COP21: Coast Guard on Stand-by.

Following almost a night and a day of continuous closed door negotiations delegates at the High Level segment of the COP21 Summit have all but admitted that they lack the basis for a global climate change agreement.

However for them to admit this formally would mean that US President Barack Obama would be unable to build the extension to his Presidential Library explaining how he saved the World from climate change. Instead he'd have to include a small exhibit on how he wasted everyone's time for three months and delayed the agreement by a year.

Likewise France would by unable to revel in global glory they've been dreaming of over the past five years. There would be particular questions over French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius' decision to accept the conclusions of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (ADP) despite it being obvious that their work preparing the negotiating text was incomplete.

So this evening a revised 27 page draft was released. This remains adamant that the ADP has completed its work and its mandate is at an end. It also remains adamant that an agreement has been reached on schedule. It also sets the date of April 22nd 2016 (22/4/16) for a formal signing ceremony to take place at the United Nations HQ in New York City, US.

However it also establishes the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA). This is tasked with completing all the work that the ADP failed to complete in preparation for COP21. For example drawing up a standard format for the INDC's.

Although a sign of progress this rather shoddy political compromise is still far from acceptable.

While the APA has to complete the work of the ADP it won't have the same remit and resources. For example it will be unable to amend the agreement that created it. That is a significant problem because parts of the text of that agreement are currently a barrier to effective action.

For example it contains specific language which commits nations that have submitted Absolute Emission Reductions (AER's) to continuing to submit AER's.

It's really an issue I would have liked to have discussed in the run-up to and during COP21 but nations that did sign up to the Kyoto Protocol and have already taken serious action to reduce emissions are now reaching the limits of how far they can reduce their future emissions.

Therefore over the 80-100 year lifespan of the agreement it might be better all around for them to move to intensity reductions accompanied by increase additional action to developing nations who are transitioning from intensity reductions to AER's.

So while I fully understand the importance of preventing backsliding the language used in the draft agreement is not sufficient and therefore needs more work.

Also the draft agreement mandates a five year commitment cycle. This is completely incompatible with a vital capacity building peer review process that occurs at the 5 year point in a 10 year commitment cycle. A 2.5 year ex post process is simply unworkable.

Critically the draft agreement still lacks a sunset clause meaning that if signed it will be in effect and ineffective forever.

Therefore the only way forward is for COP21 to admit that it has failed in its task and renew the mandate of the ADP so its work can be completed at COP22.

Given the way South Africa have conducted themselves recently I'm certainly open to it being re-named the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Platform (APP). But only if it has the same mandate and authority.

22:35 on 10/12/15 (UK date).