/3/17) this sits directly south of the Hurriyah Bridge road and the Old City district. Although I am still waiting for confirmation this counter offensive also seems to have been repelled.
As I was sitting down to write this news began to break of an apparent run-over and stabbing attack outside the Parliament building in London, UK.
In the immediate hours after an attack such as this it can be extremely difficult to tell what is going on. Therefore I decided that it would be a more productive use of my time to write this while awaiting for more information to emerge.
After all the best way to prevent terror attacks western cities in the UK, Europe and the US is to completely defeat ISIL and their associates.
17:45 on 22/3/17 (UK date).
Despite intense international condemnation the Syrians had managed to restrict them to an area in the Euphrates River basin.
This would obviously be extremely bad news for any nihilistic organisation like ISIL which needs to continually expand and continually destroy. It was particularly bad news for ISIL whose motto is; "Maintain and Expand."
So in the winter of 2013 ISIL almost completely abandoned fighting in Syria and invaded Iraq's south-western Anbar Province instead. In the summer of 2014 ISIL invaded Iraq's north-western Nineveh plains region including the city of Mosul. That city went on to become ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/17) an operation was launched to take Mosul back from ISIL.
This was intended as a combined operation between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias that function as part of the ISF. It is being supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The eastern side of Mosul was liberated from ISIL on January 25th 2017 (25/1/17). Following a planned operational pause an operation to liberate the western side of Mosul was begun on February 19th (19/2/17) with the ISF entering the city itself on February 23rd (23/2/17).
As with the operation to liberate eastern Mosul it is the ISF who have sole responsibility for fighting within the city. They have gone about this by attacking on two axis.
On the southern axis the Federal Police element of the ISF entered via the Mosul International Airport and Ghazlani Military base complex at the very southern tip of the city. On the south-west axis the Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) entered via the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood at the south-western tip of the city.
By approximately March 10th (10/3/17) the Federal Police on the southern axis had succeeded in liberating the government complex around al-Remah Square. This advance included liberating both the so-called; "Fourth Bridge" and the Hurriyah Bridge across the Tigris River and all the neighbourhoods south to the Ghazlani/Airport complex.
At roughly the same time on the south-western axis the Golden Division had advanced all the way to the several neighbourhoods that make up the; "New Mosul" district of the city. On March 8th (8/3/17) they had entered the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which is the most western neighbourhood in the New Mosul district.
On March 14th (3/2/17) the Federal Police on the southern axis advanced to liberate the Corniche on the banks of the Tigris including the so-called; "Old Bridge." At the same time the Golden Division on the south-western axis completed their liberation of the New Mosul district including Mosul Railway station.
These advances meant that the ISF surrounded the southern portion of Mosul's "Old City" district on three sides; the east, south and west. In fact on March 14th (14/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF actually entered the al-Tob neighbourhood which is the most southerly neighbourhood of the Old City district from the al-Remah Square complex directly to the south.
Mosul's Old City district almost represents a city within a city and the battle to liberate it a battle within a battle.
Parts of Mosul's Old City district were first constructed during the Assyrian Empire some 4,000 years ago in the 25th Century B.C. However the majority of it was constructed a mere 1,300 years ago in the 8th Century A.D. As a result the Old City district is a warren of tightly packed buildings and alleyways to narrow to ride a horse down.
I'm sure this all makes Mosul's Old City a wonderful place to live or to visit as a tourists. However it makes for an absolutely horrible place to fight a war.
Elsewhere in the operation to liberate Mosul if the ISF encountered an ISIL fighting position they could simply drive columns of armoured vehicles at it and overwhelm it. Within the Old City they cannot do that instead having to take territory by winning one firefight at a time.
Amid valid comparisons to the World War Two Battle of Stalingrad the operation within the Old City has become almost a war of snipers. The ISF snipers have to wait for ages to get the shot needed to kill an ISIL sniper allowing them to advance a few hundred metres/yards at a time.
That progress would slow dramatically once the ISF entered the Old City district was well known in advance and planned for. So while it may look to a casual observer that the operation has ground to a halt it most certainly has not. In fact progress has continued at a steady if slow pace.
By March 17th (17/3/17) the Federal Police element of the ISF had advanced into the Old City from the Corniche. They succeeded in liberating Bab al-Saray Market area including the al-Pasha Mosque and al-Adala Street. This roughly 4kmsq (2.5 milesq) area is bordered by the Corniche to the east and Nineveh Street to the north.
To the south of the Old City the Federal Police element of the ISF have succeeded in liberating the al-Tob neighbourhood. They are currently fighting within the Kalakchi neighbourhood which sits directly to the west of the al-Tob neighbourhood. As of Monday (20/3/17) they are said to be approaching the Latin Church. This sits on the junction of Nineveh Street and al-Shaziani Street.
The ISF have made no secret of the fact that their immediate objective is to converge on and liberate the Nuri Mosque. Sitting on al-Shaziani Street to the north of Nineveh Street this is the site of the famous Hadbaa leaning Minaret and where ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gave one of his sermons declaring ISIL to be a Caliphate and he its Caliph.
Amid such fierce fighting it is hard to accurately tell how close the ISF are to the Nuri Mosque. However they're estimated to be within between 600 metres/yards to the east and 750 metres/yards to the south. Someone pointed out that according to Google Drive this puts them within three minutes drive of the Mosque. However with there said to be some 1000 ISIL fighters guarding the Mosque I suspect it might take slightly longer than that in this traffic.
What I'd expected the Golden Division element of the ISF to do was to cross the Ramparts from New Mosul into the Old City and advance along Nineveh Street to converge on the Nuri Mosque from the west. However they have instead started to advance north adjacent to the Old City district.
Yesterday (21/3/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the neighbourhoods of Risala and Nablus. These are the two most eastern neighbourhoods of what is often shown on maps as the Hay al-Yarmuk district. Containing the Alyarmook Park these sit directly north of the New Mosul district and south of the Hay al-Rabi district.
As with the operation to liberate Mosul's eastern side the first phase of the operation to liberate the west was to encircle the city cutting it off.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the Iraqi Army element of the ISF along with the PMF launched an operation to tighten that noose. This was done by pushing north from positions around the village of Tal Zalat - roughly 20km (12 miles) west of Mosul - to the town of Badush which sits roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul.
On March 14th (14/3/17) the ISF and the PMF had succeeded in fully liberating Badush and the surrounding area. From there the PMF have pushed south-east towards Mosul itself. Yesterday (21/3/17) the PMF succeeded in liberating the North Gate into Mosul on the Highway 1 H1 Mosul to Badush road.
At the same time the ISF element of the operation have advanced east from the Tal Zalat to Badush line into Mosul itself. Yesterday (21/3/17) they entered the Hay al-Nasr neighbourhood opening up a third axis within the city.
Despite these advances ISIL have not yet collapsed and continue to mount counter offensives. Yesterday (21/3/17) they launched an attack on PMF positions at Badush from the Badush hills to the north. This counter offensive was quickly repelled by the PMF.
Today (22/3/17) ISIL launched a counter offensive in the al-Dawasa neighbourhood. Liberated back on March 6th (6/3/17) this sits directly south of the Hurriyah Bridge road and the Old City district. Although I am still waiting for confirmation this counter offensive also seems to have been repelled.
As I was sitting down to write this news began to break of an apparent run-over and stabbing attack outside the Parliament building in London, UK.
In the immediate hours after an attack such as this it can be extremely difficult to tell what is going on. Therefore I decided that it would be a more productive use of my time to write this while awaiting for more information to emerge.
After all the best way to prevent terror attacks western cities in the UK, Europe and the US is to completely defeat ISIL and their associates.
17:45 on 22/3/17 (UK date).
Monday, 20 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 5, Day 1.
In my post on Friday (17/3/17) I wrote about the Syrians latest liberation of the city of Palmyra from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Any discussion of ISIL's occupation of Palmyra inevitably touches on the close alliance between ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.
In April 2015 the Army of Conquest conducted their Northwestern Offensive against the town of Jisr al-Shugur in Idlib Province. This was coordinated with ISIL who captured Palmyra for the first time in May 2015.
Following the Army of Conquest's collapse in Aleppo City ISIL tried to return the favour by launching a second attempt to capture Palmyra in December 2016. ISIL's intention being to split the Syrian forces to relieve the pressure on the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City.
Following the liberation of all of Aleppo City the remaining areas under Army of Conquest occupation have been subject to the so-called; "Astana Ceasefire." This was introduced on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) following the first meeting of the Astana Process between Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iran and the insurgents within Syria.
The Astana Ceasefire does not and has never included ISIL. Nor does it include Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) even though they have recently taken to referring to themselves as the Front for the Conquest of the Levant/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.
Curiously the Astana Ceasefire also does not apply to the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This was done at the request of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan in order to allow him to continue supporting ISIL by attacking the SDF within the area designated as; "Garvaghy Road."
What confuses matters is that the Support Front do not operate in isolation. Instead as the name suggests they operate as the key structure within the Army of Conquest coalition.
The other significant groups within the coalition are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash- Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Erdogan backed United Turkmen Army (UTA). The coalition also includes factions of the now collapsed Free Syrian Army (FSA) who find themselves trapped in areas under occupation by the Army of Conquest.
Therefore the question has always been whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, the JAI and the UTA who are allied with Al Qaeda and by extension ISIL?
An attempt was made to answer this question with the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism at the second meeting of the Astana Process held on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17). This establishes Russia, Turkey and Iran as the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire. In that role the three nations have held a series of meetings to determine who exactly the Astana Ceasefire applies to and whether there have been any violations.
The indications from these technical meetings is that the Astana Ceasefire does not apply to any member of the Army of Conquest coalition.
In the run-up to the Astana meeting in January almost all the focus was on the Army of Conquest occupied villages of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh which are around 10km (6 miles) outside of the Syrian capital Damascus. Despite the Astana Ceasefire the Syrians have been able to continue their operations against the Army of Conquest with both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh being fully liberated on January 28th (28/1/17).
The Astana Ceasefire also seems to have had no impact on the Syrians efforts to liberate East Ghouta from the Army of Conquest. This is a suburb of Damascus located around 1km (0.6 miles) outside of the city limits. It is particularly important within the Astana Process because it is a power base of the Army of Islam. Despite numerous allegations of genocide and executing members of ISIL for being too moderate the Army of Islam are the sole representatives of the insurgent groups within the Astana Process.
The Astana Ceasefire has also not restricted the Syrians efforts to liberate all of the city of Homs from the Army of Conquest. Homs is located around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus and around 220km (130 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
Rather like Aleppo City the Army of Conquest have occupied roughly a quarter of Homs City since 2014. On Saturday (18/3/17) the Army of Conquest were finally defeated in Homs City and have begun withdrawing to their bastion around the city of Idlib which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Discussions within the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism are obviously extremely delicate. Particularly as the tensions rise amid the Army of Conquests increasing defeats. Back on March 6th (6/3/17) I commented that it was becoming increasingly clear that those discussions were not going Erdogan's way. This seems to have triggered a flurry of activity.
On March 7th (7/3/17) Russia as one of the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire declared a 23 day "Regime of Quiet" in East Ghouta above and beyond the Astana Ceasefire. However on March 8th (8/3/17) Russia conducted airstrikes against Army of Conquest positions in East Ghouta.
On March 10th (10/3/17) a helicopter crashed in the Turkish city of Istanbul killing four Russian executives for the joint Russian-Turkish construction conglomerate Ezacacibasi.
Although bad weather was officially blamed this crash occurred as Erdogan was meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia. It seemed intended to send the threat that Erdogan would break off Turkish business ties with Russia unless the Army of Conquest was included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The particular model of helicopter that crashed was a Sikorsky S-76. The Sikorsky Aircraft Company was founded by Igor Sikorsky a Russian who emigrated to the US in 1919. The success this Russian inventor has brought to the US particularly during the Cold War remains something of a sensitive topic within Russia.
Also at the end of February 2017 Erdogan announced a USD3.5bn partnership between Sikorsky - now part of Lockheed Martin - and Turkey. As such it also seemed to serve as a threat that unless Russia gave him what he wanted Erdogan would repair his relationship with the US. Attempting to play Russia and the US off against each other has been a key part of Erdogan's recent strategy within Syria.
On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Islam demanded that the next meeting of Astana Process be delayed until of the Army of Conquest is included in the Astana Ceasefire. That demand was not met so on March 13th (13/3/17) the Army of Islam announced they would boycott the meeting.
With the Army of Islam being the sole representatives of the insurgents this meant the meeting went ahead on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) without the insurgents being represented. There were no significant developments.
Even before matters started to come to a head at the start of March the Army of Conquest has been increasing its own violent attacks within Syria.
On February 25th (25/2/17) the Army of Conquest conducted six coordinated suicide bomb attacks within Homs City. These attacks were focused on the headquarters of the of the Syria State Security and Military Intelligence within the city. They succeeded in killing General Hassan Daabul - a senior figure within Military Intelligence - along with 41 others.
On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted twin bomb attacks at the Bab al-Saghir Cemetery which sits between East Ghouta and Damascus itself. Bab al-Saghir Cemetery is the site of a Shia-Muslim shrine and this attack by the Sunni-Muslim Army of Conquest was focused on Shia Pilgrims from Iraq. It succeeded in killing at least 60 and wounding 170.
On March 15th (15/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted two coordinated suicide attacks within Damascus itself. The first targeted the Palace of Justice which houses Syria's highest Court. The second struck a restaurant in the Rabweh district of the city. The twin attacks succeeded in killing 51 people - mainly civilians. 31 at the Palace of Justice and 20 in the restaurant.
Yesterday (19/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault on the Jobar district of Damascus itself. Although the details are not clear it seems that this attack was launched through tunnels that the Army of Conquest had dug from the East Ghouta suburb.
Rather than being a sign of strength this recent upsurge of attacks instead the weakness of the Army of Conquest.
What they're trying to do is use the threat of these attacks to intimidate Syria, Russia and Iran into including them in the Astana Ceasefire. Unless the ceasefire is extended to them the Army of Conquest are faced with certain defeat.
For example yesterday's attack on Jobar was far from a success. It lasted less than 12 hours and the indications are that the Syrians have not only withstood the attack but have begun rolling the Army of Conquest back from positions they held prior to the assault being launched.
At around 18:00 on 21/3/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 21/3/17 (UK date) to add;
Complicating the Astana Process even further it has occurred during the US Presidential transition. When the first meeting in the process occurred on December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) we had US President Barack Obama. Now just after the third meeting in the process we have US President Donald Trump.
Under former President Obama the US was extremely protective of the Army of Conquest - including the Al Qaeda element.
Not only would Obama not allow the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - to conduct airstrikes against Al Qaeda he also loudly condemned those such as Syria and Russia who did. Obama also supplied weapons to members of the Army of Conquest. Many of these such as Division 30 (Division 30) then immediately took those weapons and handed them to Al Qaeda.
Under President Trump the US has continued to deliver weapons to Al Qaeda within Syria. However CJTFOIR is now doing it in a very different way.
Throughout this six year conflict the Army of Conquest's strategy has been clear;
The Army of Conquest launch attacks against the Syrians. When the Syrians retaliate the Army of Conquest claim that the military targets destroyed were civilian targets. The Army of Conquest would then accuse the Syrians of crimes against humanity and demand that a ceasefire is put in place to protect them while they carry out further attacks. A key part of this strategy has been the Army of Conquest's propaganda division - the White Helmets.
President Trump's shift to conducting airstrikes against Al Qaeda in Syria has made it much harder for the Army of Conquest to continue this strategy of lies.
On February 2nd (2/2/17) the White Helmets declared that the local headquarters of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) in Idlib City had been destroyed in a brutal Russian airstrike. However on February 9th (9/2/17) the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. It had done so in order to kill Abu Hani al-Masri a very senior figure within Al Qaeda who'd been using the SARC building as his base of operations.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the White Helmets declared that brutal Russian airstrikes had targeted a SARC aid convoy on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. Again though the US confirmed that they had carried out the airstrikes. Rather than targeting an aid convoy they had struck Army of Conquest military vehicles in order to kill Abu al-Kahyr al-Masri. Another very senior Al Qaeda leader.
Late on Thursday (16/3/17) the White Helmets declared that they Russians had brutally bombed a Mosque in Jeeneh again on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. The White Helmets went on to claim that at least 35 civilians had been murdered in what they declared to be a crime against humanity.
On the occasion the US wasted no time in setting the White Helmets straight. Within hours of the initial claim the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. They had most certainly not bombed the Mosque. Instead they had successfully targeted a meeting of senior Al Qaeda leaders which was located on the same street as the Mosque.
Despite this on Saturday (18/3/17) Erdogan told a political rally that the airstrike had targeted a Mosque and that it was a crime against humanity. The implication being that he was accusing the US of a crime against humanity.
What is interesting is that immediately after the airstrike the US conducted standard surveillance of the area which confirmed both that the strike had been a success and that the Mosque was undamaged.
However shortly after Erdogan made his claims on Saturday (18/2/17) the White Helmets released footage showing the Mosque in ruins. That would suggest that someone has come in a day after the airstike had taken place and then blown up the Mosque.
With no other airstrikes being reported in the area that would suggest that the Army of Conquest had destroyed the Mosque themselves purely for propaganda purposes. Either with demolition charges or their notorious "Hell Cannon" artillery.
20:35 on 21/3/17 (UK date).
In April 2015 the Army of Conquest conducted their Northwestern Offensive against the town of Jisr al-Shugur in Idlib Province. This was coordinated with ISIL who captured Palmyra for the first time in May 2015.
Following the Army of Conquest's collapse in Aleppo City ISIL tried to return the favour by launching a second attempt to capture Palmyra in December 2016. ISIL's intention being to split the Syrian forces to relieve the pressure on the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City.
Following the liberation of all of Aleppo City the remaining areas under Army of Conquest occupation have been subject to the so-called; "Astana Ceasefire." This was introduced on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) following the first meeting of the Astana Process between Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iran and the insurgents within Syria.
The Astana Ceasefire does not and has never included ISIL. Nor does it include Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF) even though they have recently taken to referring to themselves as the Front for the Conquest of the Levant/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.
Curiously the Astana Ceasefire also does not apply to the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This was done at the request of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan in order to allow him to continue supporting ISIL by attacking the SDF within the area designated as; "Garvaghy Road."
What confuses matters is that the Support Front do not operate in isolation. Instead as the name suggests they operate as the key structure within the Army of Conquest coalition.
The other significant groups within the coalition are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash- Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Erdogan backed United Turkmen Army (UTA). The coalition also includes factions of the now collapsed Free Syrian Army (FSA) who find themselves trapped in areas under occupation by the Army of Conquest.
Therefore the question has always been whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, the JAI and the UTA who are allied with Al Qaeda and by extension ISIL?
An attempt was made to answer this question with the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism at the second meeting of the Astana Process held on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17). This establishes Russia, Turkey and Iran as the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire. In that role the three nations have held a series of meetings to determine who exactly the Astana Ceasefire applies to and whether there have been any violations.
The indications from these technical meetings is that the Astana Ceasefire does not apply to any member of the Army of Conquest coalition.
In the run-up to the Astana meeting in January almost all the focus was on the Army of Conquest occupied villages of Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh which are around 10km (6 miles) outside of the Syrian capital Damascus. Despite the Astana Ceasefire the Syrians have been able to continue their operations against the Army of Conquest with both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh being fully liberated on January 28th (28/1/17).
The Astana Ceasefire also seems to have had no impact on the Syrians efforts to liberate East Ghouta from the Army of Conquest. This is a suburb of Damascus located around 1km (0.6 miles) outside of the city limits. It is particularly important within the Astana Process because it is a power base of the Army of Islam. Despite numerous allegations of genocide and executing members of ISIL for being too moderate the Army of Islam are the sole representatives of the insurgent groups within the Astana Process.
The Astana Ceasefire has also not restricted the Syrians efforts to liberate all of the city of Homs from the Army of Conquest. Homs is located around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Damascus and around 220km (130 miles) south-west of Aleppo City.
Rather like Aleppo City the Army of Conquest have occupied roughly a quarter of Homs City since 2014. On Saturday (18/3/17) the Army of Conquest were finally defeated in Homs City and have begun withdrawing to their bastion around the city of Idlib which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."
Discussions within the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism are obviously extremely delicate. Particularly as the tensions rise amid the Army of Conquests increasing defeats. Back on March 6th (6/3/17) I commented that it was becoming increasingly clear that those discussions were not going Erdogan's way. This seems to have triggered a flurry of activity.
On March 7th (7/3/17) Russia as one of the arbiters of the Astana Ceasefire declared a 23 day "Regime of Quiet" in East Ghouta above and beyond the Astana Ceasefire. However on March 8th (8/3/17) Russia conducted airstrikes against Army of Conquest positions in East Ghouta.
On March 10th (10/3/17) a helicopter crashed in the Turkish city of Istanbul killing four Russian executives for the joint Russian-Turkish construction conglomerate Ezacacibasi.
Although bad weather was officially blamed this crash occurred as Erdogan was meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia. It seemed intended to send the threat that Erdogan would break off Turkish business ties with Russia unless the Army of Conquest was included in the Astana Ceasefire.
The particular model of helicopter that crashed was a Sikorsky S-76. The Sikorsky Aircraft Company was founded by Igor Sikorsky a Russian who emigrated to the US in 1919. The success this Russian inventor has brought to the US particularly during the Cold War remains something of a sensitive topic within Russia.
Also at the end of February 2017 Erdogan announced a USD3.5bn partnership between Sikorsky - now part of Lockheed Martin - and Turkey. As such it also seemed to serve as a threat that unless Russia gave him what he wanted Erdogan would repair his relationship with the US. Attempting to play Russia and the US off against each other has been a key part of Erdogan's recent strategy within Syria.
On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Islam demanded that the next meeting of Astana Process be delayed until of the Army of Conquest is included in the Astana Ceasefire. That demand was not met so on March 13th (13/3/17) the Army of Islam announced they would boycott the meeting.
With the Army of Islam being the sole representatives of the insurgents this meant the meeting went ahead on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17) without the insurgents being represented. There were no significant developments.
Even before matters started to come to a head at the start of March the Army of Conquest has been increasing its own violent attacks within Syria.
On February 25th (25/2/17) the Army of Conquest conducted six coordinated suicide bomb attacks within Homs City. These attacks were focused on the headquarters of the of the Syria State Security and Military Intelligence within the city. They succeeded in killing General Hassan Daabul - a senior figure within Military Intelligence - along with 41 others.
On March 11th (11/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted twin bomb attacks at the Bab al-Saghir Cemetery which sits between East Ghouta and Damascus itself. Bab al-Saghir Cemetery is the site of a Shia-Muslim shrine and this attack by the Sunni-Muslim Army of Conquest was focused on Shia Pilgrims from Iraq. It succeeded in killing at least 60 and wounding 170.
On March 15th (15/3/17) the Army of Conquest conducted two coordinated suicide attacks within Damascus itself. The first targeted the Palace of Justice which houses Syria's highest Court. The second struck a restaurant in the Rabweh district of the city. The twin attacks succeeded in killing 51 people - mainly civilians. 31 at the Palace of Justice and 20 in the restaurant.
Yesterday (19/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched a conventional military assault on the Jobar district of Damascus itself. Although the details are not clear it seems that this attack was launched through tunnels that the Army of Conquest had dug from the East Ghouta suburb.
Rather than being a sign of strength this recent upsurge of attacks instead the weakness of the Army of Conquest.
What they're trying to do is use the threat of these attacks to intimidate Syria, Russia and Iran into including them in the Astana Ceasefire. Unless the ceasefire is extended to them the Army of Conquest are faced with certain defeat.
For example yesterday's attack on Jobar was far from a success. It lasted less than 12 hours and the indications are that the Syrians have not only withstood the attack but have begun rolling the Army of Conquest back from positions they held prior to the assault being launched.
At around 18:00 on 21/3/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 21/3/17 (UK date) to add;
Complicating the Astana Process even further it has occurred during the US Presidential transition. When the first meeting in the process occurred on December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) we had US President Barack Obama. Now just after the third meeting in the process we have US President Donald Trump.
Under former President Obama the US was extremely protective of the Army of Conquest - including the Al Qaeda element.
Not only would Obama not allow the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - to conduct airstrikes against Al Qaeda he also loudly condemned those such as Syria and Russia who did. Obama also supplied weapons to members of the Army of Conquest. Many of these such as Division 30 (Division 30) then immediately took those weapons and handed them to Al Qaeda.
Under President Trump the US has continued to deliver weapons to Al Qaeda within Syria. However CJTFOIR is now doing it in a very different way.
Throughout this six year conflict the Army of Conquest's strategy has been clear;
The Army of Conquest launch attacks against the Syrians. When the Syrians retaliate the Army of Conquest claim that the military targets destroyed were civilian targets. The Army of Conquest would then accuse the Syrians of crimes against humanity and demand that a ceasefire is put in place to protect them while they carry out further attacks. A key part of this strategy has been the Army of Conquest's propaganda division - the White Helmets.
President Trump's shift to conducting airstrikes against Al Qaeda in Syria has made it much harder for the Army of Conquest to continue this strategy of lies.
On February 2nd (2/2/17) the White Helmets declared that the local headquarters of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) in Idlib City had been destroyed in a brutal Russian airstrike. However on February 9th (9/2/17) the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. It had done so in order to kill Abu Hani al-Masri a very senior figure within Al Qaeda who'd been using the SARC building as his base of operations.
On February 26th (26/2/17) the White Helmets declared that brutal Russian airstrikes had targeted a SARC aid convoy on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. Again though the US confirmed that they had carried out the airstrikes. Rather than targeting an aid convoy they had struck Army of Conquest military vehicles in order to kill Abu al-Kahyr al-Masri. Another very senior Al Qaeda leader.
Late on Thursday (16/3/17) the White Helmets declared that they Russians had brutally bombed a Mosque in Jeeneh again on the border between Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. The White Helmets went on to claim that at least 35 civilians had been murdered in what they declared to be a crime against humanity.
On the occasion the US wasted no time in setting the White Helmets straight. Within hours of the initial claim the US confirmed that it had carried out the airstrike. They had most certainly not bombed the Mosque. Instead they had successfully targeted a meeting of senior Al Qaeda leaders which was located on the same street as the Mosque.
Despite this on Saturday (18/3/17) Erdogan told a political rally that the airstrike had targeted a Mosque and that it was a crime against humanity. The implication being that he was accusing the US of a crime against humanity.
What is interesting is that immediately after the airstrike the US conducted standard surveillance of the area which confirmed both that the strike had been a success and that the Mosque was undamaged.
However shortly after Erdogan made his claims on Saturday (18/2/17) the White Helmets released footage showing the Mosque in ruins. That would suggest that someone has come in a day after the airstike had taken place and then blown up the Mosque.
With no other airstrikes being reported in the area that would suggest that the Army of Conquest had destroyed the Mosque themselves purely for propaganda purposes. Either with demolition charges or their notorious "Hell Cannon" artillery.
20:35 on 21/3/17 (UK date).
Friday, 17 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 4, Day 5.
Within Iraq the operation to liberate the city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) continues.
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have now begun to enter and liberate the Old City district of western Mosul. Parts of Mosul's Old City date back to the Assyrian Empire of around 2500B.C. The majority of this Old City was developed in the 8th Century A.D.
As a result Mosul's Old City is made up of tightly packed buildings and narrow passage ways to narrow to ride a horse down let alone drive a modern military vehicle. Therefore as the battle has moved into this area the fighting has slowed to a walking pace. However it is important not to mistake for this slowing of progress as a sign that the operation is failing. If anything it continues to progress faster than had been expected.
ISIL of course do not only operate in Iraq and Mosul is certainly not the only area where they have come under immense pressure recently.
On March 4th 2017 (4/3/17) ISIL were also ousted from the Syrian city of Palmyra. This sits almost directly in the centre of Syria roughly 280km (170 miles) north-east of the Syrian capital Damascus and 220km (130 miles) south-west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria.
In April 2015 the extreme Islamist Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition launched their so-called; "Northwestern Offensive" from Idlib City - roughly 260km (155 miles) north-west of Palmyra. It's objective to was to capture the town of Jisr al-Shugur from the Syrians.
The Army of Conquest coordinated this offensive with their ISIL allies and with the Syrians being forced to fight on two fronts the Army of Conquest were able to seize Jisr al-Shugur while ISIL were able to capture Palmyra in May 2015.
In March 2016 Syrian forces backed by Russia launched an offensive of their own to liberate Palmyra from ISIL. This was successfully completed in a little over two weeks with Palmyra being liberated on March 27th 2016 (27/3/16).
In November through to December of 2016 the Syrians turned their attentions to liberating all of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. This sits roughly 70km (40 miles) north-east of Idlib City. The operation was highly successful with all of Aleppo City being liberated on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16).
However during the course of the Aleppo City operation the Army of Conquest's allies ISIL again launched an operation to capture Palmyra on approximately December 8th 2016 (8/12/16). As with the events of the spring of 2015 the intention was to split the Syrian's forces in order to allow ISIL to take the pressure off the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City. Although that failed ISIL were able to seize Palmyra for a second time on December 22nd 2016 (22/12/17).
On January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) the Syrians backed by Russia launched an operation to liberate Palmyra for a second time.
By January 19th (19/1/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra's military airbase. By February (24/2/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra encircling the city. On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrians entered Palmyra itself and by March 4th (4/3/17) the city had been fully liberated from ISIL.
Complicating matters further Syrian forces have been aided by the Lebanese political party-cum-militia Hezbollah.
Longterm allies of Syria Hezbollah were invited to assist in the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest in 2012. Since then they have operated as part of the Syrian forces playing a crucial role both in defeating ISIL to the point they were forced to invade Iraq in 2014 and in liberating Palmyra both in 2016 and this month.
A Shia-Muslim group Hezbollah were formed in response to Israel's invasion and occupation of Lebanon from 1982 until 1985. As such their primary objective is to fight Israel.
In the immediate term Hezbollah's involvement in the war in Syria against the Army of Conquest and ISIL has been to Israel's advantage. In short with Hezbollah being busy fighting ISIL and the Army of Conquest they haven't had much time left over to fight Israel.
However in the longer term Hezbollah's involvement in the Syria conflict presents a number of security problems for Israel.
As payment for their support Hezbollah are being rewarded with some of the more advanced weapons system's from the Syrian national armoury and their fighters are gaining highly valuable combat experience. As a result Israel has recently reclassified Hezbollah from being a terrorist group to being a conventional military force.
In 1967 Israel and Lebanon's neighbour Syria declared war on Israel by invading it. Although this is often referred to as; "The Six Day War" it is technically still going on. As is their right under international law Israel has periodically used the existing state of war to conduct airstrikes in Syria to stop Hezbollah transferring weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
In the wake of the liberation of Palmyra a very attractive opportunity presented itself to Israel.
Over the course of the last week it has been rumoured that senior Russian, Syrian and Hezbollah military figures have been meeting in Palmyra to plan an operation to fully liberate the city of Deir-ez-Zour - some 230km (140 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
As with Aleppo City prior to the December 2016 liberation control of Deir-ez-Zour has long been divided between ISIL and the Syrians. One of the Hezbollah representatives at these meetings was Badie Hamya - a very senior military leader within the group.
So last night the Israeli Air Force launched an operation to successfully attack Hezbollah positions at Palmyra and kill Badie Hamya. In response to this strike Syria activated its air defence systems and fired a number of Anti--Aircraft Missiles at the four Israel jets as they were leaving Syrian airspace.
This prompted Israel to sound its civilian air attack sirens and fire anti-missile missiles to shoot down the Syrian missiles. The majority of the wreckage from the successful shooting down of the Syrian missiles ended up landing in Syria and Israel's neighbour Jordan.
Although I think last night's raid was merely Israel taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself rather than a wider change in strategy it does present yet another reason why ISIL and their associates needed to be defeated sooner rather than later.
Israel has become increasingly concerned about the growth of Hezbollah within Syria and has lobbied both the US and Russia for action to be taken against them. As experience has shown if Israel does not feel that enough action is being taken on its behalf it will take action itself.
The problem is that if Hezbollah are forced to end its support for Syria then it will greatly reduce those prepared to fight against ISIL and their associates.
That creates a very real risk that the Army of Conquest in particular could continue to grow in Syria. Due to the Army of Conquest's genocidal massacres of Druze villagers close to the border with Israel back in the summer of 2015 Israel has already threatened to intervene in Syria against the Army of Conquest.
So until ISIL and the Army of Conquest are defeated we're going to be left with the same problem of potential Israeli intervention.
16:45 on 17/3/17 (UK date).
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have now begun to enter and liberate the Old City district of western Mosul. Parts of Mosul's Old City date back to the Assyrian Empire of around 2500B.C. The majority of this Old City was developed in the 8th Century A.D.
As a result Mosul's Old City is made up of tightly packed buildings and narrow passage ways to narrow to ride a horse down let alone drive a modern military vehicle. Therefore as the battle has moved into this area the fighting has slowed to a walking pace. However it is important not to mistake for this slowing of progress as a sign that the operation is failing. If anything it continues to progress faster than had been expected.
ISIL of course do not only operate in Iraq and Mosul is certainly not the only area where they have come under immense pressure recently.
On March 4th 2017 (4/3/17) ISIL were also ousted from the Syrian city of Palmyra. This sits almost directly in the centre of Syria roughly 280km (170 miles) north-east of the Syrian capital Damascus and 220km (130 miles) south-west of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital within Syria.
In April 2015 the extreme Islamist Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition launched their so-called; "Northwestern Offensive" from Idlib City - roughly 260km (155 miles) north-west of Palmyra. It's objective to was to capture the town of Jisr al-Shugur from the Syrians.
The Army of Conquest coordinated this offensive with their ISIL allies and with the Syrians being forced to fight on two fronts the Army of Conquest were able to seize Jisr al-Shugur while ISIL were able to capture Palmyra in May 2015.
In March 2016 Syrian forces backed by Russia launched an offensive of their own to liberate Palmyra from ISIL. This was successfully completed in a little over two weeks with Palmyra being liberated on March 27th 2016 (27/3/16).
In November through to December of 2016 the Syrians turned their attentions to liberating all of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. This sits roughly 70km (40 miles) north-east of Idlib City. The operation was highly successful with all of Aleppo City being liberated on December 12th 2016 (12/12/16).
However during the course of the Aleppo City operation the Army of Conquest's allies ISIL again launched an operation to capture Palmyra on approximately December 8th 2016 (8/12/16). As with the events of the spring of 2015 the intention was to split the Syrian's forces in order to allow ISIL to take the pressure off the Army of Conquest in Aleppo City. Although that failed ISIL were able to seize Palmyra for a second time on December 22nd 2016 (22/12/17).
On January 13th 2017 (13/1/17) the Syrians backed by Russia launched an operation to liberate Palmyra for a second time.
By January 19th (19/1/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra's military airbase. By February (24/2/17) the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the areas around Palmyra encircling the city. On March 1st (1/3/17) the Syrians entered Palmyra itself and by March 4th (4/3/17) the city had been fully liberated from ISIL.
Complicating matters further Syrian forces have been aided by the Lebanese political party-cum-militia Hezbollah.
Longterm allies of Syria Hezbollah were invited to assist in the fight against ISIL and the Army of Conquest in 2012. Since then they have operated as part of the Syrian forces playing a crucial role both in defeating ISIL to the point they were forced to invade Iraq in 2014 and in liberating Palmyra both in 2016 and this month.
A Shia-Muslim group Hezbollah were formed in response to Israel's invasion and occupation of Lebanon from 1982 until 1985. As such their primary objective is to fight Israel.
In the immediate term Hezbollah's involvement in the war in Syria against the Army of Conquest and ISIL has been to Israel's advantage. In short with Hezbollah being busy fighting ISIL and the Army of Conquest they haven't had much time left over to fight Israel.
However in the longer term Hezbollah's involvement in the Syria conflict presents a number of security problems for Israel.
As payment for their support Hezbollah are being rewarded with some of the more advanced weapons system's from the Syrian national armoury and their fighters are gaining highly valuable combat experience. As a result Israel has recently reclassified Hezbollah from being a terrorist group to being a conventional military force.
In 1967 Israel and Lebanon's neighbour Syria declared war on Israel by invading it. Although this is often referred to as; "The Six Day War" it is technically still going on. As is their right under international law Israel has periodically used the existing state of war to conduct airstrikes in Syria to stop Hezbollah transferring weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
In the wake of the liberation of Palmyra a very attractive opportunity presented itself to Israel.
Over the course of the last week it has been rumoured that senior Russian, Syrian and Hezbollah military figures have been meeting in Palmyra to plan an operation to fully liberate the city of Deir-ez-Zour - some 230km (140 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
As with Aleppo City prior to the December 2016 liberation control of Deir-ez-Zour has long been divided between ISIL and the Syrians. One of the Hezbollah representatives at these meetings was Badie Hamya - a very senior military leader within the group.
So last night the Israeli Air Force launched an operation to successfully attack Hezbollah positions at Palmyra and kill Badie Hamya. In response to this strike Syria activated its air defence systems and fired a number of Anti--Aircraft Missiles at the four Israel jets as they were leaving Syrian airspace.
This prompted Israel to sound its civilian air attack sirens and fire anti-missile missiles to shoot down the Syrian missiles. The majority of the wreckage from the successful shooting down of the Syrian missiles ended up landing in Syria and Israel's neighbour Jordan.
Although I think last night's raid was merely Israel taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself rather than a wider change in strategy it does present yet another reason why ISIL and their associates needed to be defeated sooner rather than later.
Israel has become increasingly concerned about the growth of Hezbollah within Syria and has lobbied both the US and Russia for action to be taken against them. As experience has shown if Israel does not feel that enough action is being taken on its behalf it will take action itself.
The problem is that if Hezbollah are forced to end its support for Syria then it will greatly reduce those prepared to fight against ISIL and their associates.
That creates a very real risk that the Army of Conquest in particular could continue to grow in Syria. Due to the Army of Conquest's genocidal massacres of Druze villagers close to the border with Israel back in the summer of 2015 Israel has already threatened to intervene in Syria against the Army of Conquest.
So until ISIL and the Army of Conquest are defeated we're going to be left with the same problem of potential Israeli intervention.
16:45 on 17/3/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 14 March 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 32, Week 4, Day 2.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul. Since the summer of 2014 this city in northern Iraq has functioned as the de facto capital of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) within the country.
The operation was intended as a combined one. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) would take the lead entering and liberating the city itself. The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias would liberate and secure the areas surrounding the city. The entire operation is being supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
On January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating the entire eastern side of the city known as; "The Left Bank." This was followed by a 25 day operational pause while preparations were made to liberate the western side of Mosul known as; "The Right Bank."
That second phase began on February 19th (19/2/17). On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul itself. This was done on two axis;
To the south the Iraqi Federal Police branch of the ISF entered via the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani military base complex. To the south-west the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (ICTS/Golden Division) branch of the ISF entered via the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood.
By March 1st (1/3/17) the Federal Police who continue to be predominately Muslim had succeeded in liberating Mosul's so-called; "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris River. They had also liberated the Fourth Bridge road and the four neighbourhoods south of that road to the Airport/Ghazlani complex.
By March 6th (6/3/17) this southern axis had advanced to liberate the government complex surrounding the al-Remah Square just south of Mosul's Old City district. This advance included liberating the Hurriyah Bridge, the Hurriyah Bridge road and al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods.
The Federal Police then proceeded to liberate the al-Akidat neighbourhood securing the neighbourhoods between the Fourth Bridge road, the Hurriyah Bridge road and al-Shaziani Street to the west.
Today (14/3/17) the Federal Police have advanced into the Bab al-Tob neighbourhood which is the most southern neighbourhood within the Old City district. They have also advanced only the banks of the Tigris from the Hurriyah Bridge to liberate the riverfront Corniche and the bridgehead of the Old Bridge.
By February 26th (26/2/17) the Golden Division branch of the ISF who also continue to be predominately Muslim had succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. They then proceeded to advance into the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood which sits directly north-west of the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. Liberation of the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood was completed by March 1st (1/3/17).
On March 5th (5/3/17) the Golden Division launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood which sits to the north of the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood on the outskirts of the city. This operation was completed on March 7th (7/3/17).
On March 8th (8/3/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which sits directly north of the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This saw them enter the first of several neighbourhoods which make up the New Mosul district.
Today (14/3/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the al-Jadidah neighbourhood which is the most eastern of the neighbourhoods in the New Mosul district. Within the last few hours it has been confirmed that the Golden Division have liberated the central Mosul Railway station. This sits just roughly 600 metres/yards from the rampart walls that border the western side of the Old City district.
Just outside of Mosul the PMF who are also predominately Muslim along with the ISF launched an operation on February 26th (26/2/17).
The objective of this operation was to advance north from positions around the village Tal Zalat - roughly 20km (12 miles) west of Mosul - to the town of Badush which sits roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul. This would succeed in cutting the H1 Highway to the town of Tal Afar which is held by ISIL but surrounded by the PMF before liberating Badush itself.
Control of the H1 Highway was secured on March 1st (1/3/17). By March 8th (8/3/17) both Badush prison and Badush power station had been liberated. Today (14/3/17) Badush and its surrounding villages have been declared fully liberated from ISIL. This includes securing control of the Badush road which was the last road out of Mosul. Even if it didn't go anywhere.
The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who are - you've guessed it - predominately Muslim have not seen combat since October 24 2016 (24/10/16) when they liberated the town of Top Zawa which is around 10km (6 miles) east of Mosul.
Although the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga continue to defend Top Zawa and numerous other positions east of Mosul this lack of action seems to have led Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to get bored and pick fights amongst themselves.
Around 140km (85 miles) west of Mosul you have the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. This was the first town that ISIL captured when they invaded northern Iraq back in August 2014.
The residents of Sinjar/Shingal tend to be Kurdish and followers of the Yezidi religion. Considering members of the Yezidi religion to be devil worshippers when they captured the town ISIL massacred 5,000 men and boys and kidnapped a similar number of women and girls for use as sex slaves. They forced the remaining 60,000 residents to flee up Mount Sinjar where they were left to die of thirst.
It was the atrocity of Sinjar that finally shamed the World into action against ISIL. However it fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to cross the border from Syria to climb Mount Sinjar to rescue the Yezidis.
In order to prevent further atrocities the YPG helped the residents of Sinjar to for the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) militia. The YBS were eventually absorbed into the wider PMF structure.
The YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition they helped create have long proved themselves to be the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria. For this they are absolutely despised by ISIL's main backer - Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan has long set out to destroy the YPG/SDF and in this effort he has found a surprising ally in the form of KRG President Masoud Barzani. At the behest of Erdogan Barzani established a force to rival the SDF known as; "The Roj Peshmerga." Numbering roughly 10,000 these are Syrian Kurds who fled as refugees to Iraq rather than fight ISIL as part of the SDF.
On March 2nd (2/3/17) Barzani ordered the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS in Sinjar. Following a day of clashes that saw significant casualties on both sides a delicate stand-off was negotiated. However Barzani has continued to refuse to withdraw the Roj Peshmerga from the area.
Today (14/3/17) the residents of Sinjar mounted a protest against the Roj Peshmerga's continued occupation.
The Roj Peshmerga responded by opening fire on the protesters killing one and wounding ten.
17:45 on 14/3/17 (UK date).
The operation was intended as a combined one. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) would take the lead entering and liberating the city itself. The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias would liberate and secure the areas surrounding the city. The entire operation is being supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
On January 25th 2017 (25/1/17) the operation had succeeded in liberating the entire eastern side of the city known as; "The Left Bank." This was followed by a 25 day operational pause while preparations were made to liberate the western side of Mosul known as; "The Right Bank."
That second phase began on February 19th (19/2/17). On February 23rd (23/2/17) the ISF entered western Mosul itself. This was done on two axis;
To the south the Iraqi Federal Police branch of the ISF entered via the Mosul International Airport/Ghazlani military base complex. To the south-west the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (ICTS/Golden Division) branch of the ISF entered via the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood.
By March 1st (1/3/17) the Federal Police who continue to be predominately Muslim had succeeded in liberating Mosul's so-called; "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris River. They had also liberated the Fourth Bridge road and the four neighbourhoods south of that road to the Airport/Ghazlani complex.
By March 6th (6/3/17) this southern axis had advanced to liberate the government complex surrounding the al-Remah Square just south of Mosul's Old City district. This advance included liberating the Hurriyah Bridge, the Hurriyah Bridge road and al-Dindan and al-Dawasa neighbourhoods.
The Federal Police then proceeded to liberate the al-Akidat neighbourhood securing the neighbourhoods between the Fourth Bridge road, the Hurriyah Bridge road and al-Shaziani Street to the west.
Today (14/3/17) the Federal Police have advanced into the Bab al-Tob neighbourhood which is the most southern neighbourhood within the Old City district. They have also advanced only the banks of the Tigris from the Hurriyah Bridge to liberate the riverfront Corniche and the bridgehead of the Old Bridge.
By February 26th (26/2/17) the Golden Division branch of the ISF who also continue to be predominately Muslim had succeeded in liberating the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. They then proceeded to advance into the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood which sits directly north-west of the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood. Liberation of the Hay al-Mamum neighbourhood was completed by March 1st (1/3/17).
On March 5th (5/3/17) the Golden Division launched an operation to liberate the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood which sits to the north of the Tal al-Rayyan neighbourhood on the outskirts of the city. This operation was completed on March 7th (7/3/17).
On March 8th (8/3/17) the Golden Division liberated the al-Moalimeen neighbourhood which sits directly north of the Tal al-Rumman neighbourhood. This saw them enter the first of several neighbourhoods which make up the New Mosul district.
Today (14/3/17) the Golden Division succeeded in liberating the al-Jadidah neighbourhood which is the most eastern of the neighbourhoods in the New Mosul district. Within the last few hours it has been confirmed that the Golden Division have liberated the central Mosul Railway station. This sits just roughly 600 metres/yards from the rampart walls that border the western side of the Old City district.
Just outside of Mosul the PMF who are also predominately Muslim along with the ISF launched an operation on February 26th (26/2/17).
The objective of this operation was to advance north from positions around the village Tal Zalat - roughly 20km (12 miles) west of Mosul - to the town of Badush which sits roughly 10km (6 miles) north-west of Mosul. This would succeed in cutting the H1 Highway to the town of Tal Afar which is held by ISIL but surrounded by the PMF before liberating Badush itself.
Control of the H1 Highway was secured on March 1st (1/3/17). By March 8th (8/3/17) both Badush prison and Badush power station had been liberated. Today (14/3/17) Badush and its surrounding villages have been declared fully liberated from ISIL. This includes securing control of the Badush road which was the last road out of Mosul. Even if it didn't go anywhere.
The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who are - you've guessed it - predominately Muslim have not seen combat since October 24 2016 (24/10/16) when they liberated the town of Top Zawa which is around 10km (6 miles) east of Mosul.
Although the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga continue to defend Top Zawa and numerous other positions east of Mosul this lack of action seems to have led Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to get bored and pick fights amongst themselves.
Around 140km (85 miles) west of Mosul you have the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. This was the first town that ISIL captured when they invaded northern Iraq back in August 2014.
The residents of Sinjar/Shingal tend to be Kurdish and followers of the Yezidi religion. Considering members of the Yezidi religion to be devil worshippers when they captured the town ISIL massacred 5,000 men and boys and kidnapped a similar number of women and girls for use as sex slaves. They forced the remaining 60,000 residents to flee up Mount Sinjar where they were left to die of thirst.
It was the atrocity of Sinjar that finally shamed the World into action against ISIL. However it fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to cross the border from Syria to climb Mount Sinjar to rescue the Yezidis.
In order to prevent further atrocities the YPG helped the residents of Sinjar to for the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) militia. The YBS were eventually absorbed into the wider PMF structure.
The YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition they helped create have long proved themselves to be the most effective anti-ISIL force within Syria. For this they are absolutely despised by ISIL's main backer - Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan has long set out to destroy the YPG/SDF and in this effort he has found a surprising ally in the form of KRG President Masoud Barzani. At the behest of Erdogan Barzani established a force to rival the SDF known as; "The Roj Peshmerga." Numbering roughly 10,000 these are Syrian Kurds who fled as refugees to Iraq rather than fight ISIL as part of the SDF.
On March 2nd (2/3/17) Barzani ordered the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS in Sinjar. Following a day of clashes that saw significant casualties on both sides a delicate stand-off was negotiated. However Barzani has continued to refuse to withdraw the Roj Peshmerga from the area.
Today (14/3/17) the residents of Sinjar mounted a protest against the Roj Peshmerga's continued occupation.
The Roj Peshmerga responded by opening fire on the protesters killing one and wounding ten.
17:45 on 14/3/17 (UK date).
Sunday, 12 March 2017
The Arab Spring: Rotterdam Edition.
You may have noticed that I frequently refer to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This reflects both Erdogan's aspirations and his changing role within Turkish politics.
In 2003 Erdogan became Turkish Prime Minister.
Well strictly speaking Erdogan's Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) was elected the largest party in Turkey's Parliament in 2002.
However having served 10 months in prison after inciting racial/religious hatred and violence against the democratic state Erdogan was constitutionally banned from becoming Prime Minister. So it took Abdullah Gul to serve as Prime Minister for a year in order to change the law to allow Erdogan to become Prime Minister.
In August 2014 Erdogan exceeded the constitutional term limits forcing him to step down as Prime Minister. So Erdogan simply took up the largely ceremonial role of President.
Erdogan now stands on the verge of becoming Turkey's Emperor with a constitutional reform bill.
This scraps the office of Prime Minister and establishes the office of President as the sole executive power within Turkey. It also allows the President to appoint his own cabinet without the approval of Parliament and Erdogan to serve in the role until 2030.
This matter of constitutional reform was a big issue in Turkey's June 2015 General Election. It was seen as a key factor in Turkish voters decision to deny Erdogan's AKP the Parliamentary majority needed to start constitutional reform.
However former US President Barack Obama decided he knew better than the Turkish electorate. So he gave Erdogan permission to start attacking Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Wrapped in the flag this allowed the AKP to secure a simple majority in the new election Erdogan called for November 2015.
The Turkish voters though still stopped short of giving the AKP the super majority they needed to unilaterally change the constitution. So the matter will go to a public referendum on April 15th (15/4/17).
With Turkish voters having tried and failed to stop Erdogan's power grab twice at the polls it is fair to assume that no-one in Turkey is particularly excited about this referendum. As a result the turnout is expected to be extremely low. This seems to be part of a deliberate strategy by Erdogan to keep any "No" voters at home by labelling them as terrorists.
To boost support for the "Yes" vote Erdogan has turned to Turkish citizens living outside of Turkey - predominately within the European Union (EU). After all they won't have to live with the consequences.
This comes at a time of growing hostility between Erdogan and the EU.
I think we all know about Erdogan's attempts to gain leverage in the Syria/Iraq conflict by flooding the EU with irregular migrants/refugees.
Likewise Erdogan's practice of using these migrant flows to conceal terrorists to attack the EU is equally well known. Although many have tried the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres, the March 22nd 2016 (22/3/16) Brussels attacks and the December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) truck attack in Berlin are hard to deny.
What is less talked about though is Erdogan's attempts to use Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence services to recruit Turkish nationals to act as a sort of fifth column against the EU nations hosting them.
One example that has received some public attention came on February 15th (15/2/17). Here Germany officials arrested four Turkish Imans attacked to the Diyanet department of the Turkish government. In conjunction with the Turkish Embassy in Germany they have been working to spy on and harass often German/Turkish dual nationals who disagreed with Erdogan.
This has obviously made EU nations less keen on allowing AKP ministers to address mass rallies in order to whip up Erdogan's fifth column into a frenzy against the nation hosting them.
Matters really came to a head last Saturday (4/3/17) when Germany withdrew permission for AKP rallies in Gaggenau, Cologne and Frechen. Erdogan initially responded by issuing bomb threats against the venues where the rallies had been scheduled to take place. He then escalated things further by accusing the Germans of being Nazis.
The situation deteriorated to the point that on Thursday (9/3/17) the German intelligence services issued a warning that Erdogan would launch a retaliatory terror attack against somewhere in south-west Germany at some point in the near future. That warning seemed prudent because that evening a terror attack was carried out against a railway station in the German city of Dusseldorf.
The account of the Dusseldorf attacker suffering from mental health problems is the sort of cover story intelligence services put out while debating whether to formally accuse a nation of an act of war.
The problem is that Germany has attempted to cover up every terror attack committed against it. Including by groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that Germany is already at war against. Therefore patience amongst Germany's peers has worn more than thin.
In response to the Dusseldorf attack Saturday (11/3/17) saw mass cancellations of AKP rallies in a host of EU nations. At last count two were cancelled in Austria, one in Germany and one in Sweden.
However the one that has caught everyone's attention was the rally in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. This was supposed to be attended by AKP foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. However in cancelling the rally the Netherlands denied entry to him and all other AKP ministers.
Refusing to respect the Netherlands' sovereignty and territorial integrity Erdogan instead dispatched Sayan Kaya the AKP's minister for families. The AKP does not believe in women's rights. As she arrived in Rotterdam the Dutch police arrested Kaya illegally entering the country and deported her.
In an effort to prevent the Dutch police intervening the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam gathered its fifth column for a mass protest in the streets of Rotterdam. This quickly descended into a riot.
12:50 on 12/3/17 (UK date).
In 2003 Erdogan became Turkish Prime Minister.
Well strictly speaking Erdogan's Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) was elected the largest party in Turkey's Parliament in 2002.
However having served 10 months in prison after inciting racial/religious hatred and violence against the democratic state Erdogan was constitutionally banned from becoming Prime Minister. So it took Abdullah Gul to serve as Prime Minister for a year in order to change the law to allow Erdogan to become Prime Minister.
In August 2014 Erdogan exceeded the constitutional term limits forcing him to step down as Prime Minister. So Erdogan simply took up the largely ceremonial role of President.
Erdogan now stands on the verge of becoming Turkey's Emperor with a constitutional reform bill.
This scraps the office of Prime Minister and establishes the office of President as the sole executive power within Turkey. It also allows the President to appoint his own cabinet without the approval of Parliament and Erdogan to serve in the role until 2030.
This matter of constitutional reform was a big issue in Turkey's June 2015 General Election. It was seen as a key factor in Turkish voters decision to deny Erdogan's AKP the Parliamentary majority needed to start constitutional reform.
However former US President Barack Obama decided he knew better than the Turkish electorate. So he gave Erdogan permission to start attacking Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Wrapped in the flag this allowed the AKP to secure a simple majority in the new election Erdogan called for November 2015.
The Turkish voters though still stopped short of giving the AKP the super majority they needed to unilaterally change the constitution. So the matter will go to a public referendum on April 15th (15/4/17).
With Turkish voters having tried and failed to stop Erdogan's power grab twice at the polls it is fair to assume that no-one in Turkey is particularly excited about this referendum. As a result the turnout is expected to be extremely low. This seems to be part of a deliberate strategy by Erdogan to keep any "No" voters at home by labelling them as terrorists.
To boost support for the "Yes" vote Erdogan has turned to Turkish citizens living outside of Turkey - predominately within the European Union (EU). After all they won't have to live with the consequences.
This comes at a time of growing hostility between Erdogan and the EU.
I think we all know about Erdogan's attempts to gain leverage in the Syria/Iraq conflict by flooding the EU with irregular migrants/refugees.
Likewise Erdogan's practice of using these migrant flows to conceal terrorists to attack the EU is equally well known. Although many have tried the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) Paris Massacres, the March 22nd 2016 (22/3/16) Brussels attacks and the December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) truck attack in Berlin are hard to deny.
What is less talked about though is Erdogan's attempts to use Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence services to recruit Turkish nationals to act as a sort of fifth column against the EU nations hosting them.
One example that has received some public attention came on February 15th (15/2/17). Here Germany officials arrested four Turkish Imans attacked to the Diyanet department of the Turkish government. In conjunction with the Turkish Embassy in Germany they have been working to spy on and harass often German/Turkish dual nationals who disagreed with Erdogan.
This has obviously made EU nations less keen on allowing AKP ministers to address mass rallies in order to whip up Erdogan's fifth column into a frenzy against the nation hosting them.
Matters really came to a head last Saturday (4/3/17) when Germany withdrew permission for AKP rallies in Gaggenau, Cologne and Frechen. Erdogan initially responded by issuing bomb threats against the venues where the rallies had been scheduled to take place. He then escalated things further by accusing the Germans of being Nazis.
The situation deteriorated to the point that on Thursday (9/3/17) the German intelligence services issued a warning that Erdogan would launch a retaliatory terror attack against somewhere in south-west Germany at some point in the near future. That warning seemed prudent because that evening a terror attack was carried out against a railway station in the German city of Dusseldorf.
The account of the Dusseldorf attacker suffering from mental health problems is the sort of cover story intelligence services put out while debating whether to formally accuse a nation of an act of war.
The problem is that Germany has attempted to cover up every terror attack committed against it. Including by groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that Germany is already at war against. Therefore patience amongst Germany's peers has worn more than thin.
In response to the Dusseldorf attack Saturday (11/3/17) saw mass cancellations of AKP rallies in a host of EU nations. At last count two were cancelled in Austria, one in Germany and one in Sweden.
However the one that has caught everyone's attention was the rally in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. This was supposed to be attended by AKP foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. However in cancelling the rally the Netherlands denied entry to him and all other AKP ministers.
Refusing to respect the Netherlands' sovereignty and territorial integrity Erdogan instead dispatched Sayan Kaya the AKP's minister for families. The AKP does not believe in women's rights. As she arrived in Rotterdam the Dutch police arrested Kaya illegally entering the country and deported her.
In an effort to prevent the Dutch police intervening the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam gathered its fifth column for a mass protest in the streets of Rotterdam. This quickly descended into a riot.
12:50 on 12/3/17 (UK date).
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