Cameron Rejects Syria Air-Strikes.

Here in the UK politicians are currently tearing themselves apart over Prime Minister David Cameron's plan to seek permission to conduct air-strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria.

For people familiar with the conflict this entire argument seems deeply surreal.

The current situation is that British aircraft from the Royal Air Force (RAF) take off from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and fly over Syria for a bit before returning to base. However they are not allowed to conduct air-strikes in Syria because they lack permission from Parliament.

If Parliament were to give that permission then RAF aircraft would take off from Cyprus and fly over Syria for a bit before returning to base. However they would not be allowed to conduct air-strikes because they lack permission from Turkey.

Unless the UK is prepared to challenge that status quo this Parliamentary vote is nothing more then a symbolic gesture. It could even make the situation worse by reinforcing that status quo.

As I've said before there are numerous diplomatic means the UK could use to alter that status quo.

For example it could use it's membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to make sure that organisations Article 5 mutual defence clause is invoked. As a NATO member this would make clear to Turkey that fighting ISIL is not optional and it can't impose conditions preventing other NATO members from defeating them.

The UK could also use its seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) - the UK was actually President of the UNSC throughout November - to re-affirm UNSC resolution 2170 (2014) by condemning Turkey's attacks on anti-ISIL forces in both Syria and Iraq.

Again this would make clear to Turkey that fighting ISIL is not optional and it cannot provide support to the group by attacking groups who are fighting ISIL.

On Sunday (29/11/15) another diplomatic opportunity presented itself with Turkey requesting a summit with the European Union (EU) over the crisis of the refugees fleeing Syria.

Listening to Turkey express concern for these refugees is something of a sick joke. After all by continually supporting ISIL and blocking all attempts to defeat them Turkey is the main driving force creating these refugees.

Turkey also seems to view the refugees as nothing more then a bargaining chip is can use to get the international community - particularly the EU - to do as it pleases.

For example in October 21st (21/10/15) a group of refugees landed on RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. With them being able to penetrate a military base from where anti-ISIL missions are being flown this seemed to Turkey gesturing it's intent to attack forces - even NATO members - fighting ISIL.

Then of course there is the Paris Massacres of November 13th (13/11/15). It is well established that two of the attackers entered the EU disguised as refugees. It remains to be confirmed whether the Turkish state assisted them in this effort.

It is these threats and the ease with which the international community is intimidated by them that gave Turkey the confidence to invade Syrian air-space to shoot down a Russia jet last Tuesday (24/11/15). The thinking being that - as it has done before - the international community would ignore all facts and back Turkey to the hilt imposing sanctions against Russia.

Therefore the logical thing for the Cameron to do would be to reject this summit. Instead he would announce that the assistance that Turkey was seeking would go to Lebanon and Jordan who per capita have taken in far more refugees than Turkey with none of the militancy.

Failing that you would expect Cameron and the other EU leaders to extract a very high price from Turkey in return for any assistance.

For example Turkey would have to immediately stop the flow of ISIL fighters in and out of Syria and immediate cease its aggression towards its neighbours. Turkey's continuing military occupation of northern Cyprus could also have been on the table.

Instead though Cameron and the EU simply caved in and gave Turkey everything they wanted. This includes USD3.5bn in cash, speeding up Turkey's membership of the EU which has long been blocked by the occupation of Cyprus and visa-free travel from Turkey to the EU.

This last concession seems particularly insane because the steady flow of refugees and terrorists from Turkey is already forcing many EU countries to re-introduce border controls restricting the movement of EU citizens. Just the day before (28/11/15) Russia announced that it was scrapping a similar arrangement with Turkey citing security concerns.

In return for all this Cameron and the EU has received absolutely nothing. They even went to far as to re-affirm Turkey's 'right' opt out from the fight against ISIL and its 'right' to attack anti-ISIL forces by framing the discussion of security in terms of UNSC statement 2249 rather then the UNSC resolution 2170 that applies.

So unless I see something dramatic in the wording of the motion presented to Parliament it seems clear that Prime Minister Cameron has already rejected the notion of fighting and defeating ISIL. As such he cannot expect to be granted permission to bomb Syria.

I suppose though it's still an improvement on 2013 when Cameron wanted to go and fight for ISIL.

12:20 on 30/11/15 (UK date).