At the time I laid out three possible scenarios involving the tail-plane breaking off, a technical fault causing the fuel tanks to explode or a terrorist bomb. I also said that before I could choose between either of these scenarios I needed more evidence.
I said this knowing that it can takes months, if not years, for such evidence to be gathered.
For example in the case of a bomb first you need to collect up every tiny fragment of the aircraft. You then need to swab each one of the fragments and run the swabs through a series of machines that will identify the chemical traces. The results of those tests then need to be interpreted by an expert.
How long this testing procedure takes really depends on how long it takes you to find all the fragments, how many machines you've got to run the tests and how many experts you've got to interpret the results.
Today Russia confirmed that they have not only found explosive residue on the fragments but enough residue to make an informed guess at the type and amount of explosive used. We cannot yet conclusively say that it was an act of terrorism but seems unlikely to have been an act of friendship.
It might seem like I'm half-assing it but everything I said about the bombing scenario remains as valid now as it does when I wrote it here;
- http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/the-crash-of-flight-7k9268.html
- http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/the-7k9268-dramatic-display-team.html
Obviously the western media - particularly in the US - still find it far too traumatic to talk about how the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are getting done. However I gather that Russia's response to today's development has been robust to say the least.
The biggest problem in the fight against ISIL in recent months has been Turkey's formal joining of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The condition that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded which US President Obama foolishly agreed to is that CJTFOIR was no longer allowed to conduct air-strikes in support of Kurdish-led forces.
As Kurdish-led forces are the only ground force fighting ISIL in Syria Erdogan's demand had the effect of establishing a vast aerial dome over ISIL heartland around Raqqa and the Euphrates River. For almost two and half months this dome has more or less succeeded in protecting ISIL's de facto capital from any form of aerial attack.
Having joined the fight on September 30th (30/9/15) Russia today didn't so much knock on the door of that protective dome as kicked it the f*ck in.
Although they stopped short of using every weapon in their arsenal Russia flew 65 missions against Raqqa today. 25 of these missions were conducted by Tu-95 (Bear), Tu-22 (Blinder) and Tu-160 (Blackjack) bombers. These are all long-range, strategic bombers that all flew from bases inside of Russia and carry massive bomb payloads.
The Tu-160 which is the equivalent of the US' B1-Lancer can carry 80,000kg (176,370 lbs) of conventional explosives. Although we will have to wait until tomorrow's press conference to confirm my understanding is that each aircraft delivered it's full payload to Raqqa.
Russia also fired 34 3M-54 Klub (NATO: "Sizzler") Cruise-type missile on Raqqa. Unlike on October 8th (8/10/15) these missiles were fired from Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea rather then the Caspian Sea.
As I said in October in order to re-supply ships in the Mediterranean Russia will have to send supply ships from it's ports in Crimea over the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus Strait which actually runs through the middle of the Turkish city of Istanbul.
Given his unwavering support for ISIL there is a concern that Erdogan will close that important shipping lane in order to prevent the Russian ships being re-supplied in order to further protect ISIL.
As such Russian President Vladimir Putin's message to Erdogan seems to be; "Come and Have a Go if You Think You're Hard Enough!"
We all wait with baited breath to see which way Obama will fall.
22:55 on 17/11/15 (UK date).
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