COP21 Terrorism Update #13.

The defining feature of negotiations over a new global climate change agreement has been Saudi Arabia's use of Islamist terrorism to intimidate nations.

With the atrocity of a draft agreement that COP21 delegates produced on December 12th (12/12/15) this has become an even more important factor. In order to come into force the COP21 draft needs to be ratified by 55 nations.

India and China are practically guaranteed to ratify the draft because it is massive biased in their favour. The US is also likely to ratify it through executive order because it allows US President Barack Obama to once again claim that he's saved the world.

As the draft prevents any meaningful action to combat climate change being taken at any point in the future the Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia are also practically guaranteed to ratify it. They are likely to bring with them the 22 nations that make up the Arab League.

This however still leaves the draft 30 votes short of coming into force. Obviously this puts the 28 nation European Union (EU) effectively in the position of deciding whether the COP21 draft comes into force or whether we can re-start work on an agreement that might actually work.

Rather then waiting to see what the EU will decide though it seems clear that Saudi Arabia will be using terrorism to scare up the 30 necessary votes.

With the possible exception of South America there is not a continent on earth that hasn't been threatened by Saudi Arabia's terrorism in someway. However the main focus has always been on East/Central Africa which is located just across the Gulf of Aden from Saudi Arabia. It is these nations that have rather rudely decided to stand between the al-Sauds and the vast mineral wealth of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

So on Saturday (19/12/15) there was yet another terrorist bombing in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. Apparently this car bomb attack which killed three attacked a cinema and a shopping mall/supermarket. It has been claimed by Al Shabaab who it is well established are being supplied by Saudi Arabia via Yemen. That is why Saudi Arabia is desperate to keep Yemen under its control.

As such the attack was yet another show of force by Saudi Arabia to remind East/Central African nations that it can come and get them anytime it likes. In case anyone missed this threat Italy flagged it up with hoax bomb threats against a museum of cinema and a shopping centre in Turin on Sunday (20/12/15).

Although a short and sharp display the Mogadishu bombing was intended as a reminder to governments in the region that terrorism isn't the only way that Saudi Arabia can get to them. More specific plans to remove troublesome governments are already underway.

So in Somalia's neighbour Ethiopia the tensions with the Oromo ethnic group has suddenly flared up again into violent protests.

Tension between ethnic groups has long been the mark of many African nations but these specific problems began in April 2014 when the Ethiopian government announced plans to bring the Oromia region where the Oromo live into the administrative control of the capital Addis Ababa. Fearing that will reduce their power Oromo tribal leaders have been sending people out onto the streets in protest.

Violence has also flared in the DRC's neighbour Burundi. This really started out in April 2015 as popular protests against plans by the President Pierre Nkurunziza to scrap constitutional term limits and run for a third term. However save for a failed coup attempt in September things did really calm down after Nkurunziza won that third term in a July election.

As we've come to expect the US' response to all this has been at best utterly shambolic.

On the situation in Ethiopia the US Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Samantha Power has announced support for the Oromo protests. She was particularly critical of Ethiopian attempts to use anti-terror measures to bring and end to the violence.

The message there seems to be quite clearly that not only won't America protect African nations from Saudi terrorism it will actually aid the terrorists by condemning nations that try to protect themselves.

Particularly during his trip to Kenya in July US President Obama has made the situation in Burundi one of his pet projects. As a result that international response the latest crisis which began on December 11th (11/12/15) - the scheduled closing date of COP21.

On Friday (18/12/15) the African Union (AU) announced that it was sending 5000 peacekeepers to Burundi. If the Burundi government refuses then the AU will send them anyway under a clause that was brought in after the 1994 Rwandan genocide to prevent war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. That is hugely controversial because while the situation in Burundi is bad it is nowhere near that bad.

In response to this announcement the UN Security Council (UNSC) discussed the matter on Saturday (19/12/15). Not only did Ambassador Power express the US' full support for the AU's move she went further warning that if President Nkurunziza doesn't work with the AU the US will simply seek a new mediation partner.

The threat to African governments was quite clear; "Do as America says and sign what America tells you to sign or America will simply replace with someone who will."

Ambassador Power's comments caused a lot of shock because they gave the impression that her understanding of the situation in Burundi is so poor that it is doubtful she could point to the nation on a map.

A lot of people have suggested that this recent round of unrest has been caused by agitators who are being sponsored by the government of Paul Kagame in Burundi's neighbour to the north Rwanda which in turn is Kenya's neighbour to the west. A common reaction to the AU's announcement was; "If you want to stop the violence in Burundi send the peacekeepers to Rwanda."

So on Sunday (20/12/15) an Air France passenger jet flying from Mauritius to Paris, France had to be diverted to Mombasa, Kenya amid what turned out to be an elaborate bomb hoax.

In climate change negotiations Mauritius is what is referred to as a Small Island, Developing State (SIDS). This group of nations are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as rising sea levels and more violent storms. Due to their small size - Mauritius is relatively large with a population of 1.2 million - they are also the least able to deal with the effects of climate change.

Many of the SIDS are particularly concerned by the permanent effects of climate change which are known in the jargon as "Loss & Damage." Although it has recently been incorporated into the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss & Damage" much of the work in this area has been done as part of the "Nairobi Work Program on Loss & Damage" which was set up in the Kenyan capital Nairobi.

As a result bordering Somalia, Ethiopia, Rwanda etc Kenya is very much ground zero for this type of discussion.

The hoax bomb - which had been prepared by the French police - was nothing more then a stack of blank paper with an electronic timer taped to the top. In an effort to pass any agreement by executive action US President Obama has stripped out anything meaningful to the point where it may as well be a stack of blank paper.

In fact because the COP21 draft prevents meaningful action being taken at any point in the future it may have been better if COP21 had simply produced a stack of blank paper.

Therefore the whole incident seemed to be France asking if the US was in any way aware of any of these issues

In response to the backlash Ambassador Power tried to salvage her credibility by on Sunday (20/12/15) by issuing a statement condemning Paul Kagame's attempts to scrap constitutional term limits in Rwanda. Sadly though she just dug herself deeper into the hole.

Ever since he fought for Yoweri Museveni during Uganda's civil war in 1980 Kagame has earned a reputation as someone you've got to keep an eye on.

In 1990 he invaded Rwanda from Uganda as part of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). It was the suspected RPF assassination of Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana that triggered the 1994 genocide. Kagame did very well out of that genocide assuming the role of vice President before becoming President in 2000. As President he has long supported groups fighting in the neighbouring DRC's numerous civil wars including the diamond rich Kivu region.

In fact you might go so far as to say that the only thing that is keeping Kagame away from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and therefore prison is the fact that he has brought Rwanda into the UK Commonwealth.

Therefore I don't trust him. However even I understand that in the current climate in East/Central that if he were to be overthrown the person who would replace him would be much worse.

Unfortunately the US doesn't seem to understand these things. Take for example Nigeria. The US foolishly assumed that the Boko Haram insurgency was simply oppressed Muslims rising up. So if they replaced Goodluck Jonathan with Muhammadu Buhari it would simply end. 

That hasn't happened but I'm sure Saudi Arabia can now count on Nigeria ratifying the COP21 draft.

Overnight the US effectively threw up its hands and conceded the point that President Obama is in fact useless.

This took the form of a car ploughing into a group of pedestrians outside the Paris hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, US. The connection with COP21 Paris and the preceding Paris Massacres should be obvious.

The reason why this was initially investigated as a potential terrorist attack because this type of attack - known as a run-over attack - has become common in Israel over that past two years. In his supposed fight against terrorism US President Obama could learn a lot from what is going on in Israel.

For example Obama's response to the December 2nd (2/12/15) San Bernardino terror attack was to call for tighter gun control. 

Israel actually has very tight gun control with firearms permits only really being available to those who have served in either the military or the police. Even then they have to be recommended for one by a serving, senior military or police officer and undergo yearly medical and proficiency tests. Palestinians aren't allowed guns at all.

However the terror attacks continue - currently at the rate of several a week. Instead of guns the attackers simply use knives or cars.

Also Obama seems to have got it into his head that these terrorists are simply good Muslims protesting about the way they're being oppressed. So if he brings in Buhari Boko Haram will disappear, if he gets rid of Assad Syria will suddenly be peaceful and if he closes Guantanamo Bay Muslims will no longer try and attack America.

It's long been claimed that the current wave of terrorism in Israel is being caused by plans to close down the Al Asqa Mosque. This simply isn't true. It is merely something the Palestinians have made up to justify their violence.

So Obama can continue making concessions to the terrorists but they will simply invent new excuses for their terrorism. Therefore Obama's only option is to confront and defeat the terrorists rather then constantly trying to appease them.

The driver in the Las Vegas incident has been identified as a black female. This is a reference to Obama's support for the terrorism of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. By supporting BLM Obama has been engaging in the sort of grubby ethnic politics that has long blighted many African nations such as the DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, Ethiopia etc.

If Obama can't see that is what he is doing then he is incapable of being part of the solution to Africa's problems. 

21:45 on 21/12/15 (UK date).