Certainly since August 9th (9/8/15) when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) to cede the Syrian town of Maera to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Turkey has wanted to invade Syria.
Despite strong suspicions that the purpose of this invasion would be to eliminate the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) and re-establish ISIL supply lines to Turkey this plan has been quietly progressing.
It now has a - somewhat terrible - codename "Cerabulus" and a prospective "D-Day" - December 16th (16/12/15).
So on Friday (4/12/15) Turkey decided to test the diplomatic waters by sending a 1,200 strong invasion force to Iraq where Russian forces do not operate. Since Friday this Turkish force has set up base in Bashika which is around 12km (7 miles) north of Mosul - ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq.
The Iraqi government responded to this by declaring Turkey's invasion of its territory a gross violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity in contravention of Chapter 1 on the United Nations (UN) Charter.
On Sunday (6/12/15) the Iraqi government gave Turkey 48 hours to withdraw its invasion force or it will take the matter up with the UN Security Council (UNSC). Based on the warning coming into effect at 00:01 (local) on Monday (7/12/15) that deadline has now passed.
Russia has already indicated that it will be sponsoring Iraq's submission to the UNSC with a closed door session being scheduled for Thursday (10/12/15).
However as I write rumours are circulating that the UNSC has already convened on this issue with a view to issuing a resolution against Turkey by Thursday. Good luck though getting confirmed information out of a closed door UNSC session.
The fact that Russia would be prepared to sponsor Iraq's submission is hardly a surprise.
In fact on Sunday (6/12/15) Russian strategic bombers - initially I heard "Kalibr" (NATO: "Sizzler") Cruise-type missiles - struck Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. En route to their target these Russian bombers flew low and hard over Bashika. Sending the message that they definitely could if they wanted to.
Later that night US aircraft assigned to the anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - struck the Syrian Army base at Saeqa which is just outside the ISIL controlled town of Deir-ez-Zour. 3 Syrian soldiers were killed in this attack and 13 others injured.
As CJTFOIR only has authority to operate within Syria in order to defeat ISIL and the Al Qaeda affiliated JAF this represents a gross violation of international law. It could even be viewed as the US conducting an illegal act of war against Syria.
Obviously the attack could have been the US sending the message that if Russia were to bomb Turkish troops at Bashika the US would respond by dropping the pretence of fighting ISIL & JAF and instead formally declare war on Syria.
Alternatively the US could have been sending the message that if Russia were to 'accidentally' bomb Bashika the US wouldn't be too upset about it. Especially if it meant that the US wouldn't have to use its UNSC veto in the formal defence of ISIL.
The US of course has fully denied any involvement in the air-strikes against Saeqa.
So while US President Barack Obama was using his prime-time Sunday (6/12/15) to all but officially pledge allegiance to ISIL the US been working to sound out its allies on the Turkish issue.
For example on Sunday (6/12/15 a US/Jordanian duel national aboard a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt, Germany to Belgrade, Serbia had to be restrained after trying to force his way onto the flightdeck.
This was a reference to the March 24th (24/3/15) crash of 4U9525 which was operated by as subsidiary of Lufthansa "Germanwings." That was largely seen as a European reference to the way that Obama's rather radical foreign policy seems intended to smash us all into the side of a mountain.
Serbia is a rather contentious nation because in 1999 then US President Bill Clinton tried to distract from impeachment proceedings against by starting a wholly illegal war to steal Serbia's southern Kosovo province and hand it to Albania.
Along with neighbouring Macedonia Serbia currently forms part of what has become known as; "The Balkan Route" for Syrian refugees headed to the European Union (EU).
Macedonia remains concerned that it will suffer the same fate as Kosovo.
In turn on Monday (7/12/15) an Airbus A321 operated by the German airline "Condor" en route from Berlin, Germany to Hurghada, Egypt was forced to make an emergency landing in Budapest, Hungary after a hoax bomb warning was issued.
A hoax bomb threat against civilian airliners has becoming known is security circles as "The Erdogan Signature." It was of course a Russian Airbus A321 that was brought down by a bomb over Egypt on October 31st (31/10/15). With or without Turkish support ISIL have claimed responsibility for that attack the issue of which is clearly not going away.
As a result this seems to be the EU sounding out its members over the US request for information. After all along with Poland Hungary has a reputation for coming down on the wrong side of important EU issues recently.
Speaking of which also on Monday (7/12/15) a school in Hofors, Sweden had to be placed on lock-down following a reports of an attacker with a knife. After much genuine panic those reports later turned out to be false.
This could have been interpreted as a reference to the Islamist terror attack in Leytonstone, London, UK on Saturday (5/12/15) and I suppose in a very abstract way it was.
Although it seems unlikely the Leytonstone attacker - whom it has been strongly suggested suffered from mental health 'issues' - is a formal member of any of the Palestinian liberation organisations in his choice of tactics he certainly been influenced by the wave of stabbing attacks that have been plaguing Israel recently.
While they've never been that far away this current wave of knife attacks really began in September 2015 and seem to be continuing at the rate of 2 or 3 a day. They seem to be fuelled by the continuing presence of ISIL in Syria which at certain points is literally a spitting distance away from Israel.
By recognising ISIL as the 'Islamic State' in a desperate effort for feel rebellious western media outlets such as the BBC News and Sky News have been telling the Palestinian youth that in order to achieve a state they don't need to bother with all this capacity building and negotiation. Instead they simply need to do violence and recognition will be handed to them on a platter.
I personally have been taking the position that if we can't bring ourselves to condemn the violent actions of the Palestinian youth then we should ignore it. The hope being that when they finally realise that violence is no route to statehood they'll stop.
Unfortunately this plan doesn't seem to be working and the youths continued commitment to violence seems to be undermining the older heads of the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority (PA) who have long been committed to statehood through negotiation with Israel.
As a result Israel has been very quietly but very seriously preparing contingency plans for the ISIL overthrow of the Palestinian Authority and the end of the two-state solution. A key element of this plan is the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) moving to place the West Bank town of Hebron under occupation.
Those who currently decry the Israeli occupation of Palestine clearly don't remember the old days.
On Friday (4/12/15) the Margot Wallstrom - the Swedish Foreign Minister - ignored all good advice and decided to cheer on the Palestinian youth by accusing Israel of extra-judicial killing when they shoot dead these knife-attackers.
In an effort to defend his errant minister on Sunday (6/12/15) Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven claimed that these Palestinian knife attacks weren't terrorism.
Judging by the panic that the mere rumour of a knife attack caused in Sweden on Monday (7/12/15) I think it's fair to assume that the credibility of both Ms Wallstrom and Mr Lofven has been significantly undermined.
Today and Air France passenger jet from San Francisco, US to Paris, France had to be diverted to Montreal, Canada following another hoax bomb threat.
This seems to be a rather elegant recreation of the July 29th (29/7/15) incident in which a British Airways passenger jet from Las Vegas, US to London, UK also had to be diverted to Montreal, Canada following a hoax bomb threat.
That of course was a formal UK protest over Turkey's decision to start bombing anti-ISIL forces in northern Iraq.
This evening Turkey appears to have responded by again bombing anti-ISIL forces in northern Iraq.
22:55 on 8/12/15 (UK date).
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