In my post yesterday I explained how Turkey's plans to invade Syria in support of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had been thwarted by the international backlash against Turkey's small scale invasion of Bashika in northern Iraq.
I also explained how with the threat of Turkish invasion lifted the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) had been able to advance capturing the Tishan Dam across the Euphrates River. This cuts pretty much the last main supply route between Turkey and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's response to this latest loss by ISIL has been typically furious.
The first thing that Erdogan did was December 11th (11/12/15) he appeared to deploy the Turkish troops that would have been used in the December 16th (16/12/15) invasion of Syria to instead invade the predominately Kurdish province of Mardin in southern Turkey.
In doing this Erdogan seems to be following ISIL's longstanding advice to its supporters that if they cannot travel to Syria or Iraq to fight for ISIL they should carry out attacks on ISIL's behalf within their own countries.
On December 23rd (23/12/15) a bomb exploded on a Turkish passenger jet while it was sitting empty on the tarmac at Istanbul's Sabiha Gokcen airport. One cleaner who had been working on the aircraft was killed while another was injured.
The aircraft in question was being operated by the Turkish budget carrier "Pegasus Airlines." This seems to be a reference to the pan-Arab military alliance led by Saudi Arabia that has been codenamed "Pegasus."
In Greek mythology Pegasus is a warrior horse that can bring lightening and thunder from the skies. He was captured by Bellerophon who used Pegasus to defeat the Chimera - a creature with no dominante species. Among Pegasus' many powers was that wherever he stomped his hooves and spring of water would appear.
The so-called Arab Spring that created ISIL was Saudi Arabia trying to consolidate its power over the region by overthrowing governments and replacing them with puppet regimes. The purpose of the new military alliance is to make the process much easier for the Saudis.
On a visit to Ridyah, Saudi Arabia yesterday (29/12/15) Erdogan formally announced that Turkey was no only joining the Saudi-led alliance but was also forming a specific strategic alliance between the two countries. As such the Pegasus bomb seemed to be a clear Turkish threat that if the world continued to challenge Erdogan's support for ISIL that he and his Saudi friends would fight absolutely everyone.
Of course the bombing was eventually blamed on the Kurds. This was done in order to whip Turkish nationalists into an anti-Kurdish frenzy allowing Erdogan to justify his support for ISIL.
However it was blamed specifically on a group called the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK). This seemed to be Erdogan expressing his frustration over the end of the US train & equip program that Turkey exploited to support ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. One of the last groups the US trained and equipped before the program was shut down was the Falcons of Mount Zawiya.
On Friday (25/12/15) - Christmas Day - there was a particularly bizarre story in which it was reported that Erdogan had talked a man out of committing suicide by jumping off Istanbul's Bosphorus Bridge.
What actually happened is that the man had been standing on the bridge waiting for the arrival of Erdogan's motorcade which crosses the bridge at the same time every day. When the motorcade arrived Erdogan's security detailed simply grabbed hold of the man and frog-marched him to Erdogan's limousine.
With Erdogan having been humiliated by being forced to cancel his invasion plans this little stunt allowed him to reassert his image as the heroic - almost Messianic - saviour of the Turkish people and the world's Muslims. At that point he may even have been feeling a little jealous of Jesus.
However it also allowed Erdogan to issue a threat to the QSD as they were undertaking their Tishan Dam operation. The message being that if the QSD were to take that fatal next step of crossing the dam/bridge Erdogan wouldn't hesitate to send his security forces to stop them.
The QSD went ahead and liberated the dam anyway.
Although we all knew what its true purpose was Turkey's official explanation for sending 1,200 troops uninvited into northern Iraq was to provide force protection at the Bashika base which is close to the Mosul frontline.
On the date assigned for the Syria invasion - December 16th (16/12/15) - ISIL launched a sustained rocket attack against the Bashika base. This seemed like a deliberate attempt by ISIL to prove Turkey's point in the hope of keeping the Syria invasion plan on track if delayed.
On Monday (28/12/15) ISIL again launched another rocket attack on the Bashika base. On this occasion Turkey almost immediately responded with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu - effectively Erdogan's deputy - announcing that the attack proved that Turkey was right to send its troops into Iraq and in response it would end the withdrawal that began on December 13th (13/12/15).
That contributes to a growing sense that Turkey considers its invasion plans as merely postponed rather then cancelled and will continue to press for the go ahead.
This really underlines what has been a long-running problem with Erdogan.
Even as far back as June 2012 when Turkey sent an F-4 Phantom to invade Syrian air-space in the hope the inevitable shooting down would provide an excuse for a Turkish invasion of Syria Erdogan has a habit of doing things that are both stupid and aggressive. This then forces everyone to work extra hard to put pressure on Erdogan to back down.
The US President Obama then comes along, undercuts everybody else and Erdogan goes back to being stupid and aggressive.
It would be nice that in his eighth year as President Obama could finally develop even a hint of situational awareness.
18:25 on 30/12/15 (UK date).
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