Anyone For Paranoia?

On October 31st (31/10/15) a terrorist bomb brought down a Russian passenger jet over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula killing 224 civilians.

Fourteen days later on November 13th (13/11/15) terrorists attacked multiple targets across Paris, the capital city of France killing 130 civilians.

Seven days later on November 20th (20/11/15) terrorists attacked a hotel in Bamako, the capital of Mali killing 22 civilians.

Four days later on November 24th (24/11/15) terrorists attack in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia killing 12.

A very quick analysis of these attacks reveals a pattern with the gap between the attacks halving every time. If that pattern were to continue then the next attack would take place either yesterday (26/11/15) or today (27/11/15)

So when US President Barack Obama stood up on Wednesday (25/11/15) and announced that there was no indication of an imminent terrorist threat no-one in intelligence circles heard what Obama said next because it was drowned out by the noise of their collective jaws dropping to the floor in disbelief.

In fact many responded by circulating photographs of Obama at the White House Turkey Pardon that was held later that day. The photographs show Obama standing there seemingly completely oblivious to the giant Turkey right under his nose.

The White House itself has taken to circulating similar photographs itself in an effort to find out what everybody else was laughing at.

It is in this context that yesterday authorities in Brussels, Belgium announced that a suspicious white powder - suspected of being anthrax - had been found at the cities Grand Mosque. It was later found to be harmless. Annoyingly this is one of those things that I cannot discuss in too much detail.

However I feel I should reassure people that this was simply spies mucking about rather then another terrorist attack or an anti-Muslim hate crime in response to all the terrorist attacks.

The main focus of the stunt seemed to be an attempt to muscle in on French President Francois Hollande's visit that day with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It seemed to have been inspired by a proposal introduced before the Russian Parliament earlier that day to return the Hagia Sophia site in Turkey to the control of the Orthodox Christian religion.

Sitting in what is now known as Istanbul the Hagia Sophia was built as an Orthodox Christian Cathedral in 537. In 1453 the Ottoman Turkish Empire invaded Istanbul and ordered the Hagia Sophia to be turned into a Mosque. It remained as a Mosque until 1935 when it became a museum and a protected UNESCO site in 1985.

Although it has been attacked in Turkey as "Islamaphobic" the purpose of this Russian Parliamentary motion was to highlight Turkey's support for the April - June 2015 Northwestern Syria offensive which allowed the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to seize control of the ancient city of Palmyra which is also a protected UNESCO site.

ISIL have since set about destroying Palmyra. Therefore Russia's message was simply that Turkey clearly cannot be trusted to protect UNESCO sites.

As for Hollande's recent travels I should start by pointing out that two weeks ago France saw 130 of it's citizens murdered on the streets of it's capital.

Since then France has deployed 5,000 troops to the streets and suspended certain civil rights such as warrant-less searches. This is not something that a democracy does lightly.

On Monday (30/11/15) France will be hosting the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris. With more then 100 world leaders attending this was also going to be a stressful event. It now seems to be shaping up as a prime target for terrorist attack.

The response of Barack Obama - supposedly the President of one of France's oldest allies - has to been to almost completely blank Hollande. Rather then meeting with him Obama went off on what was effectively an 11 day holiday to Turkey and Malaysia.

Therefore when I say this I do so fully understanding the extreme pressure that Hollande has been placed under. As such I am saying it in an effort to be constructive rather then critical or insulting.

However it must be said that Hollande's efforts to be seen to be doing something through his little diplomatic tour has bordered on the extremely counter-productive.

For example there is the statement 2249 that France placed before the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) last Friday (20/11/15).

Precisely because it attempts to undermine the standing resolution 2170 this is nothing more then an empty gesture. However it muddied the diplomatic waters at precisely the time the fight against terror needs greater clarity.

The attempts to bring Russia into the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - is even more misguided.

The problem with CJTFOIR is that - particularly since Turkey joined the Air Tasking Order (ATO) - is that it is not fighting ISIL. Instead it is acting to protect ISIL.

For example the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - which include the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) - are coming under pretty much constant artillery fire from ISIL both on the banks of the Euphrates River and surrounding the village of Ain Issa.

Destroying this type of fixed, heavy firing position is exactly what air-support is designed to do. However day after day the attacks continue and there's not a CJTFOIR air-strike to be seen.

So the consequence of bringing Russia into CJTFOIR would be that nobody would be attacking ISIL.

16:45 on 27/11/15 (UK date).