The Crash of Flight 7K9268.

On Saturday (31/10/15) morning Kogalymavia flight 7K9268 crashed in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula killing all 224. This is the worst air disaster in Russia's history.

The aircraft's black boxes have both being recovered and an investigation is currently underway. I think it is inappropriate to speculate wildly about what may have caused the crash until more is known.

However I think I should probably discuss the wider political context in which the crash occurred.

Back on December 17th 2010 (17/12/10) a young Tunisian man named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest at constant harassment by corrupt local police. His death sparked what has become known as the Jasmine Revolution that overthrew Tunisia's dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali just 28 days later.

This inspired the people of Egypt to rise up against their dictator Hosni Mubarak overthrowing him on February 11th 2011 (11/2/11).

Sadly the most oppressive regime in the region - Saudi Arabia - saw this wave of protest as an opportunity to bring the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region under it's control.

So with the help of Qatar, Turkey and sadly the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) they flooded Libya with Islamist terrorists to overthrow the government of Muammer Qaddafi. They then flooded Syria with Islamist terrorists in an effort to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad.

When the people of Egypt decided to reclaim their revolution from the Islamist dictatorship of Mohamed Morsi that country too was flooded with Islamist terrorists located mainly in the north of the Sinai.

Collectively the Islamist terrorist in these countries grew into the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which also invaded Syria's neighbour Iraq.

Against this onslaught Russia stood largely alone - particularly on Syria.

So when Russia was hosting the Winter Olympics in February 2014 Saudi Arabia dispatched Islamist terrorists to attack the event. Despite twin bombings suicide bombings in Volgograd in December 2013 that killed 34 this plan was stopped at the very last minute.

By way of an apology for stopping Saudi Arabia's attacks on the Winter Olympics the US instructed Nazi extremists to overthrow the democratically elected government on Russia's neighbour Ukraine effectively turning the nation into ISIL's northern or Shamali Province.

Despite the US' unbridled aggression in Ukraine this coup led to Russia being placed under international sanctions. The hope being that the effect these sanctions would have on Russia's economy would cause it to drop its support for international law and allow Saudi Arabia's domination of MENA to continue unabated.

One particular incident that provided excuse for more sanctions on Russia was Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

On July 17th 2014 (17/7/14) this was negligently flown over eastern Ukraine where it was shot down. An 18 month investigation has not been able to determine if it was shot down by the US-backed Nazis or the ethnically Russian rebels who are trying to prevent themselves being ethnically cleansed by said Nazis.

The sanctions imposed over Shamali Province have had an extremely negative impact of the Russian economy with GDP growth shrinking by around 4% and the Rouble losing around 10% of it's value. As always these tough times have led to ordinary Russians cutting back on luxury spending such as foreign holidays.

One of the main destinations for Russian holiday makers has long been the Red Sea resorts in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

As such I've long wondered whether the secondary objective of the US' Shamali Province plan was to strengthen ISIL's Egyptian arm - Sinai Province as it calls itself - against the Egyptian government by weakening the Egyptian tourism industry to facilitate an ISIL takeover of Egypt or whether the US was just being as hopelessly naive a usual.

The fall in Russians taking foreign and even domestic holidays has also hit the Russian airline industry hard. Just on October 1st (1/10/15) Russia's second largest airline - Transaero - filed for bankruptcy. It is in these sort of tough economic conditions that airlines can be tempted to save money by cutting back on things like maintenance and safety checks just to stay in business.

As such the first thing that will have to be ruled out in the investigation into the crash of 7K9268 is mechanical failure. I don't feel that I am knowledgeable enough about aircraft design to speculate on what type of mechanical failure could be responsible.

However even I know that engine failure is unlikely. Passenger aircraft - particularly high quality ones such as the Airbus A321 involved here - are designed to cope with engine failure. Even in the extremely unlikely event that both engines fail simultaneously the A321 can glide for a period of around 25 minutes without power to make a safe albeit rough landing.

Prior to crashing 7K9269 descended around 1500 metres (5000ft) in less then a minute. This is far too fast a rate of descent for an aircraft that had experienced two let alone a single engine failure. However I should point out that in situations like this the skill of the pilot is a major factor and even the best trained can panic.

Given the rapid rate of descent a much more likely technical failure scenario is one where something vital such as a wing or a tail-plane suddenly snaps off.

However this is not the sort of thing that can be really affected by a poor maintenance regime because with aircraft come out of the factory with those sort of things already attached with the intention they will stay attached for the lifetime of the aircraft.

This particular aircraft was in the middle of it's life too early for old age to be a factor and too late for a manufacturing error to suddenly appear.

Based on the debris which sees the aircraft in two main sections spread across roughly 20km^2 ( 8 miles^2) it would appear that the aircraft split apart in mid-air. However in my completely inexpert opinion such a narrow debris field would suggest that the aircraft was in trouble before it split apart.

Therefore the second thing the investigation will have to rule out is whether an explosion occurred onboard. I should state quite clearly though that an explosion does not automatically mean a bomb. In fact the entire principle of powered flight is dependent on small explosions constantly going off in an aircraft's engines.

Back on September 9th (9/9/15) the engine of a British Airway's jet exploded on the runway at Las Vegas' McCarren International Airport in the US. Just on Thursday (30/10/15) the engine of a Dynamic International Airways caught fire in similar fashion at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport in Florida, US.

With these incidents occurring on the ground they were spectacular but posed no real risk to passenger safety. However if they'd occurred at the cruising altitude of 7K9268 of around 9400m (31,000ft) they'd be much more serious particularly if they went on to trigger an explosion in the aircraft's fuel tanks.

It must be said that the possibility of a bomb seems remote because even a small explosion would cause the aircraft to violently decompress tearing the airframe apart.

However it is possible that a small explosion in a less pressurised area such as the cargo hold would only weaken the airframe before eventually causing it to split apart. An attempt to equalise the air-pressures following this type of small explosion could explain the rapid descent.

Unfortunately Egypt's security screening of both passengers and cargo is not a stringent as it is in the EU or the US creating the possibility that a bomb was smuggled aboard.

If it is a bomb the complexity of the device along with the conspiracy needed to smuggle it aboard points to the actions of a nation state rather then a terrorist group. The likely suspect is Saudi Arabia in order to punish Russia for it's military action in Syria.

Such an act would also cause the issues I've mentioned above to be called into sharp focus at the Manama Dialogue that was taking place in Bahrain that day.

The Saudis would be particularly interested in MH17 because now the Dutch Safety Board report has highlighted that any criminal prosecution will first have to address the negligent operation of the aircraft desire for such a prosecution seems to have disappeared. Saudi Arabia is not the sort of country to understand these principles of justice and legal due process.

One thing the investigation can immediately rule out is ISIL's claim that they shot down the aircraft. Although there is conflict in the Sinai it is very different to the conflict that led to MH17 being shot down.

If they have access to any anti-aircraft missiles ISIL only have access to Stinger-type Man Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADs.)  Designed to shoot down helicopter gunships hese only have a range of around 3700 metres (12,000ft) so can only be used to target passenger jets on take-off or landing.

The much bigger type of missile needed to strike a jet at 9,400 metres (31,000ft) such as the BUK or the S-300 are so large that they need to be transported by a truck sized launcher and can only be fired from that launcher. This is the type of thing you would notice being driven across the Sinai desert or on a bridge across the Suez canal.

Also these type of weapons are specifically designed to bring down aircraft. As we've seen from MH17 they do this very efficiently by peppering the target with thousands of metal flechettes that cause the airframe to immediately and completely disintegrate.

Based on the debris feild this clearly did not happen to 7K9268.

18:45 on 1/11/15 (UK date).