The NYE Terror Threat.

Throughout much of 2014 and 2015 the west and Europe in particular has been under constant and severe threat of terrorist attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups. This threat was called into sharp focus by the November 13th (13/11/15) massacres in Paris, France.

Just because we've all taken a few days off to celebrate Christmas does not mean that this threat has suddenly disappeared. In fact it will be with us until ISIL are destroyed.

Tomorrow's (31/12/15) New Years Eve (NYE) celebrations represent a prime target for a mass casualty terror attack. That is because they often involve huge crowds of people gathering out in the open at local landmarks.

Also despite the fact that it is a completely secular celebration with absolutely no religious dimension to it there is something of a misconception amongst the Islamic world that New Years Eve is a Christian festival. ISIL are also likely to accuse it of being Pagan.

I don't bring this up to alarm people or cause them to do anything other then celebrate as the would normally. After all we pay people to worry about this sort of thing and they are certainly aware of the increased threat and taking the appropriate precautions.

As part of doing that job on Saturday (26/12/15) Austria announced that it had received a warning that an attack was planned against NYE celebrations in Vienna. What is curious about this is that Austria did not reveal who had provided the intelligence leading to this warning describing it as simply coming from "a friendly nation."

This would suggest that it didn't come from one of Austria's formal NATO allies. As the birthplace of Adolf Hitler Austria along with Germany is very keen to let it be known that it is friends with Israel and this is often how Israeli intelligence is described.

However if the intelligence had been provided by Russia as part of its fight against ISIL it would be a big step for Austria to describe Russia as a friend. After all the US is currently refusing to read intelligence on ISIL provided by Russia.

Announcing to a group of spies that you know a secret but you're not going to tell them what it is is probably one of the worst things you can do. As a result over the past couple of days various other nations have been issuing their own security warnings in the hope of finding the source for Austria's warning.

Yesterday (29/12/15) authorities in Belgium announced that they'd arrested two men who were plotting an attack against NYE crowds in Brussels' Grand Place square.

In the past Belgium has been an enthusiastic supporter of ISIL not only sending many of its Muslims citizens to fight for the group in Syria and Iraq  but also allowing them to return home. The Charlie Hebdo attacks of January 2015 along with the thwarted August 21st (21/8/15) attack aboard a Thalys train and the Paris Massacres all seem to have been organised in Belgium to some extent.

Therefore while I don't doubt there was genuine criminal intent with no weapons being found I think that this latest Belgian terror plot was more at the aspirational stage rather then a plan that was ready to go into action. Apart from shutting down an active terror cell the timing of the arrests seem to be an enquiry as to whether this was the plot the Austrians were referring to.

Later yesterday a shopping mall near the city of Basel in Switzerland had to be evacuated after a bomb threat that later turned out to be a hoax. Again this seemed to be an enquiry as to the nature of the Austrian intelligence. However it also seemed to be a reference to an incident that happened at a shopping mall in the Bromley area of South London, UK on Saturday (26/12/15).

Essentially what happened is that two men got into a knife fight within the shopping mall. This caused the police to be called and the mall evacuated. Bromley is the next area London borough over from where I live in Croydon. In fact close to Crystal Palace Park there is a one-way road system that forces you to drive from Croydon into Southwark, into Bromley and back into Croydon all within 100 metre/yards or so.

Knowing the area as I do I'm aware that this type of incident isn't actually that uncommon. In fact if it hadn't occurred on what was a very slow news day I doubt it would have made the frontpage of the local newspaper let alone the national news. As such I almost immediately disregarded it as irrelevant.

Today Turkey has announced that it has arrested two men it claims were plotting suicide bomb attacks against NYE crowds in Ankara.

The last month has been spent trying to prevent Turkey invading Syria in support of ISIL and there are still the unresolved questions over Turkey's involvement in the October 31st (31/10/15) bombing of Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 over Egypt and the Paris Massacres. Therefore Turkey is keen to convince Europe that it is its ally against ISIL rather than ISIL's ally against Europe by showing that it too is threatened by ISIL.

Also Turkey definitely did shoot down an Russian Su-24 jet on November 24th (24/11/15) and is widely suspected of downing flight 7K9268. Therefore it would be very interested to know if Europe is now considering Russia to be "a friendly nation."

The US also seems to be getting in on the act. Yesterday its controversial Justice Department announced that it had successfully prosecuted a man for attacking an Islamic centre and defacing copies of the Qu'ran in Missouri back in 2011. This seemed to be a reference to events on the French island of Corsica over the weekend.

Essentially what happened is that on Christmas Eve (24/12/15) a group of Muslim Arab youths attacked firefighters and the police officers guarding them while they tackled a blaze that appears to have been set on purpose in order to ambush first responders. 

This prompted a lot of local anger and on Christmas Day (25/12/15) a group of around 300 local residents ran riot through the predominately Arab housing estate where the attack took place. During the course of this riot an Islamic centre was attacked and copies of the Qu'ran were destroyed.

There is obviously no excusing this. However over the past year ISIL - in the name of Islam - have been almost attacking Europeans - particularly in France. For example I think quite a few people considered the Paris Massacres to be somewhat offensive. It is a fact of life that there is only so long you can be perceived to be poking someone in the eye before eventually they turn round and punch you in the face.

To my mind this rise in Islamaphobia and the backlash against Muslims who have absolutely nothing to do with ISIL is yet another reason why we need to destroy ISIL and associated groups sooner rather then later.

By highlighting how it is cracking down on Islamaphobic hate crime the US instead seems to be lecturing France that it shouldn't be concerned about ISIL but instead should focus on the people who are outraged by what ISIL are doing.

Given that US President Obama's response to the Paris Massacres was to blow off America's oldest ally in order to effectively go on holiday to Turkey and Malaysia I don't think the US is in much of a position to lecture anybody on anything.

17:00 on 30/12/15 (UK date).