For much of last week from Baghdad to the shores of the Mediterranean the normally desert middle-east region has been deluged with torrential rain and flash flooding.
I'm taking that as a sign that I should focus on this climate change issue. After all it might not be the most immediate threat but it's certainly the biggest.
However on Friday (30/10/15) the US announced that it is sending up to 50 Special Forces operators - likely Green Berets - to assist the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the buffer-zone they have established in northern Syria between the Turkish border and the heartland of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) along the Euphrates River.
This has led to some discussion as to whether US President Barack Obama has broken his "No Boots on the Ground" promise to the American people and whether this constitutes mission creep.
On that first question I should point out that they are Special Forces. These types of unit were really devised to go to places where officially a nation's armed forces are not allowed to operate. As such they're not really covered by the normal restrictions that are placed on conventional forces. Therefore while Obama has gone right up to the line I don't think he has quite broken his promise.
However this is a situation that needs to be monitored very closely because it certainly is mission creep. I'm particularly worried that Obama seems to be repeating the mistakes of Iraq.
Here numerous Special Forces and some conventional forces have been deployed effectively as a blocking tactic. Officially their mission has been to train Iraqi troops but in reality they seem more interested in finding excuses why the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) can't liberate Iraq from ISIL.
The deployment of Special Forces to Iraq seems to be following the same plan.
Since entering the fight against ISIL at the end of September Russia has been very keen to conduct air operations on their heartland but have been blocked by the sort of protective dome the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - have been providing to ISIL. Russia has also reached out to the SDF with a view to providing them with the equipment and close air support that CJTFOIR have been refusing to provide.
As such Obama's decision to deploy Special Forces to Syria seems to be a delaying tactic to prevent Russian air-strikes on ISIL for fear of hitting US forces and to prevent the SDF from receiving support from Russia.
It is not appropriate for Obama to put US lives - even Special Forces operators - on the line simply because he cannot make a decision of what to do next.
Even before the US Special Forces have deployed the SDF continues to resist attacks across the borders of the buffer-zone.
In the south-west on the banks of the Euphrates ISIL fired rockets against the town of Shiukh on Wednesday (28/10/15). On the same day ISIL fired rockets against the village of Ain Issa which sits just 50km (30 miles) north of Raqqa, ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
ISIL's main efforts currently seem to be focused on the areas around Hasakah city on the south-east of the buffer-zone close to the border with Iraq. On Tuesday (27/10/15) they launched a ground attack on the town of Tel Hamees which sits around 60km (35 miles) north-east of Hasakah city. ISIL also launched a ground attack against the village of Maqluja which sits on the outskirts of Hasakah city.
These attacks prompted the SDF to launch - on Friday (30/10/15) - their first combined operation after they were formed out of the Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG/J), fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the Syriac Military Council (MFS) and the local Arab, al-Sanadid tribe on October 16th (16/10/15).
The purpose of the operation seems to be to drive ISIL back from both Hasakah city and Tel Hamees by clearing them from an area they hold along the border with Iraq centred around the villages of Al-Hol and Al-Ghazayleh. As of today the SDF seem to have succeeded in surrounding Al-Hol.
Turkey's response to this SDF offensive against ISIL has been to attack the SDF. At around 1AM (local) on Sunday (1/11/15) Turkish artillery launched an hour long barrage against SDF positions in the strategically important town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi which sits directly on the Turkey/Syria border.
At around 18:30 (local) Turkish artillery again opened fire on SDF positions in the area. This barrage lasted almost 8 hours until 2AM (local) on Monday (2/11/15) morning.
Despite Turkey's willingness to attack US allies in areas where US Special Forces are operating the US still seems prepared to continue as a member of CJTFOIR and conduct operations alongside it.
On Saturday (31/10/15) Turkish and US aircraft carried out more the a dozen air-strikes against ISIL positions close between the town of Azaz and the Turkish border.
This operation which represents the largest CJTFOIR operation against ISIL in Syria since Turkey became a member was intended to provide close air-support to allow Turkmen forces to overrun the ISIL positions.
People who have been following this conflict for a while will find that highly amusing.
Back during the Battle of Kobane Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded that Kurdish forces would have form an alliances with Arab forces before he would permit CJTFOIR to assist them. Now the Arab/Kurdish alliance has been formed in the form of the SDF Erdogan now seems to view both Kurds and Arabs as illegitimate and is demanding that CJTFOIR may only support Turkmen.
Pretty soon Erdogan is going to run out of ethnic groups and be forced to admit that his favoured force are ISIL.
The timing of this joint US/Turkish raid was particularly questionable because it occurred the day before Turkey's General Election effectively becoming part of the campaign of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). The AKP went on to win that election consolidating Erdogan's grip on power.
Now the option of the Turkish people gently sidelining Erdogan from power has passed US President Obama only has the big levers left to moderate Erdogan's despotic and expansionist tendencies which are allowing ISIL to thrive.
On October 17th (17/10/15) I commented that Russia's decision to join the fight against ISIL had caused me to re-think my longstanding objections to the UK conducting air-strikes in Syria.
It appears that the UK government has also had a change of heart with the news today that it is not going to call a vote on action in Syria because of a lack of support.
This rather validates my original objection that the UK - particularly the governing Conservative Party - did not wish to conduct air-strikes in Syria. Instead they merely wished to use that as an excuse to launch wholly illegal air-strikes against the Syrian government in an effort to support ISIL.
This is something the Conservatives first attempted back in 2013 where they tried to use the Sarin gas attack on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta as a pre-text to provide ISIL with air-support.
Towards the end of last week the credibility of the insurgents occupying Ghouta - the supposed victims of the Sarin attack - took a substantial knock. It was revealed that they have taken to placing members of the Alawite Muslim minority they'd taken hostage in cages and placing those cages of the roofs of buildings they use to plan their attacks.
The use of civilians - or even combatants - as human shields in this way is a clear war crime and may even constitute a crime against humanity. However despite the story being all over the Internet for the past 5 days it is only today that western media outlets have touched on the story and even that was only in passing.
The oft repeated claim that Russia is targeting moderate rebel groups that are entirely separate from ISIL rather then ISIL was also significantly undermined over the weekend with ISIL capturing of the village of Atshan in Homs province from the Syrian government.
For many months a very delicate ceasefire has existed in Atshan between the Syrian government and the Al Qaeda led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. In return for JAF not attacking Syrian government forces or trying to capture the surrounding villages Syrian government forces have allowed JAF hold onto the village.
This changed on Saturday (31/10/15) when JAF pledged their alligence to ISIL and welcomed them into Atshan without a shot being fired.
ISIL are now threatening the majority Christian village of Sukayk just 5km (3 miles) to the north-west.
18:10 on 3/11/15 (UK date).
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