Operation Featherweight: Month 16, Week 5, Day 1.

As I am really busy with preparations for the COP21 Summit this is really just intended as a quick note following up from the events of yesterday.

As we all know Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft. Publicly Turkey claimed this the aircraft had violated Turkish air-space for five minutes and was warned to leave ten times before being shot down.

At the time that Turkey was making these public statements is was sending letters to both the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). These letters told a very different version of events.

In fact the Russian aircraft only entered Turkish air-space for a maximum of 17 seconds. It was not engaged with whilst in Turkish air-space. Instead Turkish aircraft violated Syrian air-space to shoot down the Russia aircraft whilst it was firmly within Syrian air-space and heading away from Turkey towards the Mediterranean Sea.

The reason why Turkey didn't bother try and sell their 5 minute story to either the UNSC or NATO is because Turkey knew they would check. That is exactly what they did and the 17 second story and the Turkish violation of Syrian air-space have both been verified.

Today Turkey has publicly released an audio recording that it claims shows it issuing a warning to the Russian aircraft. There are two things that make me doubt the validity of that recording. The first of these is that it so neatly fitted the criteria for a warning that I laid out yesterday it seems almost to have been created as a response.

Secondly it was not released by any official source. Instead it was released by a Turkish news channel who had incorporated it into a video montage which suggests it was taken from a video recording from inside of the Russian aircraft. The montage began with footage of the burning jet accompanied by Islamic music and cries of "Alluh Akbar!" (God is Great).

Therefore I would wait for independent verification of that recording before reporting it as fact.

However assuming that the recording is genuine the warning issued in it lasts for 15 seconds. Turkey claims that this warning was issued 10 times in the 17 seconds that the aircraft was in Turkish air-space. Again this is simply impossible.

Whether or not a warning was issued or received isn't really the issue.

While Turkey would have authority to shoot down an aircraft within it's air-space that was not complying with instruction they most certainly do not have the right to pursue that aircraft and shoot it down after it has left Turkish air-space. This is doubly true if the aircraft has returned into the sovereign air-space of a another nation as has happened here.

The fact that Turkey invaded Syrian air-space to shoot down the Russia aircraft is not even being disputed by the Turks themselves.

Today a newspaper closely linked to Turkey's governing Justice & Development Party (AKP) made it quite clear how they view the incident. They published a cartoon showing a Turkish fist looming over Syria's Latakia mountains punching down a Russia jet that had been bombing Turkish backed terrorists.

Despite there being unanimous confirmation that Turkey has committed at least one war crime the international response has been rather muted. Although there has not been the condemnation of Russia that Turkey was hoping for there have just been general calls for all parties to de-escalate the situation.

Clearly neither party has been listening. For it's part Russia has moved sea and land based air-defence systems into the area so if Turkey repeats it's violations of Syrian territory it can be stopped.

The response of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been even more extreme. This morning he gave an extremely bellicose speech in which he spoke of Turkey's right to attack anyone it likes. He went on the repeat the 5 minute claim despite it being well established that it is a lie.

This afternoon Turkey has begun moving large numbers of tanks up to it's border with Syria. It has also sent helicopters into Syrian air-space to buzz Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) forces. The purpose seemed to be to send the message that Turkey is going to invade any day to rid the area of forces who dare to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

This evening Turkish aircraft invaded Iraq's air-space to bomb Kurdish positions there. The message seems to be quite clearly that Turkey is going to continue it's aggression towards it's neighbours until it is stopped.

A possible explanation for Erdogan's escalation of tensions is that last night US President Obama once again made the mistake of telephoning him directly. Although Obama may have used the words; "Do not escalate the situation" what Erdogan clearly heard was; "Attack anyone you like, I've got your back my brother!"

Therefore this is clearly not a situation where if we all close our eyes, stick our fingers in our ears and pretend it is not happening - as Obama is prone to do - it will all just go away. Sadly it also seems that the usual subtle hints are not capable of penetrating the thickness of Erdogan's skull.

As such there needs to be international action to resolve the situation.

One possible option would be to convene that long over due NATO Summit. That could be used to invoke Article 5 over the Paris Massacred and make quite clear to Erdogan Russian action in response to Turkish aggression would not be viewed as an Article 5 issue. Therefore if Turkey fights it fights alone.

The meeting could even go further and suspend Turkey's NATO membership.

Alternatively or in conjunction with the UNSC could take up the issue.

Action from that body over Turkey's attacks on Iraq is particularly overdue. Turkey is justifying these under Article 51 of Chapter 7. However as I said at the time Article 51 only applies until the UNSC takes action. Here the UNSC has already taken action in the form of resolution 2170.

Therefore Turkey's actions in Iraq have no legal basis and may even be in violation of 2170 by providing indirect support to ISIL.

A statement to that effect from the UNSC should make it clear to Turkey that if it's aggression continues it will not only be out of NATO it will actually be at war with NATO and the entire international community.

Tomorrow French President Francois Hollande is making a pre-arranged trip to Russia. Once that is over the international community is really going to have to kick things up a gear.

20:40 on 25/11/15 (UK date).