Today US President Barack Obama has finally returned to the Washington D.C. Later today he is expected to meet with French President Francois Hollande to discuss the massacres that took place in Paris, France on November 13th (13/11/15).
However even before that meeting takes place we have got to see the consequences of Obama's refusal to meet earlier and call a Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
Rather then standing by his allies Obama instead chose to travel to Turkey to meet with Turkish President/Prime Minister/ Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
With two of the Paris attackers entering Europe on forged Syrian passports and Erdogan frequently threatening to use the refugee route as a way to attack the European Union (EU) he is rightly considered the prime suspect in the Paris massacres.
If simply being prepared to be in the same room as Erdogan was not bad enough Obama seems to have used the meeting to give Turkey permission to go ahead with plans to invade northern Syria in mid-December.
Although most of Syria's problems stem from Erdogan's desire to invade to establish an Islamic State that stretches from Bulgaria to Egypt of which he is Emperor this particular hair-brained scheme had it's roots in the events surrounding the Syrian town of Marea in early August.
Marea is a strategically important town that sits around 30km (20 miles) north of the Syrian city of Aleppo and around 20km (13 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
Up until early August it was being occupied by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. The main parts of this coalition are the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML).
Then on August 9th (9/8/15) Erdogan very publicly ordered the FML to withdraw the entire JAF coalition from the town. This was intended to allow the Islamic State or Iraq and Levant (ISIL) to move into the town which henceforth became known as "Erdogan's Pocket."
The intention of gifting ISIL positions so close to the Turkish border was to create a panic that would provide a pretext for the Turkish invasion.
With hundreds of people giving their lives over many months to cut ISIL's supply lines by establishing a buffer-zone between them and Turkey this is simply unacceptable.
Unacceptable that is to everyone accept Obama. He still does not see a problem with Turkey's support for ISIL.
So since the November 15th (15/11/15) meeting with Erdogan US aircraft - operating as part of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - have been providing close air-support to the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) in an effort to seize Marea.
The intention being that the STB who are based in Turkey and trained by Turkish Special Forces will act as the bridge-head for the Turkish invasion to re-establish ISIL's supply lines.
Due to Obama's refusal to employ peaceful, diplomatic means and simply tell Erdogan "No" this has forced Russia to seek a military solution to the problem.
Since that November 15th (15/11/15) meeting Russia has concentrated it's efforts on dislodging the STB from positions they hold in the mountains of Latakia province. This effort has included the firing of nuclear capable cruise-type missiles from the Mediterranean.
At the risk of going off on a bit of a tangent on Saturday (21/11/15) a series of explosions knocked out power to Russia's Crimea Peninsula from where these cruise-type missiles will be re-supplied. As such my assessment of Ukraine as ISIL's "Shamali Province" was well founded.
If Shamali Province continues to act in support of ISIL it poses very serious questions about whether the international community can continue to support it. After all there are United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions expressly forbidding it.
The primary reason why Russia is targeting STB positions in the Latakia mountains is that they pose an immediate threat to Russian forces operating out of Latakia province. Just today two Russian civilians were wounded by STB artillery fire.
However once the STB have been cleared from Latakia mountains - and nobody seems to be doubting that they will - it's likely that Russia will then focus on STB positions around Marea. Once both they and ISIL have been removed from the area Erdogan's pocket will have been sealed and the pre-text for invasion will cease to exist.
So today Turkey - a member of CJTFOIR - claimed that a Russian Su-24 violated it's airspace close to the Latakia mountains.
On October 20th (20/10/15) CJTFOIR signed what is known as a "Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)" with Russia. Designed specifically to prevent exactly this type of incident this lays out hailing frequencies, languages used etc along with a hotline between the respective command centres so Russian and CJTFOIR aircraft can avoid each other.
Turkey completely ignored this procedure and immediately shot down the Russian aircraft. One of the pilots has been confirmed killed and the other is believed killed but may have been captured by terrorist forces.
The information that Turkey itself has provided makes completely clear that both the shooting down and the eventual crash site both occurred at least 10km (6 miles) within Turkish territory.
This Turkish violation of Syrian airspace is an extremely alarming development. Military at least Russia's response is both well established under international law and well practised.
As the vastly superior force Russia will now simply remove Turkey's ability to conduct such acts of aggression in the future. The primary target is likely to be Incirlik airbase. I personally would go nuclear just to make sure that I wouldn't have to repeat myself.
The problem is that the US has troops located at Incirlik. In Obama leaves them in position then there is no-one but him to blame when they return in bodybags.
13:00 on 24/11/15 (UK date).
Edited at around 17:45 on 24/11/15 (UK date) to add;
Video has now emerged showing STB firing on the two Russian pilots as they ejected from the aircraft and parachuted to the ground. I cannot overstate the extent to which this is beyond the bounds of international law and a war crime. After all the mere presence of the STB is a war crime.
Prior to this video emerging Russia dispatched helicopters to rescue the downed pilots. The STB proceeded to shoot down one of those rescue helicopters. The fate of that aircrew is not known.
Even after the video of the Russian pilots being murdered Turkey claimed that one of the pilots was still alive. This seems like an intentional ruse initially to trick Russia into sending in more rescue helicopters for the STB to shoot down.
There also seems to be a Turkish intention to use Russian hostages as human shields to prevent the STB being blasted from the pages of history. Again this is a grave war crime.
Also today two bombs exploded in the city of Arish on Egypt's Sinai Peninsula killing three and injuring twelve. The target of the bombs seem to be the Swiss Inn hotel where Egyptian election observers were staying.
This potentially puts Turkey's attacks on Russia in a worrying new light.
It is well established that Turkey has been directing the Muslim Brotherhood to conduct attacks to destabilise Egypt. The four fingered salute and the black & yellow colour scheme of the Brotherhood "Rabaa" protest movement are considered signatures of the Turkish state.
Although they might not realise it when Muslims - or even simply lefty-liberals - in the US or Europe march under this banner they are acting as the agents of a foreign power. They should expect to be treated as such.
However up until now the Turkish backed Rabaa protesters have remained separate from the Supporters of the Holy House/Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM) who operate in the northern Sinai and now refer to themselves as ISIL's "Sinai Province."
Therefore even if this is not a deliberate act by Turkish intelligence intended to coincide with the attacks on Russia it certainly suggest that Rabaa and ABM are moving so close together they can overhear each others rumours. After all the Rabaa Mosque is an example of a Holy House although not the one ABM normally refer to.
That said it might just be a coincidence. Egypt is currently in the midst of an election that both Rabaa and ABM are opposed to.
Neither I nor many Egyptian voters have been bothered to participate in this because we all understand that Erdogan is an anti-democratic force. Therefore as within the Israel/Palestine conflict he is a barrier in the way of progress rather then the solution.
One thing that makes me suspicious that the Arish bombings were not coincidental is that today there has also been a bomb attack in the Tunisian capital Tunis. This targeted a bus carrying members of the Presidential guard. Although details are still emerging it appears that 11 people have been killed.
The Tunisian flag is remarkably similar to the Turkish flag. Also where I said above that Erdogan wishes to be Emperor/Sultan of an Islamic State that stretches all the way to Egypt I was being charitable. There is certainly no guarantee that he will stop at Egypt's border with Libya, Libya's border with Tunisia or Tunisia's border with Algeria.
In fact the medieval "Levant" region from which ISIL take their name is directly adjacent to the "Maghreb" which stretches all the way across north Africa to the Atlantic Ocean.
That said though just yesterday I was writing a security assessment of how to transport COP21 delegates from hotels like the one attacked in Bamako, Mali on November 20th (20/11/15) to venues like those attacked in Paris, France on November 13th (13/11/15) in shuttle buses like the one attacked in Tunis today.
While I will continue to examine this latest attack my plan was devised under the assumption that the buses could be attacked. Therefore as this is not a new threat my assessment is unlikely to change.
Prior to writing the above I was familiar with Turkey's claim that the Russian aircraft had crossed into Turkish airspace and was warned 10 times over the course of 5 minutes before being shot down within Syrian airspace. However I immediately dismissed it as a blatant lie.
The area of airspace that Turkey claimed was violated is only 5km (3 miles) across at it's widest point. The Su-24 aircraft travels at a speed of around 1000km/h (600 miles/h). Therefore the maximum amount of time it could have spent in Turkish airspace is 3 minutes not 5. Travelling at that sort of speed 2 minutes is an absolute eternity.
However if you've ever given a speech or appeared on live TV you would know that 3 minutes is still enough time to repeat a simple sentence 10 times.
Under then MOU Turkey had to have issued these warnings on the designated frequency. Obviously you don't want the terrorist groups using this frequency so it is a closely guarded military secretly. I don't want to know what it is unless someone who shouldn't know it is talking about it.
Also under the MOU Turkey had to have issued these warnings in the designated language. I do not know what this language is but given the Cold War games in the north Atlantic and the superiority of the Russian education system I suspect that it is English.
If those criteria were not met then Turkey may as well have tattooed it's warnings on Erdogan's inner thigh for all the good the would have done.
Over the past - nearly now - five years Erdogan has frequently issued lies this blatant and they've been reported as fact by news agencies across the World. Therefore - particularly with the support of Obama - he probably saw no reason why this blatant lie wouldn't also be reported as fact.
However after the Paris massacres I starting to get the impression that people - particularly in France and Belgium - are getting sick and tired of being lied to about the conflict in Syria.
Therefore there is a possibility that post-Paris Turkey put out such a blatant lie to see whether it would be reported as fact or whether just basic journalistic standards would be applied.
It seems that even prior to today's events the US is conducting it's own fact check on news outlets in the form of a non-fatal shooting at a Black Lives Matter (BLM) protest in Obama's adopted home city of Chicago.
Unfortunately due to Obama's inability to turn up to a press conference on time I'm going to have to tease w/ that now and complete after dinner.
Edited again at around 20:20 on 24/11/15 (UK date) to add;
Even if you are not familiar with the name "Jamar Clark" you are certainly familiar with the story. It's the same story that's been told time and time again since August 9th 2014 (9/8/14);
- Step 1: Young black man commits crime. In this case theft of/from motor vehicles.
- Step 2: Police respond catching black criminal in act.
- Step 3: In an effort to evade justice black criminal attacks police. In this case with a knife.
- Step 4: Black criminal is lawfully shot and killed.
- Step 5: Under the guise of "Black Lives Matter" Obama's boot boys take to the streets and threaten rioting and murder unless the officer is lynched and the black criminal's family is given a large check.
- Step 6: In fear or in this case loyalty to the Democrat Party the city hands over said large check. USD5million apparently.
- Step 7: In fear or loyalty the city disregards the hard won protections of the US Constitution - particularly the 5th amendment - and agrees to lynch the police officer without even a Grand Jury indictment.
- Option A: They could report the incident in the usual fashion of screaming; "RAAAACCCCIISSSSTTTT! VOTE DEMOCRAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
- Option B: Simply tell the truth. In a desperate effort to secure a Democrat victory at the 2014 mid-term elections and a Hillary Clinton victory at the 2016 Presidential elections the Obama White House has systematically played the race card and disregarded the law of the land at every opportunity. This has taken the US to the brink of a race war. The Charleston shooting was the first warning sign - it was ignored.
If Obama chooses to continue to support Turkey in it's war against Syria then he is choosing to act in violation of UNSCR 20170 (2014) and in the process commit treason against the US by providing direct or indirect support to Al Qaeda.
If that is Obama's will then he simply cannot continue as President of a nation he has declared war on.
In that event how the media reacts will be of vital importance.
If they continue with the cult of personality - "Doing an Al Jazeera" as I believe it's known - then there is the potential for widespread unrest and bloodshed.
However if they decide to simply tell the truth the transition should be relatively smooth
Away from that it's been confirmed that the STB did indeed fire on a Russian rescue helicopter with US made TOW missile. This brought the aircraft down killing one Marine on board. However being Marines a second helicopter quickly moved in to successfully recover all of the aircrew and destroy the aircraft.
As a result it's just the 3 counts of murder Erdogan's looking at today.
Also I should point out that there is quite a bit of discussion about how to refer to the 13/11/15 attacks in Paris.
In an effort to minimise it the US media are going with; "Paris Attacks."
I am going with "Paris Massacres" because if you're drawing up a security plan there is a world of difference between those who will take hostages and try to negotiate and those who will simply try to murder as many people as possible.
However across Europe they are being referred to as; "Black Friday."
Therefore I advise Americans to think carefully about their Thanksgiving plans. They can either spend the day slicing up Turkeys or rabidly showing their support for Black Friday.
Alternatively they could just do an Obama and have a bit of a jolly.
20:55 on 24/11/15 (UK date).
No comments:
Post a Comment